Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish national environmental objectives

The aim of the present paper is to present and evaluate a method for encouraging long-term thinking and considerations of a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental objectives that national authorities are responsible for. They are evaluated annually and also in-depth every fourth year. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing a more long-term thinking in the work with the environmental objectives, tested in the in-depth evaluation 2008. An experience was that it is difficult to design a collective scenario work in a case with a wide variety of objectives and with individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies in authorities work. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies competence and thinking at the authorities. Another experience is that despite the difficulties, experts at the authorities did start thinking more in terms of opportunities with futures studies. A general conclusion from the work was that there is an interest and need for futures studies at the authorities in charge of the environmental objectives. The possibly most important conclusion from this project was that the authorities need to build up their own competences in futures studies.     

Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish environmental quality objectives

This paper presents and evaluates a method for encouraging long-term thinking and for considering a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental quality objectives (EQOs) that national authorities are obliged to observe. These objectives are reviewed annually and evaluated in depth every four years. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing more long-term thinking into work on the EQOs, which we tested in the in-depth evaluation in 2008. We found it difficult to design a collective scenario for a case with a wide variety of objectives and individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies into the work of the relevant authorities. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies expertise and thinking within authorities. Despite the difficulties, we found that experts within the authorities did begin to recognise the opportunities provided by futures studies. The project revealed an interest and need for futures studies within the authorities in charge of Swedish environmental quality objectives and our findings show that the authorities need to build up their own skills in futures studies.     

The future only arrives when things look dangerous: Reflections on futures education in the UK

This article takes the form of a personal reflection on the struggle to establish futures education in the UK school curriculum. After promising beginnings in the 1980s under the aegis of global educators the 1990s saw a retrenchment in order to create a research base and to develop appropriate support materials for teachers. Whilst until recently not understood or accepted by most mainstream educators a futures perspective is now beginning to be included in the work of geographical educators. In particular some aspects of futures thinking are also becoming enshrined in initiatives relating to education for sustainability. Encouraging teachers to develop a futures perspective in their own curriculum area may be a more profitable way forward than trying to promote futures education as a separate entity. Dominant neoliberal ideology and its influence on education will always make it difficult to challenge mainstream views of the future.     

Always coming home: Towards an archaeology of the future

This paper reports on a research project which facilitated a group of socially committed educators to clarify the nature of their desirable futures and to identify their sources of hope. This work is set within the normative tradition of futures studies and an account is given of how the research process was arrived at and the way in which people responded to this. A participatory and experiential focus group format enabled participants to explore these issues in a fruitful and synergetic way. Key elements of their preferable futures and primary sources of hope are identified and then compared with previous research findings. Finally these concerns are located within wider contemporary debates about revisionary postmodernism, sustainable futures and the utopian tradition.     

Consumer education and everyday futures work

The purpose of this article is to draft new tasks for consumer education in a transformed and transforming world and consumption situation. The basic claim is that consumer education needs to become empowering or emancipatory, and that this can be reached through emphasizing the futures aspect and skills concerning everyday futures work. The functions of traditional consumer education can be described as socializative, preventive and corrective. This is not enough in a rapidly changing world in which consumers face completely new challenges. Section 2 of this article studies changes focal to the individual consumer. In Section 3 I define the basic functions of a household as an economic unit, consumption and consumer education. In Section 4 I continue the analysis of the functions of consumer education with the help of the neologism everyday futures work, which is grounded on the application of Joseph Nuttin's theory of action. I also argue that to fulfill an empowering function, consumer education has to emphasize the futures aspect. The core concept here is futures-will, which highlights the dynamic character of human action. In Section 5 I suggest relevant solutions for consumer education in relation to the challenges and functions of consumption described above as well as explain how the enhancing of everyday futures work skills could be applied in the framework of the cycle of human action. I conclude the article by discussing some recent topics in consumer education to show that consumer education thinking is in some measure - even if not often explicitly expressed - converging with futures education.     

Transcending flatland: Implications of Ken Wilber's meta-narrative for futures studies

The Western futures project was originally founded on empiricist notions of prediction, forecasting and control. While other approaches to futures work, other traditions and ways of knowing, have certainly become established, the early framing of Futures Studies arguably occurred out of this broadly reductionist framework—what Wilber has since termed `flatland'. As a result, current ideologies such as: economic growth, globalisation, the pre-eminence accorded to science and technology, and `man's conquest of nature'—were insufficiently problematised. Technology-led views of the future remain influential within Futures Studies, bureaucratic thinking and popular culture. In this view, the future is less open than it might be because it is seen merely as an extension of the present. Critical Futures Studies question such assumptions. The paper explores how the work of this leading transpersonal synthesist can contribute both to a broadening and deepening of Futures Studies and thus help to activate cultural options that are presently obscured.     

Teaching about the future

Since 1984 UNESCO has been developing a programme of prospective studies. This programme was re-named ‘future-oriented studies’ and is now centred around three groups of activities: a project on the futures of culture; the development of education and training with special emphasis on disseminating the methodology of future-oriented studies; and the creation of an international bibliographic database called FUTURESCO. An invitational seminar, ‘Teaching about the future’, held in Vancouver, 21–23 June 1992, was a direct consequence of the above. It was organized and hosted by UNESCO (with FUTURESCO and the Canadian Commission for UNESCO). It brought together about 20 professional futurists from Pacific Basin countries to consider a range of theoretical, practical and pedagogic issues associated with teaching futures, mainly at the tertiary level.     

Revisiting a futures studies project—‘Reflections on 1985’

In 1962, a futures studies group was launched in France on behalf of the Commissariat au Plan, reporting directly to the French Prime Minister. The group aimed at ‘studying, on the basis of future-shaping elements, what should be known right now about 1985 France’. This paper revisits that important and original futures studies project, which encapsulated efficiently the dominant values and beliefs of a Western country at a turning point of its political and economical history.In its first part, this note recalls the French context in 1964, the frame of mind, and methodology of the group. Then the main findings of the Group 1985 are outlined, be it evolutions that inspired hope (a wealthier economy, improved living conditions), and also fears attached to the future (individual may face new dependencies and higher pressures, while some shortages could appear), which should be averted thanks to active policies in the fields of education, European unity, scientific research, or public administration reform. Last, this paper analyses both the strengths and weaknesses of the Group 1985 report, drawing lessons that remain valuable for contemporary studies on the future of a whole country.In 1962, Pierre Massé, then Commissaire au Plan, set up a futures study Group chaired by Pierre Guillaumat. The Group published in 1964 a report entitled ‘Reflections on 1985’ which was a stimulating futures studies work. ALEPH thought fruitful to revisit this document.     

Futures research and global change

Futures research must be carried out on the basis of people having the right to choose their own future. There is thus a need, particularly in the developing countries, for the spread of training in futures to those who will themselves be shaping their own future, and this places responsibilities on futures specialists in the developed North. The global value changes underway must also be confronted if futures research is to retain its relevance. A ‘project approach’ is preferred, which embraces both extrapolative and normative futures methodologies.     

Near Future School: World building beyond a neoliberal present with participatory design fictions

This article reports on one part of an on-going project, the Near Future School, which aims to translate and explore the potential of participatory design fiction practices for use with young people and those that work with them to explore near future scenarios of education that open up alternative and plural futures in the context of processes of foreclosure in a neoliberalising society. The focus here is to explore the practical and ethical issues of developing a speculative form of governance, using the philosophy of Benedict de Spinoza, as an act of imaginative world building through participatory design fictions. The research raises a series of questions and issues relating to understanding how design fiction’s multiple inheritances, from fiction and design or art and design, need to be better understood and enacted within participatory design fiction processes.     

Implications of two new paradigms for futures studies

The paper considers the emergence of two recent perspectives in futures work. One is evolutionary futures studies. The other is critical futures studies. After describing aspects of each, the paper considers them as alternative rival paradigms in relation to criteria that include: the role of the human being as subject, the role of interpretation and differences in methodological premises. It concludes that both have contributed to the development of futures methods but that a number of theoretical and methodological problems still remain unsolved.     

Preparing for the professional futures field:: Observations from the UHCLC futures program

The futures field is an arena of increasing interest and activity. This article seeks to: (1) provide general information about key information sources for directed inquiry into futures studies; (2) sketch the origins and current status of the graduate program in Studies of the Future offered by the University of Houston at Clear Lake City—currently the largest and most comprehensive program of its kind; (3) Describe the methodology used in a recent strategic planning and program development project to update the UHCLC program; and (4) convey some guiding observations on teaching and research in futures studies, and on helping students find appropriate employment.     

A futures perspective in Dutch geography education

Geography education offers many possibilities for futures education. In The Netherlands, a future perspective is obvious in the vision behind the curriculum for secondary education, but this perspective becomes thinner and less open when elaborated in the syllabus, textbooks and examinations. From an intended ideal curriculum with challenging future relevant issues and a call for scenario thinking, it changes into a presentation of a fixed and often negative future in the perceived implemented curriculum. In a focus group meeting with stakeholders of the geography educators’ community, there is recognition of the importance of a futures perspective. But there is also uncertainty and unfamiliarity, when it comes to implementing a futures perspective in geography education. Moreover, the institutional constraints, with an output testing regime, prevent the geography educators from making substantial room in their implemented curriculum for futures education. To enable geography teachers to implement or improve a futures perspective in their education, more clarity about the function and form is necessary. By researching and supporting good teaching practice, the expertise needed can be built, extended and used to empower a lobby advocating a more supportive national policy.     

Peru in the 21st century : Challenges and possibilities

The Peruvian 21st century study, initially conceived in 1981 and still going on, is a large programme consisting of several interlinked projects. Simulations have been done on the future of 10 key national sectors, and these simulations have then been integrated to produce scenarios describing alternative feasible futures. At the same time, a group of desired scenarios has been constructed using personal interviews and a consultation process. There has been initial work on a third project examining key external factors affecting Peruvian development. Still to be undertaken are projects identifying specific development strategies and analysing the national planning process. Especially noteworthy products of the study are the user-friendly spreadsheet models, which make the feasible futures component of the study highly accessible to interested decision makers.     

Futures research and the IPCC assessment study on the effects of climate change

Mainly based on a survey of the occurrence of futures research-related references in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, I have investigated the contribution of futures research to the IPCC assessments of the effects of climate change. The assumption I have made here is that, if futures research has made a contribution to the IPCC assessment work, it should also be reflected in the references quoted or cited. I have also briefly commented on the activities by the futurists themselves regarding the future challenge of climate change. As a complement to the contribution survey, I ask and discuss to what degree futures research could and should be participating in a study like that of the IPCC. The survey of the futures research contributions showed that, up to now, futures research has been only modestly represented in the IPCC climate change effect assessment studies. The contribution both could and should have been more extensive than it has been up to the present, a view to which I return in the final discussion.     

The predictive performance of the currency futures basis for spot returns

This paper investigates the predictive performance of the futures basis in directly forecasting currency spot returns and compares it with that of the one-month forward basis. We consider the settle prices of both front-month and nearby-month continuous futures contracts and find that the futures basis exhibits statistically and economically significant in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting power, which clearly exceeds that of the well-known forward basis. The empirical results show that spot returns correspond negatively to both the front-month futures basis and nearby-month futures basis. Furthermore, the futures basis reveals substantial economic value for investors in terms of sizable and tangible portfolio gains, which are consistent with statistical measures. The difference in the forecasting ability of the futures basis and forward basis can be explained by the level of exposure to the time-varying risk premium. Finally, we find that impacts of the futures basis on spot returns vary with time and experienced substantial structural changes during the Global Financial Crisis.     

Visioning 2035: The future of the higher education sector in the UK

The concept of ‘university’ has been around for centuries and yet the majority of British Universities have yet to reach their 50th birthday. The higher education sector has been through extensive change over a relatively short period of time and this is likely to continue in the future. This paper presents the results of a futures study focussed on the Higher Education sector in the UK in 10 and 25 years time. Following an extensive, broad ranging literature review covering business, education, futures, and socio-political texts and studies, a series of scenarios were developed for the future of the sector as a whole. This study differs from other studies in its field as it is does not focus on individual institutions, but rather at the environmental factors that are going to impact on the sector, setting out a range of scenarios within which institutions will need to shape their individual futures. Five scenarios are presented in this paper with their underlying driving factors, and their implications for the academic workforce being employed in the sector.     

Emerging pathways for critical futures research: Changing contexts and impacts of social theory

There has always been a critical, emancipatory tradition within futures studies. Although those voices can still be heard, there has been a growing tendency for futures studies to be driven by more utilitarian needs in business and government. Whilst it is positive that futures thinking and research is increasingly valued within corporate and policy-making settings, much of that work appears to lack genuine plurality of worldviews and interests.The paper traces the changing contexts for futures research over the past 25 years. It argues that futures research needs to be viewed as part of the re-politicisation – in the Habermasian sense – of technocratic decision-making. It suggests that there are three particular reasons for revisiting the need for criticality in futures research: the increasing acknowledgement of systemic interrelatedness (ecological, social, economic), a growth in the forward-looking socio-economic paradigm that permeates both business and policy, and the challenge of theory development. Drawing on social theory and futures research, we suggest three pathways for revived critical futures research: socio-technical practices, future-oriented dialectics, and socio-economic imaginaries. As a result, the paper calls for development in futures studies that would dialectically integrate and overcome the dichotomy between instrumentalisation and (critical) theorising that can be currently understood as somewhat antagonistic. In order to find a balance between these antagonistic dimensions, futures research should be more engaged in enabling critique and revealing assumptions and interests.     

Futures studies comes of age: twenty-five years after The limits to growth

Twenty-five years ago, the publication of The limits to growth marked a period of accomplishments in the futures field. Today, futures studies is experiencing another burst of development and is ready to move more fully into mainstream intellectual life and the standard educational curriculum. In addition to continued work on methods, theory, and empirical research, the resolution of three issues might help persuade established academic communities of the serious purposes and sound intellectual contributions of futurists. They are (1) the adoption of an adequate theory of knowledge (critical realism is proposed), (2) the recognition that prediction does play a role in futures studies (so we can deal explicitly with the philosophical challenges it poses), and (3) the formulation and justification of core values (so we have a valid basis by which to judge the desirability of alternative futures). I propose a critical discourse among futurists in order to resolve each issue. The desire to make futures thinking a part of everyone's education is not, of course, mere futurist chauvinism, but is based on the conviction that futures studies has important contributions to make to human well-being.     

Futures in Australian education—tacit, token and taken for granted

This article critically examines ways in which futures are conceptualized in the language of Australian education. From an analysis of selected examples of research reports, policy documents and other texts, it is suggested that futures in Australian educational discourse are often conceived in terms of (1) tacit inferences, (2) token invocations or (3) taken for granted assumptions. Conceptualizing futures in such ways may be disempowering and allows education in Australia to be vulnerable to forces of economic and technological determinism.