An econometric application of the theory of the farm-household

Employing a Cobb-Douglas specification for the production function and a modified linear expenditure system, the paper presents an econometric model of household production, consumption and labor supply behaviour for a semi-commercial farm with a competitive labor market. The model, estimated from primary, cross-sectional, Malaysian data, is used to analyse the impact of migration, output price intervention and technological change on the agricultural sector. In doing so, the wage-rate is treated as an endogenous variable to be determined by the interaction of aggregate labor demand and supply curves obtained from the estimated micro functions.     

Economic status of households and labour supply to market and non-market activities mdash; some results from a poor rural economy

Assuming a given underlying utility structure for all households, we have demonstrated that the differential labour supply behaviour among household categories results owing to the different sets of constraints they face depending on their economic status and asset ownership. Using the criteria implied by the theoretical model four household gorups are defined. The labour supply functions estimated for these four groups support the theoretical result of significantly different supply behaviour. The empirical exercise, as expected, indicates that the labour supply decision of the subsistence group is guided by their need to achieve the minimum level of consumption while the middle-income households, who do not have enough non-labour income to meet their minimum subsistence need, tend to work longer hours in market activities than the workers from high-income households. However, market labour supply by high-income households is found to be relatively more sensitive to changes in the wage rate. The behaviour of the household groups differ so significantly that if an aggregate model is estimated ignoring inter-household differences, the predicted hours will grossly over-estimate labour supply to market activities.     

住房保障与财富效应逆转——基于平滑转换回归方法的实证分析

本文采取非线性的平滑转换回归方法,对我国保障房供给影响财富效应的程度进行了研究,结果表明:保障房的供给会使得房地产价格的财富效应发生V型逆转,即当保障房供给处于低水平阶段时,房地产价格的财富效应为负向,房价上涨会抑制消费增加;当保障房供给处于高水平阶段时,房地产价格具有正向的财富效应,房价上涨促进消费增加。这说明存在一个保障房供给的最低门槛,只有跨越这个门槛,才能有利于发挥房地产价格的财富效应,进而促进消费。从对全国各省份的数据分析发现,西部地区的大部分省份已经跨越了保障房供给的最低门槛,而东部地区较多的省份,连续几年都低于这个门槛值。因此,应积极建立健全保障性安居工程的融资机制,合理协调好保障房与商品房用地之间的关系,进而促进消费。     

Household bargaining and the design of couples’ income taxation

This paper studies the design of couples’ income taxation when consumption and labor supply decisions within the couple are made by maximizing a weighted sum of the spouses’ utilities; bargaining weights are given but specific to each couple. Information structure and labor supply decisions follow the Mirrleesian tradition. However, while the household's total consumption is publicly observable, the consumption levels of the individual spouses are not observable. With a utilitarian social welfare function we show that the expression for a spouses’ marginal income tax rate includes a “Pigouvian” (paternalistic) and an incentive term. The Pigouvian term favors a marginal subsidy (tax) for the high-weight (low-weight) spouse, whose labor supply otherwise tends to be too low (high). The sign and the magnitude of the incentive term depends on the weight structure across couples. In some cases both terms have the same sign and imply a positive marginal tax for the low-weight spouse (who may be female) and a negative one for the high-weight spouse (possibly the male). This is at odds with the traditional Boskin and Sheshinski results. Our conclusions can easily be generalized to more egalitarian welfare functions. Finally, we present numerical simulations based on a calibrated specification of our model. The calculations confirm that the male spouse may well have the lower (and possibly even negative) marginal tax rate.     

能源供给、能源消费与经济增长的关系——基于1978—2008年山西省数据的实证分析

本文利用1978—2008年山西省的GDP、能源供给、能源消费的数据,对山西省经济增长和能源供求之间的关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:山西省能源消费总量、能源供给总量均对GDP具有显著的单向Granger因果关系,山西省能源消费和能源供给一起构成了山西省经济增长的单向推动引擎;能源消费总量、能源生产总量与GDP之间存在长期协整关系。最后,提出了发展山西省能源经济及探索循环经济模式的政策建议。     

The role of labour demand elasticities in tax incidence analysis with heterogeneous labour

Whether labour bears full burden of household level income and consumption taxes ultimately depends on the degree of substitutability among different types of labour in production. We find more variation in incidence patterns across households with less than perfectly substitutable heterogeneous labour than with perfectly substitutable homogeneous labour in production. This finding is based on results obtained from homogeneous and heterogeneous labour general equilibrium tax models calibrated to decile level income and consumption distribution data of UK households for the year 1994. We use labour supply elasticities implied by the substitution elasticity in households' utility functions and derive labour demand elasticities from the substitution elasticity in the production function. First version received: March 1998/Final version received: April 1999     

An estimation of import demand,export supply and technical change for Korea

This paper estimates import demand and export supply functions for Korea based on the translog restricted profit (or GNP) function. It also estimates biases of technological change and applies decomposition analysis to examine the effects of technical change on input demand within the profit function framework. Our findings show that (a) factor inputs, as well as outputs, are, in general, moderately price-elastic and substitutable among each other. (b) the production of investment goods, as well as export goods, is capital-intensive while the production of consumption goods is labout-intensive, (c) technical change is labour-saving and is biased against imports, and (d) there has been a rapid decline of export supply price-elasticity which may be attributable to the rapid growth of export share of GDP (from 4% in 1964 to 38% in 1983). The larger the relative size of export sector and the faster the rate of its growth, the harder will it be to expand export production by drawing own resources from the domestic sector.     

Indeterminacy and multiple steady states with sector-specific externalities

This paper studies a two-sector model with aggregate and sector-specific external effects in production and inelastic labor supply. We first characterize the existence, uniqueness and multiplicity of the steady states as well as their welfare properties. We particularly focus on the CES production functions and show that the steady state is generically either unique or there are exactly two. A simple geometrical methodology enables us to characterize the local dynamics of the steady state. We show that in order to get indeterminacy, the presence of both aggregate and sector-specific external effects is needed, along with low capital–labor elasticities of substitution and high, but bounded from above, elasticities in intertemporal consumption. We perform a sensitivity analysis and show that indeterminacy emerges for parameter values in line with those used in calibrations of standard RBC models, that is for unitary elasticities of input substitution and of intertemporal substitution in consumption.     

Inequality and the business cycle: evidence from U.S. survey data

ABSTRACT

We study the effects of macroeconomic shocks on measures of economic inequality obtained from U.S. survey data. To identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and monetary policy shocks, we estimate vector autoregressions and impose sign and zero restrictions on impulse response functions. We find that the effects of the macroeconomic shocks on inequality depend on the type of shock as well as on the measure of inequality considered. Contractionary monetary policy shocks increase expenditure and consumption inequality, whereas income and earnings inequality are less affected. Adverse aggregate supply and demand shocks increase income and earnings inequality, but reduce expenditure and consumption inequality. Our results suggest that different channels dominate in the transmission of the shocks. The earnings heterogeneity channel is consistent with the inequality dynamics after monetary policy shocks, but it appears to be less crucial when the economy is hit by either aggregate supply or aggregate demand shocks. Using variance decompositions, we find that although the macroeconomic shocks account for large shares of the variation in the macroeconomic variables, their contributions to the dynamics of the inequality measures are limited.     

Consumption externalities,production externalities,and long-run macroeconomic efficiency

We analyze the effects of consumption and production externalities on capital accumulation. We show that the importance of consumption externalities depends upon the elasticity of labor supply. If the labor supply is inelastic, consumption externalities cause no long-run distortions. Whether there are distortions along the transitional path depends upon consumer preferences. The effects of production externalities are more pervasive; they exert long-run distortionary effects irrespective of labor supply. The optimal taxation to correct for the distortions created by the externalities is characterized. We analyze both stationary and endogenously growing economies, and while there are many parallels in how externalities impact, there are also important differences.     

新发展格局构建下的高质量发展：社会再生产视角*

高质量发展是以满足人民美好生活需要为最终目的。当前，我国高质量发展进入了以国内大循环为主体，国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。需要是与满足需要的手段一同发展的，为此本文结合马克思需要理论与社会再生产理论，提出社会需要与满足社会需要的生产、分配、交换、消费四个环节协同发展是我国高质量发展的应有之义。同时，在厘清生产、分配、交换、消费的本质关系基础上，从社会再生产的四个环节提出实践路径。具体而言：应提高供给质量，增强供给效率，形成供给新动力；构筑合理的初次分配、公平的再分配，规范分配秩序；畅通供需匹配渠道，提升商业服务质量，推进贸易强国建设；树立理性消费观念，推动消费结构升级，营造良好消费环境；促进国内市场国际化、国内市场与国际市场高度融合,形成国际竞争新优势。     

Aggregation and the analysis of markets

The case for aggregating relations in Economics is often tenuous. This paper shows that under conditions of genuine ignorance and real historical time, it is not possible to aggregate from individual demand and supply functions to market-level demand and supply functions. Hence the traditional analysis of markets based on market demand and market supply is called into question. Two proposals for replacing the traditional market analysis are suggested that do not rely on aggregation within markets.     

有效供给不足抑制中国消费需求——从长短期消费函数看消费不足的问题

2005年是中国经济改革的关键一年,但目前宏观经济中出现了GDP增速减缓和消费需求疲软的突出矛盾。如何解决这一矛盾?相关文献通常在凯恩斯短期消费函数的基础上,认为消费拖累了GDP增长,并建议实施提高消费倾向、刺激消费需求的宏观消费管理政策。文章通过长期消费函数分析后发现是有效供给不足压抑了消费。因此,文章建议从加强供给管理入手,为社会提供更多的有效供给才是化解宏观经济矛盾的战略选择。     

湖南省农村公共物品供给状况的实证分析

从农民生活所需的公共物品角度,以农民的需求为出发点,根据凯恩斯的绝对收入假说消费函数模型以及农村公共物品供需平衡理论的线性回归模型,对湖南省农民的需求偏好和农村主要公共物品的供给状况进行回归分析。认为应该进一步强化公共财政的职能,优化投资结构,创新投融资体制,提高湖南省农村公共物品的供给数量和质量。     

MACROECONOMIC AND REDISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS OF CONSUMPTION TAXES IN THE USA*

This paper studies the effect of an increase in consumption taxes using a dynamic general equilibrium model of overlapping generations calibrated to the US economy. When the proceeds are used to reduce income taxes, the reform raises the aggregate capital and labour supply in the long run. Workers increase labour supply immediately in response to the reform, while consumption rises only gradually. The tax reform also transfers wealth from old consumers to young consumers. As a result, while future generations experience significant welfare gains, current generations, particularly old consumers, tend to experience sizable welfare losses. When the proceeds are used for a lump‐sum transfer, the aggregate capital and labour both decrease in the long run. This reform is welfare‐improving for the current low‐income households.     

Consumption externalities, production externalities, and efficient capital accumulation under time non-separable preferences

The effects of consumption and production externalities on economic performance under time non-separable preferences are examined both theoretically and numerically. We show that a consumption externality alone has long-run distortionary effects if and only if labor is supplied elastically. With fixed labor supply, it has only transitional distortionary effects. Production externalities always generate long-run distortions, irrespective of labor supply. The optimal tax structure to correct for the distortions is characterized. We compare the implications of this model with those obtained when the consumption externality is contemporaneous. While some of the long-run effects are robust, there are also important qualitative and quantitative differences, particularly along transitional paths.     

乳品消费市场供求关系预测研究

系统地分析了影响我国乳品消费的各个因素，找出了乳品消费量低的症结。又采用双对数模型和面板估计的方法对奶类供求现状进行预测和分析，结果表明我国奶类未来产消平衡将出现较大的缺口，应该形成合理的畜产品供给结构，有效地刺激我国居民消费乳品。     

汽车消费税的消费效应研究——基于月度宏观数据的分析

随着国民经济的快速发展和人们生活水平的不断提高,人们对汽车这一既具有生产资料属性又具有耐用消费品属性的商品的需求也在不断增加。汽车的消费既提高了普通百姓的生活质量,同时也消耗了大量的自然资源,污染了空气,给能源供给、环境质量等带来极大的压力。文章从我国两次调整消费税税率的角度出发,运用月度数据实证分析国家的消费税政策的变动对汽车消费量的影响,得出两次消费税税率的调整在一定程度上鼓励了小排量车消费,抑制大排量车消费的结论。     

改革开放以来中国能源供需格局演变

由于存在着资源及其开发利用的明显局限性,能源供应范围的不断扩张成为国家和地区现代化进程的一种必然趋势.文章通过中国能源生产、消费和平均运距刻画了改革开放以来中国能源供需格局的演变过程.结果表明:第一,改革开放以来,中国能源的生产、消费量和供应空间都随着社会、经济的发展而有了巨大的增长和扩展;第二,能源供应空间的扩展过程不仅是能源消费总量增长的结果,更是消费结构升级的产物,其中煤炭绝对主导地位的下降和石油及天然气作用的提升在全国和区域均得到很好的印证;第三,在资源泉赋和经济发展二者共同作用下,国家能源供需格局变得更加清晰.为了满足东部地区能源输人需求的持续增长,中西部地区的能源输出能力得到了明显加强,尤以西部地区能源输出地位的提高至关重要.     

The Role of Economics: Creating the Sustainable Rational Agent

How are consumption decisions made? Does demand drive supply, does supply drive demand, or is it a mixture of both? Do consumption decisions implicitly include our values or are our decisions made with an assumption that what we are consuming has already factored in the long-term best interests of human health and environmental well-being? These basic questions are often unaddressed in the introductory study of economics. Instead, assumptions related to consumption and production behavior, demand, and supply are embedded as representative of consumer and producer behavioral norms, typically with minimal discussion. Could implicit assumptions promote observable behavior rather than be indicative of it? If so, could increasing awareness of the role of embedded values in demand and supply influence behaviors of consumers and producers and thereby alter economic outcomes? These questions were addressed as part of an introductory economics course case study. The purpose of the study was to raise awareness of the implications of individual purchasing decisions and to specifically initiate students in self-evaluation of their individual values and the values embedded in their individual consumption behavior. The results of the study promote the view that increasing awareness of the holistic impact of consumption behavior may be a significant catalyst to promoting sustainability.