Migration and the wage and unemployment gaps between urban and non-urban sectors: A dynamic general equilibrium reinterpretation of the Harris–Todaro equilibrium

This paper offers a dynamic general equilibrium reinterpretation of the static partial migration equilibrium by Harris and Todaro [Harris, J., Todaro, M., 1970. Migration, unemployment and development; a two-sector analysis. American Economic Review 60, 126–142], under (i) flexible urban and rural wages and (ii) free mobility of workers and free entry of firms. The proposed model accounts for the set of stylized facts in developing countries: rural to urban migration and higher urban wages and unemployment.The model allows us to view the wage gap as a compensating differential for the negative amenities associated with job destruction and subsequent costly search on the consumption side, which can also be seen as a match-specific premium based on a sectoral productivity differential on the production side. Our model predicts the comovements among urban and non-urban wages and migration flows to the urban sector, an empirical regularity observed over the urbanization process of developing economies. Finally, we also conduct a welfare analysis.     

Incidence and duration of unemployment spells: Implications for the male–female wage differentials

We demonstrate in this paper that the incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells affect the male–female gender wage differential. The results indicate that after controlling for sample selectivity bias in the wage equation, the incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells account for about 14.2% and 39.6%, respectively, of the wage differential that exists between males and females. We observed that while the duration of unemployment accounts for a substantial portion of the wage differential in both the service (48.8%) and the manufacturing (17.0%) sectors, the impacts of the incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells variables on the wage differential are rather small in the service (0.07%) and the manufacturing (1.6%) sectors. Also, high incidence of unemployments is associated with low wages for males and females in all samples. In contrast, longer durations of unemployment spells tend to increase males’ wages and decrease females’ wages in the full and service sector samples. At the macro level, the results seem to suggest that promotion of gender wage equality should be associated with policies that will minimize the female's incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells.     

Informality in developing economies: Regulation and fiscal policies

This paper proposes a unified theoretical framework where formal and informal firms coexist and face the same type of product and labor market imperfections: they have monopoly power in the goods market, they are subject to matching frictions in the labor market, and wages are determined by bargaining between large firms and their workers, through either individual or collective bargaining. Our model matches the main stylized facts on informality for developing countries and appears to be a good candidate for policy analysis. In this framework, we study the impact on informality, wages and unemployment of policies that may be used to reduce informality. We consider changes in product market regulation (PMR) and in two types of fiscal policies, labor taxes and formality enforcement. We find that lessening PMR decreases informality and unemployment simultaneously, indicating that there is not necessarily a tradeoff between informality and unemployment. The tradeoff appears when fiscal policies are used, though. Moreover, the impacts of PMR on unemployment and on wages are larger under collective than individual bargaining. With respect to wage inequality, lessening PMR reduces it, while lower taxes tend to increase the formal sector wage premium.     

THE IMPACT OF LABOR MARKET REGULATION ON EMPLOYMENT IN LOW‐INCOME COUNTRIES: A META‐ANALYSIS

Controversy over labor market policy often centers on achieving a balance between preventing worker exploitation, and avoiding loss of productivity or employment through excessive regulation. Although the literature documenting the impact of labor market regulation on employment is extensive, there is a dearth of evidence on the impact of such policies in low‐income countries (LICs). Since it is easier for workers, especially women, to slip into the informal sector in LICs, regulations are likely to have stronger impacts on formal employment in these countries (but lower impacts on unemployment). We systematically reviewed available research from countries that are, or were until recently, LICs. Most studies document that more stringent labor regulations are associated with lower formal sector employment and higher informal sector employment. We also conducted a metaregression analysis of the impact of minimum wages on formal and informal employment. After controlling for publication bias, higher minimum wages are associated with lower formal employment and a higher share of informal workers.     

China''s State-Owned Enterprises in the First Reform Decade: An Analysis of a Declining Monopsony

We study the evolution of employment and wage outcomes in Chinese SOEs during the first decade of economic reforms, using a panel of data for almost 1000 enterprises covering the years 1980–90. Unlike the 1990s, which were marked by growing labor redundancy in the SOE sector, we find that CPE-fostered capital-intensity remained so extreme during the 1980s that workers' marginal products exceeded their full wages, just as in a classical monopsony outcome. Consistent with reasoning about the impact of competition upon monopsony, however, we find the marginal product-wage gap declined in the face of market-oriented reforms, and that monopsony was weakest where the state sector's shares of industrial output and enterprises were lowest, and for smaller enterprises and enterprises managed by lower levels of government. Our analysis also supports Xu and Zhuang's (1996) finding that bonus payments increased enterprises' revenues by more than it did their costs.     

Minimum wages,wages and employment in various sectors in Honduras

This paper contributes to our understanding of the impact of minimum wages on labor markets of developing countries, where there are often multiple minimum wages and compliance is weak. We examine how changes in more than 22 minimum wages over 1990–2004 affect employment, unemployment and average wages of workers in different sectors, defined by coverage under the legislation. The evidence suggests that minimum wages are effectively enforced only in medium and large-scale firms, where a 1% increase in the minimum wage leads to an increase of 0.29% in the average wage and a relatively large reduction in employment of ? 0.46%. We find that public sector wages emulate minimum wage trends but the higher cost of labor does not reduce employment there. There are no discernable effects of minimum wages on the wages of workers in small-firms or the self-employed; yet, higher minimum wages may create more unemployment. We conclude that (even under our upper bound estimate of the effect on the wages of workers) the total earnings of workers in the large-firm covered sector fall with higher minimum wages in Honduras, which warrants a policy dialogue on the structure and level of minimum wages.     

Estimating the effects of the minimum wage in a developing country: A density discontinuity design approach

This paper proposes a framework to identify the effects of the minimum wage on the joint distribution of sector and wage in a developing country. I show how the discontinuity of the wage distribution around the minimum wage identifies the extent of noncompliance with the minimum wage policy, and how the conditional probability of sector given wage recovers the relationship between latent sector and wages. I apply the method in the “PNAD,” a nationwide representative Brazilian cross‐sectional dataset for the years 2001–2009. The results indicate that the size of the informal sector is increased by around 39% compared to what would prevail in the absence of the minimum wage, an effect attributable to (i) unemployment effects of the minimum wage on the formal sector and (ii) movements of workers from the formal to the informal sector as a response to the policy.     

Perceptions of economic insecurity: Evidence from Russia

Economic insecurity is an inherent characteristic of the transition from a planned economy to a market-oriented economy and workers’ assessments of their economic insecurity have direct consequences not only for their happiness/well-being, but also on consumption and saving behavior. This study utilizes data from the nationally representative Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to study perceptions of economic insecurity among workers in both rural and urban settlements. Analyzing three measures of perceived economic insecurity, we find that perceptions of insecurity were higher when economic conditions were deteriorating (1995–1998), and lower when economic conditions had stabilized (2000–2004). While perceived insecurity varies substantially by worker characteristics–those with less education, women, and unskilled and semi-skilled manual workers feel most vulnerable–, differences in observed characteristics explain a relatively small part of the ruralurban perceptions gap; other factors, such as different rates of economic recovery in rural and urban locales are also important. Individual well-being and household consumption tend to be lower when concerns about economic insecurity are present.     

The impact of minimum wages on wages,work and poverty in Nicaragua

In this paper we use an individual- and household-level panel data set to study the impact of changes in legal minimum wages on a host of labor market outcomes including: a) wages and employment, b) transitions of workers across jobs (in the covered and uncovered sectors) and employment status (unemployment and out of the labor force), and c) transitions into and out of poverty. We find that changes in the legal minimum wage affect only those workers whose initial wage (before the change in minimum wages) is close to the minimum. For example, increases in the legal minimum wage lead to significant increases in the wages and decreases in employment of private covered sector workers who have wages within 20% of the minimum wage before the change, but have no significant impact on wages in other parts of the distribution. The estimates from the employment transition equations suggest that the decrease in covered private sector employment is due to a combination of layoffs and reductions in hiring. Most workers who lose their jobs in the covered private sector as a result of higher legal minimum wages leave the labor force or go into unpaid family work; a smaller proportion find work in the public sector. We find no evidence that these workers become unemployed.Our analysis of the relationship between the minimum wage and household income finds: a) increases in legal minimum wages increase the probability that a poor worker's family will move out of poverty, and b) increases in legal minimum wages are more likely to reduce the incidence of poverty and improve the transition from poor to non-poor if they impact the head of the household rather than the non-head; this is because the head of the household is less likely than a non-head to lose his/her covered sector employment due to a minimum wage increase and because those heads that do lose covered sector employment are more likely to go to another paying job than are non-heads (who are more likely to go into unpaid family work or leave the labor force).     

The paradox of China's growing under-urbanization

It is commonly believed that China began the socialist era as a very under-urbanized country relative to its level of development and that it has been eliminating this urbanization gap during the post-1978 period as a result of its economic reforms. Our reexamination of the relationship between per capita income and urbanization that underpins the conventional view suggests that China was not under-urbanized before or during the early period of the reform. Actually, China's urbanization gap appeared and grew in the late period of reform despite mass migration from rural to urban areas. This growing urbanization lag is mainly due to the slow pace in eliminating restrictions on rural–urban migration during a period of rapid economic growth. We call attention to this emerging urbanization lag as it entails significant economic costs in employment and retards economic growth.     

Productivity insurance: The role of unemployment benefits in a multi-sector model

We construct a multi-sector search and matching model where the unemployed receives idiosyncratic productivity shocks that make working in certain sectors more productive than in the others. Agents must decide which sector to search in and face moving costs when leaving their current sector for another. In this environment, unemployment is associated with an additional risk: low future wages if mobility costs preclude search in the appropriate sector. This introduces a new role for unemployment benefits – productivity insurance while unemployed. For plausible parameterizations unemployment benefits increase per-worker productivity. In addition, the welfare-maximizing benefit level decreases as moving costs increase.     

中国转轨时期宏观经济政策传导机制及政策效应的模拟分析

在中国从计划经济体制向市场经济体制的转变过程中，作为平抑经济周期波动、稳定经济发展的各项宏观经济政策发挥了不可忽视的作用。本文根据中国在转轨时期所具有的经济特点，构建了一个小型的宏观经济联立方程模型，并根据中国当前的经济形势，模拟了2003-2004年货币政策和财政政策对宏观经济的影响。得出的结论为，由于传导机制的不畅，导致我国当前货币政策的效果、旨在增加农村居民收入的减税政策的效果不明显，而扩大城镇居民消费的、提高职工工资的政策效果则比较显著。     

企业私有化程度提高则社会环境会变差？

从企业私有化角度出发,构建二元经济理论模型和实证模型分析私有化对环境污染的影响。理论研究发现,由于城市部门资本密集程度高于农村部门,而且如果农村劳动者从环境改善中获得的边际效用小于城市劳动者从环境改善中获得的边际效用,那么提高私有化导致单位产出污染排放减少时会引起：（1）劳动和资本要素会向城市流动,城市工业部门产出增加;农业部门由于劳动和资本流出而导致产出减少,即城市扩张而农村收缩;(2)城市地区的失业总人数会增加;(3)私有化导致单位产出污染排放减少的效应大于工业产出增加导致污染排放增加的效应,最终导致社会环境改善,但如果私有化导致单位产出污染排放增加,则会得出相反的结论。实证结果表明：企业私有化水平提高有利于降低单位产出固体废物、废水、二氧化硫和烟尘等污染物的排放,资本投入也有利于降低单位产出污染物的排放。     

A spatial analysis of inward FDI and urban–rural wage inequality in China

This article investigates the spatial effect of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on urban–rural wage inequality, both in the short and long run, by employing the Spatial Durbin Model. In particular, we carefully consider the heterogeneity of inward FDI with respect to its entry mode (ownership type) and sectoral distribution. Based on a panel dataset covering 30 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2016, our results show that inward FDI does not increase urban–rural wage inequality. In particular, we do not find a significant relationship between inward FDI in the secondary and tertiary sectors, while inward FDI in the primary sector has a slightly negative effect on inequality. When we consider inward FDI by entry mode, we find that wholly foreign-owned enterprises (WFE) have a negative spatial effect on urban–rural wage inequality in the short and long run, while equity joint ventures (EJV) reduce urban–rural inequality in the long run only.     

我国城乡居民收入差距过大的主要原因分析

中国近30年的经济体制改革,成绩有目共睹、不容置疑,但改革进一步深化、社会进一步发展所面临的矛盾也是很明显的。在众多的矛盾中,城乡居民收入差距作为矛盾中的焦点问题,更是引起了广泛的社会关注。过高的城乡居民收入差距,从眼前看将直接关系着改革的深入进行、经济的可持续发展以及社会和民心的稳定,从长远看则关系着全民小康社会的最终实现和现代化的成败。可以说,找出城乡居民收入差距过大的主要原因是很有必要的,这对缩小当前我国城乡居民收入差距具有重大的意义。     

Public–private sector wage differentials and the business cycle

This paper uses microeconomic data for the period from 1990 to 2004 to examine the relationship between public–private sector wage differentials and labour market conditions in Finland. The results show that the public sector wage premium is strongly counter-cyclical. On average, a 10 percent increase in the local unemployment rate increases the public–private sector wage gap by one percent. Separate analyses by government sector and quantiles of the distribution of wages reveal that it is local government workers and those working at lower skill levels who benefit more from increasing unemployment rate. The paper also exploits the longitudinal structure of the data to examine whether the results are constant over time. These results indicate that the cyclical pattern primarily emerges in years with deteriorated labour markets.     

Robust political economy correlates of major product and labor market reforms in advanced economies: Evidence from BAMLE for logit models

The political economy literature has put forward a multitude of hypotheses regarding the drivers of structural reforms, but few, if any, empirically robust findings have emerged thus far. To make progress, we draw a parallel with model uncertainty in the growth literature and provide a new version of the Bayesian averaging of maximum likelihood estimates (BAMLE) technique tailored to binary logit models. Relying on a new database of major past labor and product market reforms in advanced countries, we test a large set of variables for robust correlation with reform in each area. We find widespread support for the crisis‐induces‐reform hypothesis, as high unemployment and economic crises are robustly correlated to structural reforms. We also find evidence of reform convergence—that is, countries with tighter regulation are more prone to liberalize. Reforms are more likely when other countries also undertake them and when there is formal pressure to implement them. Other robust correlates are more specific to certain areas—for example, international pressure and political factors are most relevant for product market and job protection reforms, respectively.     

Market reforms in the time of imbalance

We study the consequences of product and labor market reforms in a two-country model with endogenous producer entry and labor market frictions. We focus on the role of business cycle conditions and external constraints at the time of reform implementation (or of a credible commitment to it) in shaping the dynamic effects of such policies. Product market reform is modeled as a reduction in entry costs and takes place in a non-traded sector that produces services used as input in manufacturing production. Labor market reform is modeled as a reduction in firing costs and/or unemployment benefits. We find that business cycle conditions at the time of deregulation significantly affect adjustment. A reduction of firing costs entails larger and more persistent adverse short-run effects on employment and output when implemented in a recession. By contrast, a reduction in unemployment benefits boosts employment and output by more in a recession compared to normal times. The impact of product market reforms is less sensitive to business cycle conditions. Credible announcements about future reforms induce sizable short-run dynamics, regardless of whether the announcement takes place in normal times or during an economic downturn. Whether the immediate effect is expansionary or contractionary varies across reforms. Finally, lack of access to international lending in the wake of reform can amplify the costs of adjustment.     

二元经济结构视角下民生性财政支出与消费关系研究

习近平总书记指出目前中国正处于新发展阶段,我们要加快构建新发展格局,扩大内需,刺激消费。在此背景下,论文依托中国2013-2019年31个省相关的统计数据,利用个体固定效应模型分析民生性财政支出各组成部分对城乡居民消费水平的共性和差异化影响。研究表明,环境保护和住房保障支出对于城乡居民消费水平都没有显著的作用,而教育支出、社会保障和就业这两项支出对城镇居民消费水平的作用较为显著,医疗卫生支出对农村居民来说是正向的。     

最低工资对正规部门、非正规部门工资和就业的影响

本文根据是否遵守最低工资标准,将劳动部门分为正规部门和非正规部门。利用中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）微观数据,运用固定效应模型和Multinomial Logit模型,本文实证研究了2004年以来,最低工资对正规部门和非正规部门工资和就业的影响。研究发现：最低工资每提高1%,正规部门工资会增加0.5%,非正规部门平均工资下降统计不显著,而处于最低工资线附近的非正规部门劳动者工资下降0.77%;最低工资提高使得失业者向非正规部门流动,而非正规部门劳动者向正规部门流动,最终将有利于劳动者在正规部门就业。因此,政府在制定最低工资制度时应全面考虑最低工资标准作用效果的部门差异。