Public Infrastructure and the Productive Performance of Canadian Manufacturing Industries

This article examines the effects of public infrastructure on the productive performance of 12 two-digit Canadian manufacturing industries. A flexible cost function incorporating public capital infrastructure is estimated for each industry separately using annual time series data for 1961-1995. The effects of public infrastructure on productivity are measured in terms of both cost-saving (dual) and output-augmenting (primal) measures. We also investigate how public capital influences the input demand and cost structure in each industry and calculate the rate of return to public capital. The empirical results provide strong evidence of the important role public infrastructure plays in the productivity of manufacturing industries. The public capital serves as a substitute for both private capital and labor in most industries. The rates of return to public capital are significant and vary over the years.     

贸易溢出、人力资本与经济增长--基于中国数据的经验分析

按照Muzumdar和Baldwin的观点,贸易通过促进资本积累来促进进口国的经济增长,而根据Helpman等人的观点,贸易通过其内生的技术溢出对经济增长的影响更为持久,而技术溢出的效果则与贸易结构相关,并且需要一定的人力资本存量相结合,通过结合中国的数据分析发现:人力资本结构和分布状况对贸易溢出产生显著影响,人力资本水平的提高将增加贸易对经济增长的贡献,即贸易通过人力资本发生的技术溢出对经济增长会产生持久影响。     

Dynamic estimation of the relationship between trade openness and output growth in Asia

This paper studies the relationship between trade openness and output growth for a sample of twenty-three Asian countries using both a static OLS and a dynamic ECM estimation models. At the country specific level, the findings of this study provide robust empirical evidence indicating that higher revealed trade openness is not the main engine explaining the Asian economic-growth miracle. In particular, the authors find that physical capital accumulation is at the core of the observed long-run output per worker growth. At the regional level, the authors observe a marked difference between the pre and post 1997–1998 financial crisis, whereas, in the post period, trade openness has a positive and significant effect on output growth. In general, the results from the dynamic estimations prove that the conventional OLS static estimates underestimate the effect of investment on output growth. In addition, the dynamic model allows for a separation of gains from trade between short term and long term. The paper results also provide evidence in support of the idea that, countries with a growing degree of trade openness may experience faster per-capita output growth through gains in productivity associated to capital accumulation, rather than the assumed technological spillover effects from the trading sector. Again, at the regional level in the post financial crisis period both short term and long term gains from trade are relevant to growth. Why more trade does not necessarily imply faster growth at all levels of revealed trade openness growth, remains a conundrum.     

教育公共投入与收入差距的波及效应

在对城乡教育公共投入差异的分析基础上,运用卢卡斯的新经济增长理论框架,采用面板数据常用的固定效应模型估计人力资本及其外溢效应对城乡收入差异的影响。实证研究发现,人力资本对城乡收入增长均有较强的促进作用,且农村人力资本的产出弹性明显高于城市。但与城市相比,农村人力资本的外溢效应偏低,这在一定程度上拉大了业已存在的城乡差距。     

Trade liberalization and productivity growth in Australian manufacturing industries

Although there has been a revival of interest in the trade-growth nexus, the impact of trade liberalization on productivity gains remains empirical, given the ambiguity in the literature on this issue. This paper examines the case for Australia using annual data of eight two-digit manufacturing industries from 1968–69 to 1994–95. Unlike earlier studies, total factor productivity growth is first decomposed into technological progress and gains in technical efficiency, and the effect of trade liberalization is then investigated separately on TFP growth, as well as on each of the components of TFP growth. The empirical finding that trade liberalization has a positive and significant effect on technological progress, but no significant effect on gains in technical efficiency, adds yet another dimension to the evaluation of trade liberalization policies.     

Imperfect Competition, Economic Miracle, and Manufacturing Productivity Growth: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

Several recent studies on total factor productivity (TFP) concluded that the East Asian economies benefited little from TFP growth. This study claims that the failure by previous studies to consider the effect of net indirect taxes and market imperfections resulted in the underestimation of the share of the contribution of labor input to factor income, which consequently led to the overestimation of capital share and understatement of TFP growth. Therefore, this study has modified the conventional approach of calculating factor shares by taking account of net indirect taxes and market imperfections and used the modified approach to estimate TFP growth in 16 Taiwanese manufacturing industries during the period 1979–1999. The conclusion drawn by the study is that TFP growth was the driving force behind the success of Taiwan's manufacturing industries, although many of these industries experienced a sharp decline in TFP during the 1990s.     

Effect of intra-industry trade on skill premium in manufacturing in China

In making use of the panel data in 27 manufacturing industries, this paper examines the recent increase in skill premium in China's manufacturing. The paper argues that the recent increase in skill premium in Chinese manufacturing can be partly attributed to the decline in intra-industry trade. A reasonable explanation on this is that the decline in intra-industry trade occurred in the period studied is associated with a decrease in output. This led to a reduction in relative demand of low-skilled workers, which supports the hypothesis of the output-skill substitutability, and finally an increase in skill premium. Further, this paper finds that the negative effect of intra-industry trade on skill premium is larger for high-skilled manufacturing than low-skilled manufacturing. One more result in this paper is that the increase in capital input reduced the skill premium in Chinese manufacturing. The empirical evidence is consistent with a modified model of intra-industry trade with differentiated products and three factor inputs: high-skilled labor, low-skilled labor and capital.     

Sectoral and aggregate estimates of the cyclical behavior of markups: Evidence from Germany

Sectoral and Aggregate Estimates of the Cyclical Behavior of Mark-ups: Evidence from Germany. — The paper presents evidence of the cyclical behavior of the price to marginal cost ratio for Germany. Average markups are estimated both for two-digit manufacturing industries and for the aggregate economy, the results being quite similar once the difference between gross output and and value-added markups is accounted for. Over the business cycle, markups appear to be countercyclical for most parameter constellations. This is interpreted as empirical support for business cycle theories that rely on aggregate demand shocks to affect markups inversely, thus producing procyclical real wages and productivity without having to assume technology shocks.     

国际R&D溢出、国内R&D和真实经济增长——基于技术扩散模型的一个实证

目前已有大量的关于FDI和加工贸易国际R&D溢出的研究,本文改进了巴罗具有扩大的产品种类的技术扩散模型,将FDI国际R&D溢出、加工贸易国际R&D溢出、国内R&D三者共同作为技术进步的来源和经济增长的解释变量,通过对我国1983～2006年经济数据的实证分析表明,人力资本和国内R&D对经济增长的贡献具统计学意义上的显著性,且存在长期均衡关系;但没有足够的证据表明FDI和加工贸易对经济增长的显著正向外溢效应。     

Labour Use and its Adjustment in Indian Manufacturing Industries

Abstract

This study provides an empirical investigation of the adjustment process of labour in Indian manufacturing industries, which evolved through structural transformation in the era of globalization. The analysis is based on a dynamic model applied to a panel of 22 two-digit manufacturing industries for the time period of 22 years covering 1980/1981 to 2001/2002. It is assumed that as competition increases industries adjust their employment to a desired level which is both industry and time specific. The results indicate that the manufacturing sector has shown a considerable dynamism in adjusting its workforce. The long-run labour demand responds greatest to the output, followed by capital and least by wages. It is observed that Indian manufacturing is not inefficient in labour use as modest speed of adjustment has led employment size closer to the optimal level.     

FDI行业间技术溢出效应的实证研究——基于全球价值链的视角

国内现有研究FDI行业间技术溢出的文献相对较少,特别是没有结合跨国公司FDI按照全球价值链进行布局的背景进行分析。本文选取2001～2006年两位码国民经济行业中8个行业的面板数据,考察了购买者驱动类型和生产者驱动类型的全球价值链下跨国公司在华FDI行业间技术溢出的效应和途径。结果发现,我国纺织、服装、家具等劳动密集型行业中前向溢出和后向溢出的效应都比较明显,后向溢出的效应大于前向溢出的效应;我国电子通讯、计算机等资本技术密集型行业并没有从外资企业获得明显的行业间溢出,上游的FDI反而对内资企业的生产率带来负面影响。     

Protecting infant industries: Canadian manufacturing and the national policy, 1870–1913

Infant industry protection has been the cornerstone of a debate on tariff policy that extends at least from the eighteenth century to the current day. In contrast to traditional neo-classical models of international trade that imply net negative effects, industrial organization and learning-by-doing trade models describe how protective tariffs can encourage output expansion, productivity improvement, and price reductions. Taking Canada's 1879 National Policy as a natural experiment, we explore the effect of a policy that substantially increased tariff protection to some, but not all, Canadian manufacturing industries. Using treatment intensity and difference-in-differences approaches, we find strong support for the predictions of the new trade models. After 1879, industries that received greater protection experienced faster growth in output and productivity, as well as larger price reductions. The industries targeted by the National Policy also exhibited greater returns to scale and faster learning rates. These results have important implications for the infant-industry debate in addition to addressing a central theme in Canadian economic history,     

Indonesia's Ascent on the Technology Ladder: Capital Stock and Total Factor Productivity in Indonesian Manufacturing, 1975–95

This paper presents new capital stock estimates for mium and large-scale manufacturing in Indonesia using the Perpetual Inventory Method. Capital stock grew gradually during 1975–88, at an annual rate of 7.6%, then boomed during 1989–95 at 13.6% per annum. Growth accounting shows that 60% of the rapid growth of manufacturing output during the period 1975–95 was due to capital input growth, 18% to labour input growth and the remaining 22% to total factor productivity (TFP) growth. There is no evidence of a shift of factor inputs towards more efficient industries. TFP growth averaged 3% annually in 1975–95. Performance varied greatly across industries, but the policy changes that have taken effect since 1986 have definitely been beneficial for all industries. Put in an international perspective, however, Indonesia's TFP levels show no signs of catch-up with the world frontier.     

Growth and Productivity in Singapore Manufacturing Industries: 1975–1998

Consistently defined price and volume relatives are constructed for 18 manufacturing industries under the two-digit industry classifications officially adopted in 1996. Industry-specific output and materials price deflators for the period 1974–1998 are also constructed. Where the comparison is possible, we arrive at a markedly different conclusion from those in Tsao (1982, 1985 ) and Young (1994 ), and narrow the cause to a difference in the choice of output measure. The updated accounts show that the conventional index number measure of total factor productivity growth (TFPG) for Singapore manufacturing is 2.7% per annum for the period 1975–1998, and exhibits a cyclical pattern over time.     

产业集聚与人力资本投资效益——来自中国工业企业的微观证据

长期以来,关于我国本土企业是否存在内生经济增长特有的人力资本溢出效应,一直缺乏直接的微观经验证据。本文首次利用中国工业企业数据库的大样本数据,通过考察产业集聚与企业人力资本投资-绩效敏感性之间的关系,发现我国存在产业集聚带来的溢出效应,但这种效应只是显著存在于中小企业集群中：在中小企业集群地区,产业集聚程度上升将会提高企业人力资本投资的边际收益;而在非集群地区,产业集聚对企业人力资本投资的边际收益没有产生影响。进一步的实证检验表明,地区人力资本投资水平的提高会改善该地区没有人力资本投入的企业绩效;对于中小企业集群地区没有人力资本投入的企业,地区人力资本投资水平给其带来的边际绩效显著高于非集群地区的企业。     

生产性服务业与制造业协调发展与演化

理论推导验证生产性服务投入制造业的溢出效应,运用面板数据模型对生产性服务业和制造业耦合协调度的调节作用进行实证检验,并利用SIENA方法探索产业部门关联网络中节点互动的特质、协调发展的影响因素,发现了网络演化的机制.在产业耦合协调方面,制造业与生产性服务业的耦合度和耦合协调度对经济增长有正向调节作用,即双方的耦合协调带动生产性服务对制造业的溢出效应.在产业关联网络演化方面,产品部门之间的技术邻近性与市场邻近性促进联系的建立,开放度较高的产品部门更能够与其他部门建立联系.为了实现生产性服务业对制造业的促进作用,应鼓励跨领域合作,加强重点行业开放,推动生产性服务业和制造业进一步融合.     

What makes a country socially capable of catching up?

What Makes a Country Socially Capable of Catching Up? —In this study, the authors test whether social capability promotes catching up, the hypothesis that there is technological spillover from leaders to followers. A simple model that captures the hypothesized interaction is presented and tested on an extended sample of countries. The stock of human capital and the degree of integration into the world economy are used to measure social capability. Both measures are important in determining the degree to which the catching-up potential is realized. The authors also find an independent effect of increased trade intensity and trade regime on productivity growth.     

中国制造业产品出口的“母市场效应”——基于ISIC面板数据的研究

本文采用2002～2008年中国与OECD国家双边贸易ISIC(国际标准工业分类法)两位数面板数据对中国制造业各行业"母市场效应"的存在性进行检验。检验结果发现食品、饮料和烟草制造业、木制品业、纸制品和印刷品制造业、化学产品制造业、其他非金属矿产品制造业、机械设备制造业、运输设备制造业、杂项制品及废弃资源回收业这8个行业存在显著的"母市场效应",而纺织、服装及皮革制造业、炼油及核燃料的制造、橡胶和塑料、基本金属和金属制品等行业则不存在"母市场效应",其中炼油及核燃料的制造、橡胶和塑料这两个行业甚至呈现微弱的"逆母市场效应"。检验结果对中国扩大内需同时带来新的出口优势的部门提供了政策支持的理论依据。     

Industry-specific human capital and the wage profile: Evidence from Taiwan

Using data from Taiwan's Manpower Utilization Survey (1979–2000), this paper finds evidence that supports the industry-specific human capital effect on wage tenure profiles. Work experience is used as an indirect measure for testing industry-specific human capital by comparing the effect between stayers and movers. Other things being equal and holding firm tenure constant, movers actually incur a wage loss measured by the wage premium of the work experience. However, a greater than average firm tenure effect, especially for movers in the voluntary group, reflects an underlying job-related matching process. We also find that the effect of work experience declines with education, while the effect of industry-specific human capital increases with education. JEL no. J24, J31, J41, J62.     

FDI导致中国制造业价格贸易条件恶化了吗?——基于微观贸易数据的GMM方法研究

本文通过建立SITC五位数分类商品与制造业28个行业的对照表,基于微观贸易数据测算了中国制造业28个行业的价格贸易条件,并采用动态面板GMM估计从行业层面分析了FDI对制造业价格贸易条件的影响。研究结果表明:首先,不是所有制造业行业的价格贸易条件都恶化,科技含量较高行业的价格贸易条件不断改善;其次,实证研究证明FDI与中国制造业价格贸易条件正相关,FDI不是造成中国制造业价格贸易条件恶化的因素;最后,增加制造业各行业的资本和科技投入,实施规模生产是改善制造业价格贸易条件的有效途径。