川西南山区耕地面积变化及社会经济驱动力分析——以四川省雅安市为例

该文根据1996~2006年土地利用变更调查数据和社会经济统计数据,针对雅安市的耕地面积变化趋势进行了分析,并用主成分分析和聚类分析方法,对引起耕地面积变化的驱动力因素进行了研究。研究结果表明,近11年来雅安市耕地面积总体呈线性下降,经历了缓慢减少→增加→急剧减少→缓慢减少的变化过程,且人均耕地面积也呈线性下降趋势。以第一、二主成分为自变量、耕地面积为因变量建立的回归方程表明,耕地面积变化与社会经济发展的综合实力和规模以及活跃度密切相关;指标型聚类分析的结果表明,影响雅安市耕地面积变化的驱动力因子为粮食产量因子、交通因子、油料产量因子和人口与经济因子。     

河南省耕地和城镇用地变化与经济发展的相关分析

以河南省1996-2005年的统计资料为基础,分析在经济发展过程中耕地面积的变化以及城镇用地的变化,并运用统计分析方法,对近十年来耕地和城镇用地变化与固定资产投资、人均GDP等经济指标进行相关分析.结果表明:耕地面积与固定资产投资、人均GDP呈正"U"型二次曲线相关;城镇用地与固定资产投资、人均GDP呈对数曲线相关.这说明随着经济的发展耕地和城镇用地将逐渐达到平衡状态.     

宁夏近18年来耕地面积动态变化及驱动力分析

[目的]以宁夏耕地面积为研究对象,分析耕地总面积、人均耕地面积及耕地利用程度动态变化趋势,并从经济、社会、人口、技术等方面选取影响耕地面积变化的12个驱动因子进行研究,分析各驱动因子对宁夏耕地面积的影响。[方法]选取1997~2014年宁夏耕地面积相关数据,首先运用数理统计法分析耕地面积变化趋势,然后采用主成分分析法对影响耕地面积变化的驱动因子进行分析和归纳。[结果]近18年来宁夏总耕地面积波动较大,呈现出先缓慢增加,后急剧减少,再快速增加,最后保持平稳的变化态势;虽然宁夏人均耕地面积高于全国水平,但是仍逐年下降且下降速度较快;耕地复种指数呈上升趋势,表明宁夏耕地利用率在逐年提高,但总体利用水平依然较低;经济发展水平、人口压力、农业生产技术以及农业结构调整是影响宁夏耕地面积变化的主要驱动力。[结论]宁夏耕地面积变化明显且受经济、人口、技术水平等因素影响较大。     

近10年来我国区域耕地面积变化比较研究

以1996～2006年期间我国耕地面积数量变化为基础,分析了耕地面积变化的区域差异;以GDP、人口、第一产业增加值、固定资产投资为关联因子,对影响耕地面积变化的经济社会因子进行了灰色关联分析及多元线性回归分析.结果显示:虽然耕地面积普遍减少,但我国区域耕地面积变化的引致因子差异显著,耕地利用与保护政策需要讲究区域性策略.     

近20年湖南省耕地变化及可持续利用研究

湖南省是全国的农业大省之一,选用GDP增长率、人口增长率和耕地面积减少率为主要分析指标,探讨了湖南省近20年来,经济、人口与耕地面积之间的关系:耕地减少的发生时间与经济发展的增长基本同步;针对耕地面临的一些问题提出了实现可持续利用的对策建议。     

重庆市土地利用与经济发展耦合关系分析

利用重庆市1996-2005 年数据,从耕地、建设用地的变化及其与经济发展的相互关系角度探讨土地利用与经济发展之间的耦合关系.分析表明:①重庆市地区生产总值、一产产值均与耕地面积变化呈显著负相关;②地区生产总值、非农增加值与建设用地面积耦合关系均呈极显著正相关;③重庆市固定资产投资与建设用地面积之间相关性达极显著水平;④土地利用与经济发展耦合关系只是历史上某一时期区域经济增长方式的表征之一,是土地利用集约和节约的水平的一种表现.     

芜湖市快速城市化过程中耕地变化研究

城市化水平是衡量一个区域社会经济发展程度的重要标志,而耕地保护是一个区域社会经济可持续发展的重要保障。正确处理城市化发展与耕地保护的关系,对于城市健康发展和合理利用土地资源具有重要意义。以1996~2012年芜湖市数据为基础,运用单因素线性回归模型,通过国内生产总值、固定资产投资和人口城市化率3个主要指标,分析芜湖市1996~2012年城市化发展与耕地数量变化之间的关系,探寻影响耕地变化的主导因素,预测未来短期内耕地数量变化趋势,从而有针对地提出耕地保护的有效对策。研究结果表明,自1996年以来,芜湖市处于城市化加速发展阶段,耕地数量变化显著,且与国内生产总值、固定资产投资和人口城市化率之间皆存在密切关系。为避免耕地资源的进一步减少,保障社会经济可持续发展,芜湖市应通过节约集约用地、积极开发耕地后备资源、加强耕地质量管护等方式进行耕地保护。     

耕地面积变化与经济发展水平的相关分析——以江苏十三个市为例

通过对江苏十三个市（1978－1996年）耕地面积变化和经济增长过程的分析,阐述了耕地面积变化量与国内生产总值变化量之间的相关性,并且根据耕地面积减少率与国内生产总值增长率的关系分析,并江苏十三个市划分为三种具体类型：（1）经济增长超前,耕地减少滞后;（2）经济增长滞后,耕地减少超前;（3）经济增长与耕地减少同步变化。最后,由上述分析得出一些结论和启示,并提出了正确处理耕地减少与经济发展关系的对策建议。     

青海省近10年耕地面积动态变化及驱动因子分析研究

该文采用SPSS主成分分析和聚类分析方法,对青海省1997～2007年耕地面积变化趋势以及变化因子进行综合分析研究。结果表明:近10年来青海省耕地面积总体呈下降趋势,且人均耕地资源也呈下降趋势。通过第一、第二主成分建立的回归模型表明,青海省耕地面积变化与该地区社会经济发展的强度和规模以及经济活动密度具有密切关系,聚类分析结果表明,粮食产量因子、油料因子、人口因子以及社会经济发展因子是影响青海省耕地面积变化的主要因素。     

安徽省耕地资源变化及驱动力研究

利用安徽省近10年来的耕地序列和人均耕地序列数据以及相关社会经济资料,宏观分析了"耕地动态平衡"政策实施以来耕地资源的时空动态变化规律.用灰色关联度法,定量研究了耕地变化的驱动因子,揭示耕地变化的驱动机制.研究表明:安徽省1997年以来耕地面积和人均耕地面积的变化分三个阶段,1997-2002年的缓慢减少期、2003-2004年的快速减少期和2005-2006年的增长期:耕地年均变化速率和人均耕地年均变化速率存在明显的空间差异,据此将全省分为5个不同的耕地资源变化区;耕地重心发生了转移,大体是稳定在淮北平原西北部;在近10年的不同阶段,影响耕地变化的驱动因子的主次地位发生了变化,其中,年末总人口一直是影响耕地变化的最主要的驱动因子,2003年以来非农业人口对耕地变化的影响不断增强.     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

The Effect of the Structural Adjustment Program on the Output,Prices and Exports of Major Agricultural Export Crops in Nigeria

The primary objective of this paper is to examine changes in the level of output, prices and exports of major export crops resulting from the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in Nigeria. THere two main sources of data: the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through its annual reports, Economic and Financial Review, and the Nigerian Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) through its Trade Summaries. Although the SAP led to appreciable increases in output and producer prices, its effects on exports were insignificant. The implications of these for the implementation of the program are explored.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Evaluating Alternative Policy Responses to Higher World Food Prices: The Case of Increasing Rice Prices in Madagascar

Higher world food prices have led many developing countries to adopt policies to mitigate the impact on low-income households. This article sets out a partial equilibrium framework to evaluate the efficiency, distributional, and revenue implications of alternative policy responses. The model is applied to evaluate tariff reductions and targeted transfers in Madagascar. Although lowering tariffs generates substantial efficiency gains, these accrue mainly to the top half of the welfare distribution, and poor net sellers are actually worse off. Developing a system of targeted direct transfers to poor households is likely to be a substantially more cost-effective approach to poverty alleviation.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Revealing different understandings of soil held by scientists and farmers in the context of soil protection and management

This paper aims to analyse and draw together results from similar studies in England, Switzerland and France which investigated farmers’ understanding of soil and compared it with that of scientists, researchers and advisors (collectively called scientists in this analysis). A range of methods were used across the three studies and different theoretical approaches, looking at forms of knowledge, local practice of knowledge production and conceptions of reality, were employed to explain the results. Despite the different contexts, methodologies and theoretical approaches in the three studies, the results reveal similar patterns of difference in farmer and scientist understanding of soil. In the English study, farmers demonstrate a ‘know-how’ form or intuitive working knowledge of soil while advisors rely on scientifically established forms of ‘know-why’ and seek to understand and explain soil processes. Similarly in the Swiss study farmers’ and scientists’ differing perceptions are directed and shaped by their respective aims, methods and context of work. In the French study, farmers and researchers are shown to have different conceptions of soil, they attribute different meaning to the same activities, and use different words and language to describe the same features. In all three studies understanding is shown to be cultural and contextual, as such an integrative theoretical framework is proposed.     

森林生物多样性评价模型的改进

针对2002年的评价模型中的不足,提出了新的改进后的森林生物多样性变化的评价模型,并在我国第六次森林资源清查(1999～2003)资料的基础上,对1973～2003年我国森林生物多样性的变化进行了补充评价。评价结果表明:我国森林生物多样性的压力越来越大,压力指数由1973年的100,上升到2003年的199.10,上升了1.99倍;森林物种多样性总体的下降趋势已有一定幅度的改变,森林物种多样性指数增加了31.12%。森林生态系统多样性和森林生物多样性先逐渐上升,尔后又下降,第六次森林资源清查时又有所恢复,并分别上升了4.67个百分点和17.90个百分点。