The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What's in a name?

The term we used to describe the study of alternative futures is important. Disciplines and discourses do not emerge from a vacuum but have a history and a cultural context; and their names can hide as much as they reveal. This paper examines such terms as ‘futurology’ and ‘foresight’, and argues that to emphasise plurality and diversity the study of the future is best served by the moniker ‘futures studies’. It suggests that remembering the history of futures discourse is necessary to resolve the crisis of identity and meaning, and frequent fruitless reinvention, of the field. Finally, it presents Sardar's four laws of futures studies: futures studies are wicked (they deal largely with complex, interconnected problems), MAD (emphasise Mutually Assured Diversity), sceptical (question dominant axioms and assumptions) and futureless (bear fruit largely in the present).     

A happy “half way-house”? Medium term inflation targeting in New Zealand

The 2002 Policy Targets Agreement (PTA) between the government and central bank of New Zealand asks the central bank to target inflation “over the medium term” rather than over an annual target. Delegating such a medium term objective to the central bank shifts inflation targeting towards a “halfway-house” between inflation targeting and price level targeting. We show empirically that this helps time consistent policy approximate the first-best commitment policy even when the government asks the central bank to weight output stabilisation differently to society. We estimate the New Zealand economy with a small open economy DSGE model and show that the happiest halfway house is located around a two year averaging horizon at most, which leads to mild improvements in monetary policy efficiency.     

Does Say‐on‐Pay Matter? Evidence from Say‐on‐Pay Proposals in the United States

We investigate the effect of say‐on‐pay (SOP) proposals on changes in executive and director compensation. Relative to non‐SOP firms, SOP firms’ total compensation to CEOs does not significantly change after the proposal. However, the mix of compensation does change—companies move away from using cash compensation toward more incentive compensation, offsetting the reduction in bonus. Further, the mix of compensation of non‐CEO executives changes similarly to that of CEOs. Compensation to directors of SOP firms increases less than non‐SOP firms. Firms whose CEOs are well compensated, especially with cash‐based compensation, are most likely to receive a proposal.     

What is in a name? A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

Names are not merely labels. They have meaning and significance, my own life has been shaped by my name. So what we call our schoalrly pursuits and practice is important. I do prospective, not futures studies. This essay explores the significance of the term ‘prospective’ and suggests that it has aspirations of becoming a discipline.     

Accountability and Transparency in English Local Government: Moving from ‘Matching Parts’ to ‘Awkward Couple’?

Although excessive transparency and accountability demands can have a counterproductive effect on organisational performance (Bovens, 2005), longstanding hierarchical accountability structures to ensure financial conformance in English local government continue to endure. Interestingly however, the previously top‐down regime for performance accountability in English local government has been replaced by bottom‐up mechanisms such as greater transparency and a more open market for public services. Using the framework developed by Hood (2010), this paper will show how such reforms mean that transparency and accountability are moving from being ‘matching parts’ to an ‘awkward couple’, and how this has significant implications for public services.     

Does the “Bund” dominate price discovery in Euro bond futures? Examining information shares

This paper examines the relative information shares of the Bund, i.e. the 10-year Euro bond future contract on German sovereign debt, versus two futures with shorter maturity. We find that the Bund is most important but does not dominate price discovery. The other contracts also have relevant - and at many days even higher - information shares. In examining determinants of information shares, we add order flow measures to market state variables and macroeconomic news. More order flow in a contract consistently increases this contract’s information share.     

Click or Call? Auction versus Search in the Over‐the‐Counter Market

Over‐the‐counter (OTC) markets dominate trading in many asset classes. Will electronic trading displace traditional OTC “voice” trading? Can electronic and voice systems coexist? What types of securities and trades are best suited for electronic trading? We study these questions by focusing on an innovation in electronic trading technology that enables investors to simultaneously search many bond dealers. We show that periodic one‐sided electronic auctions are a viable and important source of liquidity even in inactively traded instruments. These mechanisms are a natural compromise between bilateral search in OTC markets and continuous double auctions in electronic limit order books.