影响中国与东盟服务贸易逆差因素分析

中国目前已经成为东盟第一大贸易伙伴,东盟也已经成为继欧盟和美国之后中国的第三大贸易伙伴,中国与东盟之间的双边贸易已经越来越重要,但是中国与东盟服务贸易存在着逆差。本文通过分析中国与东盟国家的服务贸易发展状况,以及计算贸易互补性指数和贸易竞争性指数来分析造成中国与东盟服务贸易逆差的主要原因,并提出减少我国服务贸易逆差的建议。随着2010年中国——东盟自由贸易区的全面开启,中国与东盟之间的双边贸易关系日益紧密,截止到2016年1月,中国与东盟双边贸易额已经达到2959亿美元,中国目前已经成为东盟第一大贸易伙伴,东盟也已经成为继欧盟和美国之后中国的第三大贸易伙伴。本文通过分析中国与东盟服务贸易的发展现状以及存在的问题,研究形成中国与东盟五国服务贸易逆差的主要原因,并提出提高中国与东盟双边服务贸易的相关对策于建议。     

中国与乌兹别克斯坦棉花贸易互补性研究

研究中国与乌兹别克斯坦棉花贸易互补性对促进中乌两国在农业、经贸和棉花深加工技术交流方面有重要意义。通过对中乌两国棉花贸易现状、生产区位、技术优势及潜力互补性进行探讨,利用中乌2008—2017年10年间棉纺织产品进出口贸易额进行了中国与乌兹别克斯坦棉花贸易互补性分析。分析结果表明,中国与乌兹别克斯坦棉花贸易互补性存在较大潜力,但两国棉花贸易受汇率、政策、生产技术、安全以及基础设施建设等各方面因素影响,2008—2017年间两国棉花贸易额额并没有持续递增,而是呈现不稳定的波动趋势。因此,为促进中乌两国在农业、经贸和棉花深加工技术交流方面的深度互补,加强投资法律的实施、建立跨境贸易人民币结算体系和棉花生产技术合作尤为重要。     

中国与东盟贸易竞争力及贸易相似度的实证分析

反映中国与东盟贸易结构的主要指标有贸易竞争力指数、显性比较优势指数、产业内贸易指数与贸易相似度指数。对上述指数的实证分析表明，中国和东盟的出口贸易结构存在着很大的相似性，双方贸易的竞争性远超过互补性。     

CAFTA背景下深化广东与东盟经贸合作的策略研究

2010年1月1日,中国一东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)正式启动,为中国特别是广东带来了机遇和挑战.中国与东盟的经贸合作日益密切,在投资合作、信贷合作等领域取得了较好的成绩.但多年来,我国未能充分挖掘东盟贸易区的潜力,与东盟的投资贸易合作占比较低,存在北部湾经济区战略规划不够完整以及广东重要作用未能充分发挥等问题.根据区域经济理论,我们通过分析广东在中国一东盟合作中的比较优势,提出当前推动我国与东盟的经贸合作需要进一步发挥广东的带头作用,采取调整广东经济发展战略、争取国家战略规划的支持、构建广东与东盟的合作平台、促进广东与东盟的金融合作等四大建议,积极推动广东与东盟的经贸与金融合作,全面实现国家东盟战略目标.     

中国-东盟资本流动监管与金融风险防范合作研究

本文在分析中国-东盟加强资本流动监管与金融风险防范合作的必要性的基础上,对中国-东盟资本流动监管与金融风险防范合作的进展及存在问题进行了探讨。最后,笔者就加强中国-东盟资本流动监管与金融风险防范合作提出了一些政策建议,包括：完善区域金融监督机制与危机救助机制;推进地区产业、贸易和汇率政策的协调;进一步推动地区债券市场建设。     

中国与东盟在贸易上的竞争性与互补性研究

中国与东盟的贸易在近二十年中获得了快速发展,双方作为贸易伙伴的重要性不断得到提升.中国与东盟国家都是出口导向型国家,在出口产品结构和对外贸易的地区结构上存在很大的相似性,因此在对外贸易上具有很大的竞争性;同时,双方在资源结构、产业结构、市场需求以及科学技术等方面又具有不少的互补性.中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立将促进双方贸易关系的协调发展,从而带动本地区经济增长.     

中蒙贸易实证分析

本文分析了中蒙贸易额分别对中国对外贸易总额和蒙古国对外贸易总额的影响。得出中蒙贸易额与两国的对外贸易总额都是正相关关系,只是中蒙贸易额对两国对外贸易额的影响程度不同而已。还分析了中蒙贸易额分别与两国GDP增长的相关关系,得出中蒙贸易额对蒙古国的GDP增长的影响大于对中国的GDP增长的影响,并进一步对其原因进行了分析。对中蒙贸易关系中存在的问题提出了相应的政策建议。     

影响中国与东盟贸易的因素分析——基于引力模型的研究

自中国-东盟自由贸易区建立后,中国与东盟双边贸易迅速发展。本文试图利用2000-2005年的面板数据建立引力模型,分析影响中国与东盟双边贸易的因素。研究结果表明:经济总量、人均GDP、空间距离、中国-东盟自由贸易区的建立和“早期收获计划“对中国与东盟双边贸易的作用是显著的。     

打造中国-东盟自贸区升级版

在中国东盟战略合作伙伴关系不断加强的时代背景下，打造中国一东盟自贸区升级版。已经成为中国与东盟实现合作共赢的客观与现实需要。升级步伐的加快和收入水平的不断提升，中国与东盟经济之间的互补性特征正在增强，竞争性正在减弱。在中国目前的出口产品中，资金与技术密集型的机电产品比重高达近60％，而劳动密集型的纺织服装等产品的出口比重已经降至20％左右；而东盟国家，目前出口仍然以资源密集性和劳动密集型产品为     

中国与东盟贸易高质量发展的挑战与建议

<正>共建“一带一路”倡议，为我国与东盟国家深入交流合作提供平台与动力，应从改善贸易环境、发展数字经济、完善贸易争端解决机制等方面入手，建设更为紧密的中国-东盟命运共同体，做深做实数字丝绸之路。党的二十大报告明确指出，共建“一带一路”成为深受欢迎的国际公共产品和国际合作平台，报告提出要继续“推动共建‘一带一路’高质量发展”。从现实情况来看，东盟10国都已加入共建“一带一路”国家行列。从1991年到2021年的30年间，中国与东盟双边贸易额增长超过100倍。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…