中国金融市场风险与宏观经济景气之间的关联动态研究

为了揭示中国金融体系与宏观经济运行的系列结构性变化及其关联动态,文章分别基于货币流动性宽松程度、剩余收益模型以及银行资产负债表,对中国货币市场、股票市场与银行体系的风险进行了测度和评估;并在分析上述三个金融子市场风险变动规律及其传递机制的基础上,运用时变参数向量自回归模型实证检验了各金融市场风险与宏观经济景气之间的关联动态。研究发现:在金融危机爆发前后,不同金融市场风险之间的传递关系发生了重要转变,并且与宏观经济景气变动之间的交互影响也存在显著的阶段性差异,呈现出"良性循环"与"恶性螺旋"的非对称性切换。这些研究为中国新时期积极转变宏观经济调控政策决策机制、创新宏观经济调控与金融监管模式,实现宏观经济与金融体系的双重稳定提供了有益的经验依据与政策启示。     

1998—2001年财政政策反思

积极的宏观经济政策对经济增长虽然有推动作用(现在这种推动作用正在减弱),但却未实现我们的初衷.而且长期实行积极的宏观经济政策尤其是积极的财政政策会导致经济增长对投资特别是政府投资的过度依赖.政府配置资源的比例越来越高,也会弱化市场配置资源的能力.     

高度重视消费增速下滑趋势

扩大消费是我国近年来重中之重的战略任务。今年以来,城乡居民收入水平较快提高、物价涨幅回落以及国家不断出台的扩大消费政策等因素使消费仍处于较快增长区间,但应注意到,自2011年12月份以来,我国居民消费增速放缓,消费热点增长乏力,消费者信心下滑。短期内,宏观经济政策应从改善消费环境、创新消费政策入手,拓宽消费领域,培育消费热点,提振消费者信心和消费意愿,同时,又要防止短期透支消费,以免对经济长期发展带来不利影响。当前消费增速持续放缓值得关注自2011年以来,居民消费增速趋缓。     

藏汇于民与藏富于民

无论是从近期外汇管理制度的变化，还是财税政策或货币政策的调整，政策提振市场信心的意图市场都能清晰感觉到。     

贸易政策变动对异质性企业生产率的影响——对我国制造业企业数据的实证研究

一国贸易政策变动会带来国内市场开放程度的变化,这会引起国内企业做出相应调整.文中以海关八位码进口关税表示贸易政策变动,采用世界银行提供的1999-2002年我国制造业企业面板数据,实证研究了以关税减让为主的贸易政策变动对我国不同类型企业生产率的影响.结果发现,进口关税减让显著地降低了企业生产率.但是企业类型不同,影响存在差异.关税减让对不出口、不进口机械设备的企业产生了明显的冲击.并且,关税减让对中小企业产生了明显冲击,大型企业的生产率反而在关税减让的过程中明显提高.     

欧洲央行长期再融资操作政策研究

本文对欧洲央行实施的两轮3年期长期再融资操作政策进行了研究。与一般的量化宽松政策相比,二者虽然都是通过扩张央行的资产负债表缓解了市场流动性紧张,但在实施的前提条件、资产负债表的扩张方式、期限与规模的确定、实施主体的地位等诸多方面存在差异。研究发现该政策在一定程度上缓解了欧债危机的持续恶化,降低了融资成本,提振了市场信心;但对实体经济的刺激作用还有待观察,也未能帮助欧元区银行获取无风险套利。此外,市场对欧洲央行承诺效应的怀疑将在很大程度上影响该政策的操作效果,欧元区货币超发将引发"以邻为壑"效应,同时将干扰欧元区的物价稳定。基于上述风险,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

经济复苏中的区县故事

备受关注的上半年首都经济以增长7.8％的红盘报收，在提振社会各界发展信心的同时，显示出全市经济主要领域正呈现复苏上升的趋势。但“报喜亦报忧”的数据同时告诉我们，当前经济回暖主要靠政府推动、政策作用，经济自主复苏和增长动力仍不足，外需不足及价格走低状况没有明显改善，微观经济效益与宏观经济转暖之间存在较大反差，经济回升的领域还不均衡，回升的基础尚不稳固，经济上升过程中还存在不稳定因素。     

社会保障支出、地区差异与积极老龄化

积极老龄化作为应对老龄化挑战的一种有效手段,能提高老年人的晚年生活质量,充分发挥老年人的“余热”,然而现有研究在一定程度上缺乏对积极老龄化前因变量的深入探索。文章构建了老年群体的社会保障支出影响社会参与意识形成及其转化为社会参与行为的理论框架,并用泰尔指数解析社会保障支出对积极老龄化的省际影响和区域影响,以捕捉积极老龄化的客观和主观条件。运用中国动态劳动力调查(CLDS)和2017年《中国统计年鉴》数据进行的实证研究表明:人均社会保障支出对积极老龄化的发展具有显著负向影响;社会保障支出水平对积极老龄化的发展产生显著正向影响;老年人的人力资本、工作经历和健康持久性在人均社会保障支出与积极老龄化之间存在显著调节效应;东中西三大经济带的社会保障支出差异对积极老龄化的影响不显著,但相邻省份的社会保障支出差异对积极老龄化具有显著负向影响。     

关注影响经济发展的非经济因素

近一年多来，受美国金融危机的冲击，世界经济发展受挫，许多发达国家的GDP出现负增长，国际金融市场和诸多金融机构陷入空前的困境，世界经济出现巨大的动荡与衰退。面对来势汹汹且未见底的世界性经济衰退，树立信心，采取积极的财政、金融政策，加快调整结构，启动内需，拓展我国国内市场，改变发展方式等经济手段是非常必要的。但国是复杂，绝非经济手段能一药见效的。要特别关注影响经济发展的非经济因素。许多忽视民生、民意的非经济因素，也会从根本上动摇信心，产生巨大的离心力，从而使我国克服经济危机、提振经济的计划事倍而功半。     

人民币离岸与在岸汇率差异及其波动研究

文章通过建立基本的GARCH模型和扩展的GARCH模型,探讨了市场基本面、全球金融市场环境以及相关政策等因素对人民币离岸和在岸市场的定价差异的影响。实证结果表明,人民币离岸和在岸市场定价差异是多方面因素共同作用的结果,两个市场流动性差异和参与者预期差异对于人民币离岸和在岸定价差异及其波动会产生显著影响,全球风险厌恶情绪上涨和美元升值会增大人民币在两个市场的定价差异及其波动。在政策方面,允许人民币资本跨境流出的措施会明显减少两个市场的定价差距,反之亦然。在岸市场人民币兑美元中间价形成机制改革显著地扩大了人民币两个市场的差异,加剧了其波动。     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.     

区域工业产业竞争力指标体系的构建及其评价方法研究

文章通过建立省级区域工业产业竞争力评价指标体系,设计竞争力模型,利用SPSS统计软件,对各省工业产业竞争力进行了评价测定。     

中俄经济技术合作面临新机遇

中俄在十年内把各自的GDP翻一番的目标,为发展中俄经济技术合作提供了机遇.仅仅依靠商品贸易的增长很难大幅度提升中俄经贸关系,需要全面开展经济技术合作,特别是加强在自然资源开发、跨国投资、军工技术和产品贸易领域的合作.     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.