新形势下推进我国银行业国际化经营的战略思考

经济金融全球化是当今重要的时代潮流，它深刻地影响着世界经济格局，也对我国经济金融发展产生深远的影响。本文在全面分析我国银行业国际化经营现状的基础上，提出了推进我国银行业国际化经营战略的基本设想：统一规划和构建银行业国际化经营的战略平台；积极建立以大型商业银行为主体的国际化经营机构布局；重点拓展亚洲、欧洲、美国三大金融战略区域；有选择地推进我国银行业对国外银行机构的重组、并购和联合经营；选择成熟的国际金融产品为平台，逐步构建银行业国际化经营的产品序列；以我国跨国公司为载体，加强国际化经营的战略协同；进一步构建与国际银行业接轨的风险控制系统。     

对我国银行业稳健经营的思考

我国银行业运营现状是：资本充足率低，资本结构不合理；负债结构不合理，经营成本高；资产结构不合理，资产业务运隐忧颇多；中间业务薄弱，结算业务效率低下。我国银行业国际金融环境聚变的原因是：国际商业银行集中化、全能化经营；金融创新日新月异，网络化服务和电子银行正成为金融服务的主要手段；银行业日益国际化。为促进我国银行业稳健经营，应该加强金融监管，构筑“四位一体”的金融监管体系；推进商业银行的市场化；发展资本市场，诱导金融结构升级；加快以信息技术为特征的金融创新步伐。     

改善经营环境是国有商业银行扭亏增盈的根本途径——对随州市银行业经营效益原调查与思考

随州市银行业经营效益调查研究表明：尽管基层行近两年来通过不良资产剥离，上存资金和大量削减非营业费用等途径扭亏增盈，使银行效益状况有所改善，但是现行银行经营管理机制和外部环境劣化两大问题仍从根本上制约着基层银行业的生存与发展。本文认为:基层行要摆脱经济困境，必须采取；标本兼治、综合治理”的方法，以经营目标为导向，花大力气营造自身良好的生存与发展环境。     

关于加快我国银行实行综合经营的看法

回顾主要市场经济国家的银行经营制度演变，对照我国目前实行分业经营管制的现状，我国银行业经营制度有必要进行重大改革，应当尽快取消现在的分业经营管制，促使我国银行业尽快实行综合经营。实行综合经营有利于我国银行适应金融一体化、金融证券化和金融网络化的要求；实行综合有助于我国银行经营适应利率市场化需要，防范利率风险；实行综合经营有利于我国金融可持续发展；实行综合经营有利于我国金融市场进一步规范化。要加快我国银行实行综合经营的改革步伐，必须廓清一些思想认识上的模糊观念；要修改现行商业银行法、加快利率市场化改革步伐、并且选择具备条件的银行进行综合经营试点。     

加强党的执政能力建设 促进银行业的有效监管

加强党的执政能力建设，提高基层银行业的监管水平和依法执政能力，促进银行业的稳健经营与健康发展，是新时期基层银行业监管分局的一项重要工作目标和历史使命。当前，我们就是要将党的执政能力建设紧密结合到银行业监管工作，以理论指导实践，把党的执政能力建设体现到监管为民的要求上，落实到银行业改革的发展进程中。     

借鉴国际先进经验 提高银行业监管水平

银监会成立以来，正视中国银行业的现状，积极响应国际银行业监管的先进经验，培育新的监管理念。突出监管重点，创新监管方式，境内银行业监管工作取得了长足的进步，中资银行业机构的经营管理发生了显著变化，主要表现在：在发展模式上。正在从规模扩张型向集约发展型转变；在经营理念上，正在从经营货币向经营风险转变；     

金融创新已迫在眉睫

当前，我国银行业资产质量较差、经济效益低、机制偶化、管理粗放仍然是面临的突出问题，也是今后一个时期金融改革的重点和难点。因此，在新的形势下，加快金融创新成为摆在各级金融部门面前的重要课题。只有金融创新，才能构建新的运作模式和经营格局；才能突出自身的经营特色，在竞争中立于不败之地；才能适应社会经济发展的需要，促进金融业自身的发展。从商业银行经营的现状和动态发展角度，笔者提出如下建议。     

探析信贷经营中的隐性风险及防范对策

随着国有商业银行改革的进一步深化，以及经营环境变化和市场多样化的影响，银行业面临的经营风险特别是隐性风险愈来愈大。因此，如何规避信贷经营中的隐性风险，是促进银行业稳健经营和健康发展、防范和化解信贷风险的重要保证。     

加强青海和谐金融建设的几点思考

按照构建社会主义和谐社会的总体要求，不断消除银行业机构在经营和发展中的不和谐因素，促进和谐金融内生机制和共生机制的形成；着力建设公正执法、公平竞争的银行业发展平台，积极推动银行业机构和谐共处，促进银行业监管机构和银行业机构形成和谐互动的关系，构建监管资源联动、互助的新格局，积极探索从银行业监管的角度致力于和谐金融建设的有效途径。     

优化银行网络管理结构提升银行网络可用性

随着全球经济和科技的快速发展，银行业呈现出一些新的发展趋势，如综合化经营、信息化生存、资本化运作和国际化发展，特别是信息技术的迅速发展及其在金融领域的深入和广泛应用，银行业的竞争焦点与经营模式均发生了巨大变化。借助信息技术，银行实现了业务处理自动化、经营管理信息化、客户渠道及其延伸的多样化。实践表明，银行业的经营管理和服务离不开信息技术的应用；信息技术已经成为银行业发展的外在牵引力和实施经营管理变革的利器。因此，银行信息系统对银行生存和发展起着重要作用，而作为承载银行信息系统的基础设施的银行计算机网络，其可用性水平将直接影响银行信息系统的运行质量。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…