Technological generalizations and leitbilder—the anticipation of technological opportunities

Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on “nodes of discussion.” These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild.” The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them.     

Continuous forecasting methods

The concept of a continuously operating system of expert opinion, a “collective brain” involving the combination of Delphi and network chart procedures, is discussed. The computer-aided process described by the author uses four types of information: the forecast of external actions of the environment, the values of control parameters as function of time, the current values of internal parameters, and estimates obtained from the principal experts.     

The UK technology foresight programme: An assessment of expert estimates

Since the early 1990s, ‘Technology Foresight’ exercises with special emphasis on the use of Delphi surveys have played an important role in science and technology (S + T) policy across Europe in an effort to focus resource allocation. Yet, none of the estimates made in the European Delphi surveys have been formally assessed in retrospect, while this process has been incorporated into the Japanese surveys since 1996. Taking the UK Technology Foresight Programme, this research sets out to assess the estimates of three of the fifteen panel Delphi surveys. Whilst on average 2/3 of Delphi statements were predicted to be realised by 2004, it will be shown that only a fraction of these statements had been realised by 2006. Based on the evidence collected from the published panel reports, the ‘Hindsight on Foresight’ survey conducted by OST in 1995 and interviews with panel members, it will be argued that the overwhelming majority of estimates were overly optimistic. While optimism and strategic gaming of experts is the most convincing explanation for these results, process factors were also explored, including the quality of expert panels used, the Delphi statements and the respondents of the Delphi questionnaire. It is argued that at least the issue of short-range optimism and strategic gaming of experts should be addressed in future Delphi exercises, as decision makers relying on expert advice cannot deal with this issue alone.     

'Technology foresight towards 2020 in China': the practice and its impacts

Technology foresight has attracted increasing attention from government and academia as well as industry since the 1990s. However, the impact of technology foresight on national strategic decision-making varies from country to country. This paper aims to introduce the 'Technology Foresight towards 2020' exercise in China, which has been conducted by a research group in the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The paper consists of five parts: (1) introduction; (2) the framework for technology foresight towards 2020 in China; (3) the methodology including scenario building for identifying technology demands and the method for processing and analysing the data from a Delphi survey; (4) the major results of a Delphi survey in the following four research fields: Information technology, Biotechnology, Energy technology, Material science and technology; and (5) the impact of the research on decision-making concerning science and technology development in China.     

Does expert information affect citizens’ attitudes toward Corona policies? Evidence from Germany

Information provided by experts is believed to play a key role in shaping attitudes towards policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper uses a survey experiment to assess whether providing citizens with expert information about the health risk of COVID-19 and the economic costs of lockdown measures affects their attitudes towards these policies. Our findings show that providing respondents with information about COVID-19 fatalities among the elderly raises support for lockdown measures, while information about their economic costs decreases support. However, different population subgroups react differently. Men and younger respondents react more sensitively to information about lockdown costs, while women and older respondents are more susceptible towards information regarding fatality rates. Strikingly, our results are entirely driven by respondents who underestimate the fatality of COVID-19, who represent a majority.     

Identification of future fields of standardisation: An explorative application of the Delphi methodology

This paper investigates the application of the Delphi methodology for the identification of future fields of standardisation complemented by a methodological extension by using various science and technology indicators. By the term standardisation, we broadly mean the process of developing and implementing technical standards within a standardisation body. Underlining the explorative nature of this paper, we describe the process of identifying future fields of standardisation.To provide a systematic forecasting view on complex science and technology fields, a combination of quantitative indicator-based analyses and qualitative in-depth Delphi surveys is choosen. Firstly, statistical analyses of suitable indicators are used to identify dynamic developments in such fields. Secondly, to identify detailed challenges for future standardisation, qualitative Delphi surveys are conducted. To collect and evaluate relevant issues the respective expert communities were included. They were identified by using information derived from the science and technology databases used.The paper concludes with the assessment of the chosen approach and give practical insights for its feasibility based on a review of the existing literature on the Delphi methodology. In addition, an outlook for further improvements and other possible fields of application is given.     

Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan

Japan started its development in science and technology later than other countries but was nevertheless quite successful. Many factors contributed to this success—and one of them was the adaptation of large foresight studies at the end of the 1960s. In Japan, the Science and Technology Agency (STA), among others, in 1971 started to conduct a large study on the future of science and technology. The Delphi method was one technique used for foresight activities. This was not considered a tool of prediction but an instrument to systematically look into the long-term future. Among the aims of this type of national activity is the identification of areas of strategic research and of generic technologies most likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Although many countries stopped their national foresight activities in the 1970s, the Japanese Delphi process continued and was applied every five years. In 1997, the sixth study was finished. Yet, Japanese technology policies are less consistent than is commonly believed and involve an assortment of policy measures and actors/agencies pragmatically devised to address diverse, ever-changing, and sometimes conflicting needs embedded in a broad range of issues. Forecasting results provide the “language” to communicate among Japanese actors in science, technology, and society.     

Future prospects of alternative agro-based bioenergy use in Finland—Constructing scenarios with quantitative and qualitative Delphi data

In this paper, the potential of bioenergy production in agriculture (preferred and probable futures) is scrutinised using the Delphi method. We present a case of northern possibilities to utilise renewable energy sources within agriculture in a form of alternative bioenergy scenarios. Altogether 20 experts participated in the Delphi process which outlines the future of bioenergy production in Finland. The first round of the Delphi study was carried out by semi-structured interviews and the second feedback round by means of a mail questionnaire. Background information of key variables was presented to the panellists who responded with their views on developments between 2004 and 2025. Alternative scenarios were then constructed from these dimensions with cluster analysis in line with the Disaggregative Policy Delphi (DPD) approach. Quantitative statements were complemented with the experts' argumentation. Five scenarios were constructed: 1) Renewable prosperity, 2) Incremental change, 3) Vision of sun, wind and wood, 4) Let's burn it all, and 5) Flood of waterpower. After the Delphi rounds, a dialogue seminar for the agri-technology experts and policy-makers was organised. These results bring to the table an agri-food technology expert community view of the future directions for Finnish agro-bioenergy use.     

Directions in Delphi developments: Dissertations and their quality

The general question of whether Delphi users have learned from Delphi research of the past decade is addressed in this article. Within the wider context of Delphi expansion anddevelopment, specific attention is given to examining the nature and quality of the growing number of Delphi dissertations. Although there are some signs for encouragement, the findings from the sample of dissertationsexamined might also give cause for some concern. Findings raise continuing questions related to excellencein the execution of Delphi studies and also to the concentration of applications of the technique in certain fields. It appears that the future of Delphi could be brighter if users of the technique would be more careful in implementing “quality control.”     

Using Delphi for a Long-Range Technology Forecasting, and Assessing Directions of Future R&D Activities The Korean Exercise

This article summarizes and discusses major findings of the Korean Delphi. The Korean Delphi was first carried out on a large scale. The results of the Korean Delphi include the forecast time of realization and an evaluation of importance for about 1200 technological topics. The forecast time of realization was estimated and compared in both Korea and the world's leading countries. We also provide a comparison of the Delphi results among Korea, Japan, and Germany, with some topics in common in the areas of information, electronics, and communications technology. This study interprets the results of the Delphi and explores the future directions of R&D activities with relevance to the Korean Society.     

National Technology Foresight Activities Around the Globe: Resurrection and New Paradigms

This contribution summarizes recent experiences in government or national technology forecasting which are now often termed “foresight.” While the methodological tool kit changed from mathematical models to more qualitative scenarios or visions, the Delphi method has become the backbone of foresight projects. Recent national activities, being dealt with in this special issue, are compared in terms of their comprehensiveness, their science versus industry orientation, and their analytic versus action-oriented targets. Although some of these are ongoing, we can discern several new foresight paradigms. From the perspectives of sociology and political sciences, foresight elements seem to be the means of communication (or the “wiring up”) for the negotiating systems of the society. From an economics and management point of view, foresight is helpful for benchmarking and for initiating feedback processes between future demand and present day investment in research and development. From a cultural point of view, the resurrection of foresight in the 1990s seems to be related to growing globalization and at the same time the recognition of national or regional innovation systems. Finally, in terms of international affairs supranational foresight seems to become a new venture.     

专家对19世纪上半期德国交通政策的影响分析

19世纪上半期,德国的一批专家对政府的交通政策产生了较大的影响。他们给当时奋发向上的市民提供了社会舆论支持,同时他们自己又在更高的舞台上表演。他们在“是否采纳铁路作为交通工具”、“大技术体系”等方面进行了充分的讨论,给政府提供了富有建设性的意见,并由此创造了学者政治的模式。专家们并不谋求直接在政治上发展,而是把自己看成超党派的公众的良心;而政府听取他们的意见,则体现了政府尊重科学的明智之举。     

Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases

Short term forecasting was applied to 20 emerging technologies under the “Machine and Materials” category based on the Vision 2023 foresight study previously conducted for Turkey. This scientometric approach uses the most suitable keywords linked to the technology in question and determines the number of publications and patents in those fields for a given year. Database analysis of publications and patents in the previous 11 years indicates that while the majority of the top 20 technologies identified by the experts are indeed emerging (i.e. the number of research and/or patenting in these technologies is increasing), some of them have not actually attracted too much interest in the science and technology (S&T) community. Forecasts based on S-curves indicate steady growth in some of the selected technologies. There is a high correlation between the number of scientific publications and patents in most of the technologies investigated. The method is proposed as a simple and efficient tool to link national foresight efforts to international S&T activities and to obtain quantitative information for prioritized technologies that could be used for technology management and decision making for research funding and technology investment.     

‘Technology foresight towards 2020 in China’: the practice and its impacts

Technology foresight has attracted increasing attention from government and academia as well as industry since the 1990s. However, the impact of technology foresight on national strategic decision-making varies from country to country. This paper aims to introduce the ‘Technology Foresight towards 2020’ exercise in China, which has been conducted by a research group in the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The paper consists of five parts: (1) introduction; (2) the framework for technology foresight towards 2020 in China; (3) the methodology including scenario building for identifying technology demands and the method for processing and analysing the data from a Delphi survey; (4) the major results of a Delphi survey in the following four research fields: Information technology, Biotechnology, Energy technology, Material science and technology; and (5) the impact of the research on decision-making concerning science and technology development in China.     

The research strategy in management of technological innovation

The increasing importance of technology in the application world has imposed high demand on the research community for insightful and useful principles about “management of technological innovation” (MTI). This paper examines the academic legacy in terms of conceptual categories, causal relationships and taxonomy of relevant systems, and asserts from a system perspective that MTI as an applied science is still in its infancy.Based on methodological argument, this paper warns of the danger of hasty compromise of strategically important topics to “popular” definition of “researchability,” and suggests several research guidelines and approaches for this young interdisciplinary discipline:

1. (1)To explore new frontiers, use “proximate variables,” consider contextual factors and causation in broad terms, conceptualize “independently,” and pay more attention to case study method.

2. (2)To understand driving forces, be aware of practice, and focus on internal dynamics.

3. (3)To transcend complexity, adopt a hierarchical structure perspective and state-and-flow concept, and condense findings into configurations.

Finally, this paper urges the formation of an overall research strategy to accelerate the accumulation of MTI grounded knowledge.     

Participatory prognostics in Germany—developing citizen scenarios for the relationship between biomedicine and the economy in 2014

The rapid development of biomedicine demands a trustworthy, proactive regulatory regime that is able to manage progress with genuine regard for ethical, social and legal concerns. With its recent past of eugenics and euthanasia, Germany is particularly concerned with setting up a fair and transparent approach, able to respond quickly to scientific developments as well as societal concerns. This article reports on the development, implementation and evaluation of a citizen scenario workshop as a tool of participatory prognostics, integrating elements from participatory technology assessment and forecasting. In 7 days of highly structured work and expert support, 24 German participants developed four scenarios on “The Relationship of Biomedicine and the Economy in the Year 2014.” Results and evaluation both show that the process (1) leads to scenarios that provide a useful perspective beyond expert opinion; (2) enriches the public and political discourse; and (3) offers a social learning opportunity appreciated by nonprofessionals and experts alike. We are confident in recommending this technique as a useful addition to existing foresight and horizon scanning activities.     

On preferences for being self-employed

The concept of procedural utility assumes that agents not only receive utility from outcomes but also attach an independent value to the procedures that lead to these outcomes. This paper analyzes whether the preferences that underlie procedural utility are homogeneous using the case of independence at the workplace. I exploit the event of German reunification to assign preferences for independence to respondents without using data on occupational choice or directly reported procedural preferences. I find that the self-employed report higher job satisfaction than the employed, even after controlling for income and hours worked. However, there is a significant amount of heterogeneity in this effect: while “independent types” experience a large increase in job satisfaction from being self-employed, the most “hierarchical types” could even experience a decrease.     

The analysis of expert judgment

Expert judgment is a necessary component of technology assessment. But current methods for attempting to integrate expert judgment with social value judgments in the formation of public policy are inappropriate and ineffective. This article advocates the scientific analysis of experts' judgments. Such analysis produces quantitative, pictorial models of expert judgment, thereby providing an explicit and retraceable procedure for a) documenting and comparing reasons for differences in expert judgment, b) helping experts to resolve such differences, and c) conveying information to decision makers in a clear and useful fashion. The proposed approach provides an alternative to the ineffective method of public hearings and recently proposed adversarial approaches such as the “science court.” Two studies are described to illustrate this approach.     

Exploring the application of the Delphi method as a forecasting tool in Information Systems and Technologies research

The Delphi method has been used widely in clarifying decision-making based on the opinions of experts in all research areas. This study focuses on Information Systems and Information Technology (IS/IT) research area. Its aim is to explore the use of the Delphi method in topics related to IS/IT as a forecasting tool. A sizeable amount of research has been examined about IS/IT using the Delphi method. This work proposes a guideline for applying the Delphi method in IS/IT studies based on a literature review of high impact IS/IT papers that apply Delphi with a view to answering forecasting questions. This guideline defines the most relevant aspects which should be considered when applying this method. Previously, the authors conducted a literature review of 2502 articles from different research topics to obtain evidence about the diffusion of the Delphi method in IS/IT compared to other areas.     

Characteristics of technology transfer in business ventures: the case of Daejeon, Korea

This article explores the characteristics of venture business and entrepreneurs in Korea to (1) identify technology transfer activities, (2) analyze the differences between technology transfer in linear and nonlinear venture businesses, and (3) guide more effective venture business policy and strategy. This empirical assessment reveals that entrepreneurs have insightful evaluations about their resources and capacities as well as expectations with regard to functions and features of science parks and incubators. Respondents from “linear model”-based start-ups tend to be older and have higher education, employ more basic research and development (R&D) and have more R&D-oriented careers, and have more varied work experience than “nonlinear”-based start-ups. The functions and features of science parks and incubators were generally not considered a critical influence on start-ups nor on the growth of venture businesses. Accordingly, alternative venture-nurturing strategies are discussed as being key to accelerate venture businesses growth.