Alcohol-related crashes and alcohol availability in grass-roots communities

This paper employs a unique panel data from 111 small non-metropolitan incorporated cities in California during a 108 month period from January 1981 to December 1989 in order to analyse the effect of alcohol availability on highway safety. Negative binomial regression models are estimated which include alcohol licences per square mile as a measure of alcohol availability. Theoretically, the sign of the alcohol licence density is indeterminate as it reflects a trade-off of its effect on traffic exposure and on the time price alcohol. Among the findings, increases in the density of general alcohol licences for off-site (on-site) alcohol consumption are beneficial (detrimental) to highway safety whereas increasing the density of beer/wine licences have non-uniform effects. Additional findings important to municipal policymakers are that DUI arrests and increasing the price of alcohol reduce alcohol-related crashes.     

REPEAL OF PROHIBITION: A BENEFIT‐COST ANALYSIS

In spite of an estimated increase in annual alcohol‐related motor vehicle costs of $2.767 billion (1947 dollars), the net social benefit of repeal of alcohol Prohibition amounts to $432 million per annum in 1934–1937, about 0.33% of gross domestic product. Total benefits of $3.25 billion consist primarily of increased consumer and producer surplus, tax revenues, and reduced criminal violence costs. A Monte Carlo simulation shows the probability of negative net benefits is 16%. The estimated price elasticity of demand for spirits, beer, and wine are –.60, ?.56, and –.51 respectively, which is consistent with the modern literature. (JEL D61, I18, K420, I120)     

THE IMPACT OF LARGE CONTAINER BEER PURCHASES ON ALCOHOL‐RELATED FATAL VEHICLE ACCIDENTS

Using a fixed effect weighted least square model, we examine how changes in the share of beer purchases from large containers (>12 oz.) impact alcohol‐related fatal accidents. We find that, after holding beer purchases and overall alcohol‐consumption constant, an increase in total beer purchases from containers greater than the standard size of 12 oz. increases alcohol‐related fatal accidents. We confirm our results persist across several investigations of robustness, as well as the use of instrument variables methods. Outcomes suggest that policy makers should consider differential excise taxes for the purchase of larger than standard size beer containers. Such a policy would likely reduce the number of alcohol‐related fatal vehicle crashes and help to internalize the negative externalities associated with drunk driving. At the very minimum, these results suggest that individuals prone to dangerous levels of drunk driving are the consumers that most prefer large container size consumption. This is consistent with the idea that binge drinkers and beer drinkers are much more likely to drive while legally intoxicated. (JEL I18, K4)     

PROHIBITION VERSUS TAXATION: RECONSIDERING THE LEGAL DRINKING AGE

The legal drinking age targets a group at a high risk of alcohol-related problems. This paper argues that taxation could achieve the same benefits as the legal drinking age at a substantially lower social cost. Existing empirical research suggests that simultaneously lowering the legal age to 18 and taxing alcohol purchases at between 12 to 86 percent of the current price would achieve the same results as the current legal age. Levying a special teen tax only on young adults would minimize its social costs. Teen tax revenues between $564 million to $4.03 billion measure the net social gain of replacing the current prohibition on young adults' alcohol purchases with a taxation policy.     

Endogenously chosen travel costs and the travel cost model: an application to mountain biking at Moab,Utah

The travel cost model is frequently used to estimate net willingness to pay for recreation at remote sites by using the visitor's travel costs as a proxy for the price of recreation. However, some concern has been raised over the validity of using the visitor's stated travel costs as a proxy for price. This paper addresses some of these concerns, by examining the possible over-estimation of consumer surplus due to endogenously chosen travel costs. This paper extends past theoretical work for the linear model by developing a correction for endogenously chosen travel costs in more commonly used nonlinear models such as the Poisson or count data model. Also provided is the first empirical test of the presence of endogeneity and an estimate of the magnitude of the error from ignoring endogeneity in travel costs. After applying this test and the correction to data that was gathered for mountain biking at Moab, Utah the estimate of consumer surplus falls from US $153 to US $135, which is a 12% reduction.     

Legal access to alcohol and automobile accidents: Potential interactive effects of alcohol and drug consumption

The combination of drugged and drunk driving is an important policy topic as some states and countries have liberalized prohibitions on substance use to varying degrees. In this study, we analyze the effect of legal access to alcohol on suspected drug impaired accidents. We find that accidents with suspected drug impairment significantly increase when a driver gains legal access to alcohol at age 21. Our findings suggest that even if alcohol and drug consumption are substitutes, as much of the literature suggests, potential interactive effects may offset the reduction in decreased alcohol consumption from drugs.     

Alcohol consumption and alcohol advertising bans

The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the relationship between alcohol advertising bans and alcohol consumption. Most prior studies have found no effect of advertising on total alcohol consumption. A simple economic model is provided which explains these prior results. The data set used in this study is a pooled time series of data from 20 countries over 26 years. The empirical model is a simultaneous equations system which treats both alcohol consumption and alcohol advertising bans as endogenous. The primary conclusions of this study are that alcohol advertising bans decrease alcohol consumption and that alcohol consumption has a positive effect on the legislation of advertising bans. The results indicate that an increase of one ban could reduce alcohol consumption by 5% to 8%. The alcohol price elasticity is estimated at about 0.2. The results suggest that recent exogenous decreases in alcohol consumption will decrease the probability of enactment of new bans and undermine the continuance of existing bans. Canada, Denmark, New Zealand and Finland have recently rescinded alcohol advertising bans. Alcohol consumption in these countries may increase or decrease at a slower rate than would have occurred had advertising bans remained in place.     

The effect of sporting success and management failure on attendance demand in the Bundesliga: a revealed and stated preference travel cost approach

This study examines the private consumption benefits of sports attendance using revealed and stated preference data from 28 Football Bundesliga teams across three divisions. Survey respondents were presented with positive (sporting success) and negative (management failure) scenarios and asked for the number of game trips if each scenario occurred. The results of a pooled random effects Poisson model show that travel costs and ticket price have a significant negative effect on the number of home game trips. The weighted consumer surplus per game trip including travel costs and ticket prices is €345. Consumer surplus per game trip was found to change by €41 (first division) and €98 (second and third division) if the positive scenario occurred and by €39 if the negative scenario occurred.     

Energy demand in the transportation sector of Mexico

This paper report results of an analysis of the demand for energy in the Mexican transport sectors, focusing on the railroad, air transport and motor vehicle modes. The approach is an econometric one with emphasis placed on the structure for each mode. For two of the modes a two-stage approach is employed where in the first stage demands for services from the particular mode are modeled, and in the second stage demand is treated as a derived demand from these transport services. For the motor vehicle mode, gasoline demand is considered as the product of gasoline consumption per vehicle times the total number of vehicles, and then these components are related to economic and structural variables. Diesel demand of motor vehicles is modeled in a more reduced from approach. The principal finding is that changes in income play a more important role in affecting energy demand than do changes in energy prices, especially in the railroad and air transport sectors. For the gasoline and diesel fuel demand in the monitor vehicle sector, however, price is of substantial importance.     

The Economics of Law: Economic Imperialism in Negligence Law,No-Fault Insurance,Occupational Licensing and Criminology?

The aim is to examine the contribution which economic and quantitative analysis can make to a better understanding of the law. I concentrate on the common law action of negligence and how it is related to the optimal deterrence of accidents, rather than to the compensation of all accident victims. A critique is made of the New South Wales Law Reform Commission's proposal to prohibit negligence actions for motor vehicle accidents and to introduce a compulsory ‘no-fault’ scheme. An econometric analysis of new Zealand and Australian ‘no-fault’ schemes finds that the negligence system appears to have some deterrent effect on motor vehicle accidents.     

老年人旅游消费影响因素的实证研究——以洪山区为例

通常的研究认为,消费与收入有关,旅游消费也不例外。对洪山区老年旅游者进行问卷调查和实证分析,得到如下结论：影响老年人旅游消费的主要因素是个人旅游偏好和空余时间的安排;同时,老年人大都关注体力和健康因素,而对花费和经济因素则一般不太关注。最后,基于实证研究的结论对如何提高中国老年人旅游需求提出了增强旅游资源的宣传发展特色旅游、加大政府投入,完善基础设施,提高服务水平等建议。     

The empirical effects of competition on third‐degree price discrimination in the presence of arbitrage

Since Borenstein ( 1985 ) and Holmes ( 1989 ), a theoretical and empirical literature has emerged that examines the effects of competition on third‐degree price discrimination. Since transaction costs involved in conducting arbitrage are typically unobserved, empirical investigations in this area have largely been restricted to markets such as for air travel where arbitrage is difficult, if not impossible. Using an entirely novel dataset, this paper documents the effect of competition on price discrimination in the presence of arbitrage in the Canadian online sports betting market where prices for Canadian teams are higher than in the world market. I observe how the prices of Canadian teams change in real time in response to the presence of arbitrageurs that establish Canadian sportsbooks’ observable marginal opportunity costs. I exploit the existence of government betting outlets not subject to arbitrage to obtain reduced form counterfactual estimates of the extent to which competition affects price discrimination in the presence of arbitrage. In this new empirical environment, I find results consistent with the airline literature: competition reduces overall price dispersion and markups, but dispersion and markups shrink more for those in the “strong” market than the “weak” market.     

Travel patterns and environmental effects now and in the future:: implications of differences in energy consumption among socio-economic groups

Travel patterns among different socio-economic groups in Sweden are investigated. It is shown that elderly persons, persons with low incomes and women in general do not travel extensively. Middle-aged persons, persons with high incomes and men travel much farther. Cars are the dominant transportation mode for all population groups. Aeroplanes are used mostly by high-income earners and men, while public transportation is mostly used by young people and women. Energy consumption for the different travel patterns differs substantially. Men with high incomes consume the most energy, with 94 000 MJ during one year, while elderly women consume 12 000 MJ. When compared to a calculated sustainable level of energy consumption for travel, most population groups are in excess. The level for sustainable energy consumption is calculated based on an assumed global potential for renewable energy of 360 EJ per year, divided equally among the global population. A certain share of this energy potential is supposed to be used for travelling. A scenario for 2020 is presented in which vehicle energy efficiency has increased and travel patterns have changed from what they are today. Sustainability can only be reached when both travel patterns and vehicle technology have changed radically. Differences in energy consumption for travel due to age and gender are likely to remain in the future. Scientific knowledge from the social domains seems to be important for devising efficient strategies for a sustainable society. Current focus on policy measures has been mainly on technical issues.     

ALCOHOL PREVALENCE,ALCOHOL POLICIES,AND CHILD FATAL INJURY RATES FROM MOTOR VEHICLE CRASHES

In this study, we consider the effects of state alcohol policies on motor vehicle fatalities for children. While numerous studies have considered the effects of such policies on motor vehicle fatalities for the overall population, for teens, and for the elderly, their effects on fatalities among children in particular have not previously been studied. We use state‐level cross‐sectional time series data for 1982–2002. The dependent variable of interest is fatalities among child motor vehicle occupants (CMVO). Separate models are estimated for 0‐ to 4‐yr‐olds, 5‐ to 9‐yr‐olds, and 10‐ to 15‐yr‐olds, as well as for fatalities occurring during the day versus the night. We find that number of fatalities among CMVO is strongly correlated to alcohol use measured at the state level and that administrative license revocation policies and higher beer tax rates appear to consistently reduce such fatalities. For two of the three age groups, beer tax rates appear to reduce fatalities during the night rather than the day. However, zero tolerance and blood alcohol concentration limit laws do not seem to have any statistically significant effects on fatalities. (JEL I18, J13)     

旅游需求函数的研究

由于旅游区价格具有一定的刚性和稳定性，采用直接观察法不易得出旅游需求函数。文章通过对旅行成本法的研究，首次提出试用旅游复合成本的变化来替代旅游区价格的变化，综合考虑收入、时间的机会成本等因素，使用出游率和旅游复合成本2个指标，建立旅游需求函数，揭示旅游需求规律，探索出一种简易可行计算旅游需求函数的方法。     

Inflation,price dispersion and market integration through the lens of a monetary search model

Monetary search theory implies that the real effects of inflation via its impact on price dispersion depend on the level of search costs and, thus, on the level of market integration. For less integrated markets, the inflation–price dispersion nexus is predicted to be asymmetrically V-shaped which results in an optimal inflation rate above zero. For highly integrated markets with low search costs, however, the impact of inflation on price dispersion should only be small. Using price data of the European Union member states, this paper tests and confirms these predictions of monetary search theory.     

BINGE DRINKING IN COLLEGE: THE IMPACT OF PRICE, AVAILABILITY, AND ALCOHOL CONTROL POLICIES

This paper estimates the effects of beer prices, alcohol availability, and policies related to driving under the influence of alcohol on drinking and binge drinking among youths and young adults. Data are from a nationally representative survey of students in U.S. colleges and universities. Separate estimates are obtained for underage male and female students, as well as for older male and female students. The estimates indicate that the drinking practices of male college students are generally insensitive to the price of beer. However, underage drinking and binge drinking by female students do respond significantly to price, although both are relatively inelastic. The results also show that strong drunk driving policies targeting youths and young adults significantly reduce drinking and binge drinking by male students. Similarly, these policies reduce drinking among female college students but appear to have little impact on their binge drinking. Instead, the results indicate that many elements of campus life (including participation in a fraternity or sorority, living on campus, and the ready availability of alcoholic beverages) are among the most important determinants of drinking and binge drinking among college students.     

中国物价波动与经济增长关系研究——基于城乡居民消费差距视角的分析

物价波动与经济增长之间的关系是经济学传统的研究课题。本文在测量城乡居民消费差距的基础上,利用TARCH模型研究了物价波动对城乡居民消费差距的非对称影响,并从城乡居民消费差距的视角分析了物价波动对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:物价波动使得城乡居民消费差距的变化越来越小;物价波动与城乡居民消费差距之间呈负相关关系,当物价变动1%时,城乡居民消费差距反向变动0.579%;物价波动对经济增长有着负的直接影响;物价波动通过影响城乡居民消费差距进而对经济增长产生负的间接影响。     

Safety investments,behaviours and injury severity

This study investigates whether recreational boating safety investments and behaviours of current interest are determinants of boating injury severity, and if so, their effects. An ordered probit analysis of 1989–1993 boating accidents suggests that human capital investments in safety, in the form of operator boating experience and formal instruction, reduce both operator and passenger injury severity. Higher levels of operator (passenger) alcohol consumption increase operator (passenger) injury severity, but no relationship was found between operator alcohol consumption and passenger injury severity. At the time a trip is taken, wearing a flotation device has the most efficacious effect on both operator and passenger injury severity. In general, the results support regulatory policies aimed at increasing the use of personal flotation devices as well as reducing alcohol consumption.     

Light fuel demand and public policies in Brazil, 2003–2013

The main objective of this article is to evaluate determinants of demand for light fuels in Brazil between 2003 and 2013. Through a vector autoregression analysis, an effort was made to identify and quantify the impact of different economic variables and public policy measures adopted during this period on the surprising increase in energy consumption by Brazil’s light-vehicle fleet. The results suggest that demand for energy by the light-vehicle fleet was influenced by an increase in income, by a decrease in fuel prices associated with a policy designed to prevent increases in the price of gasoline from pushing the inflation rate up, by a higher availability of credit for buying vehicles, and by a drop in the real price of those goods, with emphasis on countercyclical measures to waive the tax on industrialized products levied on new vehicles during economic downturns in the automotive industry.