Technological Threat and Opportunity Assessment

One of the major challenges in the management of innovation is a practical and useful implementation of technology forecasting. This article proposes the concept of aniticpating the technological future, and that a structured approach to this concept could be an invaluable aid to technical decision-making. The notion of technological threat and opportunity assessment is presented as a useful framework for anticipating technological change. This notion is based on a dual approach.Firstly, a rapidly changing global technological landscape necessitates keeping track of technological developments. However, since we are dealing with innovation (rather than mere invention), the market implications are as important as the technological ones and have to be accounted for as such. Secondly, any organisation could be considered to be technology-based to some or other degree, implying that technologies have the ability to affect the bottom line of the organisation in some way. It is thus required to assess the business impact of such technologies, typically through a technology or innovation audit.Having assessed specific technological threats and opportunities facing the organisation, an innovation strategy needs to be developed in response to the identified threats and opportunities. Various possible offensive and/or defensive responses should be considered, culminating in the selection and implementation of an optimal strategy.     

专利视角下人工智能领域技术机会分析

人工智能在全球范围内蓬勃兴起，并成为引领科技进步、推动产业升级的新引擎，受到各国政府和专家学者的高度重视。基于德温特创新索引数据库，从技术融合、创新主体、潜在市场3个维度，对人工智能领域的技术机会进行识别与分析。通过技术主题词共现分析，研究人工智能领域技术融合现状，识别出该领域核心技术；通过创新主体专利分析，识别出人工智能领域潜在技术竞争对手及优势方向，进而发现和拓展技术机会；通过同族专利的海外布局分析，挖掘人工智能技术潜在市场机会，从而为中国人工智能技术前瞻性布局与创新引导政策制定提供有益参考。     

绿色与非绿色技术对后续创新影响的比较——“厚此薄彼”还是“双赢策略”

尽管绿色技术一直被认为具有广阔的发展前景,但这些技术在企业间的扩散率却很低。企业在非绿色与绿色技术创新关系上存在“厚此薄彼”的现象。基于1992—2019年中国制造业上市公司专利数据研究发现,相较于非绿色技术,绿色技术的前向引用次数更多,且产生了更大的知识溢出效应,对整个社会后续创新具有更大的正向影响力。此外,由于高能耗行业存在转化成本高、自身知识储备不足等问题,随着能耗水平提升,绿色技术对后续创新的正向影响力逐渐减弱。相较于非国有控股企业,国有控股企业绿色技术对后续创新产生了显著正向影响。该结论对政府设计绿色与非绿色创新“双赢策略”,促进企业从“厚此薄彼”转向绿色与非绿色技术双创新具有重要意义。     

Analyzing technological threats and opportunities in wireless data services

The ability to assess the threat and opportunity that technological innovations pose to an organisation's profitability, growth and survival has become one of the key elements in the development of offensive and defensive innovation strategies. Central to this process of assessing technological threats and opportunities is the need to analyze various aspects of identified technological developments. A range of analysis techniques exists, and a number of these are discussed and simultaneously applied to a specific technological development. While threat and opportunity assessment is relevant to almost any company in any industry, it is especially relevant to industries characterised by high rates of volatility such as the communications industry. The technological development, which has been chosen to apply these analysis techniques to, is the offering of 2.5/3G wireless data services, which is currently of great significance in the communications industry. The point of view that is taken is that of a European mobile network operator (MNO) that needs to assess the threats and opportunities that this development poses to its business. The result shows that the analysis process leads to a better understanding of not only the identified developments, their driving forces and enablers, but also their possible impacts on the organisation. This greatly enables the extent to which developments represent a threat or opportunity for a specific organisation to be assessed. In the framework of the overall technological threat and opportunity assessment methodology, the results of the analysis process will feed into the strategy formulation process where possible organisational responses can be developed.     

Implementing technology roadmap process in the energy services sector: A case study of a government agency

Energy sector has become increasingly sensitive to emerging new technologies as our society is seeking alternative energy sources. Many utility companies and government agencies have started to implement technology planning processes for roadmapping their future technology portfolios. This paper focuses on technology planning in the government energy services sector. Through a case study research method, the paper documents how technology planning and specifically technology roadmaps were implemented at a federal agency tasked with managing power transmission in the Northwest United States. Three application areas are covered: transmission, renewables and energy efficiency. The paper provides details on the Energy Efficiency Roadmaps. Through the review of the case a technology planning methodology based on technology roadmaps is detailed. Key conclusions were reached on how to manage such process implementation in similar organizations. Some of these conclusions can be generalized to those that are implementing technology planning processes for the first time. We concluded that adoption of such methods would require a longer time than anticipated. Organizational changes to adopt the process will likely reduce the time it takes to deliver the required roadmaps. We also found that a typical sequence of events would be Technology Gap Analysis and Identification of Technology Candidates, Evaluation and Prioritization of Technologies, Roadmapping of Technologies and Allocation of Resources to the R&D Programs or to the direct acquisition of the technologies.     

Technology and the Hydra of terrorism?

In the application of new technologies that address the terrorism problem, an objective is to ensure that the technology does not cause more problems than it solves. Potential new technologies, including convergences of genomics, robotics, information technology, and nanotechnology, might rapidly develop. As with any technological advance, each of these offers a mixture of benefits and risks. At first, a direct approach is reviewed by looking at how these technologies might deter the motive, means, and opportunity for terrorist activities. While there are many potential deterrence applications, other issues are identified that might cause unintended problems in the system. Some of these problems include the possible contribution to terrorist motives by increasing stresses toward divisiveness in society, terrorist means through the development of dual-use technologies, or terrorist opportunities by further developing technological vulnerabilities.Next, a more systemic approach is taken by reviewing a wider range of issues, such as resource availability, management of science and technology, and general societal trends. The balance between technological change and social response is important in realizing benefits while mitigating unintended consequences such as harmful uses through terrorist actions. To explore issues concerning this balance, possible technological development scenarios are reviewed, including the possibility of accelerating or slowing technological development. Some recent recommendations are considered within this context. The need for a balance between technological and social response in this asymmetric situation suggests that the benefits of a rapid technological response against terrorism might not be as large as those observed during World War II.     

低碳经济背景下我国生物质能发展分析及比较

生物质能已成为当前世界各国能源发展的重点之一。我国在政策支持以及具体的实践方面已越来越重视生物质能的发展。与国外相比较,我国生物质能的技术水平、政府资金支持等方面都存在巨大差距。我国需要制定长远发展规划,加强生物质能研发,进一步推进低碳经济发展。如进一步加强国家政策支持;全方位拓宽融资渠道;引进技术与加强研发相结合,提升我国生物质能技术;积极发展低碳技术,加强生物质能的国际合作。     

A challenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking

Appropriate demand articulation of emerging technologies to social needs are vital to the economic and social productivity, and it is essential to grasp the future trends of social needs and technology advancement to promote the strategic technology policy. Japan embarked on technology foresight in the early 1970s and has since been conducting a regular Delphi survey approximately every 5 years. To explore a new intelligent methodology for integrating technological seeds and social needs by articulating future demands, this paper reviews the following two cases: the Delphi-scenario writing (DSW) method, which is applied in 1977 for the home/office small facsimile, and the method of general assessment applied in 1972 for informationalization, which focused on the rapidly advancing information society, with a matrix scoring and policy-simulation method. Those new approaches were proved to be a powerful methodology to integrate the technology forecasting and assessment for comprehensive understanding of the emerging technologies and their social impacts in the form of integrated technology road mapping, which supports the integrated strategic planning methodology for enhancing the future innovation system.     

颠覆性技术关注方向演化研究

关注颠覆性技术创新方向演变对于构建颠覆性技术“发现—遴选—培养”机制，挖掘重大颠覆性技术选题具有重要意义。利用三螺旋协同性测度模型量化政府、产业、学术界3类主体对颠覆性技术关注方向的协同程度，构建颠覆性技术行动者网络，利用社会网络分析法解析网络结构形式下政、产、学三方关注颠覆性技术创新的耦合方向，探究高度耦合技术方向的演化特点。最后，获得技术关注方向协同性、技术关注耦合方向特征、技术关注方向耦合时间时序特征、技术关注方向耦合机构特征、高度耦合技术方向演化特征5个方面的结论。     

英国建立技术与创新中心的背景、理念和机制

2010年3月,英国政府出台了《技术与创新中心报告》,其核心内容是建议英国建立一批新的技术与创新中心（TICs）,在技术成长的道路上,对技术进行筛选、整合、培育,直至实现技术的商业化。2010年10B,卡梅伦首相宣布,在未来四年,英国计划投资24L英镑,建立6—8个世纪级技术与创新中心,为英国经济发展注入驱动力。鉴于英国的经验,本文对中国建设国家创新体系的四点建议或思考如下：1．技术创新体系的核心框架：重点产业领域的技术与创新中心;2．技术创新体系的关键任务：形成产业共性技术和关键技术;3．技术创新体系的功能目标：促进科技经济紧密结合：4．政府在建立国家创新体系中的作用：构建框架、引导社会和环境营造。     

新发展阶段科技非对称赶超战略解构——科技跨越论视角

进入新发展阶段，中国科技发展呈现出“跟跑、并跑、领跑并存”的新特征，对科技非对称赶超提出了新要求。基于科技跨越式发展理论，对科技非对称赶超内涵进行阐释，论证其所包含的新逻辑和新机理。通过深入分析英美等发达国家的科技赶超历程，总结出其高度重视发展教育、长期推进基础研究、面向科技前沿等有益经验，客观论述其运作机制紊乱、未能持续推进、缺乏深入研究等深刻教训，并在此基础上反观中国新发展阶段的科技非对称赶超实际，提出把握战略机遇、有效集聚资源、优化人才培养、不断积累优势等政策建议。     

创新生态视角下技术资本化机制研究

科学技术在国民经济中扮演的角色越来越重要，从原本仅作为提高劳动生产率的手段，变为一种具有高度独立性的经济要素，即技术资本。促进技术知识向技术资本转化，需要一定的创新生态环境支持，这种环境包括技术成果积累、专利制度保障、专利产权实施以及来自政府、企业和全社会的创新资本投入。只有在多种环境要素共同作用下，技术作为资本的价值属性才能够被激发出来并服务于国民经济。     

Technological change in niches: Auxiliary Power Units and the hydrogen economy

In studies of large scale systems innovations or technological transitions, niches have been given a prominent role as incubators for the seeds of future technological systems. It is often argued that immature technologies rely on niches for their development, before they are able to compete in mainstream markets. This paper combines insights from economic theory and from technology studies to formulate a framework for understanding the dynamics of technological change in niches, and applies this framework to the case of fuel cell Auxiliary Power Units (APUs). We conclude that the choice of technology for APUs will be of critical importance in determining the role this market could have in shaping future developments in hydrogen and fuel cells. However, a number of factors are not strictly dependent on the technology used in fuel cell APUs. These comprise factors influencing external economies of scale, network effects, the behaviour of users and expectations.     

数字社会建设中的科技治理问题及其法治保障路径

数字社会建设是推进社会治理体系与治理能力现代化的应有之义,现阶段我国数字社会建设中科技治理还处于起步阶段。在“回应法治”的要求下,通过归纳推理分析发现：数字社会建设中科技治理体系构建应从监管、主体、权利、权能4个方面提出完善进路。具体来看：在监管层面,应加强法律监管与社会监管共同作用;在主体层面,应构建多元主体协同治理模式,促使社会主体和市场力量积极参与科技治理;在权利层面,应加强数字科技研发中个人数据权利保障,明确个人数据权利属性;在权能层面,应明晰政府部门、科研专家、社会公众等主体权责关系,明确各治理主体之间的行为权限边界。     

基于集体主义的企业科技向善：逻辑框架与竞争优势

新冠疫情对经济及社会运行造成了重大冲击,除了履行慈善捐赠等传统社会责任行为,一些企业还通过科技创新与善意的产品供给抗击疫情,企业与社会的融合互动更加紧密,据此引出企业科技向善概念。通过厘清企业科技向善概念,梳理了企业科技向善与竞争优势的关系,讨论了企业科技向善的未来研究方向,从企业与社会关系角度丰富和扩展了企业战略管理研究,并为企业管理实践与政府监管提供了新视角。     

Technology-push, demand-pull and the shaping of technological paradigms - Patterns in the development of computing technology

An assumption generally subscribed to in evolutionary economics is that new technological paradigms arise from advances is science and developments in technological knowledge. Further, demand only influences the selection among competing paradigms, and the course of the paradigm after its inception. In this paper, we argue that this view needs to be qualified and modified. We demonstrate that, in the history of computing technology in the 20th century, a distinction can be made between periods in which either demand or knowledge development played the bigger role in shaping the technological paradigms. In the demand enabled periods, new technological (sub-)paradigms in computing technology have emerged as well.     

基于韧性视角的区域硬科技创新组态分析

硬科技是推动我国经济转型升级的关键技术,建设富有韧性的硬科技创新体系已成为提升国家科技实力、应对新一轮科技革命的重要路径。基于韧性视角,构建驱动硬科技创新发展的整合性分析框架,运用定性比较分析方法对中国沿海城市和内陆城市进行组态比较分析。研究发现,沿海城市推动硬科技创新发展的驱动路径有3条,内陆有4条;两类区域驱动路径中,硬科技创新发展的核心驱动条件具有差异性,同时,多样性、进化性、流动性、缓冲性条件的替代关系也不同。研究结论对促进沿海和内陆城市的硬科技创新具有一定借鉴意义。     

‘The Navigator Network’: a New Zealand futurewatch case study

New Zealand's ‘Navigator Network’ is a national scanning network of scientists and policy analysts providing ‘early alert’ advice about emerging areas of science and technology. It was established by the Ministry of Research, Science and Technology (MoRST) to enhance the government's readiness to respond to the opportunities and risks around new technologies, particularly in biotechnology and nanotechnology. The Navigator Network has been tailored to the New Zealand context, which is characterised by a small, well-connected government sector and a strong focus on agricultural biotechnology and food. The network builds on these features, and is ‘people-centric’ rather than ‘information-centric’, using dialogic approaches to generate new knowledge between diverse stakeholder groups. It also focuses on building futures capability in the government and science sectors. Representatives from government agencies are integrated into the process as scanners to facilitate uptake. It also has an adaptive development process via an action learning component.     

技术关联、技术转移对区域技术演化的影响——以成渝地区双城经济圈为例

技术演化是区域实现高质量发展的关键动力。基于1999-2019年成渝地区142个县（市区）、637个专利技术领域的面板数据，考察技术关联、技术转移对成渝地区技术演化的影响，并进一步讨论区域发展阶段和技术含量的异质性作用。研究发现，技术关联、技术转移对区域技术演化均存在促进作用，同时，技术关联在先发地区和低技术含量领域的作用更显著，而技术转移在后发地区和高技术含量领域的作用更显著。进一步研究发现，技术关联、技术转移对区域技术演化存在“倒U”型影响，邻近地区技术演化对本地具有溢出效应。基于上述研究结论，建议成渝地区同时发挥技术关联与技术转移的作用，在发达区域技术关联强的领域加大要素投入，鼓励技术落后区域进行技术引进，加强区域协作，破除研发要素流动壁垒。     

新技术进步会阻碍传统技术创新吗——来自汽车产业的实证检验

在新旧技术竞争过程中，传统企业会适时调整研发策略，以应对新技术进步对传统技术造成的冲击。然而，新技术对传统技术的影响究竟表现为创新替代效应还是创新互补效应，至今依然没有得到确切结论。以汽车产业为研究对象，比较传统燃油汽车和电动汽车两种新旧技术的发展路径，并结合产业生命周期理论提出汽车产业的三阶段演化模型。进一步基于1995—2021年省级专利数据和面板向量自回归模型，从产品创新和工艺创新两个维度实证检验各阶段电动汽车技术进步对传统汽车企业创新的影响。结果表明，在电动汽车产业的范式导入期（1995—2008年），新技术通过产品创新和工艺创新两方面促进传统技术发展；在电动汽车产业的范式构建期（2009—2021年），新技术依然对传统技术有显著推动作用，但仅通过工艺创新促进传统技术发展。