双目标货币工具规则的最优设定与选择

基础货币、短期利率作为我国货币政策操作的两种工具与实际GDP增长率、通货膨胀率之间存在显著相关性,中央银行可以根据这两种货币工具来分别设定满足双重目标要求的货币政策规则.在规则约束下,利率对通货膨胀偏差的反应程度要高于经济增长偏差,而基础货币对经济增长偏差则表现出更高的敏感性;基础货币规则能够实现逆经济风向调节,而利率规则却表现出顺周期调节特征.在实现经济增长与物价稳定的目标时,可在规则中将两个目标值设定为点或区间,由于点目标在操作中缺乏灵活性,所以,适宜将目标设定成一个区间.在货币工具规则的选择上,基础货币规则要比利率规则更适合作为我国货币政策操作的规范.     

中国货币需求的数理分析

运用经济学发展进程中所出现的多种货币需求理论来分析中国的货币需求问题时 ,都不能很好地解释中国的实际情况 ,本文运用即货币供给增长率是经济增长率和预期物价上涨率的函数这一模型 ,以 1994年第一季度至 1998年第四季度共计 2 0个季度的GDP增长率、消费者物价指数和货币供给增长率的数据来拟合模型 ,数理分析的结果表明 ,用GDP增长率和消费者物价指数增长率这两个变量可以较好地说明货币需求增长率     

我国货币流通速度研究

我国目前计算货币流通速度所用的公式一般为V=GDP／M2，由于我国货币供给量的增长率大于通货膨胀率和GDP增长率之和，所以用这一公式计算出的货币流通速度是不断下降的。但在此计算过程中忽略了一个问题：在我国实际的经济运行中有一部分货币并没有进入实体经济中，而是被不断增加的外汇存款所吸收，还有一部分货币进入资本市场，因此在计算货币流通速度时应将这两部分货币扣除。本文在前人研究的基础上计算出我国实体经济的货币流通速度，指出我国实体经济中的货币流通速度并不是不断下降的，而是有升有降，并据此对我国的货币调控政策提出建议。     

货币供给量作为货币政策中介目标适应性研究

文章围绕货币政策中介目标的可测性、可控性和相关性特征,系统地对货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的有效性进行模型分析和数据检验。研究结果表明:货币供给的内生性增强,货币供给的可控性降低;短期货币需求和货币流通速度不稳定,货币供给的可测性较差。但是,货币供给量与GDP和物价之间的相关性较好。     

货币动力学与GDP增长的分析

货币在家庭、企业、政府三者相互博弈形成的社会框架———制度中运行。本文通过对现金持有余额和投资组合的分析 ,以及对货币流通速度的定义 ,用数学物理的方法 ,推导出货币运动的热传导方程 ,证明货币运动具有流体运动特征。提出了GDP增长与货币运动规律的目标及方法 ,只要控制好利息率———现金持有余额 (内生货币 )和汇率———外生货币供给量两个方面 ,就能保证一国货币实现持续稳定高能运行。     

近年来我国宏观货币政策力度剖析

在2008-2009年我国发生经济收缩的阶段,中央银行大规模增加货币供给和降低利率,有力地抵御了经济收缩,但也导致资产价格上升并在一定程度上助长了2010年的通货膨胀。在2010-2011年我国发生通货膨胀的阶段,中央银行大规模收缩货币供给和提高利率,虽然在一定程度上压抑了通货膨胀,但没有解决成本因素导致的通货膨胀,同时还造成了信贷紧缺和经济收缩的压力。近年宏观货币政策的实践表明,我国宏观货币政策存在力度过大的问题。因此,我国需要建立新的宏观货币政策规则,即稳定货币供给的增长率和利率水平,使货币供给和利率随着实际国内生产总值增长率与国内生产总值目标增长率的差额,以及实际通货膨胀率与目标通货膨胀率的差额进行适度调整。     

中国货币供给与经济增长关系的实证研究

金融危机爆发后,为了保持经济平稳高速增长,中国制定了一揽子财政政策和货币政策。将货币政策的中介指标货币供给量与经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究,结果表明:中国实际货币供给量与实际经济增长之间有长期稳定的均衡关系;中国实际经济增长率是实际货币供给增长率的格兰杰原因,但实际货币增长率却不是实际经济增长率的格兰杰原因。     

中国货币政策转换中麦卡勒姆规则的实证检验

本文以2010年1月我国开始实行的货币政策方向转换为着眼点,对货币政策麦卡勒姆规则进行了实证检验。首先,对货币政策麦卡勒姆规则的文献做了一个扼要的综述;其次,简要介绍了麦卡勒姆规则及其发展,并论证了该规则对我国当前的适用性;最后,论文介绍了本文实证样本数据的选择和技术性处理方式;最后,检验了麦卡勒姆规则下我国的基础货币反应函数,并根据我国的实际情况进行了两项改进:一是引入外汇储备增长率这一解释变量,发现模型对基础货币增长率的解释能力得到了增强;二是以通货膨胀率作为解释变量考察基础货币的增速关系,发现通货膨胀率的变动一定程度上是货币政策操作实施后的结果。在此基础上,本文总结了实证结论,并阐述了可能的政策启示。     

宏观调控目标的“十一五”分析与“十二五”展望

本文旨在对我国"十一五"时期宏观经济调控目标的实现情况进行分析,对"十二五"时期的经济增长目标提出相应的政策建议和论证。全文共分四部分:首先,回顾"十一五"规划中有关宏观调控的指导原则和主要目标。其次,说明这些宏观调控目标的实现情况。再次,对"十二五"时期经济增长目标提出政策建议:在"十二五"规划中,经济增长目标的设定可有三种方法:一种是,仍沿用过去的习惯,把目标值设定得比较低;另一种是,可以设定目标区间,即以潜在经济增长率为基准的适度经济增长区间;再一种是,不是设定单一的五年固定不变的目标值,也不是笼统地设定一个目标区间,而是对未来五年中的各年设定不同的、可以反映经济波动趋势的目标值。最后,本文对这些政策建议进行具体的测算与分析。     

中国GDP增长与CPI:关系、均衡与“十二五”预期目标调控

通货膨胀率和经济增长率之间动态关系的认识是宏观调控的基础,然而,目前在线性和静态的分析框架内未能揭示出通货膨胀和经济增长的复杂动态关系。本文运用1996—2009年GDP增长率、CPI与M2增长率的季度数据建立我国经济增长与通货膨胀的非线性动力系统模型(GDP-CPINLDS),揭示了我国最优的季度GDP增长率和CPI,以及零通货膨胀的季度GDP增长率。总体上,我国经济增长与通货膨胀处在次优化的非均衡运行状态,两者呈现出同向性变动的特点。最优调控实验表明,仅调节M2增长率不能完全实现"十二五"调控目标。文章建议"十二五"期间要以调控GDP增长为导向,以从紧货币政策为基础,配合多种调控手段,形成强有力的联合调控机制,以确保GDP增长率和CPI目标的最优实现。     

基本面因素与人民币汇率的协整和方差分析——基于行为均衡汇率理论

在行为均衡汇率理论的基础上,选择对美净出口额、国内生产总值、广义货币供给量和实际利率作为影响人民币汇率的基本面因素,进行协整和方差分析。协整回归结果表明:在长期,广义货币供给量和对美贸易是影响人民币汇率的两个重要因素,广义货币供给量的弹性大于对美贸易量的弹性。但方差分析结果显示:对美贸易量对人民币汇率的贡献程度却大于广义货币供给量对人民币汇率的贡献程度。     

IN SEARCH OF AN OPTIMAL DEBT RATIO FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper extends the work of Barro (1979), Eisner (1992), foines (1991), Sawhney and DiPietro (1994), and others and examines whether an optimal debt ratio exists that will maximize economic growth. The growth rate of real GDP is specified as a function of the debt ratio, the debt ratio squared, the growth rates of labor employment, capital services, money stock, and a trend variable. The sample ranges from 1960 to 1991. Hypothesis tests show that economic growth and its determinants, including the debt ratio are cointegrated and have a long-run stable relationship. Results also indicate that the optimal debt ratio is 38.4 percent for debt held by the public and 48.9 percent for total debt. Thus, the current (1993) debt ratios of 50.9 percent for the debt held by the public and 68.2 percent for total debt are far greater than the desirable levels.     

REAL GDP IN THE SEVEN COLONIES OF AUSTRALASIA: 1861–1991

Using data on regional money stocks, a variant of Fisher's (1911) quantity theory of money identity, and a technique first suggested by Doblin (1951) and Friedman (1961), this paper presents the first consistently-based estimates of real GDP in each of the seven British colonies of Australasia for the period 1861–1991. Examination of the historical pattern of growth in the regional economies of Australasia has not previously been undertaken, due in particular to the dearth of data on aggregate incomes for the colonies (later states) of Australia. The data calculated here reveal the historical pattern of the domination of New South Wales, Victoria and New Zealand in real Australasian GDP, and the shrinkage of the cross-sectional dispersion of real per capita GDP in the seven colonies over this 13 1-year period.     

Agricultural and monetary shocks before the great depression: A graph-theoretic causal investigation

This paper uses graph-theoretic methods to investigate the causal relationships between agriculture, money, interest rates, prices, and real GDP in 12 countries during the years 1869–1929. We find that agricultural production directly and indirectly causes real GDP in two-thirds of the cases. Monetary shocks also play an important causal role in about half the cases, but unlike agriculture, the causal links are usually indirect through other variables to real GDP. The direct causal link between money and prices is also particularly strong. Between 1869 and 1929, money causes prices in nearly all of the countries in the sample.     

The myth of China’s monetization

This article develops a simple model of M2/GDP based on the money demand function of Milton Friedman. This model proves that M2/GDP is positively related to the expected wealth and negatively related to the opportunity costs of holding money. China’s extremely high monetization ratio as measured by M2/GDP is the result of a decades-long rapid economic growth and a depressed financial system. Fast economic growth leads to high expected wealth. A depressed financial system leads to low opportunity costs of holding money. The combination of those two factors increases money demand and leads to very high M2/GDP. The model is verified indirectly by testing two implied testable hypothesizes. The study of this article raises questions on the accuracy of M2/GDP as a measure of monetization.     

Trade volume and economic growth in the MENA region: Goods or services?

This paper explores the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of goods and service trade on the economic performance of MENA countries for the period 1960–2011. While the MENA region has been widely neglected in the trade and growth literature, this paper offers a decomposition of MENA GDP growth in order to disentangle the contributions of both service and goods trade. The results show a positive association between real GDP and both service and goods trade. The interaction term between trade in goods and trade in services is negative, suggesting that as goods trade increases, the marginal effect of service trade on real GDP decreases. However, the overall effect of service trade on real GDP is positive. The decomposition of GDP growth reveals a greater impact of goods trade, although service trade is important, and for most countries greater than the effect of tertiary enrolment.     

Stability of Money Demand and Monetary Policy in Papua New Guinea (PNG): An Error Correction Model Analysis

An error correction model (ECM) is used to study the Properties of money demand and to evaluate the appropriate monetary policy in PNG. The study confirms that the determinats of money demand are real GDP, nominal interest and inflation rate. The income elasticity of money demand is very low. The demand for money in PNG was stable during 1979-95, suggesting that the monetary targeting regime by the PNG Central Bank is feasible. However, as PNG proceeds with economic reforms that Includes financial sector reform and a floating exchange rate regime, the stability of the demand for money may have to be re-examined periodically. The best approach for conducting the monetary policy in PNG is to target the inflation rate. [E41, E52, C22]     

State dependent asymmetric loss and the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth

It has been well documented that the consensus forecast from surveys of professional forecasters shows a bias that varies over time. In this paper, we examine whether this bias may be due to forecasters having an asymmetric loss function. In contrast to previous research, we account for the time variation in the bias by making the loss function depend on the state of the economy. The asymmetry parameter in the loss function is specified to depend on set state variables which may cause forecaster to intentionally bias their forecasts. We consider both the Lin–Ex and asymmetric power loss functions. For the commonly used Lin–Ex and Lin–Lin loss functions, we show the model can be easily estimated by least squares. We apply our methodology to the consensus forecast of real U.S. GDP growth from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We find that forecast uncertainty has an asymmetric effect on the asymmetry parameter in the loss function dependent upon whether the economy is in expansion or contraction. When the economy is in expansion, forecaster uncertainty is related to an overprediction in the median forecast of real GDP growth. In contrast, when the economy is in contraction, forecaster uncertainty is related to an underprediction in the median forecast of real GDP growth. Our results are robust to the particular loss function that is employed in the analysis.     

我国M_2/GDP的动态增长路径、货币供应量与政策选择

本文试图求解我国M2/GDP的动态增长路径,并对与此相关的金融政策选择进行分析。研究发现,我国M2/GDP的变动路径具有Logistic曲线的基本形状,将经历先加速上升后增长速度逐渐减缓,最终趋于稳定状态的变化过程。本文估算了我国M2/GDP的增长上限及其变化拐点。研究还发现,M2/GDP的上升并不必然意味着通胀压力加大,只有M2/GDP偏离动态增长路径时,才会对通货膨胀产生影响。据此本文估算了2005年货币供应量的合理区间。本文认为,应继续实施稳健货币政策,合理确定货币总量增长速度,继续推进体制性改革等措施确保经济金融的稳定运行。     

The energy consumption-real GDP nexus revisited: Empirical evidence from 93 countries

In this paper, we analyse the long-run relationship between energy consumption and real GDP for 93 countries. We find mixed results on the impact of energy consumption on real GDP, with greater evidence at the country level supporting energy consumption having a negative causal effect on real GDP. For the G6 panel of countries, we find significant evidence that energy consumption negatively Granger causes real GDP. This means that for countries where energy consumption has a negative long-run causal effect on real GDP, energy conversation policies should not retard economic growth. We identify these countries and regional panels. We argue that these countries/regions should play a greater role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions.