银行业高利润隐忧

中国银监会近日发布的《银监会2010年报》显示,2010年中国银行业金融机构实现税后利润8991亿元,同比增长34.5%。其中,中国银行、建设银行、农业银行等8家上市银行公布2010年年报,其净利润同比增幅均在20%以上。从利润角度看,可以说2010年中国银行业交出了一份漂亮的成绩     

用历史和发展的眼光看银行利润增长

应从历史的、相对的和长期发展的角度来综合看待银行利润增长,准确把握金融体制改革的方向,促进金融业和实体经济的可持续发展2006～2011年,中国银行业金融机构净利润年平均增长30%以上,2011年商业银行利润为10412亿元,同比增长36.3%。中国银行业正处于一个快速发展和利润     

德勤:迎接“个位数”时代

2013年5月7日,德勤中国金融服务业卓越中心发布《2013中国银行业十大趋势与展望》报告,并预计受经济增速的放缓、利率市场化的稳步推进、中间业务的回落,以及银行各项成本与投入的增加等因素影响,中国银行业2013年的利润增速将回归常态,银行业的利润增速或将步入个位数时代。利润增速延续趋缓态势实体经济增速放缓和经济结构转型,影响着中国银行业的信贷规模和盈利增长。据中国银行业监督管理委员会公布的数据显示,2012年,中国商业银行全年累计实现净利润1.24万亿元,同比增长18.9%,而2011年净利润增速则     

商业

<正>■中国银行业利润总额、资本回报率名列全球第一继2008年大幅增长30.6%达到5834亿元后,中国银行业的净利润在2009年进一步增至6684亿元。2010年前三季度,"工、农、中、建、交"5家国有大型商业银行净利润同比再增29.11%,中小股份制银行增速则大多在30%以上。     

风险股提示

光明乳业(600597)营业费用率短期难以下降2010年1-9月,公司实现营业收入68.15亿元,同比增长12%,营业利润1.55亿元,同比下降2.4%,实现归属母公司净利润1.32亿元,同比增长14.1%,实现每股收益0.127元。其中,三季度实现营业收入24.87亿元,同比增长11.5%,营业利润9121     

横店东磁 光伏巨子茁壮成长

公司2010年年报显示,2010年公司实现营收30.01亿元,同比增长122.22%。实现营业利润4.23亿元,同比增长133.62%。实现归属上市公司股东净利润3.63亿元,同比增长123.36%,对应的EPS为0.88元。永磁业务实现收入9.36亿元,同比增长29.24%。软磁业务实现收入7.64亿元,同比增长31.35%。软磁毛利率31.35%,同比上升2.51个百分点。光伏业务扩张迅速,实现营收9.73亿元,毛利率为17.80%。     

以机制建设为中心 培育人才资源优势

2002年,中银集团实现拨备和消化历史包袱前营业利润522.71亿元,同比增长25.68%,税前利润总额137.91亿元,同比增长26.36%。中国银行各项业务健康快速发展,不良资产比率大幅下降,继续入选《财富》杂志全球500强企业,《欧洲货币》和《资产》杂志分别将中国银行评为中国最佳银行和最佳国内商业银行。具有良好公司治理机制建设的发展思路和一支优秀的干部员工队伍,是中国银行得以稳健快速发展的重要因素。在世界经济和科技信息发展日益全球化的今天,人力资源的作用越来越突出,银行业的竞争实质已成为人才的竞争。面对银行改革发展的需要,人力资源…     

潜力股前瞻

★★★★江西铜业(600362)业绩持续增长公司三季报显示,2010年1-9月实现营业收入572.06亿元,同比增长66.26%,营业利润45亿元,同比增长94.13%,归属于公司股东的净利润33.99亿元,同比增长92.84%,实现EPS1.12元/股。     

中新药业 资源丰富 营销整合继续深入

预计公司主营利润将保持稳定、高速增长,2010年同比增长约40%。2010-2012年的EPS分别为0.80、1.00、1.25元。众多优秀的中药品种和参股资产是公司的核心优势,公司营销改革和医保扩容助力优秀     

高成长背景下银行面临的五大隐忧

从2010年金融机构的经营形势来看,银行业共实现税后利润8991亿元,同比增长34.5%。可以说,实现了少有的高增长。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…