Trade, technology transfer and national efficiency in developing countries

This paper simultaneously explores the determinants of the developing countries’ production frontier and these countries’ ‘efficiency’ in using the available resources and technology. In doing so it allows for the transfer of (industrial country) technology in determining the frontier and for international trade's influence on absorptive capacity and national efficiency levels. Stochastic frontier analysis is used to model the production frontier for 57 developing countries for the period 1970-1998, to measure cross-country and temporal differences in efficiency levels and to explain the differences in efficiency levels. The results indicate significant differences in efficiency levels across countries and regions and movement over time, and an important influence of trade and trade policy in raising output both through technology improvements embodied in imported capital goods and by inducing efficiency improvements.     

Skill Intensity in Foreign Trade and Economic Growth

This paper explores the link between trade structure, trade specialization and per capita income growth. It is argued that industrial upgrading in export specialization patterns has a positive long-run growth effect, while the effect of structural change in industrial import patterns is in principle ambiguous. A standard empirical growth model is augmented by various measures of structural change. The hypothesis that not trade per se matters, but that various types of trading activities impact differently on economic growth is tested on a sample of 45 countries (OECD members and selected Asian and Latin American countries) over the period 1981–1997. The data set comprises exports and imports for 35 manufacturing industries at the 3-digit level of the ISIC classification which are grouped according to skill intensity. The results of the dynamic panel estimation point towards a positive long-run growth effect arising from trade specialization in medium-high-skill-intensive industries. Further, important distinctions between the skill intensity of export and import patterns and their respective influence on economic development, as well as between the group of developing countries and OECD members are observed in this relationship.JEL classification: C23, F43, O19, O41, O57The author is grateful to Michael Landesmann and Robert Stehrer (wiiw), Neil Foster and Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (Department of Economics, University of Vienna), Michael Peneder (Austrian Institute of Economic Research) and two referees for valuable comments. This research is based on Jubiläumsfondsprojekt Nr. 8954, financial support by Oesterreichische Nationalbank is gratefully acknowledged.     

对外贸易对经济增长的实证分析——基于上海数据的分析与检验

对外贸易对经济增长的影响是目前经济学界的一个热点问题。本文选择典型对外贸易区——上海进行分析,利用1985-2004年上海市进出口和GDP的年度经济数据,借助协整检验、误差修正模型等方法,从不同的角度研究了对外贸易与经济增长之间的动态关系,定量地刻画了对外贸易在经济增长中的作用大小。实证结果表明:进出口对经济增长的贡献滞后一年才显著;短期内,出口比进口对经济增长的贡献大,但在长期,进口比出口对经济增长的贡献要大的多。     

A natural experiment for identifying the impact of ‘natural’ trade barriers on exports

The paper investigates the relative importance of trade policy and ‘natural’ sources of export taxation in Malawi, a landlocked African economy. These sources of export taxation are in turn used to explore how export supply would respond to trade liberalisation as opposed to measures which lower other international trade costs. The findings indicate that trade policy barriers are now only a limited source of ‘true’ export taxation and that trade policy reform needs to be complemented with reforms to reduce international trade, including transport, costs.     

The impacts of innovations and standards on trade of measurement and testing products: empirical results of Switzerland’s bilateral trade flows with Germany, France and the UK

Nowadays, the impact of the measurement and testing infrastructure on economic performance and trade is theoretically and even politically widely accepted. However, there are no empirical studies on this issue. The purpose of this paper is to elucidate the impact of innovative capacity and technical standards as one important part of the measurement and testing infrastructure on international trade flows and competitiveness. In order to focus on the direct causality between innovative technology and measurement and testing standards and the respective market, the empirical analysis concentrates on the trade of measurement and testing products of a country with a top position in measurement and testing technology. In its empirical analysis of Switzerland’s trade flows with Germany, France and the UK, the paper follows the approach of the pioneering paper of Swann et al. (Economic Journal 106 (1996) 1297), who integrated for the first time technical standards as a technology indicator in the estimation of UK trade performance. The trade flows in measurement and testing products from 1980 until 1995 are explained by both an indicator for innovative capacity and for the degree of standardisation. The first indicator is based on the patent applications at the European patent office. The latter uses the stocks of technical standards in the countries differentiated by their regional scope. Four different trade equations are analysed, besides an export and an import function, the trade balance and the intra-industry trade. The results clearly show that both Switzerland’s innovative capacity and its stocks of standards are able to explain its export performance in the three countries. Secondly, especially the stocks of international standards in Switzerland have a positive impact on imports into Switzerland from the three countries, confirming their positive role for fostering trade in general. Thirdly, Switzerland’s export surplus concerning the three trade partners is positively affected by the stocks of international standards in Switzerland, which seem to be an important factor for international competitiveness. Finally, the results of the intra-industry model underline the common view of the general trade-fostering effect of even national standards in the case of the trade with the three countries.     

Tariff liberalization and trade specialization: Lessons from India

This paper analyzes the effects of policy reform on the structure of India’s trade in manufactures, from 1990 to 2006. It computes comparative advantage indicators on the basis of disaggregated trade flow data and assesses the effects of trade liberalization on the evolution of India’s pattern of trade specialization. Industries where import tariffs have been reduced the most have experienced the highest increase in specialization. Moreover, trade liberalization has helped India improve its comparative advantage in industries with medium- to high-technology content, as well as in some of the industries enjoying the most robust growth in global demand. Liberalization policies have been instrumental in enhancing the international competitiveness of industries.     

The Role of Natural Resources in Economic Development

Economists now recognize that, along with physical and human capital, environmental resources should be viewed as important economic assets, which can be called natural capital. Three recent debates have emerged over the role of natural capital in economic development. First, as many ecological services are unique, does the environment have an “essential” role in sustaining human welfare, and if so, are special “compensation rules” required to ensure that future welfare is not worsened by natural capital depletion today? Second, the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis has fostered empirical estimations of an “inverted U” shaped relationship between a variety of indicators of environmental pollution or resource depletion and the level of per capita income. Does the existence of such EKC relationships suggest that environmental degradation will eventually decline with growth? Finally, recent economic theories and empirical evidence have questioned whether lower income economies that are endowed with abundant natural resources develop more rapidly than economies that are relatively resource poor. Is it possible that resource abundant economies are not reinvesting the rents generated from natural resource exploitation into productive assets, or that resource booms actually divert economic resources from more productive and innovative sectors?     

International trade, exhaustible-resource abundance and economic growth

Countries with oil and other natural resources have grown less rapidly than those countries without. This phenomenon is known as the “natural resource curse”. We develop an infinite-horizon, two-country model of trade in which countries are identical, except that one country is endowed with deposits of an exhaustible resource and the other is not. Within the context of the model, we show that this phenomenon can be explained in part by an inelastic demand for the exhaustible resource that increases growth in trade revenues and induces the resource-abundant country to invest relatively less than the country lacking in exhaustible resources. These results are derived analytically and illustrated by an empirical analysis based on plausible parameters obtained from data.     

Is foreign trade important for regional growth? Empirical evidence from Portugal

The aim of this study is to investigate whether openness, export shares or trade balances affect regional growth in Portugal. Human capital is also considered as a conditional factor to growth, expressed by the rate of success in high school education. Thus, we analyse whether the combination of international trade and human capital is relevant to explain regional growth in Portugal and how it affects the convergence process between regions. In the empirical analysis, interaction terms are introduced to explore the existence of different performances between regions of the Littoral and the Interior. As an alternative to the traditional approach that considers the population growth rate, we include the share of sectoral employment aiming to capture labour specialisation in the main sectors of economic activity and measure its impact on regional growth.The empirical analysis estimates the conditional convergence model of the Barro's type, applied to the Portuguese NUTS3 regions for the period 1996-2005. The GMM estimation approach applied to regional panel data reveals that factors associated with external trade, human capital and sectoral labour share (especially of the industrial sector) are relevant to explain regional growth and convergence in Portugal.     

出口退税政策调整对中国出口影响的实证分析

2007年7月1日,中国大规模下调了出口退税率。本文运用倍差法(difference in difference),对出口退税率降低引起的出口变动进行了实证分析。结果表明:出口退税率下调对易引起贸易摩擦的商品出口增长率负影响显著,对高耗能、高污染、资源型产品的出口增长率负影响不显著。对政策动态影响和对多次政策调整的分析进一步验证了这一结果。本文据此认为该项政策部分而非全部达到了预想的效果。     

中国出口的专业化之路及其增长效应

本文利用半参数广义可加模型和按行业分类的省际面板数据,分析了我国整体专业化曲线的动态变化,以及该种变化对经济增长的影响。结果表明,我国出口走的实际上是一条非线性的、超越所处发展阶段的渐进专业化道路;在人均收入达到一定水平后,还可能出现加速专业化的趋势;同时,这样的道路已经对我国的经济增长产生了显著的不利影响,并将长期存在。而且,结论在控制了可能的内生性问题后仍然稳健。因此,未来扭转我国出口发展中这种内在的专业化发展惯性,无疑是出口结构调整需要重点关注的方向。     

The export price index with the effect of variety and an empirical analysis

The standard international trade models predict that economic growth induces decreasing export prices. Korea has recorded sustainable economic and export growth, and its export prices have been deteriorating over the last decades. Unlike the standard assumption of one good per country, the new theoretical approach by Krugman [Krugman, P. (1980) ‘Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and Pattern of Trade’. American Economic Review 70, 950–959, Krugman, P. (1989) ‘Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates’. European Economic Review, 33, 1055–1085.], and Helpman and Krugman [Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. (1985), Market structure and foreign trade: increasing returns, imperfect competition, and international economy, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.] takes into account varieties of goods produced in each country. And many studies suggest that traditional estimates without variety effect have been rather under-stated. Therefore this paper develops a proper modeling for quantifying the impact of export variety on an exact export price index. Throughout the period (1984–2000), the conventional export price index without variety effect leads to under-state Korea's export price by 89.3%. This paper shows that the fall in Korean export prices has been offset by the effect of export variety. This paper emphasizes the effect of export variety on international trade.     

TECHNOLOGY SPECIALIZATION AND THE MAGNITUDE AND QUALITY OF EXPORTS

Abstract

This paper examines how technology specialization, measured by citation-weighed patents, affects trade flows. The paper analyzes the relationship between (i) technology specialization and export specialization across regions and (ii) the technology specialization of origin and destination and the quality of export flows. We find that the export specialization of regions corresponds to their technology specialization. Regions with higher technology specialization export products of higher quality, as indicated by higher prices. Moreover, export flows to destination countries with a high technology specialization consist of products of higher quality in the specific technology. The results are consistent with knowledge and technology being important for export performance and with regions with higher specialization in a technology being better equipped to produce high-quality products. They are also consistent with destinations of higher technology specialization, having a more pronounced demand for products of higher quality in the same technology.     

贸易增速下降之"谜"——基于全球价值链分工视角的解释

当前,全球贸易增速出现了大幅下降,这难以简单地从危机冲击及其后续影响层面进行解读.实际上,贸易的基础是分工,看待当前全球贸易失速现象理应深入到国际分工层面.鉴于此,文章构建理论模型以刻画上述现象及其成因,研究发现:(1)全球价值链分工演进的阶段性变化对贸易增速具有深刻影响,当分工深化到一定程度后,贸易规模扩大的"基数效应"和分工深化的"边际效应"会导致贸易增速下降;(2)对单个国家来说,价值链攀升也会影响贸易增速.进一步地,利用跨国面板数据的计量分析表明:(1)在有效控制其他影响因素的条件下,全球价值链分工深化的程度对贸易增速呈倒"U"形的非线性影响;(2)价值链攀升对单个经济体的贸易增速具有显著的负面影响.由此可知,在当前全球经济处于深度调整的特殊时期,价值链分工深化趋势减缓乃至"停滞",是导致当前全球贸易失速的根本原因之一;而中国的外贸失速除了受到上述因素影响外,还与自身的价值链升级有关.因此,面临全球贸易增速下降的压力,中国外贸发展亟待转型升级,充分发挥"稳定"全球贸易增长的应有作用.     

The better you are the stronger it makes you: Evidence on the asymmetric impact of liberalization

This paper shows how trade liberalization can have an asymmetric effect on heterogeneous firms. It develops a neo-Schumpeterian growth model predicting that the impact of liberalization on economic performance is positive “on average”, but more advanced firms benefit more. These predictions are tested using Mexican plant-level data confirming that, under NAFTA, the liberalization spurred productivity growth on average. However, the empirical analysis goes beyond estimating the average effect of liberalization and shows that more advanced firms benefited disproportionately more from the liberalization. Focusing on the mechanisms explaining these results, the paper shows that the results are not just driven by an increase in input usage and investments, but rather by innovative and managerial efforts as they are significantly stronger in those sectors where the scope for innovative activities is larger.     

Resource Curse: New Evidence on the Role of Institutions

This paper attempts to provide a probable answer to a longstanding resource curse puzzle; i.e., why resource-rich nations grow at a slower rate compared with less fortunate ones. Using an innovative threshold estimation technique, the empirical results reveal that there is a threshold effect in the natural resources–economic growth relationship. We find that the impact of natural resources is meaningful to economic growth only after a certain threshold point of institutional quality has been attained. The results also shed light on the fact that the nations that have low institutional quality depend heavily on natural resources while countries with high quality institutions are relatively less dependent on natural resources to generate growth.     

中国农产品对外贸易对农业经济增长的贡献--基于1981-2003年数据的实证分析

改革开放以来中国农业经济和农产品对外贸易增长迅速。对二者的相关数据采用出口扩展型总量生产函数模型进行实证分析,结论表明,1982-2003年间中国农产品对外贸易总体对农业经济增长的贡献份额平均为8.19%。虽然平均计算的贡献份额较低,但加入WTO后的最近几年,农产品外贸对农业经济增长的贡献越来越大。由上述结论可解读出若干政策含义。     

东北亚国家出口多样化与经济增长的关系——基于动态面板数据的系统GMM估计

利用1996—2010年东北亚国家的贸易数据,验证了出口多样化与人均GDP之间的关系,并采用系统广义矩方法建立动态面板数据模型,估计了出口多样化对经济增长的贡献。结果表明:就东北亚单个国家而言,出口多样化与人均GDP之间呈U型变动关系,但就东北亚整体而言,这种U型关系并不明显;从东北亚国家的经验来看,出口多样化对经济增长具有积极作用;目前我国出口正处于从多样化向集中化转变的上升阶段,尚未达到U型曲线的拐点。     

转变经济增长方式与我国劳动密集型产品出口的发展

作者说，在目前转变经济增长方式的讨论中，一种比较流行的观点认为，转变经济增长方式就是变劳动密集型经济为资本密集型和技术密集型经济。以此为依据，外贸领域内抑制和否定劳动密集型产品出口的观点日渐突出。作者对此持不同看法，认为转变经济增长方式不能否定劳动密集型经济，在今后较长的一段时间内劳动密集型产品的出口仍需大力发展。     

Growth, Trade, and Government Policies of a Small Open Economy

Utilizing a linear endogenous growth model, the paper provides an economic rationale for two empirical findings: the positive correlation between export growth and income growth, and the association of rapid structural changes with fast income growth. In the benchmark case, the small open economy converges eventually to a balanced growth path along which exports and total output grow at the same constant rate as consumption. Government policies affect the pattern of specialization and trade since they change the autarky or foreign relative price. Only taxation on the capital goods sector can affect asymptotic growth rates.