Post-green revolution food systems and the triple burden of malnutrition

Developing country food systems have changed dramatically since the Green Revolution period. At the same time, malnutrition still represents a challenge and is now understood to encompass the three simultaneous dimensions of undernourishment, micronutrient deficiencies, and over-nutrition manifest in overweight and obesity. These changes in food systems and in the understanding of the global malnutrition challenge necessitate fresh thinking about food systems-based strategies to reduce malnutrition. This paper introduces a special section that offers such new perspectives. We discuss trends with respect to indicators of the triple burden of malnutrition to understand the extent of global malnutrition challenges and then relate those to food systems transformation in developing countries.     

Food value chain transformations in developing countries: Selected hypotheses on nutritional implications

We examine how the transformation of food value chains (FVCs) influence the triple malnutrition burden (undernourishment, micronutrient deficiencies and over-nutrition) in developing countries. We propose a FVC typology (modern, traditional, modern-to-traditional, and traditional-to-modern) that takes into account the participants, the target market, and the products offered. Next, we propose selected hypotheses on the relationship between each FVC category and elements of the triple malnutrition burden. The primary finding is that the transformation of FVCs creates challenges and opportunities for nutrition in developing countries. For example, Modern FVCs may increase over-nutrition problems and alleviate micronutrient deficiencies for urban people with relatively high incomes. However, they have little nutritional impacts among rural residents and urban poor people, who primarily depend on traditional FVCs to access adequate quantities of calories and micronutrients. In addition, modern food manufacturers are leveraging traditional distribution networks (modern-to-traditional FVCs), substantially increasing access to low-priced processed/packaged foods in rural areas and low-income urban neighbors with mixed impacts on the triple burden of malnutrition. Further research should focus on the influence of FVC transformation on reduction of micronutrient deficiencies, on modeling demand substitution effects across food categories and the attendant policy implications for malnutrition.     

Faltering fisheries and ascendant aquaculture: Implications for food and nutrition security in Bangladesh

Bangladesh has made considerable progress against human development indicators in recent years, but malnutrition resulting from poor dietary diversity and low micronutrient intakes remains entrenched. Fish is central to the Bangladeshi diet and small fish species are an important micronutrient source. Although fish consumption per capita has increased in recent years as a result of rapid expansion of aquaculture, it is likely that consumption of fish from capture fisheries (including small indigenous species particularly rich in micronutrients), has declined. This paper evaluates data on fish consumption collected in Bangladesh by the International Food Policy Research Institute in 1996/7 and 2006/7 to assess changing patterns of fish consumption and their implications for food and nutrition security. This analysis indicates that growth of aquaculture has been positive, mitigating a sharp reduction in the quantity of fish consumed from capture fisheries and smoothing out seasonal variability in consumption. However, increased availability of fish from aquaculture may not have fully compensated for the loss of fish from capture fisheries in terms of dietary diversity, micronutrient intakes and food and nutrition security, particularly for the poorest consumers. A range of approaches are recommended to sustain and enhance the contributions capture fisheries and aquaculture make to food and nutrition security in Bangladesh     

Integrating fisheries,food and nutrition – Insights from people and policies in Timor-Leste

The important role of fish in food and nutrition security is becoming more widely acknowledged by the fishery sector and within food policy. Integration of fish and food policy, at national, regional or global levels, is required to ensure the contribution of fisheries and aquaculture to human health is supported through governance arrangements. We explore this aspect of food policy integration in Timor-Leste, where malnutrition is a critical health problem. Consumption of fish is low by international standards and only a small proportion of the population engages in fishing. We used a mixed method approach involving desktop policy analysis, interviews and social network analysis to explore interactions among sectoral instruments and organisations. Our results show generally good integration of food security into fisheries policies, but a lack of integration of fish into food policies. Policy network analysis revealed evidence of collaboration and cooperation between sectors, however, consideration of fish and food concerns was not well embedded across all organisations. We discuss challenges and options for future integration of fisheries into sustainable food systems in Timor-Leste and more broadly, including the need for greater political will and resources, combined with clearer targets and actions within instruments.     

Sources of food price volatility and child malnutrition in Niger and Malawi

In recent times, considerable attention has been paid to the nutritional impact of the sharp hikes in the international food prices which took place in 2007–8 and 2010–11. While understandable, this growing focus has perhaps obscured the impact of other variables affecting malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa, i.e. the long-term impact of agricultural policies on food supply and prices, large and persistent seasonal variations in food prices, and the impact of famines which still affect parts of the continent. This paper focuses on the relative impact of these factors on child malnutrition (measured by the number of child admissions to feeding centres) in Malawi and Niger, two countries which closely represent the situation of other small, landlocked, subsistence agricultural economies facing severe food security problems. Our analysis shows that in these countries the drivers of changes in domestic staple prices and child malnutrition are related not only – or not primarily – to variations of international food prices but also to the impact of agricultural policies on food production and prices, in a persistent food price seasonality, and in recurrent and poorly managed famines. These factors can exert a strong upward pressure on food prices and child malnutrition even during years of falling international prices.     

Impact of off-farm income on food security and nutrition in Nigeria

While the poverty implications of off-farm income have been analyzed in different developing countries, much less is known about the impact of off-farm income on household food security and nutrition. Here, this research gap is addressed by using farm survey data from Nigeria. Econometric analyses are employed to examine the mechanisms through which off-farm income affects household calorie and micronutrient supply, dietary quality, and child anthropometry. We find that off-farm income has a positive net effect on food security and nutrition. The prevalence of child stunting, underweight, and wasting is lower in households with off-farm income than in households without. Using a structural model, we also show that off-farm income contributes to higher food production and farm income by easing capital constraints, thus improving household welfare in multiple ways.     

Viewpoint: Climate impacts on agriculture: Searching for keys under the streetlight

This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature estimating the consequences of climate impacts in agriculture and the food system. This literature focuses overwhelmingly on the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, higher temperatures and changing precipitation on staple crop yields. While critically important for food security, we argue that researchers have gravitated to measuring impacts ‘under the streetlight’ where data and models are plentiful. We argue that prior work has largely neglected the vast majority of potential economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. A broader view must extend the impacts analysis to inputs beyond land, including the consequences of climate change for labor productivity, as well as for purchased intermediate inputs. Largely overlooked is the impact of climate change on the rate of total factor productivity growth and the potential for more rapid depreciation of the underlying knowledge capital underpinning this key driver of agricultural output growth. This broader view must also focus more attention on non-staple crops, which, while less important from a caloric point of view, are critically important in redressing current micronutrient deficiencies in many diets around the world. The paper closes with numerical simulations that demonstrate the extent to which limited input and output coverage of climate impacts can lead to considerable underestimation of the consequences for food security and economic welfare. Of particular significance is the finding that humans in the humid tropics are likely more vulnerable to heat stress than are many of the well-adapted crops, such as rice. By omitting the impact of heat stress on humans, most studies of climate impacts greatly understate the welfare losses in the world’s poorest economies.     

Can food safety shortfalls disrupt ‘Ag for Nutrition’ gains? Evidence from Eid al-Adha

The international health community has stressed the need to raise consumption levels of animal-source foods in developing countries. Development programs based on so-called ‘agriculture for nutrition’ strategies emphasize the importance of smallholder livestock production to achieve these goals. While much of the literature has highlighted the high nutritional potential of such foods, little attention has been paid to infrastructural deficiencies for handling and processing animal-source foods, particularly meat. Such shortfalls in food safety have the potential to counteract some health gains, especially if renewed efforts to increase animal consumption are not combined with improved processing capacity. The spike in meat consumption among Muslims worldwide on Eid al-Adha provides a natural experiment to test the extent to which such food safety concerns are justified. Meat processing on this holiday often exceeds the capacity of formal slaughter and processing infrastructure, and thus provides an excellent opportunity to observe the implications of a rapid intensification of meat production and consumption across several countries. Using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from countries in Africa and Asia, we estimate the impact of this holiday on the incidence of diarrheal illness among children. Eid al-Adha provides a plausibly exogenous source of variation in home or informally sourced meat consumption among Muslims, a natural comparison group (Non-Muslims) and independence from seasonal influences (the holiday follows the lunar Islamic calendar). We find that relative to non-Muslims, diarrhea morbidity increases for Muslim children following Eid al-Adha by 18 percent. No such similar increase is found on Eid al-Fitr, a similarly important Muslim holiday without extensive home slaughter. These findings reinforce the importance of food safety concerns in livestock sector interventions.     

Getting rid of trans fats in the US diet: Policies, incentives and progress

Artificial trans fats in foods increase chronic disease risk in the US population. Federal nutrition label regulation enacted in 2003 requires mandatory disclosure of trans fat content on packaged foods. This action created incentives for the food industry to reduce trans fats both in response to consumer demand and through competition to maintain product reputation. Subsequent public actions include a ban on trans fat use in New York city restaurants and lawsuits against food companies, which created further incentives to remove trans fats, especially in the food service industry. Industry has reformulated packaged foods and found substitutes for restaurant fry oils and trans fats are disappearing from the US food supply. Market response extends throughout the supply chain, and has spurred research to alter oilseed crop characteristics. The widespread and relatively rapid industry response likely has improved the quality of US diets, and demonstrates the potential for policy actions to spur such improvements.     

The economics and nutritional impacts of food assistance policies and programs

Recent evidence on malnutrition and poverty raise important questions on the role of food assistance policies and programs. In this review article, we examine evidence on the economic and nutritional impacts of international food assistance programs (FAPs) and policies. The returns on investments in FAPs are, on average, high but depend considerably on the targeting and cost structures as well as on food quality and role of complementary activities. We disaggregate findings into four classes of recipients. Returns to FAPs are highest for children under two. But, FAPs oriented towards early childhood interventions are less well funded than are interventions aimed at school-age children or at the broader, largely adult population even though available evidence indicates that these latter classes of interventions offer considerably lower average returns in economic, health, and nutrition terms. Nonetheless, FAP effectiveness in achieving any of several objectives varies with a range of key factors, including targeting, additionality, seasonality, timeliness, incentive effects, social acceptability and political economy considerations.     

Opening the black box of food waste reduction

Surplus food management plays a key role in food waste reduction. This paper addresses the multifaceted concept of food supply chain sustainability by presenting a model of surplus food generation and management (called ASRW, Availability-Surplus-Recoverability-Waste), which encompasses the integrated food supply chain (i.e. business, environmental and social players). The model was developed using a bottom-up approach, by conducting 30 exploratory case studies and iterating theory development and data analysis. Three confirmatory case studies, from different food supply chain stages, are also presented to demonstrate how the model can be used to identify food waste reduction strategies.     

International migration and nutritional outcomes in Tajikistan

Tajikistan is the country with the largest share of remittances to GDP in the world. At the same time it suffers from stubbornly high levels of child malnutrition against which only very slow progress has been made. This paper investigates the relationship between international migration and child malnutrition, using data from a recent nationally representative household survey. There are theoretical reasons to expect that migration may be exerting both positive and negative effects on nutrition and food security, so that understanding what the net effect may be is essentially an empirical question. Our results indicate that migration appears to be playing a positive role in enhancing child growth patterns (as measured by height-for-age z-scores) in the country. We explore some of the possible channels through which this effect might be operating and find that one such channel is by increasing households’ kilocalorie consumption.     

Using best–worst scaling to explore perceptions of relative responsibility for ensuring food safety

We examine stakeholders’ perceptions of the share of the overall responsibility of each stage in the food supply chain has in ensuring that the meat people cook and eat at home is safe to consume. We elicit these perceptions of relative responsibility via surveys using the best–worst scaling technique and analyse the data via Bayesian estimation of mixed logit models. Results are reported for two groups of stakeholders: consumers and farmers, and for two meat food chains: chicken and beef. The results reveal that consumers tend to think farmers are more responsible for ensuring meat safety than farmers do. Similarly, farmers tend to think consumers have a greater degree of responsibility than consumers believe they have themselves. Such beliefs might affect stakeholders’ willingness to take actions and reduce hazards in the supply chain. From a policy perspective, the research findings provide useful insights to support policymakers and other decision-makers in the industry in developing mitigation strategies. Communication with consumers and farmers about emerging food safety problems in a supply chain and their involvement in proactive practices would need to be attuned to their subjective perceptions of relative responsibilities in order for integrated risk management systems to be effective.     

Food supply in Peru: Dependence and transnational monopolies

The Peruvian food supply system is characterized by the stagnation of agricultural production, by the increasing control of oligopolies and by dependence on imports. Traditional consumption patterns are changing and this has contributed to the national agricultural stagnation, the agro-industrial oligopoly and the increasing vulnerability of the country's food supplies. Against this background, the author reviews current strategies and policies for farming and food and resources. An alternative reform of the food supply system is then proposed.     

Assessment of energy intake: Estimates of food supply v measurement of food consumption

National consumption indicators are frequently compiled using food supply estimates in the absence of reliable household or individual intake data. The authors examine the relationship between these three levels of information and in particular, the potential ‘losses’ of energy in the food system, comparing data from different countries and over time. They demonstrate the unreliability of supply estimates as proxy indicators of consumption and question their current usage in statements about global hunger and the links between health and food intake.     

Household history,SNAP participation,and food insecurity

Food security in an important public policy issue. In 2015, approximately 1 in 8 U.S. households experienced food insecurity at some point in the year. Low-income families are at higher risk for food insecurity than other families, and these families may also face higher levels of disruption (e.g., moves, loss of income, or individuals entering or leaving the household) than other families. I use data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation to explore the relationship between food insecurity, the household’s history during the previous year, and SNAP participation. The results indicate that a number of aspects of the household’s recent experience including negative income shocks, moves, and both increases and decreases in household size increase the probability of being food insecure while SNAP participation is estimated to reduce the probability of being food insecure.     

Wars,foodcost and countervailing policies: A panel data approach

Withholding food or providing it during a conflict is vital for peace missions and challenges for building sustainable peace. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new perspective in considering the impact of wars on relative wages in the food sector. We define the foodcost as the share of wages paid to the food sector versus total manufacturing wages. We try to estimate the effect of two types of wars (namely, civil and international wars) on the foodcost and explore the policies that are likely to reduce that cost. We use panel data for 41 countries from 1960 to 1999 to answer these questions.     

Integrating climate change,food prices and population health

The inter-related nature of food, health and climate change requires a better understanding of the linkages and a greater alignment of policy across these issues to be able to adequately meet the pressing social and health challenges arising from climate change. Food price is one way through which climate change may affect health. The aim of this study of the global and Australian food systems is to provide a whole-of-system analysis of food price vulnerabilities, highlighting the key pressure points across the food system through which climate change could potentially have the greatest impact on consumer food prices and the implications for population health. We outline areas where there are particular vulnerabilities for food systems and food prices arising from climate change, particularly global commodity prices; agricultural productivity; short term supply shocks; and less direct factors such as input costs and government policies. We use Australia as a high-income country case study to consider these issues in more detail. The complex and dynamic nature of pricing mechanisms makes it difficult to predict precisely how prices will be impacted. Should prices rise disproportionately among healthy foodstuffs compared to less healthy foods there may be adverse health outcomes if less expensive and less healthy foods are substituted. Higher prices will also have equity implications with lower socio-economic groups most impacted given these households currently spend proportionately more of their weekly income on food. The ultimate objective of this research is to identify the pathways through the food system via which climate change may affect food prices and ultimately population health, thereby providing evidence for food policy which takes into account environmental and health considerations.     

Fear of climate change consequences and predictors of intentions to alter meat consumption

Reducing or altering meat consumption has the potential to significantly lower the impact humans have on climate change. Consumers, however, are unlikely to break their food habits unless they are aware of the problem and motivated by the solutions. Fear appeals are often used to overcome this, however, their effectiveness in the context of meat reduction and climate change is unclear. Given the widespread use of fear appeals in information policy, it is important to understand more. The aim of this study was to explore fear—or more specifically—the danger control process in a climate change—food context in order to understand the factors which motivate consumers to reduce or alter their meat consumption. Using a stratified random sample of 222 respondents in Southern Sweden, we develop a model for predicting intentions to adopt specific and general actions to reduce or alter meat consumption. Our results suggest that the general key to motivating consumers is through increasing their self-efficacy towards adopting meat alternatives and educating them on the importance their actions have in reducing the threat. We also found that appraising the threat to self (or those close) was significant, but surprisingly the effect size was greater when the threat concerned others (e.g. others in impoverished nations, animals).