Symbiosis of monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union

We consider the interaction between the monetary policy in a monetary union, and the separate fiscal policies of the member countries. We use a Barro–Gordon-type model extended to many countries and fiscal policies. Each country’s fiscal policies inflict externalities on other countries, and the common monetary policy has its time-consistency problem. But if the two types of policymakers agree about the ideal levels of output and inflation, then this ideal is attained despite disagreements about the weights of the objectives, despite ex post monetary accommodation to fiscal profligacy, without fiscal coordination, without monetary commitment, and for any order of moves.     

MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE RUN‐UP TO THE EMU

We characterize central bank behavior in the euro area during the run‐up to the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) era by estimating Taylor rule‐type reaction functions at both the individual and aggregate level. We focus on whether national monetary policies during the run‐up to the EMU were responding to economic developments according to their own policy rules or to a broader, euro area‐wide, policy rule. To consider the last possibility we examine whether national monetary policies were responding to German interest rates. Finally, we compare the performance of the estimated with imposed policy rules.     

Is the unemployment–inflation trade-off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so

The unemployment–inflation trade-off can be interpreted as a proposition concerning the response of these two variables to aggregate demand shocks. In this paper, we study the possible presence of the trade-off in the Euro Area and in a wide group of Euro-area countries in the last 20 years, that is, since the start of EMU. We use the structural VAR methodology that allows the separation between supply and demand shocks. Our main finding is that the existence of a trade-off is largely confirmed both at the Euro Area and at the national level. Nevertheless, the size of the trade-off, measured at different horizons, shows some heterogeneity among countries. No less important, when we augment the VAR model by introducing monetary policy in the context of an open economy, we find that monetary policy shocks push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions in the currency area. Another interesting result concerns the evidence of a relatively flat relation between unemployment and inflation, conditionally to monetary policy shocks. The bulk of these conclusions seem to be confirmed by a number of robustness checks.     

The trilemma of a monetary union: Another impossible trinity

A monetary union among autonomous countries cannot simultaneously maintain an independent monetary policy, national fiscal sovereignty and a no-bailout clause. These three features make up an impossible trinity, and attempts to preserve all three concurrently will ultimately end in failure. In order to save EMU, one of these three must be abandoned.     

Managing an Economy Under EMU: The Case of Ireland

Ireland's experience of limited monetary independence within the EMS indicated that such independence was bought at the price of significant risk premia on interest rates. This experience informed its decision to join EMU, and membership has resulted in the expected credibility gain. Since the start of EMU inflation in consumer prices in Ireland has risen well above the EU average. However, this need not be a matter of concern within a monetary union. Instead, what should concern the Irish administration is a high rate of inflation in wage rates and domestic asset prices chiefly housing. While monetary policy is no longer available as an instrument of domestic policy, fiscal policy can still be used to effectively target these problems. The lessons of the first three years of membership is that the focus of fiscal policy within Ireland needs to change, and that the EU institutions also need to focus more clearly on the needs of the Euro area rather than on those of individual regional economies.     

Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union

We lay out a tractable model for the analysis of optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union. The monetary authority sets a common interest rate for the union, whereas fiscal policy is implemented at the country level, through the choice of government spending. In the presence of country-specific shocks and nominal rigidities, the policy mix that is optimal from the viewpoint of the union as a whole requires that inflation be stabilized at the union level by the common central bank, whereas fiscal policy has a country-specific stabilization role, one beyond the efficient provision of public goods.     

Demand-side stabilization policies: What is the evidence of their potential?

Using disaggregated data for the United States, this paper explores the effects of the variability of fiscal and monetary policy shocks. Higher variability of government spending shocks around a steady-state growth trend results in, on average, a decline in aggregate demand growth and inflation, with limited effects on output growth. On the other hand, higher variability of monetary shocks results in, on average, an increase in inflation and a decline in output growth. These results indicate the desirability of avoiding large fluctuations over time in either government spending or the money supply.     

The output effect of fiscal consolidation plans

We show that the correct experiment to evaluate the effects of a fiscal adjustment is the simulation of a multi-year fiscal plan rather than of individual fiscal shocks. Simulation of fiscal plans adopted by 16 OECD countries over a 30-year period supports the hypothesis that the effects of consolidations depend on their design. Fiscal adjustments based upon spending cuts are much less costly, in terms of output losses, than tax-based ones and have especially low output costs when they consist of permanent rather than stop-and-go changes in taxes and spending. The difference between tax-based and spending-based adjustments appears not to be explained by accompanying policies, including monetary policy. It is mainly due to the different responses of business confidence and private investment.     

Fiscal policy,monetary policy and external imbalances: Cross-country evidence from Africa's three largest economies

This paper determines which of the three policy approaches: fiscal, monetary and exchange rate can better address external imbalances in the three largest African economies, Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt. To this end, use is made of the panel vector autoregressive model to assess the dynamic effects of shocks emanating from the three policy approaches. The findings of the paper indicate that unlike in many emerging and developed economies the current accounts of these three economies react to fiscal, monetary and exchange rate shocks. More particular, the results of the empirical analysis show that the appreciations of the currencies in the three economies lead to current account surpluses. This is mainly attributed to the fact that most African economies have a high propensity to import with limited productive capacity for exports.     

Fiscal and monetary rules for a currency union

This paper addresses the optimal joint conduct of fiscal and monetary policy in a two-country model of a currency union with staggered price setting and distortionary taxes. A tractable linear-quadratic approximation permits a representation of the optimal policy plan in terms of targeting rules. In the optimal equilibrium, monetary policy should achieve aggregate price stability following a flexible inflation targeting rule. Fiscal policy should stabilize idiosyncratic shocks allowing for permanent variations of government debt but should abstain from creating inflationary expectations at the union level. Simple policy rules can approximate the optimal commitment benchmark through a mix of strict inflation targeting and flexible budget rules. Conversely, the welfare costs of balanced budget rules are at least one order of magnitude higher than conventional estimates of the costs of business cycle fluctuactions.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union

This paper analyzes in detail the mechanisms behind fiscal stabilization policy and the role of policy commitment in a micro-founded New-Keynesian model of a two-country monetary union, which is hit by supply shocks. We also explore the determinants of the gains from fiscal stabilization. While monetary policy with identical union members is concerned with stabilizing the union-wide economy, fiscal policy aims at stabilizing inflation differences and the terms of trade. Besides exploring optimal policies, we also consider monetary and fiscal rules. We study these rules both under coordination and non-coordination by the fiscal authorities.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a micro-founded model of a monetary union

This paper analyzes in detail the mechanisms behind fiscal stabilization policy and the role of policy commitment in a micro-founded New-Keynesian model of a two-country monetary union, which is hit by supply shocks. We also explore the determinants of the gains from fiscal stabilization. While monetary policy with identical union members is concerned with stabilizing the union-wide economy, fiscal policy aims at stabilizing inflation differences and the terms of trade. Besides exploring optimal policies, we also consider monetary and fiscal rules. We study these rules both under coordination and non-coordination by the fiscal authorities.     

Book reviews

This paper analyzes how fiscal policies and credit constraints can affect the impact of macroeconomic volatility on long-run growth. The model by Aghion et al. (2005) is extended by allowing for governmental fiscal policy over the business cycle. The analysis shows that in an economy facing credit constraints, an increase in volatility will result in lower mean growth, and all the more the less financially developed and the more procyclical the fiscal policy is. The main implication is that in countries with lower degrees of financial development, countercyclical fiscal policies are particularly important in reducing the negative consequences of adverse aggregate shocks on firms' long-run investments. An empirical analysis is finally conducted using different groups of countries that confirm the theoretical predictions.     

Exchange rate versus inflation targeting: a theory of output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors

This paper develops a basic model for output fluctuations in traded and non-traded sectors under two alternative monetary policy regimes; exchange rate targeting (or monetary union) and inflation targeting. The conventional wisdom from one-sector models says that inflation targeting gives better output stabilization than exchange rate targeting when demand shocks occur, but the opposite when supply shocks occur. In a model with a traded and a non-traded sector, we show that the conventional wisdom holds for the non-traded sector. However, for the traded sector, we show that inflation targeting destabilizes output compared with exchange rate targeting when both supply and demand shocks occur. The only shocks where inflation targeting provides the better output stability for the traded sector are shocks to world market prices. The two-sector structure introduces new mechanisms that may turn around earlier results for aggregate production. For instance, a demand shock may induce higher aggregate output fluctuations with inflation targeting than with exchange rate targeting. Furthermore, a positive demand shock may prove to be contractionary under inflation targeting.     

中国积极财政政策与货币政策效力的比较——对蒙代尔—弗莱明模型的一个修正运用

运用一个修正的MF模型 ,对我国积极财政政策和货币政策的效力进行比较 ,得出在我国现行汇率制度安排下 ,积极财政政策的效果要优于货币政策。当前我国的经济政策应以财政政策为主 ,坚持积极的财政政策 ,淡化扩张性的货币政策。     

政策协调、产业结构升级及宏观经济效应分析

不同模式的宏观政策协调不但会对产业结构优化产生差异性影响,也会影响产业结构优化带来的宏观经济效应。本文在新凯恩斯框架下构建理论模型,并基于贝叶斯参数估计和数值模拟分析政策协调对产业结构优化以及宏观经济效应的影响。研究发现:数量型货币政策比价格型货币政策更有利于产业结构优化,收入型财政政策比支出型财政政策更有利于产业结构优化;价格型货币政策和收入型财政政策的政策协调更有利于产业结构优化对消费、就业和产出的促进作用,数量型货币政策和支出型财政政策的政策协调更有利于产业结构优化对通货膨胀的稳定作用;货币政策对产业结构优化升级这一目标与稳定经济波动这一目标存在着Trade Off现象,财政政策对产业结构优化升级这一目标与促进经济增长这一目标存在着Trade Off现象。因此,建议采取货币政策为主、财政政策为辅的宏观经济调控政策,具体操作体现在减息为主结合降低税率水平为辅的政策协调组合来应对经济增速下滑和产业结构升级。     

Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?

Responses of inflation and non‐oil output growth from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the US dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. A structural vector autoregression identified with short‐run restrictions was employed for each country with Fed funds rate as the US monetary policy instrument, non‐oil output growth and inflation. The main results suggest that for inflation, the GCC countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the US which are similar to inflation in the US, and for non‐oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can be as effective for the GCC countries as it is domestically. Consequently, importing US monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the GCC countries – not necessarily stable non‐oil output growth. If the non‐oil output response is made conscientiously – and there are concerns over the dollar’s ability to perform its role as a store of value – a basket peg with both the US dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short‐term interest rate.     

欧元区财政与货币政策非对称性搭配的经济效应分析——搭便车问题的蒙代尔—弗莱明模型分析

欧元启动后,欧盟统一的货币政策和相对分散的财政政策成为欧盟政策协调的一个核心问题。采用一般均衡的分析方法,运用蒙代尔—弗莱明模型对这一非对称性制度搭配所带来的搭便车问题进行了分析,指出成员国财政政策协调失灵和财政危机将会引发欧盟整体的汇率危机和银行业危机等一系列现实问题。     

中国经济增长中货币政策与财政政策有效性的比较检验

本文通过一个广义货币供应量、财政支出和国内生产总值三变量向量误差修正模型(VECM)考察中国1978—2005年间货币政策和财政政策对经济增长影响的差异性特征。在应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法研究它们之间的动态特性后发现:积极货币政策的经济增长效果无论在短期还是长期内均要强于财政政策,长期内,积极货币政策对经济增长一直有递减的正效应,但是积极财政政策由于挤出效应的影响,长期内对经济增长呈负效应。     

The macroeconomics outcome of oil shocks in the small Eurozone economies

In this work, we provide an analysis over the period 1999–2015 of the effects of oil shocks on prices and GDP in a group of small Euro-area economies. The group includes Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In order to characterise the macroeconomic outcomes of movements in oil prices, we adopt the structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology. We find that under the European Monetary Union (EMU), oil price shocks have been important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in almost all these countries. Moreover, an increase in oil prices produces significant recessionary effects in all the countries included in the investigation. Thus, although there are different sizes in the responses of output in the investigated countries, our main conclusion is that despite the structural changes experienced by the European economies in the last decades, oil prices still matter for these countries. In the light of these results, we also stress some important challenges for the conduct of monetary policy in the Euro area.