Modelling prices and the reputation of individual named wines

This article develops empirical models to assess the relation between the reputation of an individual named wine and its price. Unrestricted and polynomial distributed lag models are used to assess the impact of past expert quality ratings on the prices of Australian premium wines. Results point to the practical unimportance of current wine quality scores impacting prices and suggest that quality score lag effects up to six years may be important. The largest individual lagged impact of quality on price is estimated to occur at approximately two years, and prices are estimated to increase by more than 10% over six years for a one-point quality score increase. A procedure for identifying potential wine price bargains based on a comparison of price predictions from estimated wine reputation and current quality measures is illustrated. The implications of the findings for wine producers are also discussed.     

Knowledge Market Design: A Field Experiment at Google Answers

In a field experiment at Google Answers, we investigate the performance of price‐based online knowledge markets by systematically manipulating prices. Specifically, we study the effects of price, tip, and a reputation system on both an answerer's effort and answer quality by posting real reference questions from the Internet Public Library on Google Answers under different pricing schemes. We find that a higher price leads to a significantly longer, but not better, answer, while an answerer with a higher reputation provides significantly better answers. Our results highlight the limitation of monetary incentives and the importance of reputation systems in knowledge market design.     

国内外煤炭价格波动特征分析——基于GARCH模型

利用2005—2011年的澳洲BJ动力煤价格和秦皇岛大同优混煤(>6000大卡)价格的时间序列数据,采用GARCH模型分析方法,实证检验了澳洲BJ动力煤价格和秦皇岛大同优混煤(>6000大卡)价格的波动性特征。研究结果表明,澳洲BJ动力煤价格和秦皇岛大同优混煤(>6000大卡)价格表现出相同的市场特性,具有显著的GARCH效应与波动聚集性,波动衰减缓慢,不具有显著的非对称性波动。最后提出了相应的对策与建议。     

投资银行声誉机制有效性——执业质量与市场份额双重视角的研究

本文从“事后的”IPO折价、投行市场份额的增长和发行公司质量等多个角度检验了中国投资银行声誉机制的有效性。和以往的研究不同,本文从市场份额和执业质量两个维度衡量投资银行声誉。其中,投行执业质量用投行承销的IPO公司会计业绩“变脸”率来衡量。研究结果显示,尽管单纯考虑市场份额或执业质量时,这些变量对IPO发行折价均无显著影响,但若同时将两者纳入分析框架,并考虑其交互作用,投行声誉的作用就能显著表现出来:市场份额高且执业质量好的投行可以显著降低IPO发行折价,并且能够在未来获得更多数量以及更高质量的上市公司认可。     

High Price Strategy and Quality Signalling

I investigate a high price strategy by a durable‐goods producer for signalling the high quality of goods. It is assumed that two types of monopolists exist: high‐quality and low‐quality. The monopolist's type is assumed to be unknown to consumers in the first period. Before the beginning of the second period, a product reputation established in the past period enables consumers to recognize the real type of the monopolist. I show that there occurs a signalling equilibrium where the high‐quality type monopolist uses a high price strategy. An interaction between the new and old products peculiar to the durable‐goods markets plays an important role in the pricing strategy.     

可信性、价值认证和投资银行声誉机制

文章认为由于"机会主义"和"善意错误"的存在,致使投资银行在价值认证中面临"可信性"问题。文章利用C-F模型,探讨了投资银行声誉对解决"可信性"问题的意义,并通过分析投资银行声誉与发行企业质量、IPO抑价和承销费用之间的关系,发现投资银行声誉机制具有"信号显示"、"价值发现"和"补偿激励"等重要功能。由于没有很好地解决可信性问题,投资银行声誉机制的这些功能在我国基本不存在,因此我国投资银行很难发挥价值认证作用,这是我国证券发行市场有效性不足的一个重要原因。     

信誉的价值:以网上拍卖交易为例

本文使用网上拍卖交易数据,就卖者信誉对市场交易的影响进行了实证研究。我们发现,卖者的信誉评价一方面影响物品成交的价格,另一方面还对物品拍卖成功的概率有着显著的正面影响;但相对来说,卖者的信誉评价对后者的效果比对前者要更显著。这是本文的主要发现。该结果验证了在一个没有政府干预、近乎自由放任的“虚拟”市场上信誉机制的积极作用。     

谁能成为明星CEO* ——管理者声誉的来源及影响

在中国,企业管理者为获取更丰厚的报酬和更好的职业生涯不只是通过企业的良好经营,同时很大一部分管理者也积极建立与政府的密切联系。本文从管理者政治关联的独特视角出发,研究了上市公司管理者声誉来源及其对企业短期股价和长期经营绩效的影响。基于2005-2012年上市公司的面板数据,本文采用倾向评分匹配的方法,有效解决了样本“内生性”问题。本文研究发现,国有企业管理者声誉的获取可能主要依赖于其政治关联的支持,而民营企业管理者声誉的取得可能主要依靠企业自身良好的经营绩效;同时管理者声誉在短期内对企业股价有显著的负向影响,但对企业的长期经营绩效确有显著的促进作用。本文为我国经理人劳动力市场的完善及国有企业市场化改革提供了新的经验证据。     

我国股票市场与经济增长的长期关系——基于协整的实证研究

本文选择1992—2007年的GDP增长率和上证综合指数作为我国股票市场价格指数与我国经济增长关系的研究依据,运用协整分析方法,实证研究了两者之间的长期关系。研究发现:中国的股票市场与经济增长之间不存在协整关系,这说明中国股票市场的发育还不成熟,某种程度上,股票市场还不具备促进经济增长的作用。     

区域旅游商品的营销策略

实施科学而合理的区域旅游商品营销策略对提高其知名度和美誉度、扩大其市场份额、实现利润的最大化起着重要作用,区域旅游商品的营销策略包括确定目标市场、制定合理价格、选择有效促销方式、创新销售模式、创建商品品牌及市场信息反馈等。     

Price transmission and local market power: empirical evidence from the Austrian gasoline market

We analyse the impact of local market power on price margins and different dimensions of price adjustment dynamics (speed and asymmetry of price transmission) using data for a large number of individual gasoline stations in Austria. Specific attention is paid to threshold effects in price adjustment. Our results clearly suggest that the speed of price transmission between the Brent crude oil index and retail diesel prices is higher in a more competitive environment. While evidence on the relationship between local market power and asymmetries in the speed of price adjustment is mixed, our findings regarding asymmetries in price thresholds are clear: in regions where competition from neighbouring rivals is weak and/or consumers’ price elasticity of demand is low (stations located on the highway), positive thresholds significantly exceed negative ones, which corresponds to the ‘rockets and feathers phenomenon’. As expected, we observe that prices are lower in more competitive local markets.     

PRODUCT QUALITY,REPUTATION, AND MARKET STRUCTURE*

In a repeated game in which firms simultaneously choose price and product quality, but quality is observed only after consumption takes place, equilibria exhibiting high quality may exist in oligopoly markets even when the low‐quality one is a unique equilibrium outcome in monopoly and competitive markets. Oligopolists can sustain high quality through the threat of both a loss of reputation and a breakdown in tacit collusion. While we abstract from other reasons that market structure might affect product quality, we show that the inverted‐U shaped relationship between feasible quality and market structure is robust to several generalizations of the model.     

Price or Quantity Competition? Oligopolistic Structures in International Commodity Markets

International commodity markets may be characterized by price or quantity competition and by product differentiation. As an illustration, this paper presents a set of models of the Japanese market for imported beef. The models are evaluated using a non-nested econometric test. The one which best fits the data is a Stackelberg model with price leadership by Australia. This result provides evidence on the explicit nature of the game being played by exporters, unlike the applied conjectural variations approach which provides only an index of how competitive the market is.     

行业收益、国际航运业IPO与船舶融资选择——基于1984～2007年数据分析

在阐述行业收益差异基础上分析影响航运股权融资因素,针对航运企业IPO的不同表现特征选取了1984～2007年间,在主板证券交易所首次发行股票的143家全球航运企业,通过计算超常持有期收益率(BHAR)和累计超常收益率(CAR),分析其短期与长期价格表现。认为航运企业首次公开发行抑价与公司年龄、上市所在交易所的声誉和发行期间市场行情正相关,与承销商声誉负相关;从长期来看,航运企业首次公开发行五个月后表现欠佳。希望通过研究某些体制因素如何影响航运企业IPO抑价,以期对船舶融资选择提供相关建议。     

Do equity index industry groups improve forecasts of inflation and production? A US analysis

This study develops a new financial market indicator, which may be a useful addition to analysing real activity in the US. By taking the ratio of the price return of equity industry groups of the S&P 500 over a benchmark industry group, in this case taken to be the Utilities industry group, an indicator is created which represents the price return performance specific to each individual industry. We then perform recursive pseudo out-of-sample bivariate forecasts of future changes in the Industrial Production Index (IPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3-month, 6-month and 12-month horizons using each of the indicators and compare results against an AR forecast. The results of the bivariate forecasts using a number of the indicators produce better forecasts of changes in the IPI and are also significant for causality, both for the full sample period and when tested recursively. Bivariate forecasts of changes to the CPI, however, do not improve upon the AR forecasts.     

Advertising and pricing policies in the equine breeding industry or sex and the single stallion

A unique aspect of the equine breeding industry is the way in which the current year's demand for stud services depends on the previous year's production levels. In a monopolistically competitive market, product differentiation and product promotion and advertisement are important aspects of industry conduct. A stallion's reputation and therefore demand for his services depend on the stallion owner's ability to differentiate the product.

The price a stallion owner charges depends on the quality of the stud himself, and also on the quality of his offspring. The producer's output (foals) become advertisements for the stallion when they are raced, shown, etc. They also can become substitutes for the stallion, since they are an alternative source of the stallion's genes. Stallion owners are in the special position that they need to prove their stallion's ability to sire quality offspring, while bearing in mind they are producing possible substitutes. Outstanding offspring will generate demand for the parent's services if they are successfully shown, raced, etc. Conversely, progeny who compete unsuccessfully will decrease demand by contributing to a poor reputation for themselves, their breeder and their sire. But, outstanding individuals eventually become breeding stock and therefore offer an alternative source for the ‘winning genes’.

This intergenerational dependence has led to pricing policies and practices in the equine breeding industry which have important implications. Common practices include: incentives to compete, rebates for gelding male offspring, price discrimination in favour or quality mares and limited bookings. These policies illustrate aspects of industry conduct commonly discussed in industrial organization literature such as first-degree price discrimination, non-linear pricing and non-price competition. The use of artificial insemination and other new breeding technologies and thus the potential for a stallion to breed larger numbers of mares, further compounds the extent and results of such practices.

This paper investigates pricing policies in the equine breeding industry, using a case study approach. A model of indsutry pricing policies is developed and tested using data for American Quarter Horses.     

On inferring individual behaviour from market behaviour in a predetermined quantities model

This article develops the theoretical basis of individual behaviour recovered from market behaviour in a predetermined quantities model. As applied economists argue, an inverse demand system may be empirically sound within the framework of classical demand theory. However, it should not lead to the conclusion that the market responses for changes in quantity should be used to see welfare effects instead of the individual responses by price changes as far as the market is concerned. It shows theoretically and empirically how individual responses can be recovered from market responses in a predetermined quantities model. It suggests that the fundamental results of this article should be used on interpreting empirical results from the predetermined quantities models.     

Measuring the effectiveness of cost and price competitiveness in external rebalancing of euro area countries: What do alternative HCIs tell us?

This study examines the marginal effects of traditional determinants of exports and imports with a focus on the role of price competitiveness in restoring external balances in the euro area. It is a first attempt to compare marginal effects of various harmonised competitiveness indicators (HCIs) on both exports and imports of both goods and services across individual euro area countries. We find evidence that HCIs based on broader cost and price measures have a larger marginal effect (with some exceptions) on exports of goods. Exports of services are sensitive to HCIs in big euro area countries and Slovakia, where exports of services are also found more sensitive to competitiveness indicators based on broader price measures. Imports of goods and imports of services are quite insensitive to changes in relative prices. Finally, in some cases measures of fit indicate that a large unexplained residual part is present, implying that other non-price related factors might play an important role in driving foreign trade and policies aimed at enhancing the quality of goods traded are warranted.     

Simple Reputation Systems*

We develop a model of simple “reputation systems” that monitor and publish information about the behavior of sellers in a search market with asymmetric information. The reputations created influence the equilibrium search patterns of buyers and thus provide for market‐based “punishment” of bad behavior. We show that a reputation system that rewards honesty can enhance welfare by allowing good sellers to truthfully signal their type. However, the same system can be prone to strategic manipulation by sellers who always have low‐quality products. In that case, we show that an alternative system which assigns reputations based on product quality rather than honesty can be superior.     

Micro Price Dynamics during Japan's Lost Decades

We study micro price dynamics and their macroeconomic implications using daily scanner data from 1988 to 2013. We provide five facts. First, posted prices in Japan are ten times as flexible as those in the US scanner data. Second, regular prices are almost as flexible as those in the USA and Euro area. Third, the heterogeneity of frequency and size of price change across products is sizable and maintained throughout the sample period. Fourth, during Japan's lost decades, temporary sales have played an increasingly important role in households' consumption expenditure. Fifth, the frequency of upward regular price revisions and the frequency of sales are significantly correlated with the macroeconomic environment, in particular indicators associated with a labor market, while other components of price changes are not.