“世界主要货币的国际化历程及其启示”文献综述

本文详细梳理了关于世界主要货币国际化进程的和人民币国际化问题的大量国内外文献。从以往的文献来看,有关世界主要货币国际化经验借鉴的论文,焦点大多放在美元、德国马克、日元、欧元四种货币上;而有关人民币国际化问题的讨论主要集中于人民币国际化时机是否成熟、目前尚存的制约因素有哪些以及人民币国际化路径应当如何选择等几个问题上。本文以这些焦点问题为线索,尽可能全面的整理了相关文献。     

汲取“日元国际化”经验教训 稳步推进人民币国际化

人民币国际化问题日益引起人们的关注，经济大国本币的国际化进程，可作为中国人民币国际化路径选择的重要参照。回顾日本推进日元国际化的进程，许多经验教训值得中国吸取。对日元国际化的经验教训进行分析总结，一方面有助于我们了解日元国际化进程中所出现的问题．另一方面对推动我国人民币国际化也具有重要借鉴意义。     

货币国际化进程规律的分析──对人民币国际化进程的启示

尽管人民币的国际化进程刚刚起步 ,但人民币已被专家看好有望成为全球第四大货币。为了对人民币的国际化进程提供借鉴和启示 ,本文阐述了货币国际化进程所遵循的一般规律 ,并通过英镑、美元、日元等货币的国际化历程加以印证 ,进而对人民币的国际化进程提出一些思考。     

货币国际化的历史经验及启示

对于我国来说,人民币国际化将是一个长期渐进的过程。因此,我们需要借鉴国际上已实施货币国际化国家的先进经验,以探索我国人民币国际化的最优路径与模式选择。本文通过对美元、日元、欧元等货币国际化实践的介绍与分析评价,得出对我国人民币国际化的几点启示,并总结出目前人民币国际化存在的问题,最后提出了从保持我国经济持续增长、完善国内金融体系等四个方面来逐步实现人民币国际化的对策建议。     

日元国际化教训对我国推行人民币国际化的启示

<正>人民币国际化问题日益引起关注。当前我国正在推进跨境人民币结算工作,中国经济发展和日本发展道路较为相似,总结日元国际化的失败教训,避免人民币国际化重蹈日元旧辙,对推动我国人民币国际化具有重要的借鉴意义。一、日元国际化的推进历程二战后日本经济迅速恢复,1955年至1973年日本经济年均增     

日元国际化程度影响因素及对人民币国际化的启示

随着中国经济的快速发展和对外开放程度的提高,人民币逐渐走出国门,被其他国家所接受。人民币国际化进程不断加快,人民币在国际货币体系中将发挥更为重要的作用。本文综合各种因素选取在货币国际化进程中与中国各方面条件相似的日本为研究主体,运用实证分析的方法从基本经济情况、金融市场发展、币值稳定以及网络外部性四大方面来看日元国际化程度的影响因素,进而根据结论就人民币国际化提出相关建议。     

日元国际化进程中的日本银行业发展及启示

从世界上其他国家的货币国际化历史来看,货币国际化有三种模式：美元模式、欧元模式和曰元模式,其中美元是通过特殊历史时期的全球汇率制度安排得以确定;欧元是通过区域经济一体化和让渡货币主权得以实现;日元是通过汇率自由化,贸易自由化,资本流动自由化,利率和金融市场自由化,使其成为国际经济活动中比较普遍使用的货币。从货币国际化的历史、地理条件和经济背景来看,人民币国际化选择日元模式可能性很大。众所周知,日元国际化政策对日本经济产生极大的影响,并危及到日本银行业。人民币国际化走日元模式,意味着人民币国际化政策与日元国际化政策必然存在相同之处,且中国银行业面对人民币国际化时所处的经济环境与当年日本银行业非常类似,包括：资本项目管制程度较高;经常项目大额顺差;国内储蓄率高;利率管制;企业绝大部分融资通过银行体系实现;银行信贷接受中央银行的窗口指导。日元国际化进程中,日本银行业是如何发展和变化的？对中国商业银行有怎样启示？这些课题的研究对中国商业银行应对人民币国际化具有重要意义。     

货币职能视角下的人民币国际地位评估

人民币国际化问题,一直是社会各方关注和讨论的热点、焦点。本文从货币职能的角度对人民币国际化现状进行了梳理及评估。基本结论是:人民币的国际化程度在交易媒介、计价标准及价值储藏职能上均有明显提升;但相对人民币在跨境结算领域的快速增长,由于交易结构问题导致人民币在外汇交易市场占有率有限,人民币计价标准职能发展滞后于结算业务的发展;金融危机后,国际投资者分散风险的需求为人民币提升价值储藏职能以及在"货币金字塔"结构中的地位创造了有利条件。     

货币国际化的国际经验:比较与借鉴

本文拟通过影响货币国际化因素的分析,从中总结英镑、美元、日元和欧元国际化成功和失败的经验教训及启示,研究思考推进人民币国际化的思路。     

德国马克和日元的国际化经验及对中国的启示

1973年布雷顿森林体系解体后,德国马克和日元迅速崛起,成为国际货币体系的重要组成部分。德国马克和日元的国际化经验对人民币国际化具有重要的启示作用:一方面我国经济总量和贸易总量已经位居世界前列,另一方面我国还需要从汇率制度、金融市场、贸易结构、管理通货膨胀等多方面进行改革,保证人民币国际化稳步推进。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…