Integrating climate change,food prices and population health

The inter-related nature of food, health and climate change requires a better understanding of the linkages and a greater alignment of policy across these issues to be able to adequately meet the pressing social and health challenges arising from climate change. Food price is one way through which climate change may affect health. The aim of this study of the global and Australian food systems is to provide a whole-of-system analysis of food price vulnerabilities, highlighting the key pressure points across the food system through which climate change could potentially have the greatest impact on consumer food prices and the implications for population health. We outline areas where there are particular vulnerabilities for food systems and food prices arising from climate change, particularly global commodity prices; agricultural productivity; short term supply shocks; and less direct factors such as input costs and government policies. We use Australia as a high-income country case study to consider these issues in more detail. The complex and dynamic nature of pricing mechanisms makes it difficult to predict precisely how prices will be impacted. Should prices rise disproportionately among healthy foodstuffs compared to less healthy foods there may be adverse health outcomes if less expensive and less healthy foods are substituted. Higher prices will also have equity implications with lower socio-economic groups most impacted given these households currently spend proportionately more of their weekly income on food. The ultimate objective of this research is to identify the pathways through the food system via which climate change may affect food prices and ultimately population health, thereby providing evidence for food policy which takes into account environmental and health considerations.     

REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security

Recent research shows that the combined contributions of deforestation, forest degradation and peat land emissions account for about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. The REDD policy which preserves forests and values standing forests, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness of the agricultural sector, agricultural prices, trade patterns, agricultural production and therefore food security in the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET using a scenario approach. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 7.6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.7%. Regional differences are large, with real agricultural price changes ranging from 4% in North America to about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Food access rapidly deteriorates for low-income population in these regions in the case of high forest protection levels. Compensatory payments are necessary from a food security point of view if the level of forest protection increases. Our results indicate that from a food security perspective REDD policy should stop short of trying to protect more than 40% of global carbon if the compensation mechanism is not effectively implemented within REDD.     

Examining the link between food prices and food insecurity: A multi-level analysis of maize price and birthweight in Kenya

In developing countries where many poor people rely on rainfed, locally produced food for the majority of their caloric intake, shifts in climate and weather patterns can dramatically reduce agricultural productivity. The reduction in agricultural productivity reduces overall food availability and ultimately impacts food accessibility, putting millions of people at risk for malnutrition. In this project we focus on Kenya where roughly a third of households are food insecure. We examine the relationship of the price of maize and low birth weight to help quantify the impact of local food prices on one outcome of household food insecurity. Using spatially referenced data from recent Kenyan Demographic and Health Survey datasets, price data, livelihood information, and a remotely sensed-based measure of local growing season productivity, we develop a dataset linking pregnancies occurring from 2001 to 2008 to the spatially and temporally relevant maize price data. We construct several regression models to examine the impact of local maize prices and remotely sensed based estimates of crop production on infant birth weight – specifically low birth weight. The results of the models highlight the importance of including community crop production to evaluate maize price impacts on low birth weight outcomes. Also, because of the positive correlation between pre-pregnancy maize prices and birth weight, the results suggest that some households may benefit from high prices or that high prices may impact the number of conceptions. More generally, our work demonstrates that multilevel models that account for community-level variation are important for disentangling these complex relationships and can contribute to the discussion of how to design more effective food policies.     

Stabilizing food markets in eastern and southern Africa

A major challenge for agricultural policy in Africa is how to address the market instability-related causes of low farm productivity and food insecurity. This paper highlights structural changes affecting the behavior of food markets in eastern and southern Africa and discusses their implications for the design of strategies to stabilize food prices. These changes include (1) an increasing trend in maize prices toward import parity levels, reflecting an emerging structural maize deficit in much of the region; (2) increasingly diversified food consumption patterns in both rural and urban areas; (3) highly concentrated marketed maize surplus, which have largely unrecognized implications for the magnitude of price risk faced by most farm households; and (4) the strategic interactions between private and public marketing actors leading in some cases to heightened market instability and food crises. In the prevailing dual market environment now characterizing most of the region, greater coordination, transparency, and consultation between private and public market actors is needed to achieve reasonable levels of food price stability and predictability.     

Policy coherence and food security: The effects of OECD countries’ agricultural policies

There have been important changes to agricultural policies in many OECD countries over the past decade and the international spill-over effects of support and protection have diminished. Now would be a good time to eliminate remaining distortions and put in place more efficient alternatives, including social safety nets and tools to help farmers manage risk. This would lock in the benefits of reform and simultaneously address charges of policy incoherence. In the context of high food prices, new issues have emerged with potential implications for food security. They include export restrictions, the use of biofuel mandates, and the opportunities and threats presented by increased foreign investment in agriculture. On these issues, as well as in terms of conventional support mechanisms, policies in emerging economies (in particular the BRIICS) are increasingly important. A pro-active agenda for policy coherence would involve not just eliminating policies that distort trade, but also enacting positive measures to increase food availability, for example by raising agricultural productivity, using resources sustainably, and eliminating waste and over-consumption. Across countries, there are important gains to be realised from knowledge sharing, and from multilateral action to provide global public goods – not least smoother functioning of the multilateral trading system.     

Farm subsidies and obesity in the United States: National evidence and international comparisons

Many commentators have claimed that farm subsidies have contributed significantly to the “obesity epidemic” by making fattening foods relatively cheap and abundant. But U.S. farm policies have generally small and mixed effects on farm commodity prices, which in turn have even smaller and still mixed effects on the relative prices of more- and less-fattening foods. Other factors have had much more influence on reducing the farm prices of food commodities and the consumer prices of food such that any effects of U.S. farm policies on U.S. obesity patterns must have been negligible. Moreover, while many arguments can be made for changing U.S. farm subsidies, even entirely eliminating the current programs could not be expected to have a significant influence on obesity rates. International evidence reinforces this finding. The countries that support their farmers most strongly tend to have relatively low obesity rates. In these countries the main support for farmers comes through trade barriers and higher consumer prices, which—like U.S. policies for sugar, dairy, orange juice, and beef—discourage consumption and reduce obesity. In contrast with agricultural subsidies, agricultural R&D has had a significant effect in the past on the relative price of food commodities and food, and has the potential to influence obesity patterns in the future, but R&D policy is a very blunt instrument for pursuing public health policy objectives.     

Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change

This paper provides a model-based assessment of local and global climate change impacts for the case of Yemen, focusing on agricultural production, household incomes and food security. Global climate change is mainly transmitted through rising world food prices. Our simulation results suggest that climate change induced price increases for food will raise agricultural GDP while decreasing real household incomes and food security. Rural non-farm households are hit hardest as they tend to be net food consumers with high food budget shares, but farm households also experience real income losses given that many of them are net buyers of food. The impacts of local climate change are less clear given the ambiguous predictions of global climate models (GCMs) with respect to future rainfall patterns in Yemen. Local climate change impacts manifest itself in long term yield changes, which differ between two alternative climate scenarios considered. Under the MIR scenario, agricultural GDP is somewhat higher than with perfect mitigation and rural incomes rise due to higher yields and lower prices for sorghum and millet. Under the CSI scenario, positive and negative yield changes cancel each other out. As a result, agricultural GDP and household incomes hardly change compared to perfect mitigation.     

Reflections on food crises past

World food crises are relatively rare events, occurring roughly three times a century. But they also tend to be regular events, every three decades or so, suggesting there is an underlying cyclical cause. If so, far-sighted donor and government investments in raising agricultural productivity, and policies on behalf of stable food production and prices, might go a long way to preventing food crises in the future. Preventing food crises rather than trying to cope after the fact with their impact on the poor is the only way to avoid substantial, perhaps permanent, damage to the welfare of poor households. Lessons from the world food crises in 1972/73 and in 2007/08, especially lessons from how the world rice market functioned, point the way toward improved food policy management at national and international levels in the future.     

Public health and agricultural practice

Health, ecological and social aspects of agricultural policy are beginning to supplement traditional concerns of productivity and profitability, and underline the interdependence of agricultural and other areas of social and economic policy. This article reviews public health problems arising out of agricultural practices, and discusses some ecologically inspired initiatives which suggest a growing dissatisfaction with current trends.     

Land rights,gender equality and household food security: Exploring the conceptual links in the case of India

This paper seeks to critically examine the conceptual linkages between the issue of land rights for women, with household food security on the one hand and gender equality on the other. After a brief analysis of shifts in both international and national policy discourse and practice in terms of control over land as vital for food security, it seeks to analyse the implications of this for gender relations. The paper argues that in a context of diversified rural livelihoods, the contribution of agricultural production to household subsistence has been declining. This trend has been reinforced by a decline in public investment, stagnant growth and fluctuating prices for agricultural products. Men have been able to access the better paid, non-farm jobs, while leaving women behind to manage agricultural production. The renewed link between production and food security in agricultural policy has however meant allowing men not to have responsibility for household food security. While a right to land for women is a positive development, it appears also to be leading to an enhancement of work burdens, without much change in terms of status or decision-making authority.     

Sustaining healthy diets: The role of capture fisheries and aquaculture for improving nutrition in the post-2015 era

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda makes achieving food security and ending malnutrition a global priority. Within this framework, the importance of fisheries in local and global food systems and its contribution to nutrition and health, particularly for the poor are overlooked and undervalued. This paper reviews current fish production and consumption from capture fisheries and aquaculture, highlights opportunities for enhancing healthy diets and outlines key multi-sectoral policy solutions. Mirroring the call for a diversification of agricultural research and investment beyond a few staple grains, it is anticipated that productivity gains for a few farmed aquatic species will not suffice. Capture fisheries and aquaculture have a complementary role to play in increasing fish availability and access, and must be promoted in ways that support measurable nutrition and health gains. This paper argues that the lack of a nutrition-sensitive policy focus on capture fisheries and aquaculture represents an untapped opportunity that must be realised for ensuring sustainable healthy diets for all.     

New agricultural technology and smallfarmers in Latin America

Biased income distribution in agriculture as a result of the green revolution towards better agricultural regions and larger farmers has been justified by declining prices for rice and wheat making consumers the main beneficiaries of this new technology. But, there are two arguments for focusing future agricultural technology towards small farmers and poorer resource regions. First, evidence suggests that there is little productivity or nutritional improvement from migration. Second, unless the supply of prime areas can be made more elastic, most of the small farmer food crops, even with new technology, will not be sufficiently profitable to displace the high value activities currently found in these areas in Latin America.     

Sources of food price volatility and child malnutrition in Niger and Malawi

In recent times, considerable attention has been paid to the nutritional impact of the sharp hikes in the international food prices which took place in 2007–8 and 2010–11. While understandable, this growing focus has perhaps obscured the impact of other variables affecting malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa, i.e. the long-term impact of agricultural policies on food supply and prices, large and persistent seasonal variations in food prices, and the impact of famines which still affect parts of the continent. This paper focuses on the relative impact of these factors on child malnutrition (measured by the number of child admissions to feeding centres) in Malawi and Niger, two countries which closely represent the situation of other small, landlocked, subsistence agricultural economies facing severe food security problems. Our analysis shows that in these countries the drivers of changes in domestic staple prices and child malnutrition are related not only – or not primarily – to variations of international food prices but also to the impact of agricultural policies on food production and prices, in a persistent food price seasonality, and in recurrent and poorly managed famines. These factors can exert a strong upward pressure on food prices and child malnutrition even during years of falling international prices.     

Fertiliser and food policy in LDCs

At a time of fertiliser scarcity and high prices it is important to know more about the poorly understood relationships between fertiliser and food production. Fertiliser price increases are reflected in increased prices for food which poses a dilemma for governments attempting to increase food production and minimise rising prices. Through the use of a simple macro-model these relationships are discussed and the policy insights they offer. Impact of price receives special attention because of its frequent use as a policy instrument.     

A quantitative analysis of trade policy responses to higher world agricultural commodity prices

The worldwide spike in prices of agricultural commodities in 2007–2008 elevated food security and social stability issues to the forefront, especially in many food-deficit countries. In order to mitigate the global food commodity price pressure on domestic markets, several major exporting and importing countries, mostly developing economies, adopted trade policy changes such as export bans (or raising export restrictions) or reducing import tariffs during the same period. This paper estimates the potential impacts of these policies on the world prices and trade of major agricultural commodities using a set of multi-country, multi-commodity, and partial-equilibrium models. Our findings suggest that over all, the trade policy responses in various countries increased the prices of all agricultural commodities, although the impact on the total net trade varies by commodity. The simulation results show that the overall impact of trade policy distortions on the world rice price is most significant at 24%, followed by wheat (14%) and barley (9%). In general, the poorer food-deficit countries/regions, which have limited power to manipulate their trade policies, experienced higher price increases compared to those major trading countries that adopted policy interventions. Also, the developing countries that are net importers which did not implement trade policy interventions experienced significant welfare losses resulting from interventions implemented by other major trading countries.     

Agricultural policy reforms and food security in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

This paper provides an overview of agricultural policy reforms and their impact on food security in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Owing to increasing hostility in regional trade among the countries of Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, like their neighbors, have chosen to follow a path of food self-sufficiency, which has biased their agricultural systems towards grain production. The paper finds that the land reforms in these two countries, which have dismantled the state farms, have resulted in reduced productivity of crops and declining food availability at the household level. It argues that reversing this trend will require increased investment in rural infrastructure and agricultural research to improve crop yields, and in the short-term, food security interventions to protect the poor and vulnerable.     

Long-term crop productivity response and its interaction with cereal markets and energy prices

Crop yields are endogenous as long as economic agents adjust to permanent changes in expected prices. The literature, however, does not offer a definitive value of how much yield would change in response to sustained price changes. To fill the gap, we use available scientific findings and data to estimate yield elasticities that enable agricultural commodity and food policy analysis. Using a world market model with short- to long-run yield response, we show the impacts of sustained energy price shocks on global cereal supply and demand. The results highlight substantial differences in quantity and price effects depending on the yield elasticities. These results demonstrate the need to recognize yield response when assessing impacts of energy prices or biofuel production on food uses or, more generally, on food security in the face of income and population growth, evolving dietary patterns, climate change implications, or other long-run pressures.     

Food prices and food policy analysis in LDCs

Opinions have been polarized on the role of food prices in economic development. Structuralist analysis argues that food prices are irrelevant to long-term development, but neoclassical theorists believe that food prices may be a critical factor. This article attempts to reconcile these views, reports on the differential impacts of food prices in Indonesia and discusses the role of food prices in the policy process.     

Conceptualizing sustainable diets in Vietnam: Minimum metrics and potential leverage points

A major barrier to achieving sustainable diets is the lack of clearly defined and agreed upon intervention points that will positively influence multiple sectors of the food system. There is an urgent need to understand what policy approaches and interventions will most effectively enhance the sustainability of diets in rapidly urbanizing low- and middle-income countries. To address this need, this work combines the input of diverse stakeholders and analysis of existing datasets to develop a conceptual framework for sustainable diets that is locally relevant to Vietnam using a process that is generalizable to other developing countries. The resulting framework includes 235 unique, measurable indicators within eight domains: (1) food production, (2) food processing and distribution, (3) food loss and waste, (4) food access and consumption, (5) food and water safety, (6) nutrition, (7) sociopolitical context, and (8) environmental impact. This conceptual framework was employed in a participatory workshop that brought together 50 Vietnamese stakeholders from diverse areas of expertise to identify and prioritize specific metrics for measuring sustainable diets. Based on the results of the stakeholder workshop, expert interviews, and characterized datasets, a comprehensive set of minimum metrics for each domain was produced and key leverage points that are likely to have an impact across multiple sectors were identified. These leverage points include food quality and safety, agricultural chemical usage, food waste, and water management. The analysis is expected to contribute to evidence-based policymaking in Vietnam to cultivate more sustainable diets.     

Urban food subsidies in the context of adjustment: The case of Zambia

One of the most complex policy issues facing many developing-country governments over the next decade, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, concerns the problem of providing the impoverished sections of urban populations with adequate food at prices they can afford, while both meeting the fiscal requirements of adjustment programmes and promoting domestic agricultural production. The pressure to reduce urban food subsidies is in many cases already immense, and the implications for urban household food security are considerable. This article looks at recent Zambian experience, and suggests that new and more efficient ways of targeting subsidies may be required if levels of food consumption are not to deteriorate still further.