The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism

This paper studies the impacts on economic growth of a small tourism-driven economy caused by an increase in the growth rate of international tourism demand. We present a formal model and empirical evidence. The ingredients of the dynamic model are a large population of intertemporally optimizing agents and an AK technology representing tourism production. The model shows that an increase in the growth of tourism demand leads to transitional dynamics with gradually increasing economic growth and increasing terms of trade. In our empirical application, an econometric methodology is applied to annual data of Antigua and Barbuda from 1970 to 2008. We perform a cointegration analysis to look for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables of economic growth, international tourism earnings and the real exchange rate. The exercise confirms the theoretical findings.     

Educational tourism and its implications on economic growth in Malaysia

The effect of educational tourism on Malaysia’s economic growth is examined in this study by extending the Solow growth model. This study uses the sample from 2002:Q1 to 2014:Q4. The newly developed Bayer–Hanck combined tests for cointegration and the Granger causality test were employed to examine the long-run and causal relationships among the variables. The empirical findings suggest that economic growth, educational tourism, and other determinants are cointegrated. Educational tourism has a bi-directional causal relationship with economic growth in the short-run but there is a uni-directional Granger causality runs from educational tourism to economic growth. This study provides an essential insight for Malaysia to create policies that promote educational tourism, thereby encouraging economic growth in the long-run.     

Estimating the tourism induced environmental Kuznets curve in France

Abstract

France has retained its position as the world’s favourite tourism destination. Accounting for around 83 million visitors and 4.2% of the total employment, the tourism sector in France contributes to nearly 9% of the total GDP. However, as reported by the World Tourism Organization, road and air travel related to tourism activities account for approximately 10% of the total CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere, thereby contributing to severe air pollution. Thus, initiatives are necessary to prevent environmental damage that could have a corresponding detrimental effect on the tourism industry itself and slow down the country’s economic growth. This study utilises a vector error correction model (VECM) to investigate the relationship between polluting emissions, GDP levels, and tourism flows in France to test the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for the period 1995–2014. Additionally, based on a joint analysis of long-run parameters and causality links, appropriate policy strategies are proposed to promote robust and sustainable long-run economic growth.     

Tourism and inequality: A relook on the Kuznets curve

The study explores the impact of the tourism industry on income inequality upon a panel set of countries, classified in accordance with their levels of economic development. The countries are classified into three clusters based on their per capita GDP, the volume of international trade, and foreign direct investment inflows. The income inequality was measured using the GINI score. The long-run relationship between tourism receipts and GINI income inequality was explored for a panel set of forty-one countries over the period 1995 to 2016. The study concludes that earnings from tourism have varying impacts on the three clustered sets of countries. The inequality index of the highly developed countries remains unaffected by the earnings from tourism. The developed countries show Kuznets curve behaviour as far as the relationship between tourism and inequality is concerned. The developing countries exhibit an inverted Kuznets curve behaviour between tourism receipts and inequality of income.     

Industry level analysis of tourism-economic growth in the United States

We investigate the relationship between economic growth and six tourism-related sub-industries (accommodation, air transportation, shopping, food and beverage, other transportation, and recreation and entertainment) in the United States in 1998–2017. Except for the lodging and the food and beverage sectors, no long-run relationship exists between other tourism sub-industries and economic growth. We uncover a unidirectional Granger causality from economic growth to each of the sub-industries. Causality is also found between the tourism industries but predominantly from industries providing local offerings (food, entertainment, shopping) to those delivering cross-destination goods and services. Our results suggest that tourism investment could be successful in the long-run even during periods of economic stagnation. In the short-run, however, tourism sectors could benefit from economic growth and tourism-related investment should take a cue from the general economy. Additionally, tourism-related investment and marketing efforts in the U.S. may wish to focus on the food, shopping, and leisure sectors.     

Can tourism be a key sector in reducing income inequality? An empirical investigation for Turkey

The aim of the study is to investigate the nexus between tourism and income inequality by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) test cover the period 1974–2015 in Turkey. Findings indicated that the variables are cointegrated and an increase in tourism has a positive effect on income inequality, while economic growth and trade openness have a negative effect both in the long-run and short-run. Results also denote that tourism will decrease income inequality with the expansion of tourism activities and the spread of tourism throughout society. In other words, the tourism-related Kuznets Curve hypothesis is valid for Turkey.     

The impact of tourism on deficit in balance of payments of Pakistan: an application of bounds testing approach to cointegration

The current study is intended to analyze the long-run relationship between deficit in balance of payments (BOPs) and tourism for the period of 1976–2015 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The findings of the paper exposed an indirect relationship between tourism and BOP deficit in the context of Pakistan economy, while deficit balance of trade, real effective exchange rate, and deficit in fiscal balance have a positive and significant association with the deficit in the BOPs in the long run. Based on the findings, it is recommended that policies should be devised that promote the tourism industry of Pakistan as it would be helpful in reducing the deficit in the BOPs.     

Quality and endogenous tourism: An empirical approach

We propose a theoretical model and an empirical study that highlight the role of quality of tourism services and endogenous tourism in long-run economic growth. We study a theoretical growth model of international trade where tourism is the growth engine and quality of tourism services has a positive impact on long-term growth. We also provide an empirical analysis to test the relation between tourism, quality and economic growth in Spain over the period 1970–2010. Our results show that in the long run, tourist arrivals, quality of tourism accommodations, and foreign GDP have a positive effect on Spanish GDP. In the short term, changes in economic growth appear to lead to growth in tourist arrivals. Our findings support a two-way causal relationship between real GDP growth and tourism growth in Spain.     

The relationship between tourism,CO2 emissions and economic growth: a case of Mediterranean countries

This study explores the impact of tourism on economic growth considering CO₂ emissions utilizing panel data techniques for a sample of Mediterranean countries. The cointegration tests reveal that there is a positive long-run equilibrium between tourism, CO₂ emissions and economic growth. This positive long-run relationship may suggest that tourism increases the level of CO₂ emissions and has a statistically significant impact on economic growth in Mediterranean countries. Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011. Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870–876.) test results reveal that the tourism-led growth hypothesis, which suggests that tourism contributes to economic growth, is valid for Egypt, Italy, and Spain. Additionally, there exists a bidirectional relationship between tourism and economic growth both in Morocco and Turkey.     

Impact of tourism on CO2 emission: evidence from Pakistan

This study investigates the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission–tourist arrival–growth in Pakistan by taking time series data from the period of 1972 to 2013. The study applied three approaches of co-integration (autoregressive distributed lag bounds test, Johansen and Juselius and Gregory and Hansen structural break test) to confirm the valid long-run positive interaction between CO₂ emission and tourist arrivals. The robustness of cointegrating vectors is further checked using fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least square tests and results validate the long-run coefficients. The results of variance decomposition method exhibit the uni-directional causality between CO₂ emission and tourist arrivals running from tourist arrival to CO₂ emission. It was therefore noted that policies which moderate the influence of tourism development to emission are necessary for reducing the harmful effect of tourist activities and also to increase the impact of tourism upon the economic growth. The study may guide policy-makers in formulating categorical energy and tourism development policies for sustainable growth for long periods.     

International tourism and consumer prices in Pakistan: a wavelet-based analysis

This study aims to investigate the relationship between the tourism activities and price level in Pakistan by using monthly data set from 1972 to 2016. In this study, aggregated as well as disaggregated price level have been considered. Co-integration results suggest significant long-run relationship between tourism and all price level of goods and services except fuel and lightning. Results of the wavelet transformation show a strong variation in short-run. The results of the wavelet transformation coherence also show an in-phase as well as out-phase both associations between the prices and tourism receipts in the mid-term and long-term periods.     

Dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis of tourism demand for Singapore

The objective of this study is to investigate tourism demand for Singapore using heterogeneous dynamic panel estimation methods. A binary variable representing the operation of Integrated Resorts (IRs), as well as income and real exchange rate, are included as determinants of tourism demand growth. Using seasonally adjusted and actual/raw quarterly data of 16 origin countries, our study shows that the pooled mran group (PMG) estimator is able to provide consistent and efficient estimates of long-run relationships between tourism demand and the determinants. The PMG results show that the long-run income (price) elasticity is positively (negatively) significant, with an elasticities range between 0.915 and 3.05 (?0.275 and ?0.34). In addition, the study reveals that the IRs contribute to tourism demand growth, especially in attracting tourists from Asia. In the long term, tourism demand by the Asian markets is less income-sensitive than that of the non-Asian counterparts.     

Nonlinear ARDL estimation of tourism demand for Puerto Rico from the USA

This study estimates the long-run demand for tourism for Puerto Rico (1970–2016) from the USA. Since income elasticity may not be symmetric through business cycles, it becomes necessary to account for the asymmetric impact of changes in income on tourism demand. To this end, the study utilizes the nonlinear ARDL framework of Shin et al. (2014) to investigate the asymmetric cointegration. The results indicate the existence of an asymmetric or nonlinear cointegration relationship between Puerto Rico's tourism demand and its determinants. The long-run asymmetric income elasticities suggest that a 1% increase in US's real per capita GDP leads to a 1.9% increase in Puerto Rico's tourism earnings, while a 1% decrease in US's real per capita GDP produces a 4.8% reduction in tourism receipts.     

Asymmetric impact of oil prices,exchange rate,and inflation on tourism demand in Pakistan: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL

This study scrutinized the asymmetric impact of oil prices, exchange rate, and inflation on tourism demand in Pakistan using [Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014) Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in honor of peter schmidt (pp. 281–314). New York, NY: Springer] nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. The NARDL bounds test examined the existence of cointegration in study variables, including CO₂ emissions, institutional quality, oil prices, exchange rate, inflation, and tourism demand. The evidence proposes that disregarding the intrinsic nonlinearities may misinform inference. The estimated NARDL model affirmed long-run negative and significant effect of CO₂ emissions on tourism demand, while institutional quality was positively associated with tourism demand. Furthermore, the findings of the study also suggested long-run asymmetric relationship between oil prices, exchange rate, inflation, and tourism demand.     

旅游发展能否减小城乡收入差距？——来自中国的经验证据

已有的研究文献并没有系统说明旅游发展与城乡收入差距之间是否存在显著关系。文章利用中国1999—2008年分省动态面板数据的系统广义矩估计（SYS—GMM）方法对此进行了实证检验。实证结果显示，中国旅游发展能够显著减小城乡收入差距。旅游发展减小城乡收入差距的影响机制主要表现为旅游发展对农村人均实际收入具有显著正向关系，而与城镇人均实际收入之间关系则不显著，研究还发现，旅游发展对全国人均收入水平存在显著正向关系。除此之外，财政分权在旅游发展对城乡收入差距影响关系中起负调节作用；城市化在旅游发展对城乡收入差距影响关系中起正调节作用；人均收入水平在旅游发展对城乡收入差距影响关系中的负调节作用基本可以忽略。     

Immigration and international inbound tourism: Empirical evidence from Australia

Immigration can potentially influence tourism flows. However, in spite of the vast number of studies on tourism demand modelling, the immigration-tourism linkage has not received much attention in the empirical literature. This paper seeks to address this gap. A dynamic demand model is developed and estimated using data from 1980 to 2008 for the 15 main markets of Australia. The explanatory variables included are income, own price, price of a substitute destination, airfare and immigration. The estimation results empirically establish the connection between immigration and inbound tourism. The short run and long-run immigration elasticities generated are 0.028 and 0.09 respectively. Additionally this paper demonstrates that omission of prices of substitutes affects the value of the own price elasticity of demand. The results have implications for future research and for stakeholders who can improve the efficiency of their planning exercises by taking into account additional information on immigration trends.     

ASEAN’s intra-regional tourism demand to Thailand

This paper presents an overview of intra-regional tourism in ASEAN at the beginning of the challenging times that will come with the constitution of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). Thailand is chosen as the destination country and the other nine countries are selected as origin. After presenting ASEAN’s intra-regional tourism, the study develops a model of long-run demand. The coefficients are estimated by a time-varying parameters method considering the potential presence of structural breaks, and its implication. The results present and discuss the implications of income, own price, and cross price elasticities. As concluding recommendations, this study suggests that while the region should take advantage of the expansion of the Asian markets due to economic growth and liberalization of ASEAN since 2016, it should use different policies in each origin market.     

Tourism and economic development: The beach disease?

This paper analyses empirically the danger of a Dutch Disease Effect in tourism dependent countries in the long run. Data on 134 countries of the world over the period 1970–2007 is used. In a first step the long-run relationship between tourism and economic growth is analysed in a cross-country setting. The results are then checked in a panel data framework on GDP per capita levels that allows to control for reverse causality, non-linearity and interactive effects. It is found that there is no danger of a Beach Disease Effect. On the contrary, tourism dependent countries do not face real exchange rate distortion and deindustrialisation but higher than average economic growth rates. Investment in physical capital, such as for instance transport infrastructure, is complementary to investment in tourism.     

旅游发展会影响居民消费吗?——来自中国的经验证据

文章构建了两个衡量旅游发展的代理指标,运用动态面板数据系统广义矩估计方法对旅游发展、经济增长与居民消费之间的关系进行了实证研究.研究结果显示,在中国整体层面上,旅游发展对居民消费具有显著正向影响关系,然而这种正向关系的影响效应较小；旅游发展滞后项并不显著,意味着旅游发展对居民消费促进作用的动态持续效应并不明显,导致在一定时间段内旅游发展对居民消费呈倒U型的影响关系.在区域层面上,东部地区旅游发展对居民消费具有显著正向影响关系；中部地区同样存在上述正向影响关系,但估计结果显示这种关系并不十分稳健；西部地区旅游发展对居民消费影响关系则不显著.针对上述问题,最后提出了相应的政策建议.     

Productivity growth and income in the tourism sector: Role of tourism demand and human capital investment

This paper proposes a model for the demand for tourism in the context of a developing country. The parameters of the model are a tourist sector characterised by monopolistic competition, where human capital is the main factor of production and hotels have market power. Additionally land use is marked by demand from both agricultural and tourism sectors. From the household side, a simplified OLG approach is developed to consider consumption, human activity and the number of children. A dynamic framework is therefore identified to investigate the long-run consequences of increasing labor productivity and lowering the fertility rate. If the supply-side policy leads to economic growth, the tourism led growth hypothesis is theoretically confirmed. It is concluded that an increase in labor productivity generates positive growth effects only if the demand for tourism is elastic, otherwise negative results arise.