AN EXAMINATION OF MARKET REACTION TO SUBSTANTIAL SHIFTS IN DIVIDEND POLICY

This study provides further empirical evidence on the informational content of dividends hypothesis. To reduce the misclassification of unfavorable and favorable dividend announcements, which can result when small dividend changes are included, the analysis is restricted to cases where a substantial shift in dividend policy has occurred. Specifically, the authors examine the aggregate market response to announcements of (1) omitted dividends, (2) dividend decreases of at least 25 percent, (3) dividend increases of at least 25 percent, and (4) initial dividend payments. The results indicate that announcements of dividend omissions and large decreases have a pronounced downward impact on stock prices even though the market has anticipated the forthcoming news to a large degree. Similarly, the market reaction to initial dividend declarations is found to be substantial and much greater than previously found for favorable dividend classifications in general.     

Taxes and dividends: The UK evidence

This paper provides empirical evidence on the simultaneous effects of both corporation and personal income taxes on dividend payment adjustments and on the behaviour of share prices on the ex-dividend dates. The results show that companies set their dividend policies to minimise their tax liability and to maximise the after-tax return of their shareholders. In particular, firms that are unable to deduct the advanced corporation tax from their tax liability are found to pay low dividends. In addition, consistent with the tax hypothesis, we find that the differential taxation of dividends and capital gains results in a decrease in ex-day share prices by significantly less than the amount of the dividend. There is no evidence of a tax-induced dividend clientele.     

New Evidence That Taxes Affect the Valuation of Dividends

This paper uses British data to examine the effects of dividend taxes on investors' relative valuation of dividends and capital gains. British data offer great potential to illuminate the dividends and taxes question, since there have been two radical changes and several minor reforms in British dividend tax policy during the last 30 years. Studying the relationship between dividends and stock price movements during different tax regimes offers an ideal controlled experiment for assessing the effects of taxes on investors' valuation of dividends. Using daily data on a small sample of firms, and monthly data on a much broader sample, we find clear evidence that taxes affect the equilibrium relationship between dividend yields and market returns. These findings suggest that taxes are important determinants of security market equilibrium and deepen the puzzle of why firms pay dividends.     

THE EFFECTS OF THE ANNOUNCEMENTS OF DIVIDEND INCREASES ON STOCK RETURN VOLATILITY: THE EVIDENCE FROM THE OPTIONS MARKET

This paper examines the impact of the announcements of dividend increases on the volatility of underlying stock returns implied by option prices, and analyses whether the impact is related to the label associated with the dividend increase. The results suggest that the announcements of labelled dividend increases are accompanied by a decrease in implied volatility, while the announcements of unlabelled increases in dividends are associated with no change in implied volatility. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that signal implicit in the announcements of dividend increases provides noisy information about the firm's volatility.     

AN ANALYSIS OF SHAREHOLDER REACTION TO DIVIDEND CUTS AND OMISSIONS

In this paper the proposition is tested that stock market reaction to a dividend change is a function of its information content. A multiple regression model is formulated to identify the factors that contribute significantly to the capital loss suffered by shareholders when firms decide to cut/omit dividends. Results indicate that, in conformity with the information content hypothesis, the announcement period capital loss induced by a dividend deduction significantly depends on the percentage change in dividends, the size and risk of the firm, and the price performance of the firm's stock in the immediately preceding period. The results further reveal that (1) simultaneous announcements of poor earnings cause larger capital losses; (2) prior announcements of loss/lower earnings, strikes, etc. attenuate the negative impact of dividend cuts; (3) managerial reassurances that the dividend reduction is growth-motivated produces a weakly favorable effect, and (4) institution of stock dividends concurrently with the dividend cut significantly reduces the negative valuation effect. It is concluded from the evidence that stock market reaction to managerial signals is a function of the perceived costs associated with these signals.     

Wealth redistributions or changes in firm value: An analysis of returns to bondholders and stockholders around dividend announcements

Past studies indicate that stock prices are affected by announcements of unexpected dividend changes, i.e., unexpectedly large dividends are associated with positive stock price response. Two explanations of this empirical regularity, ‘the information content hypothesis’ and the ‘wealth redistribution hypothesis’, imply different bond price behavior around dividend announcements. The information content hypothesis predicts a positive bond price response to unexpectedly large dividends, while the wealth redistribution hypothesis predicts the opposite. This paper distinguishes between the relative importance of the two hypotheses by empirically investigating bond price behavior around dividend announcements. The evidence presented is consistent with the information content hypothesis. However, the gains associated with positive information are captured by the stockholders, while the losses are shared with the bondholders.     

Effects of tax reform on drop-off ratios and on the ex-dividend and ex-right prices

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the integrated tax system introduced in Taiwan on the valuation of dividends. Based on Elton and Gruber??s (Rev Econ Stat 52:68?C74, 1970) model, the ratio of ex-day price drop to cash dividend per share (i.e., the drop-off ratio) should reflect the relative taxes on dividends and capital gains. In Taiwan, the suspension of capital gains taxes, the coexistence of taxable and non-taxable stock dividends, and the change in tick sizes allow us to control for the influences of non-tax factors on drop-off ratios. In this paper, we find significant increases in drop-off ratios for both cash dividends and taxable stock dividends after Taiwan??s tax reform (in 1998), while we find no significant changes in drop-off ratios for non-taxable stock dividends. These results provide further evidence to support the argument that tax affects the valuation of firms.     

THE RELATION AMONG DIVIDEND POLICY,FIRM SIZE,AND THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS

In this paper we investigate the role of dividends in explaining the size effect. The previous literature concludes that before the firm's earnings announcement, small firm stock prices impound less information than large firm stock prices. This size effect is evidenced by the greater market reaction to small firm earnings announcements than to large firm earnings announcements. We find that if the dividend announcement precedes the earnings announcement, no size effect exists. The implication is that the information conveyed by dividend announcements includes the information conveyed to investors in large firms by other information sources. However, if the firm does not pay dividends or if the firm's earnings announcement precedes its dividend announcement, the size effect exists. The implication is that dividends do not completely explain the size effect. That is, there are information sources other than dividends that are exclusively available to investors in large firms, and the information provided by these sources is reflected in the stock price of large firms before the earnings announcement.     

Corporate Dividends and Seasoned Equity Issues: An Empirical Investigation

This paper investigates whether managers rely on dividends to obtain a higher price in a stock offering and whether the stock price reaction to dividend and offering announcements justifies such a coordination. The evidence does not support either conjecture. Issuing firms are not more likely to pay or increase dividends than nonissuing forms. Moreover, there is little evidence that firms time stock offering announcements right after dividend declarations to benefit from the attendant information disclosure. The analysis of dividend and stock offering announcement effects suggests few if any benefits from linking dividend and stock offering announcements.     

Regular Dividend Announcements and Future Unexpected Earnings: An Empirical Analysis

Previous studies have interpreted stock price reaction to dividend announcements as being consistent with the hypothesis that any changes are forecasts of future corporate profits. Recent studies seem to provide evidence to this effect. This study provides additional empirical evidence pertaining to the issue of whether quarterly cash dividend announcements convey useful information about a firm's future profitability, beyond that contained in contemporaneous quarterly earnings announcements. The association between unexpected changes in quarterly dividends and unexpected accounting earnings in subsequent quarters is examined, after controlling for information contained in past and current earnings series. The results, based on a large sample of regular quarterly cash dividend changes, indicate that firms that increased (decreased) their dividends realized, on average, greater (smaller) unexpected accounting earnings in subsequent periods than firms that did not change their dividends.     

A Test of the Relative Pricing Effects of Dividends and Earnings: Evidence from Simultaneous Announcements in Japan

We study the pricing effects of dividend and earnings announcements by taking advantage of the unique setting in Japan where managers simultaneously announce the current year's dividends and earnings as well as forecasts of next year's dividends and earnings. Defining surprises as deviations from analysts' forecasts, we find that share price reactions are significantly affected by earnings surprises, especially management forecasts of next year's earnings. The information content of dividends is marginal and is restricted to announcements of next year's dividends. Consistent with Modigliani and Miller's dividend irrelevance proposition, current dividend surprises have no material impact on stock prices in Japan.     

The valuation effects of stock splits and stock dividends

This study presents evidence which indicates that stock prices, on average, react positively to stock dividend and stock split announcements that are uncontaminated by other contemporaneous firm-specific announcements. In addition, it documents significantly positive excess returns on and around the ex-dates of stock dividends and splits. Both announcement and ex-date returns were found to be larger for stock dividends than for stock splits. While the announcement returns cannot be explained by forecasts of imminent increases in cash dividends, the paper offers several signalling based explanations for them. These are consistent with a cross-sectional analysis of the announcement period returns.     

中美资本市场财富效应比较研究

本文从股利支付和资本利得的角度对比分析了中美资本市场财富效应水平,并对其影响因素展开分析。研究发现,我国资本市场财富效应不够显著,A股上市公司虽然具有较高的股利支付倾向,但股利支付率和资本利得属性较弱;股利支付行为迎合监管动机较强,融资分红特征明显,股票股利支付行为具有高送转特征;资本市场估值中枢下移,指数波动性较高,资本利得属性较差。美股上市公司虽然股利支付意愿不及A股,但股利支付率和资本利得属性较强,且上市公司不存在明显的融资分红倾向。基于此,本文从控股股东属性、企业生命周期、管理层侵占行为、宏观经济和资本市场环境四个维度对A股市场财富效应水平展开深入探讨,并从提升公司质量、改善盈利能力、调整投资者结构、加强市场建设、优化股利监管制度五方面提出了改善我国资本市场财富效应的政策建议。     

Why Do Stock Prices Drop by Less Than the Amount of the Dividend? Evidence from a Unique Environment

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effect of a lack of an automated limit order adjustment mechanism on ex-dividend day stock price behavior in a unique environment in which there are no taxes on dividends and capital gains. It finds that the overnight drop in the ask price is smaller than the overnight drop in the bid price. In addition, the study finds that average price drops are smaller than the dividend amount for all dividend sizes. I also find no evidence of a sawtooth-shaped relationship between the dividend amount and the ex-day price drop. These results are generally consistent with the lack of an automated limit order adjustment mechanism.     

Dividend changes and catering incentives

We extend Baker and Wurgler's [2004a. Journal of Finance 59 1125–1165] catering theory to include decreases and increases in existing dividends. Consistent with our extended model, we find that the decision to change the dividend and the magnitude of the change depend on the premium that the capital market places on dividends. We also find that the stock market reaction to dividend changes depends on the dividend premium. Thus, the capital market rewards managers for considering investor demand for dividends when making decisions about the level of dividends.     

Capital Gains Taxes and Equity Trading: Empirical Evidence

Individual investors have an incentive to defer selling appreciated stock until it qualifies for tax‐favored, long‐term capital gains treatment. Shackelford and Verrecchia [2002] show that these incentives can affect equity trading around public disclosures. This article provides some empirical support for their theory with evidence of price increases and equity constrictions around announcements of quarterly earnings and additions to the S&P 500 index. We find share returns rise and trading volume falls with the incremental taxes saved by deferring the sale of appreciated property. The price increases, however, are temporary, reversing in subsequent trading days. The results are consistent with buyers believing the compensation to sell before long‐term qualification (through higher prices) is less costly than holding an inappropriately weighted portfolio. This finding—that personal capital gains taxes affect equity trading—adds to a growing literature that challenges longstanding assumptions that firm value is independent of shareholders and their taxes.     

The Christmas effect—Special dividend announcements

This paper examines the Halloween effect in special dividend announcements. We find that firms are more likely to announce special dividends at the end of a year, especially in the months of November and December. There is a Halloween effect in the announcements, but more importantly, there is a Christmas effect in the propensity and abnormal returns of special dividends. This paper provides initial evidence on the Christmas effect of special dividend payments. It links monthly effects in stock returns and corporate events to explain the likelihood of the occurrence of special dividend announcements. The results of this paper shed light on why corporate events are more likely to occur in some periods, but less likely to occur in others.     

Operating performance following dividend decreases and omissions

Using quarterly data and benchmarks based on past performance characteristics, I find little evidence that earnings change following 661 dividend decreases and 484 dividend omissions between 1980 and 1998. The exception is that earnings deteriorate during the quarter of dividend omissions, but they recover within a couple of quarters. My results further suggest that the lack of a more pronounced earnings decline is neither attributable to a contemporaneous and confounding increase in share repurchases, to earnings management, nor to improving investment opportunities, and the results are similar for firms that are not predicted to cut dividend payouts based on their financial flexibility. Instead, I find some evidence that the negative stock price reaction reflects the dismal performance during the quarter of the announcement, especially for firms that omit dividends, and that the market interprets the dividend announcements too pessimistically.     

STOCK DIVIDENDS AS SIGNALS

This study analyzes stock dividends as signals from managers. It is argued that in the presence of information asymmetries between managers and investors, stock dividends provide a relatively inexpensive and unambiguous signalling device. Based on an examination of the daily returns around 317 stock dividend announcements, it is concluded that these announcements are interpreted by investors as signals from managers. Further analysis also indicates that stock dividend size is positively related to announcement day returns.     

Earnings,dividend policy,and present value relations: Building blocks of dividend policy invariant cash flows

In a Modigliani-Miller world, dividend policy is irrelevant for asset pricing. This article searches for cash flows with two characteristics: like dividends, asset prices can be calculated from their present values and, unlike dividends, they are invariant with respect to changes in dividend policy. Segmented and aggregate residual income measures with these features are identified under two assumptions: dividend policy does not alter risk premiums and income earned from investments associated with dividend policy includes unrealized capital gains and losses. The results hold for otherwise arbitrary risk premiums in the general no-arbitrage approach to the valuation of uncertain income streams.