我国主板上市公司退市政策的思考

在我国沪深两市中存在上百只ST或*ST的股票,其中一些上市公司通过自身努力,加强管理、提高效益,从而脱星摘帽.但很多公司利用原来退市政策的漏洞,长期挂在ST板块,更有一些长期停牌,成为“僵尸”公司,市场上更是利用这些垃圾公司壳资源进行投机式的爆炒.针对这种情况沪深两市出台了退市新规.本文对比了新旧政策的不同,指出了主板上市公司退市新规的进步、不足及需改进之处.     

企业证券投资风险控制研究

随着1999年中国证监会"关于法人配售股票有关问题的通知"的颁布,国有企业、国有资产控股企业、上市公司所开立的股票账户,可用于配售股票,也可用于投资二级市场的股票,为相关企业在二级市场上进行证券投资开设了窗口,也为企业财力增长提供了新的选择。但证券投资在获取收益的同时,也存在着必然的风险,本文在分析企业证券投资风险类型的基础上,综合性地提出风险控制方法。     

~*ST二重主动退市动因探析

~*ST二重不仅是退市新规实施以来首家主动退市的上市公司,更是我国A股市场上首只采用股东大会方式主动退市的ST股票。ST二重的退市方式、退市过程等对未来的ST股票的主动退市具有借鉴意义,其退市动因对于投资者未来类似的投资决策也有参考价值,案例中体现的问题也对我国A股主板市场的制度建设有一定参考价值。此外,结合我国具体国情,对~*ST二重的主动退市进行案例研究,也有丰富我国的主动退市理论的意义。     

并购海龙：“一石多鸟”

2006年6月，辽宁方大“蛇吞象”并购困境国有上市公司★ST海龙，掀开了“方大系”在A股市场纵横捭阖的帷幕，如今，方大炭素（前身为ST海龙）已成长为规模中国第一、世界第三的炭素企业，辽宁方大持有方大炭素的股票市值已过百亿，回报超过20倍，创造了一个“点石成金”的神话。而当年“方大系”并购★ST海龙时一系列精妙的运作，至今仍然余味无穷。     

上市公司盈余管理的新方式及防范措施探讨

随着新会计准则体系的实施,我国上市公司的盈余管理具备了多变性的特征,出现了一些新的方式和方法,为广大投资者准确辨别真假会计信息、采取正确的投资决策带来了困难,这显然会影响我国资本市场的健康发展.因此,本文对新会计准则下盈余管理动机与原因进行了分析,然后探讨了上市公司盈余管理的新方式,最后提出了防范措施.一、盈余管理的动机与原因(一)资本市场动因.根据我国证监会的规定,上市公司连续三年亏损,上市公司的股票暂停上市,暂停上市后第一个半年度内公司仍未扭亏,终止上市.“壳资源”对上市公司来说非常稀缺,上市公司为了确保“壳资源”不丢失,在经营业绩扭转无望的情况下,只能依赖盈余管理来操纵经营业绩,造成过度使用盈余管理情况的发生.     

上市公司“壳”资源的期权定价分析

“壳”资源价值一直是我国上市公司中一块因制度性壁垒而特有的企业价值 ,证券市场中的许多收购、兼并案例看中的都是公司的“壳”资源 ,而传统的企业定价理论无法对“壳”资源的价值作合理的解释。现采用期权理论及“Black -Scholes”模型解释上市公司的“壳”资源价值     

浅议我国创业板上市公司IPO盈余管理

随着创业板市场的壮大,创业板市场IPO盈余管理问题日益引起广大学者的关注。创业板上市公司IPO过程中,为了使投资者高估企业盈利能力,提高股票发行价格,往往会进行盈余管理。然而严重的盈余管理不利于企业的健康可持续发展。本文旨在分析创业板上市公司在IPO过程中的盈余管理现状,在此基础上,为有效控制创业板上市公司盈余管理提供政策建议。     

股权分置条件下上市公司协议转让中的壳收购分析

以2001年、2002年和2003年三年间发生控制权转让的上市公司为样本,研究股权分置条件下的上市公司控制权协议转让中壳收购问题。研究表明:上市公司收购案例中存在大量的壳收购现象,壳收购的比例高达40%以上,ST类是壳收购的主要对象。壳收购的本质不是公司收购,是变相购买上市融资权,是通过市场收购方式跨越上市行政约束的篱笆。壳收购的大量存在反映了法人股协议转让的制度缺陷和上市规则问题,在一定程度上影响了资本市场选优功能和运作效率。随着上市规则的完善、股改的深入和交易规则透明度的增加,壳收购比例将降低。     

ST股票投资分析——ST股票投资收益及影响投资收益的因素分析

通过对中国A股市场中被特别处理(即被冠以ST)的上市公司的股价、个股信息等历史数据进行统计分析,考虑机会成本,得出各只ST股票的投资收益终值,并从影响投资收益的四个因素,即地区、行业、财务指标、股本结构和投资时机着手,运用统计学和计量经济学模型,发现重组的ST股票最具有投资价值;并且北京、天津、河北、山东、山西、内蒙古、河南、陕西、新疆、西藏、青海、宁夏和海南省的,从事采掘业、石化塑胶行业、房地产业、建筑业、纺织服装业、食品饮料制造业和批发零售业,财务指标的恶化程度中等,国家股比例较高的ST股票,有最高的重组可能性。     

我国上市公司"壳"资源利用绩效的实证研究

本文采用一种特殊的方法对近几年沪、深两地上市公司的"壳"资源利用绩效进行实证研究.检验结果表明,从总体上看短期内上市公司"壳"资源利用可以使得"壳"公司经营业绩提高,但在长期内"壳"资源利用绩效是令人失望的,不同的"壳"资源利用方式对企业业绩的促进作用也存在一定的差异.     

Buy,Lie, or Die: An Investigation of Chinese ST Firms’ Voluntary Interim Audit Motive and Auditor Independence

In the Chinese stock market, special treatment (ST) firms are the firms listed as facing imminent danger of delisting, unless they return to profitability after reporting two consecutive annual losses. Some ST firms voluntarily pay substantial fees to their external auditors to conduct interim audits, which are not required by regulations. In this study, we investigate and find that ST firms that pay for voluntary interim audits report greater discretionary accrued earnings, higher non-operating earnings, and higher returns on assets in ensuing annual reports. As a result, these firms are more likely to return to profitability and reduce their delisting risk. Our results, which contribute to the current debate on auditor independence, appear to be consistent with the possibility that ST firms “buy” external auditors’ cooperation to manipulate earnings when faced with the threat of delisting.     

LIQUIDATION OF A LARGE BLOCK OF STOCK WITH REGIME SWITCHING

In the literature, stock‐selling rules are mainly concerned with liquidation of the security within a short period of time. In practice, this is feasible only when a relatively smaller number of shares of a stock is involved. Selling a large position in a market place normally depresses the market if sold in a short period of time, which would result in poor filling prices. Comparing to the existing results in the literature, this work has two distinct features. First, the underlying stock price is modeled using a geometric Brownian motion formulation with regime switching in which the jump rate depends on the selling intensity. A larger selling intensity makes the regime more likely to change from a higher return mode to a lower one or forces the return mode to stay in the lower one longer. Secondly, we consider the liquidation strategy for selling a large block of stock by selling much smaller number of shares over a longer period of time. By using a fluid model, in which the number of shares is treated as fluid (continuous), we treat the selling rule problem where the corresponding liquidation is dictated by the rate of selling over time. Our objective is to maximize the expected overall return. Thus it may be formulated as a stochastic control problem with state constraints. Method viscosity solution is used to characterize the dynamics governing the optimal reward function and the associated boundary conditions. Numerical examples are reported to illustrate the results.     

机构投资者的羊群行为能降低投资风险吗?——来自中国上市公司的证据

机构投资者的羊群行为对投资风险影响的实证分析结果表明: 机构投资者存在羊群行为,卖出羊群行为的程度大于买入羊群行为的程度,而且卖出羊群行为加大了投资风险、降低了投资回报率; 买入羊群行为减少了投资风险、提高了投资回报率。因此,加大监管机构投资者卖出羊群行为有利于降低投资风险,并促进证券市场稳定发展。     

Returns on ADRs and arbitrage in emerging markets

In this paper we compare the distributions of ADR returns and the returns of the locally traded shares between Chile and Argentina. This comparison is interesting because both countries are emerging economies with a similar free market orientation and the trading hours in both countries virtually coincide with the trading hours in New York. Argentina and Chile differ, however, in two important aspects: During our sample period: (1) The Argentinean market was completely under a fixed-exchange rate system, while Chile maintained a flexible exchange rate regime; and (2) Argentina did not impose any restrictions on foreign investments, while Chile did. We find that the return distributions of the Chilean ADRs are significantly different from the distributions of the returns on the respective underlying Chilean shares. While the mean returns are the same, the return's S.D. are significantly different. In contrast, the hypothesis that the distributions of the returns on the Argentinean ADRs and the returns on their respective underlying shares are the same cannot be rejected. We then use a threshold model to estimate the transaction costs of trading the ADRs and the locally traded shares. We find that the transaction costs that must be added to the returns spread before arbitrage is possible were between 100 and 200 basis points for Chilean ADRs. It was between 66 and 165 basis points for the Argentinean ADRs. The daily return spread reversion caused by arbitrage activities was estimated to be approximately 30% for Chilean ADRs and 40% for Argentinean ADRs. Finally, we cannot reject the hypothesis that low liquidity was a major factor in the cost difference between the two countries.     

中国股票市场一月效应的实证研究

一月效应是从统计学角度分析股市走势的一种惯常现象,指一月份的回报率往往是"正数",而且会比其他月份为高;相反,十二月的股市回报率很多时候会呈现负值。在传统股市经验里,每逢踏入新一年的一月,股市总是涨的多,跌的少。中国市场是否存在一月效应,投资者能否利用一月效应来获得期望的收益,这些都是研究人员关注的课题。以1997—2007年沪深两市A股指数的日收益率为研究样本,对中国股市是否存在显著的一月效应进行实证研究,结论表明:相对于其他月份而言,中国股市不存在显著的一月效应。     

Concentration Measurement Under Cross-ownership: The Case of the Spanish Electricity Sector

When major investors own shares in several firms in the same industry, the traditional approach to concentration measurement by the Hirschman–Herfindahl Index (HHI) fails to accurately reflect the level of competition in the market. To address this problem we derive a generalized HHI formula (GHHI) based on the investors degree of control over each firm. We test alternative definitions of this control with actual data from the Spanish electricity sector and show that recent decisions in this industry, particularly the failed merger between the largest firms, Endesa and Iberdrola, could have been affected had the GHHI been used by the competition agency.     

Strategic behavior of insiders in initial underpricing and long-run underperformance

We study strategic behavior of insiders in ChiNext IPOs. Since traditional initial underpricing is not appropriate due to the jawbone P/E ratio approach and maximum initial return cap we propose two alternative measures. We identify a significantly positive relationship between insiders' shareholdings and initial underpricing. With no discretion on IPO offer price, the insiders implement earnings management to maintain higher stock prices induced by regulatory changes and high market demand and to facilitate selling their unlocked shares after lockup expiration. We confirm a negative impact from insiders' share sales on long-term performance but don't observe a dramatic underperformance as documented.     

The Use of Archimedean Copulas to Model Portfolio Allocations

A copula is a means of generating an n -variate distribution function from an arbitrary set of n univariate distributions. For the class of portfolio allocators that are risk averse, we use the copula approach to identify a large set of n -variate asset return distributions such that the relative magnitudes of portfolio shares can be ordered according to the reversed hazard rate ordering of the n underlying univariate distributions. We also establish conditions under which first- and second-degree dominating shifts in one of the n underlying univariate distributions increase allocation to that asset. Our findings exploit separability properties possessed by the Archimedean family of copulas.     

Do Investments in Specialized Knowledge Lead to Composite Good Industries?

We try to understand why firms producing goods by means of complementary components do not merge, especially in industries in which investments in component-based knowledge matters. As Audretsch, we state that these activities are developed by “individuals” who do their best to appropriate the return from their knowledge and whose effort is non-contractible. The organization of the industry into firms is identified to a partition of the set of individuals. In this context, we prove that an organization in which each individual hold his own firms is both stable with respect to unilateral deviation and optimal in the line of the property right approach. If the returns are high enough, this structure is even the only one which shares both properties.     

中国上市公司股权转让市场效应的实证研究

本文研究了中国产权改革背景下控制权市场是否有效的问题。根据2003-2004年深沪A股上市公司的214起大宗股权转让记录,本文采用事项研究法研究了股权转让对公司市场价值的影响,并进一步考察了累积非正常回报率的影响因素。本文研究发现(1)股票市场对大宗股权转让的市场反应显著为正。平均而言,股票价格在转让公告前20个交易日开始上涨至公告后一个交易日,累积非正常回报率约为1.15%;(2)转让的价格越高,向市场传达积极的信号,市场反应越好;(3)控制权转让的公司比那些不转让控制权的公司有着更好的反应。