Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies

This article presents a systematic analysis of the availability and use of fiscal space in emerging and developing economies. We report two major results. First, emerging and developing economies built fiscal space in the run-up to the Great Recession of 2008–2009, which was then used for stimulus. Since then, fiscal space has shrunk and remains narrow as these economies have taken advantage of historically low interest rates. Second, fiscal policy in emerging and developing economies has become countercyclical (or less procyclical), i.e., “graduated,” since the 1980s, as most clearly demonstrated during the Great Recession. The move towards graduation is most pronounced for those economies with greater fiscal space, which suggests that fiscal space matters for a government’s ability to implement countercyclical fiscal policy.     

An analysis of shopping center investment

During the 1980s, the oversupply of retail space has lowered rents, raised vacancies, and damaged the integrity of financial institutions as developers and other borrowers have been forced into default. This paper explores the propensity of developers to create shopping center space. The research draws on the macroeconomic investment literature to formulate a model of shopping center investment. We estimate our model using shopping center and sales data from all fifty states of the United States and the District of Columbia. Our results provide evidence about how investment in new shopping space responds to changes in retail sales, capital costs, and taxes.     

Alternative space futures: The next quarter-century

Space developments do not exist in a vacuum! The shape of future space activities will depend on a combination of social, economic and political forces, creating the determinants for different patterns of space utilization. Forecasts of alternative space futures can therefore be explored by integrating different scenarios of world development and space trends. Here, alternative world trends are related to the underlying dynamics of space development, in terms of the economic, military and scientific utilization of space. The importance of space as a political issue is thus emphasized, in that the outcomes of policy choices to be made both now and in the future will help shape the social and economic contexts in which space technology will be used in the decades ahead.     

The moon–mars initiative: Making the vision real

During the Apollo period, NASA functioned as a destination driven agency, with its efforts focused on reaching the Moon. Since 1973, however, NASA has had no overriding goal, instead functioning as a constituency-driven bureaucracy doling out dollars for an assortment of random programs that do not fit together and do not lead anywhere. As a result, despite NASA budgets over the past two decades fully comparable to the average prevalent during the Apollo period, the space agency's level of accomplishment has been orders of magnitude less. This article discusses the difference between NASA's Apollo era and Shuttle era modes of operation, making clear why NASA needs a goal and why that goal must be humans to Mars.     

低碳视角下西安大城市地区空间增长调控初探(英文)

城市空间既是城市人生存发展的条件,同时又是这种发展的结果。在保证城市空间理性增长的同时,又有效地促使节能减排工作实现,是学界研究的热点。本文基于城市空间理性增长这一主题,立足于低碳视角下,从低碳区域空间格局、低碳城市空间规划等多个面向入手,结合西安大城市地区这个实例,探讨城市空间低碳化发展调控的具体措施,冀望能为城市可持续发展提供科学的决策依据及有所裨益。     

The first quarter-century of spaceflight

The article presents an overview of the significant events and achievements of the first 25 years of spaceflight. The primary focus is on the progress and evolution of the space programmes of the USA and the USSR, although significant developments in other national and international space programmes are also discussed. Emerging issues likely to be increasingly important in the years ahead are explored—the militarization of space, international competition surrounding the commercialization of space activitites, access to space for LDCs, and the nature of the political and legal regimes for space.     

基于空间关联性的广深两地产业结构调整研究——珠三角经济区域背景下的考察

本文以珠三角区域九大城市的产业结构演进与关联为背景,利用空间滞后模型SLM和地理加权回归模型GWR分全域和局域对珠三角九大城市产业结构变化的空间关系进行空间计量回归,在全域回归分析的结论基础上进一步验证广深两地局域存在的产业结构调整动态的空间关联性,结果显示：从全域空间计量的参数估计和分析结论来看,变量消费、产业结构初始值、人均GDP、技术进步率和政府干预显著,其余变量则不显著;进一步的GWR局域分析表明,产业结构初始值、外商直接投资和政府干预等因素,对区域内各城市之间的产业结构调整作用均显示出异质性。基于这两方面的分析,为珠三角区域产业结构调整,尤其是中心城市产业结构调整,提出对策建议。     

Space: Battlefield of the future?

This article examines the trends in the development and deployment of weapons systems for use in space—both the ‘conventional’ and the more exotic space weapon technologies for antisatellite operations and ballistic missile defence. The feasibility of such weapons is assessed and the prospects for future development and deployment considered. The political and strategic implications of these trends are such that there is an urgent need for measures to slow down, or stop, the militarization of space.     

低碳视角下西安大城市地区空间增长调控初探

城市空间既是城市人生存发展的条件,同时又是这种发展的结果.在保证城市空间理性增长的同时,又有效地促使节能减排工作实现,是学界研究的热点.本文基于城市空间理性增长这一主题,立足于低碳视角下,从低碳区域空间格局、低碳城市空间规划等多个面向入手,结合西安大城市地区这个实例,探讨城市空间低碳化发展调控的具体措施,冀望能为城市可持续发展提供科学的决策依据及有所裨益.     

农村金融减贫的直接效应与中介效应——基于状态空间模型和中介效应检验的动态分析

基于中国农村1986~2010年的时间序列数据,采用状态空间模型和中介效应分析方法检验并测算了农村金融发展对农村贫困的影响效应及其成分。研究结果表明：农村金融发展有效促进了农村贫困缓减,并且在促进农村贫困缓减的过程中中介效应与直接效应并存。     

The industrialization of space: Prospects and barriers

In the USA, and also in some Western European countries, there is noticeable business and government confidence in a larger, more productive role for private invetment in space applications. The industrialization of space is now a serious possibility. This paper examines the role of private interests in this field, explores how government can stimulate or assist private space ventures particularly through removing barriers to investment and offering incentives, and discussess the pros and cons of possible policy initiatives.     

The militarization of space: From passive support to active weapons systems

Space has become an essential element of the strategic balance. Large investments in passive satellites and a growing dependence on them have created potential new strategic problems and arms control challenges. there is also a resurgence of interest in ‘active’ weapon systems based on developments in laser and particle beam technology. This paper reviews the evolution of military space programmes, and explores the present and future challenges and dilemmas.     

Towards technological expansion in the solar system?

The prospect of expanding our technological system into space raises two main questions—why and how. This article dicusses these questions and the strategies necessary if space programmes are to achieve such a goal.     

Space for whom?

A critical assessment of the prospects and constraints of space technology in relation to the socioeconomic and sociocultural development of society emphasizes the need for a reevaluation of the progress made thus far. Proper use of the unique space environment and the adjustment of technology to the requirements of changing pluriform societies could provide mankind with new capabilities for a well balanced utilization of resources, environmental monitoring, and global management.     

序数空间中企业战略风险与企业绩效关系研究——基于中国纺织业面板数据分析

依据序数空间中的熵理论,将战略风险转化为企业在战略参考系统内收益排名的下降带来的负面不确定信息,构建序数战略风险度量模型度量企业战略风险,克服了传统的均值方差等度量方法的局限性。运用2001～2009的中国纺织业相关数据,构建面板数据随机效应模型对企业战略风险与绩效关系进行分析,结果表明战略风险和企业的净资产收益率及总资产周转率呈负相关关系,企业非流动资产周转率和股息支付率对企业战略风险正向影响较小。     

英语口语教学的认知心理空间探析

大学英语教学改革对大学英语口语教学提出新的、更高的要求。目前大学英语教学理念中存在"重输出、轻输入"的误区。认知语言学认为,口语交际是一种认知体验活动,本文拟对认知心理空间在大学英语口语教学中作用之认知理据进行探讨。     

国际货币的演化:空间维度与时间维度

无论从空间维度,还是时间维度,通过对货币功能演变及内涵变化的分析可以看出,尽管单一全球货币的实施还为时尚早,但事实上,货币一直在经历着走向统一的过程,并逐渐显露出统一化趋势,大同时代必将到来。     

我国股票和房地产市场的财富效应研究——基于状态空间模型的实证分析

运用状态空间模型和脉冲响应函数考量我国股票和房地产市场的财富效应进行了时变特征研究,结果表明,目前我国股票市场长期内具有稳定的微弱负向财富效应,而房地产市场长期内存在稳定的正向财富效应,房地产市场的财富效应要大于股票市场。同时,2011年末的欧债危机,对于这两种市场财富效应的影响十分微弱。鉴此,应逐步增加居民股票收益,保持房地产市场价格的平稳运行,努力提高居民收入水平。     

Effect of perceived conflict among multiple performance goals and goal difficulty on task performance

Contemporary performance measurement systems, such as the balanced scorecard, often advocate the use of an array of financial and non‐financial measures. Despite many claimed advantages for these systems, recent research shows that the inclusion of multiple performance measures sometimes has undesirable effects. The present study examines one of the potential problems of implementing these systems; namely, the impact of perceived goal conflict on task performance. Using survey data from employees working in multiple call centres in a telecommunication company, we find that perceived goal difficulty increases perceived goal conflict. Additionally, perceived goal difficulty also has a negative, indirect effect of task performance, through the mediating role of perceived goal conflict. Our results have important implications for both the research literature and the designers of performance measurement systems.     

Prediction of Individual Bond Prices via a Dynamic Bond Pricing Model: Application to Japanese Government Bond Price Data

In this paper, we propose a dynamic bond pricing model and report the usefulness of our bond pricing model based on analysis of Japanese Government bond price data. We extend the concept of the time dependent Markov (TDM) model proposed by Kariya and Tsuda (Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Vol. 1, pp. 1–20) to a dynamic model, which can obtain information for future bond prices. A main feature of the extended model is that the whole stochastic process of the random cash-flow discount functions of each individual bond has a time series structure. We express the dynamic structure for the models by using a Bayesian state space representation. The state space approach integrates cross-sectional and time series aspects of individual bond prices. From the empirical results, we find useful evidence that our model performs well for the prediction of the patterns of the term structure of the individual bond returns.