碳排放权交易制度的若干问题研究

温室气体减排的实践表明,相比传统的气候变化治理措施,设计合理的碳排放权交易制度能以更快的速度和更低的成本实现减排目标。碳排放权交易制度能在污染物排放总量不变的条件下,赋予排放主体更多的灵活性,用以选择成本最低的减排行动。目前,国际上主要以《京都议定书》的相关规定为碳排放交易制度建立的法律基础,以产权理论和集体行动理论为理论基础。在研究碳排放权制度相关问题时,应立足国际视角将碳排放权作为人类的环境权益加以考量,并认识到碳排放权交易的双重属性。     

基于联合均值与方差模型的碳排放权影响因素分析北大核心

碳达峰和碳中和背景下,研究碳排放权价格对我国制定节能减排的宏观经济政策、相关金融机构开展碳金融业务、减排企业及个人投资者提供决策等均产生有利影响。论文应用统计模型和机器学习分析碳排放权金融数据,选取碳排放权交易影响指标,包括能源价格、经济发展水平、国家碳市场指标、天气环境、传统金融市场因素等五个方面的指标,对湖北碳排放权交易建立统计模型进行探究分析,影响湖北碳排放权投资收益高低的中证100指数指标具有正向影响,影响湖北碳排放权投资风险的汇率、汽油价格两个指标为负向影响。结论可以供投资者决策参考。     

我国碳减排制度选择：国际贸易的视角

碳税和碳排放权交易制度已成为我国应对气候变化、有效进行碳减排的两个重要的制度选择。由于我国国际贸易中的隐含碳排放量占国内排放总量的比重较高,且国际贸易对国内碳排放水平有较大影响,国际贸易成为我国碳减排制度选择的重要影响因素之一。我国出口贸易隐含碳提高了我国碳排放总量,国际贸易和产业国际转移提高我国碳排放总量并影响我国国内部分行业碳排放水平。因此,国际贸易成为我国选择碳税还是碳排放权交易机制的重要参考。同时,我国实行不同碳减排制度对国际贸易产生不同的影响：开征碳税将对我国国际贸易产生四大影响,实施碳排放权交易机制也将对我国国际贸易产生三大影响。     

碳排放交易涉税几何

正开征碳税和建立碳排放权交易市场是目前控制碳排放的两大重要手段。自从《京都议定书》确立了碳排放交易制度,以欧盟碳排放权交易体系和北美芝加哥气候交易所为代表的全球碳排放权交易发展迅速。中国也已经在部分省市进行这方面的试点。作为减少碳排放的市场化机制,碳排放权交易制度的实质是碳排放权的有偿取得,它和碳税既相互联系,也相互区别(详见表1),各自发挥作用,共同推动全球温室气体减排,实践中需要考虑这两种制度的有机协调。碳排放权交易市场的发     

碳排放权交易定价研究综述

《京都议定书》的问世使碳排放权在低碳经济时代成为一种稀缺商品,而该"商品"的定价问题就是碳排放权交易体系的核心关注点。文章对排放权定价的研究现状进行了系统综述,内容主要包括:碳排放权交易的基本定义、碳排放权定价理论以及国外和国内对碳排放权定价的研究现状。其中,国外对碳排放权定价的研究主要集中在碳排放权价格影响因素和定价模型两方面;国内的研究除影响因素和定价模型外,还对碳排放权的定价基础—碳货币和中国碳排放权的定价策略展开过讨论。文章拟通过较为系统的介绍,以期为未来碳交易定价的相关研究提供一定的参考。     

碳排放权价格的影响因素分析

随着国际碳交易市场的不断发展,越来越多的国家参与其中,为占据碳交易市场的主导地位,定价权成了各国之间争夺的焦点.文章基于碳排放权及其交易市场的特征,从金融市场视角分析碳排放权价格的影响因素:一级市场中,主要表现为减排目标、减排技术、管理成本以及市场风险等;二级市场中,主要表现为能源价格、预测价格水平等.并从碳排放权期货交易市场、碳排放权价值估值方法、碳交易风险管理体系和碳金融衍生品交易市场等方面提出建议,籍以提高我国在国际碳排放权交易市场中的定价权的地位.     

我国碳排放权交易法律构造的疏失及完善

科学完备的法律体系是引导和规范碳交易制度有效运行的必要条件。在履行国际减排义务和国内产业升级的推动下,中央和各地方陆续出台相关的立法,构建起我国碳排放权交易法律制度的基本框架,但其中不免有牵强疏失之处。从域外国家和地区的实践经验来看,碳排放权交易制度的良性发展离不开政府监管以及与之相适应的法律监管体系。鉴于此,有必要完善我国碳排放权交易法律构造的疏失之处,在制定统一高位的单行法基础之上辅之必要的配套制度进而落实各主体的法律责任,以实现碳排放权交易立法的初衷。     

单一碳定价制度和复合碳定价制度实施效果比较研究

基于1990—2018年全球41个国家的面板数据,考虑碳定价制度的滞后效应,从减排效果和经济影响两个方面实证研究了单一碳定价制度和复合碳定价制度的实施效果,发现从减排效果看,单一碳排放权交易制度比复合制度的减排效果更好;从经济影响看,复合制度对经济的负面影响程度低,其对经济影响的波动性介于单一碳税制度和单一碳排放权交易制度之间。结合我国当前的碳减排情况,针对我国碳定价制度体系建设提出相应建议。     

论碳排放权交易的法律规制及其改进

碳排放权交易制度是一种通过市场机制解决外部性问题的环境制度安排,其对我国气候变化应对和以雾霾污染为代表的大气污染治理都是最为有效的途径之一。我国应按照"用制度保护生态环境"的要求,在新《环境保护法》中将碳排放权交易制度定位为环境保护基本法律制度,并从碳排放总量控制机制的合理确定、碳排放权交易配额的分配、定价机制的选择、政府监管机制的健全等方面,来健全中国语境范式的碳排放权交易制度。     

国际碳排放权交易制度比较研究

为减缓全球变暖的趋势,打造人类宜居环境,实现可持续发展,构建体系完善的碳排放权交易制度体系势在必行。本文通过比较分析世界各国碳排放权交易制度的发展历程和阶段性成果,结合我国碳排放权交易制度发展现状,总结其为我国碳排放权交易制度体系建立带来的启发,以取长补短,实现绿色发展。     

广东碳排放权交易市场发展问题初探

国内外碳交易需求增加很快。广东碳市场的发展,有碳生产力居全国前列、碳减排技术创新能力强、泛珠区域合作密切等优势;也有减排约束不强,企业诚信不足,金融服务欠缺等制约因素,还有相关国际规则变化和交易所竞争的风险。可取的对策是：加强省内减排约束,逐步发展强制减排;发展碳交易市场的国内外合作;开发碳金融产品,加快减排技术创新;稳步设置交易机构,防止业务过度竞争;利用规则和技术条件,培养使用碳交易人才。     

碳中和目标下基于GA-BP神经网络的碳交易定价模型及其模拟研究

系统剖析了欧盟碳排放交易体系,在厘清GA-BP神经网络原理的基础上构建了基于GA-BP神经网络的碳交易定价模型,用以刻画碳交易价格的影响因素,并结合情景设置、数值模拟不同情景下不同因素对碳交易价格的作用机理。研究结果表明GA-BP神经网络对于碳交易价格模拟具有可靠性,在不同经济发展水平和能源结构情景下碳交易价格变化较大,构建区域碳排放交易体系不仅能促进温室气体减排,还能优化能源结构,其关键在于形成与碳排放交易体系相适应、相配套的体制机制,营造契合碳中和目标的政策环境。论文旨在为我国碳交易市场运行机制优化提供理论参考,为我国碳中和与高质量发展目标的实现提供有益增补。     

Global impacts of the Kyoto agreement: results from the MS-MRT model

This paper analyzes the economic impacts on different regions of the world of a global agreement to limit carbon emissions. A multi-sector, multi-region trade model (MS-MRT) is developed that focuses on the international trade aspects of climate change policy. These include the distribution of impacts on economic welfare, international trade and investment across regions, the spillover effects of carbon emission limits in Annex 1 countries on non-Annex 1 countries, carbon leakage, changes in terms of trade and industry output, and the effects of international emissions trading. Our central estimates are presented with a set of sensitivity tests to assess the extent to which our conclusions depend on elasticity and baseline assumptions. A technical appendix presents algebraic details of the model structure and calibration.     

制造业集聚与碳减排空间溢出效应研究--基于技术交易视角的检验

为了对产业集聚、技术交易与二氧化碳排放效应进行分析,对中国30个省份2003—2017年的面板数据进行实证研究。结果发现:(1)总体上,制造业集聚会导致地区碳排放量增加,但是技术交易与制造业集聚的交互项有利于碳排放量减少。(2)分地区来看,东部地区技术交易促进了产业集聚的技术溢出,从而有助于碳减排效应;中部地区二氧化排放与制造业集聚和技术交易的关系并不显著;西部地区仅仅符合传统EKC假说,未发挥出技术交易的重要作用。以上结论表明:对于我国这样处于后发优势的国家,初始技术水平不高,内生创新动力有限,基于技术交易的异质性技术流动作用非常重要。     

Carbon Abatement and International Spillovers

Carbon abatement policies in large open economies affect both the allocation of domestic resources and international market prices. A change in international prices implies an indirect secondary burden or benefit for all trading countries. Based on simulations with a large-scale computable general equilibrium model of global trade and energy use, we show that international spillovers have important welfare implications for carbon abatement policies designed to meet exogenous emission reduction targets. We present a decomposition of the total welfare effect of carbon abatement policies into a primary domestic market effect (at constant international prices) and a secondary international spillover impact as a result of changes in international prices. This decomposition reveals the extent to which domestic abatement costs are increased or decreased as a result of the impact of carbon abatement on international prices.     

International Experience,China’s Development and Prospect of Carbon Market Construction

Carbon market, which is capable of scientific quantifying and marked-based pricing of carbon emission, is an important way for countries to achieve the target of carbon emission reduction. The global carbon market, after more than ten years of development, has developed a mature mechanism. China started the trial of carbon market in 2011. After ten years of exploration, the national carbon trading market was officially launched in mid-July 2021. Against the backdrop of carbon neutrality, the national carbon market will shoulder a greater mission of carbon emission reduction and speed up its financialization and internationalization. However, it should take a dialectical attitude toward the opportunities and risks of carbon market financialization. In the future, China can promote the development of carbon market through efforts to develop market participants, clarify the attributes of carbon finance, prevent potential risks of carbon finance, improve the connection mechanism with the international carbon market, and innovate carbon finance services.     

Carbon pricing and terms of trade effects for China and India: A general equilibrium analysis

Using country-specific dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, this paper estimates carbon prices in China and India, and compares the effects of carbon pricing policies under terms of trade effects. Estimated carbon prices are higher in China due to differences in emission intensity and in the rate of deployment of new technologies in the models. Differences in carbon prices open up the possibility of carbon trading between the two countries to achieve mitigation objectives. Further, under assumptions about different exchange rate regimes and international fossil fuel prices, the effects of carbon pricing policies on the two economies are mostly similar in terms of direction but, expectedly, different in terms of magnitude. Terms of trade effects could exacerbate carbon pricing effects to a greater degree in China as the country is significantly more dependent than India on external trade and investment. Policymakers should factor in terms of trade effects while designing or evaluating carbon pricing policies in the two countries.     

考虑港口收费管制的进出口贸易竞争研究

考虑港口的收费管制因素,建立了进出口贸易竞争模型。该模型由一个出口国和两个进口国组成,且各国都拥有一个港口,位于出口国的两家公司均向两个进口国销售商品,并在各个进口国展开市场竞争（古诺竞争或伯川德竞争）,各贸易国的港口根据其是否存在价格管制确定港口收费。针对进出口公司的每种竞争模式,得到了不同的港口收费管制组合下各贸易国的港口收费、港口利润和社会福利,并将竞争均衡结果进行了比较。研究发现： （1）在进出口公司古诺竞争模式下,若三个贸易国的港口都无收费管制（有收费管制）且进出口产品的差异较大 （小）时,各贸易国的社会福利和港口利润均更高; （2）在进出口公司伯川德竞争模式下,若进出口产品的差异较大 （小）,则出口国的港口利润主要取决于港口收费 （贸易量）,而进口国恰好相反; （3）当进出口产品的差异较大 （小）时,进出口公司在古诺 （伯川德）竞争模式下各贸易国的社会福利、港口利润以及港口使用费都更高。     

International emission permit markets with refunding

We propose a blueprint for an international emission permit market such as the EU trading scheme. Each country decides on the amount of permits it wants to offer. A fraction of these permits is freely allocated, the remainder is auctioned. Revenues from the auction are collected in a global fund and reimbursed to member countries in fixed proportions. We show that international permit markets with refunding lead to outcomes in which all countries tighten the issuance of permits and are better off compared to standard international permit markets. If the share of freely allocated permits is sufficiently small, we obtain approximately socially optimal emission reductions.     

A study of legal attributes of carbon emission rights in carbon trading

Clean Development Mechanism （CDM） has given birth to an international carbon trading market prosperity, which provides developing countries with valuable opportunity to address climate change issues right along with economic development and environmental improvement to achieve sustainable development. However, most studies of CDM focus on economics, and few on its legal problems. CDM involves too many aspects. And the clear legal attribute of trading object is the basis of progress of the transaction and also the start point of legal protection. Therefore, this paper in accordance with the inherent principle of property rights economics, and environmental economics in CDM, only discusses CDM carbon emission right legal interpretation and its attribution. The paper recommends that in order to ensure and promote the carbon emission right trading, carbon emission right should be attributed into the system of real rights to be regulated by Real Right Law. In this way, carbon emission right can gain exclusive power of possession and use, which can achieve a clear right definition of environmental goods in line with Coase＇s theory to protect Chinese profit in carbon trading market and promote the development of the carbon trading market further.