Analyzing technological threats and opportunities in wireless data services

The ability to assess the threat and opportunity that technological innovations pose to an organisation's profitability, growth and survival has become one of the key elements in the development of offensive and defensive innovation strategies. Central to this process of assessing technological threats and opportunities is the need to analyze various aspects of identified technological developments. A range of analysis techniques exists, and a number of these are discussed and simultaneously applied to a specific technological development. While threat and opportunity assessment is relevant to almost any company in any industry, it is especially relevant to industries characterised by high rates of volatility such as the communications industry. The technological development, which has been chosen to apply these analysis techniques to, is the offering of 2.5/3G wireless data services, which is currently of great significance in the communications industry. The point of view that is taken is that of a European mobile network operator (MNO) that needs to assess the threats and opportunities that this development poses to its business. The result shows that the analysis process leads to a better understanding of not only the identified developments, their driving forces and enablers, but also their possible impacts on the organisation. This greatly enables the extent to which developments represent a threat or opportunity for a specific organisation to be assessed. In the framework of the overall technological threat and opportunity assessment methodology, the results of the analysis process will feed into the strategy formulation process where possible organisational responses can be developed.     

中小企业技术创新研究初探

技术创新已经成为企业核心竞争能力的关键要素以及促进传统产业升级的主导力量,但是成功的技术创新可以为企业带来相对于竞争对手的显著竞争优势和定价权,而失败的技术创新必将给创新企业带来惨重损失。这就需要从技术创新的概念出发明确认识技术创新的模式及分类,以及企业核心能力的概念,在企业实施技术创新战略时作出正确的路径选择。     

Implications of the Dominant Design in Electronic Initiation Systems in the South African Mining Industry

This article analyzes an emerging technological innovation, namely, electronic initiation systems for mining explosives in South Africa. The concept of electronic initiation is presenting itself as a challenge to traditional initiation systems, particularly cap-and-fuse and shock tube technologies. From a technology strategy viewpoint, the challenge is to determine the nature of the managerial decisions that have to be addressed. The Utterback-Abernathy innovation model is used to assess the evolution of the emerging technology; it is found that the technology is still in the fluid phase and that a dominant design has not yet emerged. Since the dominant design is a very important milestone in the evolvement of the product with regard to both the technical and the business aspects, the immediate managerial focus should be on the evaluation factors that may influence the emergence of the dominant design. The emergence of a dominant design is, however, a complex process that depends on the interplay between a myriad of issues, including technological, market, social, economic, and related aspects. The paper anticipates the technological future of the innovation by exploring the factors that may influence the dominant design of electronic initiation systems, and casts the findings in a format that is useful for managerial decision support.     

面向循环经济的企业技术战略与技术创新转型

在技术层面上,循环经济是一种新的技术范式。技术范式的转换要求技术战略和技术创新做出相应调整。技术战略的调整主要包括技术选择、技术方法论和技术理念。从跨越技术创新陷阱的角度,本文分析了循环经济下两组基本的技术创新形式:渐进性创新和根本性创新、产品创新和过程创新。本文认为,作为技术创新的主体,企业应该按照发展循环经济的要求,积极围绕"3R"原则,通过各种形式的技术创新,构建企业竞争优势。     

Linking technology intelligence to open innovation

The explosive growth of the Internet has led to a dramatic increase in data sources for (competitive) technology intelligence. Appropriate implementation and use of IT tools to gather and analyze these data is of key importance for the creation of actionable technology intelligence. A strategy to optimize investments in the identified technologies becomes of paramount importance if an organization wants to match knowledge and ideas originating from outside of the organization with internal core competences. Such a strategy can create competitive advantage by effectively linking technology intelligence to open innovation.We show how VIB, a life sciences research organization, has established technology intelligence processes to identify a multitude of external technologies of interest, which are subsequently “probed” for their potential and fit with VIB using real options reasoning, thereby supporting open innovation. Our methodology may be useful for other organizations which are considering implementing open innovation approaches.     

A technology opportunities analysis model: applied to dye-sensitised solar cells for China

Technology opportunities analysis (TOA) can support policy-makers or managers in making strategic technical decisions so as to enhance their technological innovation capability and international competitiveness. This paper presents a multi-level framework to support and systematically identify technological opportunities. Patent data as a key component of technology innovation are used to enable TOA within the framework in the present research. At the research and development (R&D) level, we anticipate the directions of technology development based on technology morphology. Countries’ development emphases can also be investigated in order to help identify their R&D strengths and weaknesses and to seek promising development pathways. At the level of competition, we devise the assignee-technology analysis to obtain insight into competitive participants’ technical emphases and intents. It is also used to explore possible collaboration opportunities among them. At the market level, we apply patent family analysis to understand countries’ target markets and to assess prospects for the commercialisation of their technology. We pursue TOA to explore China's opportunities and challenges in dye-sensitised solar cells. The empirical case analysis supports the effectiveness of the TOA model. We believe it can be adapted well to fit other emerging technologies.     

Environmental issues as threats and opportunities for technological innovation

In this article we deal with how large chemical corporations perceive and handle threats and opportunities deriving from environmental problems. We suggest that coalitions or networks are a useful way to analyse the dynamics of the links between separate aspects of the business. A differentation is made between production, innovation and strategy networks. Networks transcend firm boundaries and an analytical distinction is made between networks that remain inside and those external to the corporation. We concentrate on strategy formulation and implementation and on the role of intra-organizational structures. In a pilot study, we interviewed key persons in five chemical companies in the USA and in The Netherland. Conclusions are that firms increasingly adjust their strategies, that this leads to organizational changes; and that environmental, safety and health (ESH) units play some role in this strategy reformulation by becoming part of networks inside the corporation. Some suggestions for further research are given.     

On innovation,social change,and reality

Innovation in social affairs is a far more complex and demanding process than one might believe. Not only are there many excellent general reasons why an apparently “rational” or absolutely “necessary” innovation either fails to be realized or is incorporated in totally unforeseen ways, there are also important specific reasons, associated with individual contexts where innovation is undertaken, that must be taken into account. Ignoring the important idea of the quid pro quo, making facile assumptions about the clarity and importance of the proposed changes, and failing to account for a range of reactions and distortions of implementation may spell disaster to a would-be innovator and his ideas, regardless of the merits of either. To illuminate the concept of innovation is useful. Think of it as a four-step process that includes initiation, reaction or rejection, partial incorporation, and diffusion phases. Each phase presents different problems and opportunities, and each must be considered seriously and explicitly if an innovation is to turn out even remotely as its proponents intended.     

Technological change and future growth: Issues and opportunities

Over the next three decades we may anticipate major technological advances and changes in American society in the area of electronics, automation, information handling, food, and biological manipulations, as well as in the more commonplace areas of industry, commerce, and domestic devices. Dominant elements driving these changes are fundamental shifts in the availability of energy and materials, which will stimulate major innovation in substitutions, extended service life, and easier maintainability; and the increasing role of science as a well-spring of new technologies. Furthermore, the movement of U.S. society into a post-industrial society with its emphasis on knowledge based industries will stimulate major shifts in the nature and location of work, land use, and information-associated technologies. This will be accompanied by a flourishing of social, institutional, and psychological technologies.Market forces will play a dominant role in the realization of these new technological developments. In addition to these forces, technological needs and opportunities will arise which lie outside the market system, such as developments with regard to geophysical manipulation, earthquake control, and weather modification.The principal role of government in assuring continuing benefits from technology is guiding the socially effective interplay of the basic variables: land, labor, capital, resource availability and knowledge. To be socially useful, the interplay must be future-oriented, flexible, and information driven. One specific role for government is setting reliable boundary conditions on private and public endeavors with some clarity and incisiveness to permit market and non-market forces to operate. Put differently, a principal role for government is the more effective management of uncertainties with regard to future potential opportunities and risks in order to encourage new and needed developments and innovations.A principal limitation on technological and scientific decision-making is the inadequacy of knowledge gathered and organized for the purpose of illuminating public policy. Meeting these information needs is a second specific role for government. Since most information is collected for other purposes, modifications which explicity generate and collect policy-related information would effect a major improvement in public and private decisionmaking.The wider practice of the concept of technology assessment as a means to better understand options, alternatives, and consequences for technology should be encouraged in and out of government.Many major regulatory agencies of government reflect needs and problems decades old which are no longer of primary importance. A third specific role for government in guiding technology, the reform of the regulatory agencies through their restructing, offers major opportunities for more effective management of technology. Primary candidates for this specific role of government include agencies regulating communications, drugs, banking, securities, energy, health care, transportation, and marine and oceanographic affairs.The fourth major role for government, research and development, should be driven by several convergent factors. There are opportunities for new and expanded technological developments with regard to: (a)The wiring of metropolitan and rural areas for fuller telecommunications; (b)the introduction of major new energy sources such as solar, geothermal, and ocean technologies; (c)the reformulation of education technologies, welfare, and health delivery systems; and (d) the reconstruction of cities and other habitats. Furthermore, the economically mature society implies not less but different technology emphasizing: social and biological as well as physical technology; personal improvement and fulfillment, and accomplishing more with less. There also are numerous problems of a high-growth society such as the propensity to maximize bureaucratic efficiency at the expense of social effectiveness; alienation of workers; adverse effects of excessive size and integration; societal needs not accommodated by market forces, and the negative side effects of technology. Each of these clusters of problems and opportunities could be profoundly influenced by research and experimentation.     

Development blocks in innovation networks

The notion of development blocks (Dahmén, 1950, 1991) suggests the co-evolution of technologies and industries through complementarities and the overcoming of imbalances. This study proposes and applies a methodology to analyse development blocks empirically. To assess the extent and character of innovational interdependencies between industries the study combines analysis of innovation biographies and statistical network analysis. This is made possible by using data from a newly constructed innovation output database for Sweden. The study finds ten communities of closely related industries in which innovation activity has been prompted by the emergence of technological imbalances or by the exploitation of new technological opportunities. The communities found in the Swedish network of innovation are shown to be stable over time and often characterized by strong user-supplier interdependencies. These findings serve to stress how historical imbalances and opportunities are key to understanding the dynamics of the long-run development of industries and new technologies.     

再论产业化创新：科技创新和产业创新的衔接*

基于科技创新与产业创新的关系以及两者脱节的现状,有必要提出并强化产业化创新的概念。产业化创新介于科技创新和产业创新之间,是两者的桥梁。产业化创新不只是一个概念,更是一种机制,是一种合力。产业化创新有两种方式：产学研协同创新和科技创业。产学研协同创新的内涵,不是企业、大学和研究机构之间的机构意义的协同,而是产业发展、新技术、新产业人才的培养和研发新技术的功能协同。激励产业化创新的机制不只是激励创新,还要激励协同。科技创业是越过了孵化和研发新技术阶段,通过创办企业的方式进行产业化。科技创业的资本是以科技创新成果体现的知识资本、以创业家体现的人力资本和以风险投资体现的物质资本的集合。知识资本和人力资本对创业起着决定性作用,尽管物质资本不可或缺。创新成果产业化涉及两个方面：一是采用新技术的产业迅速达到规模;二是充分实现新技术的潜在价值。这两个方面都依赖于有效的商业模式创新。     

专利视角下人工智能领域技术机会分析

人工智能在全球范围内蓬勃兴起，并成为引领科技进步、推动产业升级的新引擎，受到各国政府和专家学者的高度重视。基于德温特创新索引数据库，从技术融合、创新主体、潜在市场3个维度，对人工智能领域的技术机会进行识别与分析。通过技术主题词共现分析，研究人工智能领域技术融合现状，识别出该领域核心技术；通过创新主体专利分析，识别出人工智能领域潜在技术竞争对手及优势方向，进而发现和拓展技术机会；通过同族专利的海外布局分析，挖掘人工智能技术潜在市场机会，从而为中国人工智能技术前瞻性布局与创新引导政策制定提供有益参考。     

PLACING INNOVATION: AN APPROACH TO IDENTIFYING EMERGENT TECHNOLOGICAL ACTIVITY

Identifying the elements of physical and organizational infrastructure most important for technological innovation is challenging for at least two reasons: measuring technological innovation is difficult; and establishing causality is difficult. In this paper, we partially address these paired challenges by (1) describing a new approach for measuring innovation, and (2) employing that approach to compare established technology regions with emerging ones, and to describe how technologies migrate as they develop.     

From innovation to market entry: a strategic management model for new technologies

In this paper, we introduce a new framework that generates a list of strategic actions to support successful management of the innovation process as new technologies are taken to market. The framework links different stakeholders inside and outside the organisation to obtain an holistic view of the requirements necessary to develop the new technology. It integrates and synthesises existing frameworks into an inclusive set of guidelines. The framework is then tested in a case study located in a mid-size semiconductor organisation currently seeking new business opportunities in the emerging photovoltaic market. We conclude by reflecting on the usefulness of the model. Theoretically, the paper contributes to the literature on the management of the introduction of new technologies; practically, the framework provides a normative tool for practising managers.     

在位企业非连续性技术变革的技术代际桥研究

非连续性技术变革给在位企业带来巨大挑战，要求在位企业克服新技术研发困难和自身潜在惰性进行积极响应，在与新进入企业市场竞争中获取持续竞争优势，化解熊彼特提出的破坏性创新威胁。整合社会网络理论、知识管理理论及创新管理理论，以65家汽车综合型整车在位制造企业为样本，通过搭建发明家桥、合作研发桥、混合技术桥等3个维度的技术代际桥，探讨在位企业如何在维持两代技术阶段性平衡的前提下提高新技术创新绩效。结果发现：发明家桥与企业新技术创新绩效呈倒U型关系；合作研发桥和混合技术桥对企业新技术创新绩效具有显著促进作用；旧技术创新绩效负向调节发明家桥与新技术创新绩效的倒U型关系。研究旨在为在位企业应对非连续性技术变革，提高新技术创新绩效提供相应的对策建议。     

对技术创新推动彩电产业结构调整的思考

彩电市场竞争中洋彩电采用“技术领先”策略占据技术制高点,国产彩电采用“技术适宜”策略占领了市场主体。国产彩电在品牌市场份额竞争的“价格大上呀”中展开库存调整,价格调整,生产调整,技术调整,应深入进行技术战略调整,把“技术适宜”策略调整为“技术创新”战略。通过观念创新,技术创新,管理创新推动彩电产业结的调整,获得彩电市场技术优势,提升国际市场竞争力。     

Technology and the Hydra of terrorism?

In the application of new technologies that address the terrorism problem, an objective is to ensure that the technology does not cause more problems than it solves. Potential new technologies, including convergences of genomics, robotics, information technology, and nanotechnology, might rapidly develop. As with any technological advance, each of these offers a mixture of benefits and risks. At first, a direct approach is reviewed by looking at how these technologies might deter the motive, means, and opportunity for terrorist activities. While there are many potential deterrence applications, other issues are identified that might cause unintended problems in the system. Some of these problems include the possible contribution to terrorist motives by increasing stresses toward divisiveness in society, terrorist means through the development of dual-use technologies, or terrorist opportunities by further developing technological vulnerabilities.Next, a more systemic approach is taken by reviewing a wider range of issues, such as resource availability, management of science and technology, and general societal trends. The balance between technological change and social response is important in realizing benefits while mitigating unintended consequences such as harmful uses through terrorist actions. To explore issues concerning this balance, possible technological development scenarios are reviewed, including the possibility of accelerating or slowing technological development. Some recent recommendations are considered within this context. The need for a balance between technological and social response in this asymmetric situation suggests that the benefits of a rapid technological response against terrorism might not be as large as those observed during World War II.     

企业技术多样性、实质性社会责任信息披露与创新扩散

技术多样性是企业创新能力的重要表征，但现有研究对于技术多样性与创新扩散的关系存在争议。对此，区分相关和不相关技术多样性对创新扩散的异质性影响，并检验实质性社会责任信息披露作为一种信号传递机制对上述关系的调节作用。基于2008—2017年中国研发密集型上市企业数据进行实证分析，结果发现：相关技术多样性能够积极影响创新扩散；不相关技术多样性对创新扩散的影响存在滞后效应；实质性社会责任信息披露正向调节不相关技术多样性与创新扩散的关系。结论丰富了创新扩散理论与实证研究，可为企业创新实践提供决策依据。     

场景驱动的创新：内涵特征、理论逻辑与实践进路

新发展阶段，科技创新要超越传统的技术驱动，把握场景驱动的新范式、新机遇，发挥我国超大规模市场和丰富应用场景的优势，实现从创新追赶到创新引领的跨越。结合数字经济时代世界科技强国建设理论与实践，在回顾现有创新范式的基础上，系统探讨场景驱动的创新的内涵特征、理论逻辑、实践进路与典型案例，并展望未来研究和实践前沿。场景驱动的创新既是将现有技术应用于特定场景，进而创造更大价值的过程，也是基于未来趋势与愿景需求，驱动战略、技术、组织、市场需求等创新要素及情境要素整合共融，突破现有技术瓶颈，开发新技术、新产品、新渠道、新商业模式，乃至开辟新市场和新领域的过程。研究成果可为数字经济时代坚持创新引领发展，加快推进技术、场景和商业模式融合创新，以场景驱动原始性创新、关键核心技术突破、重大技术应用提供重要理论和实践启示。     

专利家族视角下技术演化路径依赖研究——以光刻技术为例

以专利家族为研究视角，阐述技术路径动态演化过程中的路径依赖。专利家族自引会对技术主路径造成干扰，通过对主路径进行调整，提出一种修正技术主路径的新思路。研究发现：光刻技术在“投影对准和曝光系统—浸没式投影物镜—浸没式光刻材料—光刻胶”4个阶段经历了“路径消解—路径产生与路径依赖—路径消解与突破”的动态演化过程。在此过程中，以荷兰阿斯麦、德国蔡司和日本东京电子为代表的专利家族发挥重要作用。其中，以阿斯麦为核心的利益联盟垄断核心技术，强化光刻技术发展的路径依赖作用，占据市场领先地位。研究结论有助于深化对路径依赖理论的认知，通过揭示光刻技术路径演化过程及企业演化格局，为后发国家突破技术路径依赖提供实践启示。