Domestic fire risk: a narrative review of social science literature and implications for further research

In this paper, we make the case for more social science research into fire incidents and fire-related risk behaviour. Unlike other vulnerabilities, such as crime, illness or risk-associated activities such as smoking, or accident avoidance, remarkably little research has focused on this area. This is perhaps surprising given the propensity for fire, its emotional, social and economic impacts, and evidence that fires and fire victims are not equally distributed across socio-demographic or geographical domains. In making our case, we outline: recent numbers and trends in incidents in the UK, focusing on domestic incidents and recent policy developments affecting fire and rescue services. Next, we review the social-science based literature on fire incidents, suggesting that while this offers useful insight, much more needs to be done to develop a rigorous evidence base. While we would not want to dismiss or downplay existing social science contributions, our contention is that a considerable number of opportunities exist for further work in this area. Consequently, we propose a number of ways in which popular ideas about risk theory can be applied to a domestic fire context and raise a number of questions that social scientists are well positioned to contribute to an interdisciplinary understanding of domestic fire incidents and associated risks.     

Managing unintentional dwelling fire risk

In this paper, we examine the management of unintentional dwelling fire risk through the development of a geographical information system (GIS) for dwelling fire prevention support based upon an 18-month case study in a UK fire and rescue service. Previous research into causal factors in unintentional dwelling fire incidents was used to guide the development of a multiple linear regression risk model for dwelling fire incidents that was the basis of the GIS developed. The GIS provided a more detailed analysis of unintentional dwelling fire risk factors, and enabled more targeted fire prevention activities for the identified at-risk social groups.     

Experience and the unexpected: risk and mitigation issues for operating underground storage silos for coal-fired power plant

Observed autoignition events and extinguishing the resulting smouldering fires in an underground storage system of a coal-fired power plant have provided insight into the array of contributing variables, and some experience on quantifying the risk with alternative scenarios of event initiation, progress and potential mitigation. Although the first attempts to quantify the risk suggest high sensitivity to the sequence of action taken after fire alarm, and no similar storage sites really exist, some recommended preventive, corrective and other mitigating activities can be at least partly defined and improved by using the cumulative experience and parallel efforts in other closed or underground storage sites. However, there are also so-called black (or at least grey) swans: unexpected events for which the facility may be poorly prepared for. In the case of the underground storage silos, such an event was experienced when incoming cold coal during a harsh winter season froze the sewer system that normally protects the stored coal from seepage water. With blocked normal bypass, the seepage water found its way to the coal silos and created large clumps of icy coal that blocked the coal conveyors. Although freezing weather is not unusual at high-latitude power plants, the common methods to combat freezing of coal are mainly useful for open storage sites and above-ground transport. Options for mitigation are discussed, as well as the event chain leading to an event that had never previously occurred. The case is discussed from the point of view of options to prepare for rare or unforeseen events.     

Extending composite loss models using a general framework of advanced computational tools

ABSTRACT

Composite models have a long history in actuarial science because they provide a flexible method of curve-fitting for heavy-tailed insurance losses. The ongoing research in this area continuously suggests methodological improvements for existing composite models and considers new composite models. A number of different composite models have been previously proposed in the literature to fit the popular data set related to Danish fire losses. This paper provides the most comprehensive analysis of composite loss models on the Danish fire losses data set to date by evaluating 256 composite models derived from 16 parametric distributions that are commonly used in actuarial science. If not suitably addressed, inevitable computational challenges are encountered when estimating these composite models that may lead to sub-optimal solutions. General implementation strategies are developed for parameter estimation in order to arrive at an automatic way to reach a viable solution, regardless of the specific head and/or tail distributions specified. The results lead to an identification of new well-fitting composite models and provide valuable insights into the selection of certain composite models for which the tail-evaluation measures can be useful in making risk management decisions.     

Home Fire Safety Checks in New South Wales: an economic evaluation of the pilot program

Traumatic events such as fire can result in fatality, injury, and loss of property; even a minor fire can interrupt the normal flow of people’s lives. During the years 2009–2013, urban and regional New South Wales (NSW) experienced an annual average of 4329 residential structural fires with 593 injuries and 22 fatalities at an annual cost of $656 million dollars. In 2014, Fire and Rescue NSW piloted a program called Home Fire Safety Checks (HFSC), aimed at high-risk households. In total, 228 homes in 8 suburbs received safety checks, including having smoke alarms installed, having batteries changed in smoke alarms, and being provided with fire blankets and fire safety information. The pilot study design enabled detailed economic evaluation of the program, including both development costs and ongoing costs for a full roll-out. Analysis of the cost of fire within NSW, combined with measurements of the success of similar programs internationally, demonstrates the program’s cost effectiveness. Savings per dollar spent exceed $12 if the program includes 1% of high-risk homes and obtains a 0.75% reduction in number of fires. These results demonstrate that a full roll-out of the HFSC program warrants ongoing funding. External factors affecting program delivery include community acceptance and willingness to participate in the program, particularly very high-risk individuals, and ongoing behavioral change. In addition, HFSC faces the same ongoing funding challenges other preventative community programs face in a period of tightening state budgets.     

中国银行业经济资本管理的实施路径——从巴塞尔新资本协议获得的启示

经济资本是加强商业银行内部资本管理和风险管理的重要手段。借助经济资本和其他基于风险的管理工具，金融机构可以对其面临的风险进行量化，计算应对这些风险所需的资本及得出根据实际风险进行调整后的收益。对大多数国内银行而言，经济资本的应用已经落后于其他先进国家，本文试图从新资本协议IRB方法的基本思路入手，提出国内银行业在现有条件下提升经济资本计量水平的解决方案。并提出在目前条件下，为实现有效资本管理的最终目标，要尽快开发关键风险参数的量化模型，加强资本管理IT系统建设以及建立资本计划的制定和实施程序。     

中国银行业经济资本管理的实施路径——从巴塞尔新资本协议获得的启示

经济资本是加强商业银行内部资本管理和风险管理的重要手段.借助经济资本和其他基于风险的管理工具,金融机构可以对其面临的风险进行量化,计算应对这些风险所需的资本及得出根据实际风险进行调整后的收益.对大多数国内银行而言,经济资本的应用已经落后于其他先进国家,本文试图从新资本协议IRB方法的基本思路入手,提出国内银行业在现有条件下提升经济资本计量水平的解决方案.并提出在目前条件下,为实现有效资本管理的最终目标,要尽快开发关键风险参数的量化模型,加强资本管理IT系统建设以及建立资本计划的制定和实施程序.     

我国森林火灾保险的风险评估与区划

为实现森林保险的可持续经营,必须对实际森林灾害风险大小进行测评,依据科学的理论和方法合理划分风险区域,从而为实施保险费率分区和差异化补贴政策奠定基础。通过选取并量化森林火灾保险的风险区划指标,采用因子和聚类分析法,对我国省级区域的森林火灾风险等级进行划分,并据此提出促进森林火灾保险发展的对策建议。     

What counts as a reasonable extent? – a systems approach for understanding fire safety in Sweden

Swedish legislation requires that any owner or user of a building maintain a reasonable level of fire protection measures to ensure the safety of all people located in the building. If a building, in the wake of a fire, in court is determined not to have had a reasonable fire protection, the blame will likewise be assigned to the building owner or user. Using the perspective of risk governance, this study aims at analysing how regulation and stakeholders interact to maintain a specific level of fire protection in hotels. The focus is on identifying problems and frictions that have emerged from the complex relationships, and differences of interests, between the different stakeholders. Based on a stakeholder analysis, 11 respondents were selected for an interview study. The main problems identified in the analysis are that there are ambiguities for the individual hotel owner to know whether her or his fire protection measures are reasonable according to the law, that the system has emerged without clear political goals, problems related to the process of local supervision, that the ambiguous situation gives rise to opportunities of other stakeholders to claim the definition of what counts as a reasonable extent, and the ethical problems associated with convicting a single individual for failure in a complex multi-actor system.     

Capturing how individuals perceive genetic risk information: a phenomenological perspective

The prevailing scientific approach to genetic risk information centres around communication of risk in terms of numerical probabilities. However, it is well known that individuals have difficulties in understanding and making sense of this information in their own lives. There is, accordingly, a need to investigate whether any methodologies in psychological research may shed light on how individuals perceive genetic risk information within their specific contexts of family history, personal relationships, lifestyles and future plans. To explore whether hermeneutic phenomenology and methodology may offer a deeper understanding of an individual’s perception of having a hereditary predisposition, we conducted a literature search. We found that Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis may be a fruitful approach to an individual’s lived experiential world. The studies analysed showed how individuals interpret information about genetic risk in the light of their own beliefs about the multiple causes of illness, patterns of heredity and observable risk factors in their families. People’s understanding of their experience is derived from an intricate interconnectedness with others that arises in the context of a world shaped in equal measure by language and culture, on the one hand, and bodies and objects on the other.     

Risk aversion vs. individualism: what drives risk taking in household finance?

Despite a considerable premium on equity with respect to risk-free assets, many households do not own stocks. We ask why the prevalence of stockholding is so limited. We focus on individuals’ attitudes toward risk and identify relevant factors that affect the willingness to take financial risks. Our empirical evidence contradicts standard portfolio theory, as it does not indicate a significant relationship between risk aversion and financial risk taking. However, our analysis supports the behavioral view that psychological factors rooted in national culture affect portfolio choice. Individualism, which is linked to overconfidence and overoptimism, has a significantly positive effect on financial risk taking. In microdata from Germany and Singapore, as well as in cross-country data, we find evidence consistent with low levels of individualism being an important factor in explaining the limited participation puzzle.     

An exploration of alcohol-related fire incidences

In this paper we examine an operational research project concerning the analysis of the characteristics of alcohol-related fire instances attended by a UK Fire and Rescue Service in the North West region of England and the development of a geographical information system for fire prevention support. The research project examined the circumstances of alcohol-related fires, their geographical distribution and the socio-economic characteristics of such fire incidences within the region studied, and also involved the design and implementation of a geographical information system for supporting prevention of such fires. Overall, it was found that cooking fires involving ‘harmful’ or ‘hazardous’ levels of alcohol consumption were most likely to be found amongst younger urban residents living in high levels of deprivation, students living in city centre locations and young families with high benefit need within the region studied.     

中国境外投资风险及其防范研究

实施“走出去”战略既是企业的微观投资行为也是政府的宏观管理问题,境外投资比国内投资面临的风险更大。因此,要防范境外投资风险更需要政府的支持,一方面通过建立境外投资协调机制对境外投资予以监管和保护;另一方面通过构建境外投资风险预警系统,加强境外投资风险的识别和预控。     

Visualizing risk: using participatory photography to explore individuals’ sense-making of risk

Although the field of risk research is increasingly alert to new theoretical and empirical perspectives, it is still the case that few studies take a visual approach, despite its obvious worth in capturing people’s experiences of everyday life. This paper considers how a visual approach can be used to deepen our knowledge of sense-making of risk, particularly young people’s views on risk. It presents empirical findings from a study that uses participatory photography to capture what individuals define as serious risks in everyday life and how these risks are expressed (722 participants in Sweden, aged 5–33, mostly children or adolescents). The conclusion is that focusing on stories embedded in images independently contributes new knowledge about how the individual makes sense of risk in everyday life, and especially that visual methods of data collection and analysis illuminate how individual sense-making of risk is intertwined with other aspects of meaning-making in everyday life. In other words, it is time for a visual turn in risk research.     

Perceptions of pre-service teachers on seismic risk and their implications for science education: a comparative study between Spain and Portugal

Abstract

This study investigated the importance given by two groups of pre-service teachers of primary education from Spain and Portugal to seismic risk in a framework of different natural risks, both in personal terms and as future teachers. A questionnaire was used for data collection. Some questions about the seismic phenomenon were also included. The sample groups consisted of 110 students from an institution in Spain and 121 from one in Portugal. Both institutions are in cities affected by the historic Lisbon earthquake of 1755. The results showed that the risk of forest fire was the first choice for classroom study in both cases. The Spanish group was also more focused on the importance of other risks like flood and drought. The Portuguese group showed a greater concern with seismic risk, frequently referring to their own historic earthquake of 1755. A few gaps in knowledge concerning earthquake prediction and comparing seismic risk in different regions of their own countries were also found. In accordance with the results, it is suggested that training courses for primary school teachers should include Disaster Risk Education in Science Education for a better understanding of the impact of various hazards and a greater concern with seismic risk due to its particular features, especially in regions where the seismic pattern is characterized by long seismic cycles with major earthquake episodes.     

Reasoning about safety management policy in everyday terms: a pilot study in citizen engagement for the UK railway industry

This paper reports on a pilot study in citizen engagement which formed part of a broader stakeholder engagement and consultation programme addressing safety decision‐making for UK rail industry activities. In addition to developing tools to support engagement initiatives, the study was concerned specifically with investigating everyday lay notions of what is a ‘reasonable’ basis for establishing safety. In view of the technical complexity of this issue, the exercise therefore presented an important methodological challenge: how to ‘translate’ specialised economic and legal issues in such a way that lay citizens were able to grasp, and reason about, these issues in an informed and considered way. The engagement exercise worked well in terms of its capacity to promote such a process of informed consideration, and in being ‘user friendly’ for participants. Despite the exercise involving a relatively small number of discussion group meetings, the quality and depth of the evidence collected allows some cautious provisional conclusions to be drawn regarding lay sensibilities concerning certain technical aspects of rail safety management.     

A case study demonstrates a democratic methodology for making risk-based decisions

Abstract

Risk is a subjective notion allowing the boundaries between the role of a risk practitioner and a decision-maker to become blurred. A belief that the public misunderstands risk and the need to control the risk assessment process are two barriers to effective engagement. A lack of engagement and the ability to enable citizens to decide their own future can contribute to the controversy we see in important public debates. In our study, we surveyed four stakeholder groups in the New Zealand to determine how they each rated the risks and benefits of a case study on the three biophysical impacts of the economy, environment and human health. Our survey methodology incorporated a continuous scale along three axes and this design enabled costs and benefits to be traded-off between individuals, giving them a representative voice. We used these results to investigate whether or not it would be feasible to use such an approach to make decisions. Our results indicate that public decision-making is possible, which in this case broadly reflected agreement between the public and the official decision. Such an approach holds promise for expanding the role of public engagement and input into the risk assessment process.     

Risk and adventure education

Fire, an ever present hazard in Australia, causes approximately 100 fatalities and over 3000 injuries per annum. Significant resources are allocated to mitigate the risk. In this study, we estimate the total cost of fire in Australia for 2005 at AUD$12,000 million or 1.3% of GDP. Comparable studies in the UK, USA, Canada, Denmark and New Zealand are reviewed and show that the cost in these countries ranges between 0.8 and 2% of GDP. Breaking the Australian total down into its component parts, we find that 57% relates to costs in anticipation of fire, 29% for response activities and that the remaining 14% results from the consequences of fire. This estimate shows that the investment in mitigation (86% of the total costs) is over five times the consequences (14%) and raises questions as to whether the current system adopted in Australia is economically efficient.     

Investigating explanatory theories on laypeople’s risk perception of personal economic collapse in a bank crisis – the Cyprus case

We investigate the explanatory power of decision, psychometric, and trust theory to describe laypeople’s risk perception of personal economic collapse in a bank crisis. The aim of this investigation is to improve the understanding of the effects of national initiatives for crisis fighting taken to prevent systemic risk. Using a stratified sample of 738 Cypriote citizens, we conducted an investigation in Cyprus in the spring of 2013 when the country was facing a bank crisis. At that point in time, the Cypriote Government had imposed capital controls to prevent a bank run. We find that decision theory variables alone have low explanatory value on laypeople’s risk perception, and that laypeople’s risk perception in this situation is affected primarily by psychometric variables. Further, confidence in one’s own bank also explains risk perception. Our findings contribute novel knowledge about risk perceptions in a financial crisis, with practical crisis management implications for regulators.