关于制定旅游产业政策的思考——以山西为例

制定加快旅游业发展的产业政策是振兴旅游业发展的需要,具有十分重要的现实意义。从制定旅游产业政策的意义与必要性及应注意的问题和遵循的原则、应当着重解决的主要问题等方面进行了论述,以山西为例,以振兴旅游产业实现旅游强省为目标,提出了制定旅游产业政策的总体构想。     

Externality Policy Reform: A General Equilibrium Analysis

We characterize Pareto‐improving and equilibrium‐preserving policy reforms in a second‐best (Diamond/Mirrlees) world with a consumption externality. A counterintuitive finding is that, starting from an initial equilibrium with no direct quantity control on the externality, it is possible that all Pareto‐improving and equilibrium‐preserving directions of change require an increase in a negative externality. We provide intuition for these results by establishing a nexus between Guesnerie's approach to designing (tax) policy reforms and the standard Kuhn–Tucker technique for identifying the manifold of feasible Pareto‐optimal states, given the instruments available to the policy maker.     

Cross-Industry Emission Permits Trading

The present paper examines the effectiveness of emission permits trading across industries. We find that, while permits trading in a competitive environment minimizes costs of compliance, it also enhances product market imperfections. We also find that a standard-setting regulation yields superior welfare results if policy makers have able information. Standard setting allows policy makers the flexibility of taking into account the existing imperfections in each industry. Although not surprising, this result has important policy implications in situations in which policy makers consider establishing permits trading between publicly owned dominant polluters and other industrial polluters. Since policy makers have able information on publicly-owned firms, it might be welfare improving to directly control emissions of the dominant publicly-owned polluters. Given that many of the major polluters in the real world are large firms in heavily concentrated industries many of which are also regulated, our result warrants policy makers' attention.     

中国互联网基础设施与产业结构优化关系研究

互联网基础设施对于提高产业发展质量、实现产业结构优化升级具有重要作用,同时其建设也需要由产业结构升级推动。基于互联网基础设施与产业结构优化之间的互动关系机理,建立向量自回归（VAR）模型,研究2003—2018年中国互联网基础设施与产业结构优化之间的相互影响关系。结果表明,产业结构合理化对中国互联网基础设施具有显著单向影响,但影响程度偏低;互联网基础设施对产业结构高级化具有显著单向影响,影响程度也较低;产业结构高级化与合理化之间具有双向影响关系。从提高产业发展对互联网基础设施建设的引领作用、扩大互联网基础设施覆盖范围、促进传统产业转型升级等方面提出对策建议。     

高新技术企业认定与企业创新效率：提升还是抑制——基于中国上市公司的反事实估计

高新技术企业认定作为中国特定的产业政策,对企业研发活动和创新策略具有重要影响。在区分企业技术研发阶段和技术转化阶段创新效率的基础上,利用2008—2017年中国上市公司14 156个微观样本数据,采用三阶段DEA模型对样本企业创新效率进行测度,并通过反事实估计和中介效应模型,探究高新技术企业认定政策对技术研发阶段、技术转化阶段企业创新效率的影响。结果表明,政策对上市公司技术研发阶段的创新效率具有促进作用,但对技术转化阶段的创新效率具有显著抑制效应;政策对不同企业主体的影响具有差异性,其中,对国有企业、实施股权激励以及未获得风险投资的企业影响更显著;政策通过缓解企业融资约束、提高长期负债两条路径影响企业技术研发阶段的创新效率,同时政策也引致企业研发投入挤占营业成本、广告支出等经营费用,进而抑制企业技术转化阶段的创新效率。     

Innovation,externalities, and the state: a synergetic approach

A politicoeconomic model dealing with the interaction of private innovation and public regulation is presented. Causes and effects of this interdependence are investigated with special regard to the externalities which accompany innovations and make them into a partly public good. Our main hypothesis is that the collective character of inventive activity gives rise to synergetic effects. This hypothesis is supported by a microfoundation based on a nonlinear Markov process. Furthermore, the consequences of such synergetic innovation processes are examined: persistent disequilibrium, multiple equilibria, lock-in, path dependence, and chaos. Finally, some policy implications are derived concerning the effects of ageneral public promotion of innovations and of aselective industrial policy.     

农户对奶牛补贴政策的评价及期望——基于河北、辽宁两省农户问卷调查的分析

本文以河北、辽宁两省农户问卷调查数据为基础,对农户对我国奶牛补贴政策的评价与期望进行了分析。结果表明:农户对我国奶牛补贴政策的总体评价较高,但政策在增加产量、抵御养殖风险等方面的作用效果只对部分农户比较显著,未被广泛认可,不具有长效作用。因此,必须因地制宜地完善补贴政策的标准和操作流程,创新信贷担保和抵押方式,加强对奶牛补贴政策的宣传力度,建立奶牛养殖业的长效发展机制。     

R&D补贴与商前采购:互补还是互替——创新政策过程视角的比较研究

科技创新体系绩效不仅取决于单项政策效果，更取决于政策间的组合效应。运用两组案例，从政策过程视角对R&D补贴与商前采购（PCP）的项目筛选机制和项目管理机制进行比较分析，结果表明，PCP与R&D补贴同时存在互补和互替关系。作为一种新兴创新政策工具，PCP不仅同样具备缓解研发融资约束的功能，还存在两个方面的潜在优势：一是有利于采购方发挥需求信息和应用环境信息方面的优势；二是在政策执行机制上更加精准，特别适用于实现“点的突破”。积极引入新工具扩充创新政策“工具箱”，在认清工具属性基础上，发挥各种工具的独特优势，对优化创新政策组合设计，提升科技创新体系绩效具有重要价值。     

我国产业发展的低端锁定困境与破解路径—基于矫正城镇化扭曲视角的实证分析

经济发展与社会结构变迁之间的矛盾运动关系表明,扭曲的城镇化发展模式是造成我国产业发展低端锁定的重要的社会结构原因.文章将我国的产业发展低端锁定问题拓展至工业化弱质和服务业滞后两个部门,将城镇化扭曲投影到城镇化建设的动因扭曲、主体扭曲和功能扭曲三个维度,构建"两部门?三维度"分析框架,采用典型化事实与评价指标体系相结合的方法分析了我国产业发展低端锁定的困境,并构建PLS-SEM结构方程模型,实证探讨了矫正城镇化扭曲,实现我国产业发展低端解锁的路径选择.研究结论表明,我国的工业化弱质问题表现为结构演进受阻和效率提升缓慢,我国的服务业滞后问题表现为生产性服务业的配套生产能力和生活性服务业的保障消费能力不足.改善地方财税制度可以显著地降低土地城镇化水平,加强对农民工劳动技能和素质的培养可以显著地降低农民工城镇化水平,在供给侧提升基本公共服务供给水平可以显著地降低城市病水平,进而矫正我国城镇化建设的动因扭曲、主体扭曲和功能扭曲.矫正城镇化扭曲对于改善我国工业化弱质和服务业滞后问题具有显著的促进作用,可以推动我国产业发展的低端解锁.     

产业集群视角下中小企业协同创新系统实证研究

资源有限性制约了中小企业创新能力的提升,通过协同创新突破资源限制成为中小企业创新的新范式。从产业集群视角出发,研究了中小企业协同创新现状,指出中小企业协同创新过程中存在的主要问题.构建了产业集群视角下中小企业协同创新系统,阐述了中小企业协同创新过程,并分别从外部和内部两个方面分析了系统运行机制;最后,以合肥市家电产业集群中小企业协同创新系统构建为例,证实了模型的实践性并提出了相关管理建议。     

Liberal parentalism

What normative constraints should bind parents (or policy makers) if they intervene in the choices of children (or constituencies) whose preferences evolve over time? For a sophisticated child who anticipates correctly his preference change, we prove that generically there exist parental interventions that are Pareto improving over the backward induction path that the child will follow on his own. If, in contrast, the child misperceives his future preferences, Pareto improving interventions might not exist, and even nudges might be painfully sobering. The parent may then choose to minimize the maximal disappointment along time that her benevolent intervention would cause.     

我国绿色食品产业发展“结构制约”的实证研究

从规模、结构、效率及协调等方面构建绿色食品产业发展分析框架,指出绿色食品产业发展是一个基于结构不断优化的产业演化过程。采用灰色关联分析与信息熵理论和方法对我国绿色食品产业发展的产品结构、地区结构、组织结构等的"结构制约"状况进行实证分析,并得出基本结论:在绿色食品产业快速发展中,产业结构性障碍矛盾突出。提出积极转变产业发展方式,通过调整与优化产业结构、改善效率以促进产业协调有序发展的政策建议。     

创新性与新创企业成长间关系的实证分析——合法性的中介效应

以1027个新创企业为样本,对创新性与新创企业成长的关系进行回归分析,并检验了合法性对两者关系的中介效用。结果显示:创新性能够促进新创企业的成长和绩效提高;新创企业通过获得协会会员身份和政治身份来获取合法性,从而削弱管制约束和行业约束;合法性在创新性与新创企业成长之间起部分中介作用。     

Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models

This paper studies the nonlinear adjustment between industrial production and carbon prices – coined as ‘the carbon-macroeconomy relationship’ – in the EU 27. We model carbon price returns and industrial production as nonlinear and state-dependent, with dynamics depending on the sign and magnitude of past realization of returns and the growth of industrial production. Our findings show that (i) macroeconomic activity is likely to affect carbon prices with a lag, due to the specific institutional constraints of this environmental market; (ii) the joint dynamics of industrial production and carbon prices seem adequately captured by two-regime threshold vector error-correction and two-regime Markov-switching VAR models compared to linear models as main competitors. The regime-switching models proposed are profoundly checked for their economic content and statistical congruency, and are found to provide a sound statistical framework for a comprehensive analysis of the carbon-macroeconomy relationship.     

The innovation performance of MNE subsidiaries and local embeddedness: evidence from an emerging economy

We examine the innovation performance of MNE subsidiaries and their embeddedness in sources of local knowledge in a policy framework within the context of an emerging economy. Based on first-hand evidence from multiple case studies, we found that: (1) there was variability between the subsidiaries in terms of the cumulative manner and speed at which they improved their innovation performance over time, using progressively levels of accumulated capability as a proxy; (2) these differences in innovation performance improvement reflected heterogeneity between the subsidiaries in terms of the learning efforts made to acquire knowledge from local organizations; (3) the varied frequency in which the subsidiaries developed such local relationships reflects their differing responses to a common industrial policy that makes use of tax incentives to stimulate such links. The paper reveals the limitations of this conventional type of industrial policy in stimulating industrial development and the embeddedness of MNEs. It also suggests that a new direction for policy, which incorporates public–private negotiations and a focus on the firm-centred building of innovation capabilities, should be pursued in order to accelerate the innovation performance progress of latecomer firms.     

Institutions and industrial policy in Brazil after two decades: have we built the needed institutions?

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to examine the design and implementation of industrial policy in Brazil based on their capacity to affect the prevailing institutions. We argue that the main reason for the failure of policies in Brazil, and in Latin America, is their inability to induce persistent changes in firms’ innovative behavior. Based on the analysis of national innovation indicators, and on previous empirical studies, we demonstrate that the Brazilian industrial policy was not able to change the prevailing conventions. The main problems related to this fragility are: institutional problems and related to industrial policy development conventions; serious coordination problems; maintaining a macroeconomic policy that is not convergent toward industrial policy efforts; policy instruments that were not able to change prevailing conventions, such as low R&D and innovative expenditures; a set of strategic choices that are inconsistent with innovation, technological catch-up and structural change.     

Identifying optimal contingent fiscal policies in a business cycle model

Optimal fiscal policy is indeterminate in a dynamic and stochastic environment. The complete characterization of the fiscal policy requires the use of identification constraints. In the literature either capital taxes or debt have been restricted to be not contingent on the state of nature. We propose a different type of identification constraints to have both policy variables state-contingent. Three alternative identification conditions are considered: (i) restrictions on the dynamic and stochastic behavior of the debt path; (ii) an exogenous debt path, and (iii) an exogenous belief function. The main result indicates that the optimal capital tax is zero and constant over the business cycle for any of the identification conditions used, suggesting that is optimal for the government to use debt return as a shock absorber, keeping capital taxes constant. The result is quite different from the previous literature, which obtains very volatile capital taxes. JEL Classification: E62, H21. We are grateful to Alfonso Novales, Víctor Ríos-Rull, Javier Vallés and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. We acknowledge financial support from Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología (Ruiz and Pérez: BEC 2003-039; Manzano: BEC 2002-01995). Baltasar Manzano also acknowledges support from Xunta de Galicia (PGIDIT03PXIC30001PN, PGIDIT03CSO30001PR).     

Use of borrowed start-up capital and micro enterprises in Mexico: existence of liquidity constraints

Using the National Survey of Micro enterprises (ENAMIN, Encuesta Nacional de Micronegocios) data I test for the presence of liquidity constraints for obtaining start-up capital in Mexico’s credit markets (formal and informal). I use the bivariate probit model with partial observability to recognize two important decisions in the credit allocation process: first, whether an owner of a micro enterprise wants to apply start-up loan and, second, whether financial institutions decide to provide or not to provide the loan. Finally, I compare the results from this model to those of a simple probit model that looks at whether a micro enterprise owner gets funding or not (i.e. the probit model implicitly assumes that no liquidity constraints exist). The findings of this study show that there is substantial heterogeneity in the socioeconomic background of borrowers, as well as in the sources for start-up capital employed by micro enterprises in Mexico. Moreover, there is clear evidence of liquidity constraints in the market for start-up capital that could hinder the creation and growth of small enterprises. Applying the findings of the study, policy makers could fundamentally increase the effectiveness in establishing an economic environment that fosters growth.

Constructing Clinical Use: An Activity-Theoretical Perspective on Implementing New Technology

Abstract

The paper presents recent insights from the ongoing FORLEARN project, which aims to develop Foresight theory and practise by supporting the sharing of experience (‘mutual learning’) in Europe. Six functions of Foresight for policy-making are elaborated on:

• (1)?Informing policy: generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policymakers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design.

• (2)?Facilitating policy implementation: enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of the current situation and future challenges, as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders.

• (3)?Embedding participation in policy-making: facilitating the participation of civil society in the policy-making process, thereby improving its transparency and legitimacy.

• (4)?Supporting policy definition: jointly translating outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy definition and implementation.

• (5)?Reconfiguring the policy system: in a way that makes it more apt to address long-term challenges.

• (6)?Symbolic function: indicating to the public that policy is based on rational information.

The relationship between these functions and the tensions that can arise when a Foresight exercise attempts to address more than one function are discussed. Possible approaches for Foresight practice to better achieve the targeted impact on policy-making are outlined and emerging guidelines for improving Foresight practice are presented.     

NATIONAL SECURITY AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY: THE NEED FOR A PUBLIC CHOICE PERSPECTIVE

This paper argues that the issues raised by the industrial policy debate are as much political as they are economic. There is every reason to believe that, without substantial reform of political institutions, efforts to administer a rational new industrial policy would soon degenerate into the type of inconsistent morass of special-interest-generated policies which industrial policy advocates rightfully criticize as our de facto set of industrial policies.
This important political dimension has been overlooked by many industrial policy advocates. An important exception is Robert Reich, who has proposed a new centralized industrial policy agency in hopes that the battle of conflicting interests would promote greater aggregate efficiency. We argue that on theoretical grounds, however, such centralization might either increase or decrease efficiency. The competition of the military services under the Defense Department gives us a close analogue for study. Unfortunately, however, our review of efficiency in defense policy suggests that this would be a very poor model on which to base a broader industrial policy. To promote substantial increases in defense and industrial policy efficiency appears to require that much more fundamental institutional reforms be considered.