Recent SEC prosecution and insider trading on forthcoming merger announcements

While trading on nonpublic information is illegal, the enforcement of this law has been elusive, particularly in the area of trading in advance of merger announcements. We examine the impact of insider trading on daily stock price changes for firms identified by the SEC in the Antoniu-Newman insider trading case. Using residual analysis, the abnormal returns occuring prior to the announcement are calculated and compared with a sample of 188 typical merger candidates not identified in the Antoniu-Newman case to determine whether or not there was an unusually large market reaction prior to the forthcoming merger announcement on the subset of merger candidates involved in the court procedure.     

控制权转移的市场反应——基于私有收益视角

控制权转移可以引起公司股票价格以及股东财富的变化,国内外学者对此进行了大量研究,但鲜有结合控制权私有收益的分析。本文从私有收益视角出发,从事件期的累积超常收益、超常换手率、内幕交易指标、长期购买持有收益以及国有和民营买家超常收益的比较等方面进行了实证研究,结果表明:上市公司的控制权转移在很大程度上是新控股股东通过内幕交易获取私有收益的行为,并未真正为股东创造价值。     

Abnormal trading volume and autoregressive behavior in weekly stock returns in the Saudi stock market

This paper examines the relationship between the abnormal change in trading volume of both individual stocks and portfolios and short-term price autoregressive behavior in the Saudi stock market (SSM). Our objective is to investigate the informational role that trading volume plays in predicting the direction of short-term returns. We evaluate whether the abnormal change in lagged, contemporaneous, and lead turnovers affects serial correlation in returns. Specifically, we examine if and when the change in volume produces momentum (positive correlation) or reversal (negative autocorrelation) in consecutive weekly stock returns.We find a reversal in weekly stock returns when conditioned on the change in lagged volume in the SSM. Our results are consistent for the whole sample, the two sub-sample periods, and the large- and small-firm portfolios. The results are consistent with Campbell, Grossman, and Wang [Campbell, J. Y., S. J. Grossman, and J. Wang, 1993, Trading volume and serial correlation in stock returns, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 905–939], who present a model in which risk-averse market makers accommodate the selling pressure of liquidity or non-informational traders. We also find that reversal is more pronounced with the loser portfolio as specified by filter-based methodology. The overall result of this paper is also consistent with the empirical findings of Conrad, Hameed, and Niden [Conrad, J., A. Hameed, and C. Niden, 1994, Volume and autocovariances in short-horizon individual security returns, Journal of Finance 49, 1305–1329.] and Gebka [Gebka, B., 2005, Dynamic volume-return relationship: evidence from an emerging market, Applied Financial Economics, 15, 1019–1029] in which they report price reversal for stock with high trading volume.     

News media and insider trading profitability: An emerging country perspective

We test news media's disciplining by dissemination role and predictive power in insider trading related issues with a large and novel dataset on Chinese firms between 2008 and 2017. We find that more media coverage is associated with significantly lower level of insider trading profitability, which confirms the disciplining by dissemination role of media documented in the developed market. However, as a new evidence to the media and insider trading literature, we also find that media's negative tone has a positive correlation with future insider trading profitability, which is consistent with the media predictive power argument. In addition, we find that media's predictive power is amplified by a firm's good governance structure and low level of information asymmetry. Our study shows news media's effectiveness in predicting opportunistic insider trading in China.     

An Experiment Testing the Determinants of Non-Compliance with Insider Trading Laws

Recent stories of corporate insiders avoiding losses and, in some cases, generating enormous personal profits as their companies crumbled have led investors to question the integrity of American business and the fairness of the United States stock markets. The SEC tries to ensure the fairness of the stock markets by making and enforcing laws against unfair practices such as insider trading. In the United States, when insiders trade stock based on non-public information, they have broken the law and betrayed the trust that has been placed in them.This study used student subjects to test the relationship between the likelihood of trading based on insider information and subjective probabilities of deterrents and motivations for insider trading. Expected gain, guilt, cynicism, and fairness of laws were the determinants that had a significant relationship with the intent to trade based on insider information. This study also found support for prospect theory with regard to insider trading. The results indicate that subjects are more likely to trade based on insider information to avoid a loss than to achieve an abnormal gain. The study also finds evidence of social desirability response bias.Additional findings of the study were that subjects did not view the determinants for themselves in a manner consistent with how they viewed those same deterrents and motivations for other people. Also, a test of the effects of gender found that certainty and social stigma were significantly higher for female respondents than for male respondents.     

我国沪深股市量价关系实证分析——基于分位数回归估计

文章应用分位数回归考察我国沪深股市成交量和收益率之间的关系。实证分析的结果表明：沪深两市的成交量与收益率呈正相关关系,成交量的增加往往伴随着股票价格上涨,而成交量的萎缩则伴随着股票价格下跌;然而在左尾处这种关系受到了扭曲,此时成交量与收益率呈负相关,成交量的增加反而引起股票价格下降。进一步的分析发现,我国股市的涨跌停板制度是引起这种现象的主要原因。     

Insider trading laws and price informativeness in emerging stock markets: The South African case

We test the view that insider trading deters informativeness and, thereby, provide empirical evidence on the ramifications of insider trading legislation, particularly in an emerging market, that has hitherto received no research attention. Using the difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that “effective insider trading law” improves stock price informativeness, a reflection of market efficiency, and that this efficiency is robust to both economic factors that affect market efficiency and the choice of control. Importantly, our results support the hypothesis that prohibition of insider trading elicits efficiency enhancement, particularly in emerging markets which are often characterized by weaker requisite institutional infrastructure than developed markets.     

Two-stage models for the analysis of information content of equity-selling mechanisms choices

Extant research offers mixed empirical results on if private placement firms are undervalued. [Hertzel, Michael G., and Smith, L. (1993), “Market Discounts and Shareholder Gains for Placing Equity Privately,” J Finance 48, 459-485] suggest that private placements convey favorable information. On the other hand, [Hertzel, Michael G., Lemmon, M., Linck, J., and Rees, L. (2002), “Long-Run Performance following Private Placements of Equity,” J Finance 57, 2595-2617] show that, similar to public offering firms, private placement firms experience significant negative long-run post-announcement stock price performance. This paper develops the two-stage estimation models to explore the information content of equity-selling mechanism. This paper uses estimated residuals from insider trading regressions (proxy for abnormal insider trades) to measure private information. The result shows that the probability of making private placements increases with abnormal insider purchases and decreases with abnormal insider sales. This suggests that, relative to the public offering firms, private placement firms are undervalued.     

The market response of insider transferring trades and firm characteristics in Taiwan

This paper reports the announcement effects of insider transfer trades and relates these with firms' characteristics. Regulations in Taiwan specify that insiders give three days prior notice to the competent authority of stock transfers and this news can stimulate market participants' investment decisions. We find both the positive and negative abnormal returns exist following insider transfer trade announcements, especially for smaller firm. However, smaller firm sizes associate with larger magnitudes of negative abnormal returns. Furthermore, the connection between smaller firms and those with higher book-to-market ratios strengthens for larger negative abnormal returns.     

Flight-to-liquidity: Evidence from China's stock market

In an order-driven and strictly regulated stock market, illiquidity risks' effects on asset pricing should be highlighted, particularly in such extreme market conditions as those in China. This paper utilizes panel data from China's stock market in an attempt to answer whether the illiquidity risk in various dimensions—including price impacts, the transaction speed, trading volume, transaction costs, and asymmetric information—can explain stock returns. We find that almost all dimensions of stock illiquidity are positively associated with excess stock returns. More importantly, smaller, less-liquid stocks suffer more liquidity costs, providing a strong evidence for “flight-to-liquidity.” Additionally, the transaction costs and asymmetric information, denoted by bid-ask spreads, robustly account for these illiquidity effects on stock pricing and differ from the findings in the U.S. market. We also find that the “flight-to-liquidity” can partially explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle, investors' gambling, and herding psychologies. This study provides substantial policy implications in regulation and portfolio management for emerging markets.     

The Issue of Insider Trading in Law and Economics: Lessons for Emerging Financial Markets in the World

Growth of the private sector and privatization of state companies around the world have led to the emergence of various stock markets, some of which are depicted by insider trading. Law literature uses the arguments of unfairness, breach of fiduciary rights and damage to others to define and rule against insider trading. Economic literature can be used to interpret insider trading from other perspectives. This study argues that the question of insider trading in developing markets can be resolved by the extent stock markets generate externalities and are public goods. It advocates structural changes in the developing markets and examines the conditions under which the Coase Theorem would work.     

When do informed traders acquire and trade on informational advantage? Evidence from Federal Reserve stress tests

Using Federal Reserve bank stress test announcements, we examine when option traders acquire informational advantage and when they exploit it. We find consistent evidence of informed options trading around announcements. However, when test results are announced in successive weeks we find high abnormal option volume, considerably positive abnormal returns and significant return predictability in the first week, but not the following week. This suggests that informed option traders are able to anticipate upcoming news events and skillfully process public information but it also suggests that trading on acquired information is conditioned on the level of information asymmetry in the market.     

Ethical Reasoning and the Use of Insider Information in Stock Trading

The cognitive developmental theory of ethics suggests that there is a positive relationship between ethical reasoning and ethical behavior. In this study, we trained a sample of accounting and finance students in performing competitive stock trading in our state-of-the-art trading room. The subjects then performed trading of stocks under two experimental conditions: insider information, and no-insider information where significant performance-based financial awards were at stake. We also administered the Defining Issues Test (DIT). Ethical behavior, as the dependent variable was measured in a binary scale: whether the subjects used insider information for trading of stocks or not. Ethical reasoning as measured by the DIT P-score indicated statistically significant effect on ethical behavior. The results have important implications for recruitment and training of professionals engaged in the use of financial markets for securities trading.     

The Ethics of Insider Trading Revisited

Following Manne (1966, Insider Trading and the Stock Market (New York, Free Press)) we introduce a distinction between insider trading and market manipulation on the one hand and corporate insiders versus misappropriators on the other hand. This gives rise to four types of alleged inside transactions. We argue that the literature on insider trading has often targeted inside transactions type II, III and IV but that these arguments do not necessarily hold for type I transactions. We look for consequentionalist as well as non-consequentionalist arguments against type I transactions and demonstrate that these are hard to find. Throughout the article we refer extensively to the economic literature on insider trading in order to overcome a relative divide between the economic, legal, and philosophical discussion on insider trading.

An Analysis of Stock Market Response to the IOC's Commercial Partnership: The Case of the TOP Partnership Program

The purpose of this study was to investigate the empirical properties of stock market response. The financial impact of corporate sponsorship is reflected in the market value of a firm's stock price, which is measured by comparing the abnormal stock return between the preevent window (250 trading days) and the 14 trading days of the event period. Computations of ARs, CARs, and other test statistics were based on the event study model and were carried out using the SAS 9.2 software. For the preevent windows (t = ?3, t = ?1), there were statistically significant positive ARs and 80% of the TOP sponsors showed positive ARs in the overall duration of the Olympic Games. The overall CARs during the event period (t = ?3 through t = +10) indicates marginally positive returns for the event.     

内部人购买本公司股份行为披露的信息含量：基于后股改时期的证据

以后股权分置改革时期为研究背景,实证考察了内部人股份买入信息披露的信息含量及其影响因素。研究发现,投资者持有存在内部人股份买入信息披露公司股份获得的超额累积回报随着信息不确定性程度的增加而增大。当公司披露盈利亏损这一负面消息后,内部人股份买入信息会带来较大的盈利持续性预期调整,这一现象在信息不确定性程度较高的公司组最为明显。文章表明市场对上市公司盈余预期的调整会受到信息环境的影响,内部人购入本公司股份信息披露市场的反应强度与方向具有显著差异。该结论对帮助投资者更好地理解内部人股份交易行为披露的信息含量与会计信息的交互作用提供了进一步证据。     

Arbitrage risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China

We demonstrate that arbitrage risk, constructed using three measures — noise trader risk, trading cost and information uncertainty — can predict the return of stocks cross-sectionally in China. The findings are broadly consistent even when out-of-sample tests are conducted using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression approach. We also construct hypothetical portfolios using the information arising from arbitrage risk and find the existence of abnormal returns which is robust to the use of various portfolios constructed by re-sampling the observations through multiple approaches (e.g., by market capitalization and by book-to-market ratio). Lastly, we reconstruct our portfolios by considering the unique nature of the Chinese stock market (e.g., the dominance of individual investors). Our trading strategies again successfully obtain abnormal returns, suggesting that arbitrage risk can be useful to construct effective investment portfolios in China.     

The effect of futures trading on the distribution of spot index returns: Implications for CVaR in the Spanish market

There is extensive empirical research on the potential destabilizing effects of futures trading activity on spot market volatility. Rather than just focusing on spot volatility, the authors deal with the contemporaneous relationship between futures trading volume and the overall probability distribution of spot market returns. Empirical evidence using intraday data from the Spanish stock index futures market over the period 2000–2002 is provided. Their findings reveal that the density function of spot return conditional to spot volume depends on unexpected futures trading volume.     

Shareholder authorized inside trading: A legal and moral analysis

This article evaluates inside trading from a legal and a moral perspective. From both of these points of view, the practice of inside trading is fraudulent whether it occurs in the traditional format or in the variation known as misappropriation. Fraud is a legal tort and a moral wrong consisting of a breach of duty that intentionally causes harm to persons that the insider can reasonably foresee. In defense against allegations of fraudulent inside trading, the defendant may argue that one or more elements of fraud are not evident, or, if the elements are clear, that the fraud was a justified means of avoiding some worse evil or of achieving some greater good. The article concludes that inside trading, under circumstances approved by shareholders, is neither fraudulent nor unfair. Bill Shaw is a Professor of Business Law at the University of Texas at Austin.     

Internet Search Intensity and Its Relation with Trading Activity and Stock Returns*

Using Google search volume as a proxy for investor attention, this paper provides evidence on the role attention plays in financial markets. We first show that abnormal Google search volume (ASVI) helps explain cross‐sectional variations in trading activity, even after controlling for its important determinants. Specifically, ASVI is positively related to trading volume, order imbalance and liquidity. When the relation between stock returns and ASVI is examined, we find a strong positive relation in the month after attention shocks and a reversal over a longer holding period. We further conjecture that the attention effect is more pronounced in stocks with higher limits to arbitrage. For this purpose, we construct a limits‐to‐arbitrage index and show that limits to arbitrage play an important role in explaining the attention effect.