The estimation of long term impacts of China's key priority forestry programs on rural household incomes

We use a large unique household panel dataset spanning 16 years to estimate the impacts of three Key Priority Forestry Programs (the KPFPs) in China on household incomes. The programs are the most significant of China's forest policies namely the Sloping Land Conversion Program (the SLCP), the Natural Forest Protection Program (the NFPP), and the Desertification Combating Program around Beijing and Tianjin (the DCBT). A fixed effect model with clustered standard errors is used to identify programs’ impacts based on variation in participation across households and time. In addition to estimating the total impacts of these programs, individually and in combination, we disaggregate the effects by income source, stage of policy implementation, and duration of participation. Overall, the impacts of the KPFPs on rural households’ income vary with time of enrollment and policy stage. We observe that the KPFPs in their initial stages of implementation, and for the early years of household participation, had negative, or at best neutral impacts on household incomes, in particular incomes from land. However, the later stages of the SLCP and the DCBT have tended to raise land-based incomes, and the NFPP has ceased to have a negative effect. This is likely to be in part the result of adjustments made by rural households over time in response to changes in the programs, as well as in market and environmental conditions.     

2008年退耕还林农户社会经济效益监测报告

文章以1998～2008年全国100个退耕还林县的1165户退耕农户监测数据为基础,反映了延长期退耕补助政策落实和金融危机对退耕农户外出务工等情况,深入分析了10年退耕还林政策对农户的微观影响。研究结果表明:退耕还林政策对农户生计产生深刻影响,陡坡耕种大幅度减少,退耕补助显著增加农户收入,巩固退耕还林成果、增加农户收入面临农业直补等新挑战,国家应明确退耕还林在国家生态战略中的定位,实现农户增收与生态保护的长期双赢。     

Afforestation and forestry land allocation in northern Vietnam: Analysing the gap between policy intentions and outcomes

Many tropical countries have recently implemented similar forest policies including large-scale afforestation programmes and the devolution of land-use rights. Their success in enhancing livelihoods and contributing to improved environmental services has been widely questioned. This paper discusses the impacts of state afforestation efforts and forestry land allocation on farmers’ land-use decisions in northern Vietnam. It links policy outcomes with factors located beyond the local level by analysing the decision-making process at the policy implementation stage. Our study suggests that the current national afforestation campaign has not successfully involved households in the forestry sector and that forestry land allocation to households has often disrupted existing land-use systems with little impact on afforestation. These discrepancies between policy intentions and outcomes are partly linked to the relative freedom provinces have to interpret and adapt policies during the implementation stage. In this respect, the political and economic context has played a significant role in providing particular financial and bureaucratic incentives to the former State Forest Enterprises and to civil servants. However, we argue that these actors have been allowed or even encouraged to take advantage of these incentives by national policy-makers thanks to: (1) the lack of clarity or the poor adequacy of the policies designed at the central level, and (2) the blurred character of prevailing national discourses promoting afforestation and community-based forest management. We recommend that national policy-makers allow flexibility in policy implementation but develop mechanisms of accountability and control between the provincial and the central authorities.     

新一轮退耕还林对农户收入影响的机理研究 ——基于赣南、鄂北农户调查的实证分析

研究目的：新一轮退耕还林补助资金即将到期之际,分析新一轮退耕还林对农户家庭收入的净效应并揭示其内在机制。研究方法：理论上阐述了新一轮退耕还林政策促进农户收入增长的作用机理,基于赣南、鄂北地区农户调查数据,利用倾向得分匹配法进行实证分析。研究结果：（1）无论是否包含退耕补贴,新一轮退耕还林政策对农户收入有正向影响;（2）退耕林种对农户收入的作用机理不同：种植经济林的农户增加了林果业收入和非农经营收入,减少了工资性收入;种植生态林的农户通过提高工资性收入,进而提高总收入水平。研究结论：新一轮退耕还林加快了农户生计转型的进程。政策实施5年后,农户形成与生态环境相适应且稳定的生产方式,为补偿政策的逐步退出创造有利条件,实现了新一轮退耕还林政策的造血功能。     

退耕还林工程对农业生产影响的经济分析——退耕农户生计外推分析

文章分析了退耕还林对黄河流域农业生产的影响。研究结果发现,在退耕地上产品产出和价格等高折现率情况下,参与工程农户家庭收入的净现值依旧为正值,这表明退耕还林工程对黄河流域农业生产产生积极的影响,也说明只要退耕农户权益得到保护,就不会出现大面积复耕反弹现象。     

Analysis of the potential socio-economic impact of establishing plantation forestry on rural communities in Sanga district,Niassa province,Mozambique

This study assesses the livelihoods of rural households in a proposed green field forestry area located in Sanga district of Niassa province, Mozambique. The livelihood analysis was used to analyze potential socio-economic impacts of introducing forest plantations to rural households located within the proposed afforestation area. The study made use of household interviews, key informant interviews and secondary data. The sustainable livelihoods framework was used in the research process to develop the household questionnaire and to identify livelihood strategies. Data were analyzed using 331 household questionnaires collected throughout the proposed afforestation area in various communities in the study area. Findings from the study indicated that there is minimal wealth gaps between rural households; but that the introduction of the forestry industry and the subsequent employment created thereof may result in larger wealth gaps between wage earning and non-wage earning households. The study further concludes by linking the potential socio-economic impacts with mitigation recommendations that could be harmonized with FSC Standard requirements for forestry companies interested in developing a forest industry in the study area.     

Comparison of land use change in payments for environmental services and National Biological Corridor Programs

Costa Rica established the National Biological Corridor Program in 2006. Under the National Biological Corridor Program, the long-running Payment for Environmental Services Program was newly prioritized into biological corridors throughout the country. The National Biological Corridor Program caused a nationwide spatial shift in placement of payments for environmental services throughout Costa Rica. We classified ASTER 15-m resolution imagery in a central Costa Rica corridor connecting the eastern and western protected areas networks to analyze the change in forests during the National Biological Corridor Program with its targeted payments for environmental services effort. We used object-based classification methods, and compared land cover changes over an initial four-year period of corridor policy enactment. We calculated the changes within PES properties and outside of PES regions, and we also calculated forest patch metrics during the same time period. Results indicate a decline in forest cover over the study period, along with an increase in urban and pasture land covers, with higher change and loss of forest centered inside of the biological corridor, near the construction area for the new San Carlos highway, and within eastern pasture areas. We also saw a higher percentage of forest loss inside of the biological corridor area as compared to areas outside of the biological corridor. Forest loss was drastically less within current and historic PES properties, as compared to the overall study region. Across the entire study region, patch metrics show a decrease in the number of patches and a slight decrease in average patch size. These results suggest that current and past designation of PES prevents forest loss within PES properties while the current designation of priority conservation status via the National Biological Corridor Program is not increasing connectivity and forest conservation. This is shown by increased land use change and a decrease in forest associated with biological corridor designation. These results are antithetical to the goals of the National Biological Corridor Program.     

林农生计资本对林地利用方式的影响研究

基于陕西省500户农户的调查数据,在可持续生计分析框架基础上,构建林农生计资本指标体系,运用多元Logit模型实证分析了林农生计资本对林地利用方式的影响。研究表明:第一,不同类型的林农生计资本结构差异会影响其对林地利用方式的选择;第二,在林农林地利用方式的选择上,各生计资本要素的影响存在显著差异,其中金融资本要素是改善林农生计的关键。在此基础上,从林农生计资本要素出发,提出了鼓励林地流转、发展规模经营、加快林业社会化服务体系建设等政策建议。     

Forest transitions in Chinese villages: Explaining community-level variation under the returning forest to farmland program

China’s Returning Farmland to Forest Program (RFFP) aimed to transform rural landscapes and livelihoods by compensating households for planting trees on retired farmland. The program has been attributed a key role in an apparent forest transition. Studies uncover great local variation in its impacts, but the mechanisms behind them have received little attention. We examine such heterogeneity in 12 communities in northwest Yunnan, assessing the hypothesis that the RFFP catalyzed a state-led forest transition by evaluating the contributions of RFFP implementation and other processes to land cover change. Our dataset combines socioeconomic data from household surveys, focus groups, and intensive interviews with remote sensing data for a linked, cross-scale analysis. Results show no significant relationship between RFFP implementation and community-level vegetation cover change. Between 2000 and 2010, high-elevation communities had larger vegetation gains, while from 2010 to 2014, low-elevation communities had larger gains. Regression analyses and interview data show off-farm labor, tree crop planting, and changing energy sources influenced the rate of community-level vegetation change. This pattern, combining tree crop cultivation with labor outflows, may represent a distinct “policy plantation” pathway of forest gain. Meanwhile, new, high-elevation cash crops may be constraining forest expansion. This analysis suggests limited additionality for the RFFP in this region and highlights how heterogeneous, intersecting land use processes bring uneven forest transitions.     

Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation: evidence from Uganda

This paper estimates a structural econometric model of household decisions regarding income strategies, participation in programs and organisations, crop choices, land management, and labour use, and their implications for agricultural production and soil erosion; based upon a survey of over 450 households and their farm plots in Uganda. Many factors have context-specific impacts and involve trade-offs between increasing production and reducing land degradation. Government agricultural extension and training programs contribute to higher value of crop production in the lowlands, but to soil erosion in the highlands. By contrast, non-governmental organization (NGO) programs focusing on agriculture and environment help to reduce erosion, but have less favourable impacts on production in the lowlands. Education increases household incomes, but also reduces crop production in the lowlands. Poverty has mixed impacts on agricultural production, depending on the nature of poverty: smaller farms obtain higher crop production per hectare, while households with fewer livestock have lower crop production. Population pressure contributes to agricultural intensification, but also to erosion in the densely populated highlands. Several household income strategies contribute to increased value of crop production, without significant impacts on soil erosion. We find little evidence of impact of access to markets, roads and credit, land tenure or title on agricultural intensification and crop production and land degradation. In general, the results imply that the strategies to increase agricultural production and reduce land degradation must be location-specific, and that there are few 'win-win' opportunities to simultaneously increase production and reduce land degradation.     

退耕还林工程对西部农户收入的影响:对西安周至县南部山区乡镇农户的实证分析

研究目的:分析研究退耕还林工程对西部山区农户收入的影响和作用。研究方法:利用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所2008年4月在周至南部山区的农户生计调查数据,建立统计回归模型,分别采用多元线性和分位数回归分析方法,定量分析退耕还林工程对西部山区农户收入的影响。研究结果:参与退耕还林对农户家庭纯收入有着显著的正向影响,尤其是对于中低收入农户,但参与退耕通过户耕地面积和农业劳动时间变化对中低水平的农户收入也仍有一定的负面作用。研究结论:为巩固退耕工程成果,当地政府应提供信息,提高农户的社会资本,积极发展外出务工等非农生产活动。     

Reducing or creating poverty? Analyzing livelihood impacts of forest carbon projects with evidence from India

Forest carbon projects, in addition to climate mitigation and conservation benefits, are expected to improve local livelihoods and contribute to poverty alleviation across developing countries. Despite substantial investments over last decade, there is limited empirical evidence on the livelihood impacts of these projects especially across different socioeconomic categories.This paper aims to contribute to this knowledge gap through an analysis of the livelihood impacts across small, medium and large categories of participating farmers in a forest carbon project from the state of Haryana in India. Data from 107 households have been analysed to study the impacts in terms of foregone crop, fodder and fuel wood benefits. The analysis suggests that the project has adversely affected the livelihoods of all three categories of farmers. However, small and marginal farmers are the most distressed due to their low incomes, asset base and risk-bearing capacities.It raises critical project design issues such as binding land use, delayed accrual of benefits, static opportunity costs and displacement of existing economic activities, which have serious livelihood and equity implications. Unless these issues are addressed and strong safety nets are provided, forest carbon projects might create more poverty than wellbeing for marginal communities.     

国有森工林区居民的可持续生计——山上住户与山下住户的比较

根据DFID可持续生计分析框架,利用黑龙江省15个森工林业局718个样本数据,对国有森工林区山上住户和山下住户的可持续生计进行了比较研究。研究表明,在生计资本方面,山上住户的优势主要体现在自然资本上;而山下住户的优势则主要体现在金融资本上,除此之外双方的差异很小。在生计策略方面,山上住户和山下住户的差异主要来自二者对林地资源的利用上。在生计后果(贫困及对环境的影响)上,山上住户和山下住户并无显著差异。得到的政策含义是撤并一部分山上林场(所)并将山上住户转移到山下来是可行的。     

农户参与市场化生态补偿意愿及影响因素分析

[目的]与参与政府主导的生态补偿项目不同,农户参与市场化生态补偿有更大的自主性,因此在"建立市场化、多元化生态补偿"背景下,加强农户参与市场化生态补偿意愿的研究具有重要意义。探究农户参与市场化生态补偿的意愿,并识别出影响因素,寻求提高农户市场化生态补偿参与意愿的发力点。[方法]文章基于贵州省仁怀市208户农户问卷调查数据,运用二元Logistic回归从农户个体特征、家庭特征、农业经营特征和农户行为态度四个方面研究农户参与市场化生态补偿意愿及其影响因素。[结果]农户参与市场化生态补偿意愿整体较高,81.25%的农户表示愿意参与市场化生态补偿。家庭务农人数越多、家中有村干部、平地数量越多、坡地数量越少、对坡耕地经济收益越不满意、认为水质下降对作物产量影响越严重、越认同参与生态补偿可获得荣誉感的农户,越愿意参与市场化生态补偿。[结论]增强农户参与市场化生态补偿意愿要从以下三个方面发力:保障和提高农户参与市场化生态补偿后的经济收益;降低农户对土地的依赖程度;增强农户参与市场化生态补偿的荣誉感和参与感。     

Rural household incomes and land grabbing in Cambodia

This paper empirically quantifies environmentally augmented rural household incomes in Cambodia and analyzes how economic land concessions (ELCs) affect such incomes. Data is derived from a structured survey of 600 randomly selected households in 15 villages in three study sites in Cambodia, where local livelihoods are highly reliant on access to land and natural resources, supported by qualitative data from focus group discussions. Gini coefficient decomposition, multiple regression models, and propensity score matching (PSM) models were employed to analyze the composition of income portfolios, determinants of major income sources, and the impacts of land grabbing on incomes. Results documented high reliance on environmental income (32–35% of total household income) and farm income (51–53%) across income quartiles; demonstrated the variation in product composition across quartiles and the contribution of each major product to income inequality; and identified the main household characteristics influencing absolute and relative incomes. ELCs were found to consistently have negative impacts on household total income, environmental income, size of available cultivable land and livestock holdings, and increasing the distance to forests. The total household annual income subjects to ELCs were estimated to decrease by 15–19%. While providing some employment opportunities, we find no evidence of positive income effects of ELCs on households in the areas where ELCs are located.     

Buffer stock savings by portfolio adjustment: evidence from rural India

The empirical literature on household savings tends to treat savings simply as the residual of income minus consumption. This article takes a unique approach to reconstruct the cash and asset balances using detailed household transaction data on farm households in rural India and generates monthly and seasonal ICRISAT panel data for the period 1976–1983. We have found that households—irrespective of their landholding status—cope with temporary shocks quite well by using crop inventory, currency, and capital assets, rather than livestock, as buffer assets. The importance of portfolio adjustments in smoothing consumption is also confirmed by the use of a system of equations in which both portfolio and production decisions are made endogenous. It is concluded that not only the level but also the diversification of household assets are important for buffering consumption. As an extension, we have explored the monthly ICRISAT panel data for the period 2009–2012 in the same villages and have found a similar pattern in household portfolio responses to income shocks.     

The leakage and livelihood impacts of PES contracts: A targeting experiment in Malawi

Most evaluations of payments for environmental services programs focus on immediate environmental impacts, and do not measure the effects on socioeconomic outcomes or on other land use activities (leakage). Efficient allocation of land use contracts, through auctions for example, may help mitigate concerns about adverse livelihood or leakage effects. This study reports on a field experiment that varied the allocation of afforestation contracts to smallholder farmers in Malawi. Households were randomly assigned to participate in an auction or in a lottery for the contracts, which provided three years of payment based on tree survival outcomes. Households that did not receive a contract as a result of the lottery form a pure comparison group. The results show evidence for within-farm leakage for households that received a contract at random, in the form of additional land clearing. Randomly contracted households are also more likely to report household labor shortages. These effects are mitigated to some degree when contracts are assigned through an auction. Together, the results point to leakage and livelihood impacts from payments for environmental services that are often overlooked in standard evaluations, but which may be reduced through improvements in contract targeting.     

Livelihood roles of cattle and prospects for alternative land uses at the wildlife/livestock interface in South Africa

The emergence of wildlife ranching as an alternative land use option to agriculture, in Transfrontier Conservation Areas (TFCAs), has cast renewed interest on the role of cattle farming in rural livelihoods in areas close to wildlife parks. This study analysed the contribution of cattle to livelihoods and relationships between cattle and potential wildlife land uses in rural areas near Kruger National Park. Data were collected through household surveys, key informant interviews and community workshops. About 11% of households studied owned cattle, and cattle income constituted 29% of total household income. Benefits from cattle were also derived by households without cattle. About 71% of households had at least three sources of income, reflecting diversity of livelihoods. Wildlife related land uses were perceived by some households as threatening cattle production, whilst others viewed them as opportunities for alternative livelihoods. We conclude that cattle production has important livelihood roles, but is not sufficient as a driver of economic development in these areas. Incentives to encourage diversification of livelihoods at the wildlife/livestock interface, with possibilities for rural communities to explore wildlife based land uses should be put in place. In addition, land use policy and planning in such areas should focus on creating institutional mechanisms through which programmes integrating conservation and rural development goals can benefit rural communities.     

家庭禀赋对山区农户林业相关生计策略的影响研究

基于浙江省山区315户农户的调查数据,描述了山区农户的生计策略、不同类型农户的家庭禀赋、收入水平及来源,运用mlogit模型就家庭禀赋对山区农户林业相关生计策略的影响进行实证分析。结果表明:家庭禀赋对山区农户林业相关生计策略具有显著影响;在人力资本指标中,劳动力人数、劳动力平均健康程度对农户选择林业专业化型、林业补充型、生计多样化型生计策略具有一定的正向影响;劳动力平均受教育程度对选择林业补充型生计策略有显著的正向影响;在自然资本指标中,林地面积对农户选择林业专业化型生计策略具有正向影响;耕地面积则对于林业补充型生计策略的选择具有正向影响;在社会资本指标中,家族能人数量对于农户选择林业专业化型、林业补充型、生计多样化型具有显著的正向影响。因此,提出促进非农就业,鼓励自主创业;充分利用自然资本;加强山区农户的人力资本建设等建议。     

农户林地未流转行为影响因素分析

主要从实证角度论证了农户未流转行为的三方面关系。其中,运用Logistic回归模型所得出的结果显示林地经营规模影响农户对林地的需求,但不影响农户对林地的供给,且与农户的未流入行为为非线性关系;资金状况显著影响农户的未流入行为,而家庭非农收入比重并不显著影响农户的未流出行为;林业服务状况对未流入和未流出行为有不同程度的作用。因此,为促进林地的流转应主要解决好资金和服务体系建设两大问题。