基于技术创新能力的国际直接投资阶段论及对中国的验证

本文以应用计量经济模型把54个样本国的技术发展阶段分成低技术、中技术和高技术3个组及6个梯级水平,同时把FDI阶段分成强吸收FDI、弱吸收FDI和净对外直接投资三个阶段,并对不同阶段的技术发展和FDI关系进行研究。结果表明,一国技术发展阶段越低,FDI流入的比重越高,FDI流出比重越低;FDI能否推动低技术国家的技术发展,取决于本国在所处技术发展阶段、技术发展路径选择、直接投资能力和国内的基础研发努力等方面。这从我国FDI发展阶段滞后于技术发展阶段的实际情况中得到验证。     

The Solow model in the empirics of growth and trade

Translated to a cross-country context, the Solow model (Solow,1956) predicts that international differences in steady-stateoutput per person are due to international differences in technologyfor a constant capital–output ratio. However, most ofthe empirical growth literature that refers to the Solow modelhas employed a specification where steady-stateifferences inoutput per person are due to international differences in thecapital–output ratio for a constant level of technology.My empirical results show that the former specification cansummarize the data quite well by using a measure of institutionaltechnology and treating the capital–output ratio as partof the regression constant. This reinterpretation of the cross-countrySolow model provides an implication for empirical studies ofinternational trade. Harrod-neutral technology differences,as presumed by the Solow model, can explain why countries havedifferent factor intensities and may end up in different conesof specialization.     

Intellectual property rights and licensing: An econometric investigation

Intellectual Property Rights and Licensing: An Econometric Investigation. — Licensing has been virtually ignored in the econometric literature on intellectual property rights (IPRs). We discuss theoretical effects of IPRs on decisions to license technology internationally. Based on a theoretical model we specify a reduced-form econometric equation relating the volume of U.S. licensing to measures of technology protection and other variables in licensee nations. The model is applied to data for 23 countries in a panel covering 1985, 1990, and 1995. The results indicate that countries with stronger patent rights attract larger arm’ s-length volumes of licensed technology, though we are unable to distinguish between licensing quantities and values.     

Mind the gap��German motherhood risks in figures and game theory issues

After childbirth, while parents are delighted at public cash transfers like the German ‘Elterngeld’ (parental leave benefit), the decline in mothers’ earnings capacity is an awkward issue that tends to hover in the background. This paper aims firstly to make a contribution to quantifying West German mothers’ foregone gross earnings that stem from intermittent labor market participation, due to the birth of their first child. Secondly, it discusses behavioral outcomes of the resulting implicit child costs in a dynamic bargaining model of household decisions. The regression results of a Mincer-type wage equation, with German Socio-Economic Panel Data (West) for the period 1984–2005 and correcting for sample selection (Two-step Heckman), indicate considerable wage penalties due to birth-related employment withdrawal. On the closure of the fecund window, mothers suffer gross hourly wage cuts of up to 25%, compared to their equally educated, non-stop full-time employed counterparts, and the total of annualized losses amounts to as much as 201,000 Euros. Although foregone earnings do not matter as much in stable partnerships, they turn out to be a veritable asymmetric specialization risk that can prevent women from having children, if divorce seems sufficiently probable.     

Multinational Enterprises,Technology Diffusion,and Host Country Absorptive Capacity: A Note

Abstract

Previous empirical studies show mixed support for the hypothesis that the impact of technology diffusion from multinational enterprises (MNEs) on host country productivity growth depends on host country absorptive capacity. One explanation is that the results of these empirical studies are sensitive to the measures of absorptive capacity used. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by investigating average years of schooling and total factor productivity gap as measures of host country absorptive capacity in 38 developed and developing countries. Panel data regression equations are estimated using a cross-sectionally heteroskedastic and timewise autoregressive (CHTA) model. The paper has two main results. The first result does not support the hypothesis that the technology diffusion from MNEs has a positive impact on the productivity growth in developing countries. The second result is that the total factor productivity gap is more appropriate than average years of schooling to measure host country absorptive capacity. This may suggest that the results of previous studies that used average years of schooling should be interpreted with caution.     

对外直接投资、逆向研发溢出与母国技术进步——数理模型与实证研究

本文在国际技术溢出理论的基础上,建立了一个对外直接投资促进母国技术进步的数理模型。该数理模型重点对Cohen & Levinthal的"吸收能力"理论作了扩展,将母国研发支出的"双重身份"扩展到"三重身份"。随后本文使用OECD国家数据对该模型进行了实证检验,认为:(1)对外直接投资获得的逆向研发溢出可以促进母国技术进步;(2)母国的研发存量和东道国研发溢出之间的交互作用以"替代作用"为主;(3)通过"门槛回归"发现,随着母国研发存量的增加,该"替代作用"逐渐增加,但是其增幅较为微弱。     

Factor Endowments and Production in European Regions

This paper analyses patterns of production across 14 industries in 45 regions from 7 European countries since 1975. We estimate an equation from neoclassical trade theory that relates an industry’s share of a region’s GDP to factor endowments, relative prices and technology. The strict version of the Heckscher–Ohlin model that assumes identical relative prices and technology is rejected against more general alternatives. However, factor endowments play a statistically significant and quantitatively important role in explaining production patterns. Factor endowments are more successful at explaining patterns of production in aggregate industries (Agriculture, Manufacturing and Services) than in disaggregated industries within manufacturing. JEL no. F11, F14, R13     

长江三角洲城市群地方政府科技投入能力研究

科技投入是技术创新的基础条件,也是科技经济一体化的动力。政府科技投入是科技投资的重要组成部分,在引导科技投入和促进科技投入多元化和社会化方面也具有重要作用。本文从实证的角度研究了长江三角洲15个城市政府科技投入能力。     

Foreign direct investment and factor prices in U.S. manufacturing

Foreign Direct Investment and Factor Prices in U.S. Manufacturing. —We investigate whether inward foreign direct investment (FDI) can explain part of the increase in relative wages of skilled workers in U.S. manufacturing over the period 1977–1994 by studying the sector bias of the effects of FDI on sector prices and technology. We follow the two-stage mandated-wage approach based on the StolperSamuelson theorem. We find that inward FDI affects the sum of sector prices and productivity depending on the absorptive capacity available in the sector. We also find some evidence that inward FDI has induced a sector bias towards using skilled workers over the period 1977–1994.     

基于AHP和DEA的科创型中小企业信用评价研究

我国科创型中小企业普遍缺乏抵押性资产,融资难度大。为减少金融机构与企业之间的信息不对称,提高科创型中小企业的融资能力,构建一套科学、合理的信用指标评价体系显得尤为重要。综合考虑企业的信用状况和经营状况,利用AHP模型计算企业信用评价得分,运用DEA-BCC模型测算企业经济状况得分,综合两者结果构建象限分布图,用来综合评价企业的信用情况。     

A model of industrial hollowing-out of neighboring countries by the economic growth of China

Our model is a multi-sectoral version of Romer's variety expansion model that reveals the presense of industrial hollowing-out. The basic idea of the model is similar to that of Lucas [Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1993, “Making a Miracle.” Econometrica 61, p. 273–302.]. An increase in (external) social experience capital through learning by doing raises labor productivity. It also increases the social capacity to adopt more technology-intensive goods. The model provides the following implications: First, even though the economic growth of China raises the exports of low-level technology goods from neighboring countries to China in the short run, this can lower their future growth potential by lowering the accumulation of social experience capital. Second, without increasing social capacity to adopt more technology-intensive goods, those countries can experience industrial hollowing-out, lower equilibrium wage rates, and a higher unemployment rate. Third, as with conclusions garnered by standard geography models, both a huge market size and very low-level wages in China imply a continuation of discontinuous and lumpy loss of jobs and sectors. In this context, various policies to raise social capacity, besides retraining programs and unemployment safety nets, should be provided by the government to avoid industrial hollowing-out and to allocate labor efficiently.     

State-Building in Resource-Rich Economies

One of the most significant differences between developing countries and today’s advanced states is the fact that many developing countries rely heavily on one or several natural resources. That such dependence shapes the state’s ability to tax—its fiscal capacity—is commonly argued in the political science and applied development literatures. This paper approaches the issue from an economic angle. Our analytical foundation builds upon a novel theoretical framework, and allows us to model fiscal capacity as an ex ante investment under uncertainty. For our panel of 30 hydrocarbon-rich economies, instrumental-variables results provide strong empirical support for our theoretical proposition: resource intensification weakens state-building by impeding the state’s fiscal capacity. This result provides an inaugural validation of the economic analytics of state-capacity determinants: understanding these determinants serves to build stronger states and support sustainable paths of development. Our result also suggests that one of the main tools of fiscal policy-analysis in resource-rich economies, namely optimal taxation, could gain in practical relevance by incorporating capacity-constraints into the analytical fiscal-framework.     

Foreign direct investment and productivity spillovers: Evidence from the Spanish experience

Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Spillovers: Evidence from the Spanish Experience. — The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on firms’ productivity using a panel of Spanish manufacturing firms for the period 1990–1998. Firstly, we show that for countries, like Spain, that are undergoing significant structural changes over the period in question it is important to control for both time-invariant as well as time-variant sectoral characteristics. Secondly, we confirm previous findings that one needs to take into account the “absorptive capacity” of firms when considering whether they are able to avail of externalities associated with FDI presence. For the Spanish case we find that only firms with sufficient levels of such capacity experience positive spillovers.     

Strategic R&D Location in European Manufacturing Industries

We empirically test a model of foreign research and development (R&D) investments that takes into account strategic interaction in R&D location decisions by multinational firms in the context of R&D cross-investments, R&D spillovers and foreign technology sourcing strategies. We find support for most of the predictions of the model in an empirical analysis of the location of patented innovations by the largest European manufacturing firms in 22 ISIC industries during 1996–1997. For technology leaders in Europe, foreign R&D ratios respond positively to host country product market competition, while technology laggards avoid these locations. Foreign R&D by technology laggards increases more strongly with the efficiency of (reverse) international technology transfer while leaders are attracted more strongly to countries with better intellectual property rights (IPRs) protection. Foreign R&D of both technology leaders and technology laggards increases with the size of the local knowledge pool and the size of manufacturing operations in the host country. JEL no.  D21, F23, L16     

中国高科技企业OFDI速度对创新绩效的影响——基于总体创新、颠覆式创新和渐进式创新视角

文章采用2008-2017年中国高科技上市公司数据,依据海外子公司投资动机计算企业基于深度和广度的技术寻求型OFDI速度,并此基础上以投资速度对企业总体创新、颠覆式创新和渐进式创新的影响研究为中心,实证检验吸收能力在其中起到的调节作用。结果表明：（1）无论是基于深度还是广度的技术寻求型OFDI速度与企业创新绩效均呈现倒U型关系;（2）吸收能力对企业OFDI速度与创新绩效之间的关系起到负向调节作用;（3）从投资地区异质性看,高吸收能力的企业无论在发达还是发展中国家基本可通过快速技术寻求型投资提升企业创新绩效,但低吸收能力的企业更适合以较低的投资速度进行技术寻求;另外,在发达国家的OFDI尤其可以帮助企业提升颠覆式创新绩效。     

Verkenningen langs het micro-groeipad

Summary The theories of the growth of the firm of Mrs. E. Penrose, W. Baumol, R. Marris and H. Albach have two features in common,viz., the formulation of the firm's goal in terms of growth and the analysis of growth stimulating and growth impeding factors. As limiting factors the managerial and the financial restraint, with the “take-over” menace as a special case, get special attention. The analysis of the financial restraint shows the interdependence of limitations to productive capacity and extension of sales as factors setting a limit to the growth of the firm. If the assumption of fixed prices is dropped and a sales function is introduced, both capacity and market restrictions can be included in one comprehensive model.

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De schrijver dankt A. Heertje voor diens stimulerende kritiek.     

'Successes' and 'Failures' in the Markets for Technology

Market-mediated contracts for technology trade are bound byseveral transaction costs. This paper argues that as these transactioncosts become less severe, markets for technology can help improvethree market failures: (i) R&D duplications; (ii) externalitiesin potentially public R&D outcomes; and (iii) deviationsfrom marginal cost pricing in the downstream product markets.In addition, with larger markets of potential users, the technologysuppliers will have incentives to produce more ‘general’technologies which span a wider number of firms or industries.Markets for technology also produce new failures. In particular,they induce deviation from marginal cost pricing in the saleof the technology, and they generate externalities associatedwith complementary R&D and other investments made by theindependent buyers and suppliers that operate in them. The paperconcludes by discussing policy implications.     

A Short-Run Crude Oil Price Forecast Model with Ratchet Effect

From 1992 through early 2004, crude oil prices were predictable by using OECD’s relative inventories and OPEC’s excess production capacity. However, since 2004, estimated inventories and excess production capacity under-predict crude oil prices. Using 3-D graphical analyzes, three regimes are identified in crude oil markets during the period from January 1992 to December 2007, reflecting market conditions and OPEC policy changes. These graphics show the changing relationship between crude oil price, inventories and excess production capacity. To reflect this, a ratchet variable, derived from cumulative excess production capacity, is incorporated into the forecasting model to reflect the changing behavior on both demand and supply sides. This model provides improved forecasts for the post Gulf War I time period over models without the ratchet mechanism.

Intertemporal production and asset pricing: a duality approach

This paper analyzes a firm's intertemporal optimization problemunder uncertainty and presents a new asset pricing model fromthe vantage point of the production side of the economy usingthe duality principle. The intertemporal profit-maximizationproblem is formulated using the familiar cost function, andthe production Euler equation that encapsulates the joint behaviorof production and asset returns is derived. An asset's riskis measured by its covariance with the stochastic discount factorrepresented by the ratio of discounted marginal costs. The riskpremium is determined by the conditional covariances of assetreturns with output growth scaled by the degree of scale economiesand with input price changes weighted by the cost share of aninput. The proposed model has the standard structure of a multibetapricing model and suggests four economic risk factors–outputgrowth, the return on human capital, the return on physicalcapital, and technology shocks–for use in empirical analysis.     

Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade

World trade evolves at two margins. Where a bilateral trading relationship already exists it may increase through time (intensive margin). But trade may also increase if a trading bilateral relationship is newly established between countries that have not traded with each other in the past (extensive margin). We provide an empirical dissection of post–World War II growth in manufacturing world trade along these two margins. We propose a “corner-solutions version” of the gravity model to explain movements on both margins. A Tobit estimation of this model resolves the so-called “distance puzzle”. It also finds more convincing evidence than recent literature that WTO-membership enhances trade. JEL no. F12, F15