Managing unintentional dwelling fire risk

In this paper, we examine the management of unintentional dwelling fire risk through the development of a geographical information system (GIS) for dwelling fire prevention support based upon an 18-month case study in a UK fire and rescue service. Previous research into causal factors in unintentional dwelling fire incidents was used to guide the development of a multiple linear regression risk model for dwelling fire incidents that was the basis of the GIS developed. The GIS provided a more detailed analysis of unintentional dwelling fire risk factors, and enabled more targeted fire prevention activities for the identified at-risk social groups.     

Owning and testing smoke alarms: findings from a qualitative study

Reducing injury and death in house fires is an important public health intervention activity with the presence of an operating smoke alarm widely considered an important way of reducing harm from fire. Yet despite a number of initiatives and fire-safety campaigns, a number of households at greater risk of domestic fire fail to have a functioning alarm. This paper provides empirical insight into everyday experiences of owning, maintaining and testing smoke alarms among a purposive sample of individuals identified as being less likely to own a functioning smoke alarm. Analysis from focus group data identifies a number of reasons why individuals may not own or test an alarm, and provides new insight into how fire risk is understood in the context of a range of competing, and potentially more prominent, individual and household risks. We suggest that while initiatives that aim to reduce fire injury and death should be continued, their success, and indeed future research on fire risk, should pay attention to the mundane and everyday contexts within which individuals currently rarely reflect on their risk of experiencing a domestic fire.     

Emerging risk of autoignition and fire in underground coal storage

The risk and prevention of autoignition in underground coal storage facilities are reviewed in the light of the recent incidents of smouldering fires. Also, the opportunities are considered on the efficiency of the alternatives to prevent and extinguish closed-space fires. The complexities in avoiding and extinguishing underground fires are highlighted in the case example, describing the observations and outcome of a smouldering coal fire in the storage. The principles of self-heating and most critical factors in spontaneous combustion such as the condition and quality of coal are fairly well known, but usually only provide partial help in fire prevention. The documented cases and the case example suggest that nitrogen injection can be useful for extinguishing controllable fires. Three-phase foams and oxygen-displacing exhaust gases appear preferable against uncontrolled fires, particularly if access to the fire area is limited or impossible. Otherwise, efficient fire extinction during power plant operation can be challenging, as any air ingress tends to feed the fire and results in losses of the extinguishing agent and the heating value of coal. Methods and indicators for detecting and predicting the ignition are discussed, and improvements are suggested to enhance the storage and plant availability.     

Extending composite loss models using a general framework of advanced computational tools

ABSTRACT

Composite models have a long history in actuarial science because they provide a flexible method of curve-fitting for heavy-tailed insurance losses. The ongoing research in this area continuously suggests methodological improvements for existing composite models and considers new composite models. A number of different composite models have been previously proposed in the literature to fit the popular data set related to Danish fire losses. This paper provides the most comprehensive analysis of composite loss models on the Danish fire losses data set to date by evaluating 256 composite models derived from 16 parametric distributions that are commonly used in actuarial science. If not suitably addressed, inevitable computational challenges are encountered when estimating these composite models that may lead to sub-optimal solutions. General implementation strategies are developed for parameter estimation in order to arrive at an automatic way to reach a viable solution, regardless of the specific head and/or tail distributions specified. The results lead to an identification of new well-fitting composite models and provide valuable insights into the selection of certain composite models for which the tail-evaluation measures can be useful in making risk management decisions.     

An exploration of alcohol-related fire incidences

In this paper we examine an operational research project concerning the analysis of the characteristics of alcohol-related fire instances attended by a UK Fire and Rescue Service in the North West region of England and the development of a geographical information system for fire prevention support. The research project examined the circumstances of alcohol-related fires, their geographical distribution and the socio-economic characteristics of such fire incidences within the region studied, and also involved the design and implementation of a geographical information system for supporting prevention of such fires. Overall, it was found that cooking fires involving ‘harmful’ or ‘hazardous’ levels of alcohol consumption were most likely to be found amongst younger urban residents living in high levels of deprivation, students living in city centre locations and young families with high benefit need within the region studied.     

Cross‐Border Auction Cycle Effects of Sovereign Bond Issuance in the Euro Area

We provide evidence for the euro area of spillovers from foreign public debt auctions into domestic secondary‐market auction cycles. We also confirm existing evidence of such spillovers from domestic issues into the domestic secondary market. Consistent with a theory of primary dealers’ limited risk‐bearing capacity, we find that auction cycles from domestic issues are stronger during the recent crisis period, whereas cross‐border effects are stronger in the precrisis period, but this evidence is not strong. This finding likely reflects the opposing effects of reduced sovereign bond market integration during the crisis and higher yield covariances caused by more market volatility.     

Disclosure responses to mining accidents: South African evidence

Mining activities generate significant social concerns in terms of employee safety and stakeholder scrutiny has increased considerably in recent years. Social and environmental accounting research is largely dedicated to environmental issues and the study of other components of social accounting is limited. This study examines safety disclosures in the annual reports, sustainability reports, and reactive corporate press releases of South African mining organisations following two major mining accidents occurring at Harmony Gold and Gold Fields’ mines. Results show that organisations react to perceived legitimacy threats through increased safety disclosures. The entire mining industry evidences an increase in disclosure levels after the incidents, suggesting that organisations do respond to increased stakeholder scrutiny threatening their legitimacy. Furthermore, our results provide evidence of an association between safety disclosure levels and firm size, social performance, risk, and number of fatalities, while the media attention devoted to mining accidents appears to be unrelated to safety disclosure levels. It is possible that stakeholder pressure, which motivates corporate social disclosures according to legitimacy and stakeholder theories, consists of various factors, which combined form the motivation to report. Media attention, therefore, cannot be considered in isolation as a driver of disclosure. Rather, a combination of variables such as size, social responsibility performance, number of fatalities, risk, and media attention could serve as a proxy for social pressure.     

Public sector risk managers and spending cuts: mitigating risks

This paper reports case study research, the results of which are used to consider whether councils have recognised the potentially substantially increased social risks they may create as they seek to reduce their spending in line with the UK Government’s programme of public sector austerity. It discusses the conceptual shift in the public sector risk management literature towards social risk management (SRM), presents empirical evidence of social risks and considers the approach to SRM developed by other organisations. It finds no evidence of SRM within the case study authorities and so advocates a shift in the public sector risk management culture from a preoccupation with defensive-institutional risk management practices to a more proactive social dimension. In so doing, it discusses the goals of SRM, the constraints limiting their achievement, metrics for measuring social risk, tools for mitigating social risk and the problems faced when operationalising SRM.     

Identification of appropriate risk analysis techniques for railway turnout systems

The construction of railway turnout entails a complex geometry and multi-disciplinary engineering science, which makes it one of the most critical railway infrastructures. As such, these characteristics pose various risks in rail operation. A considerable number of derailment incidents at the turnouts are reported annually worldwide. Not only do these incidents cause operational downtime and financial loss, they also give rise to casualties and sometimes loss of life. One of the fundamental reasons for this may well be the fact that the railway industry pays little attention to the risk elements of railway turnouts. The paper provides an integrated approach of how to deal with the many different risks arising from various sources in railway turnout systems by suitably identifying the multi-disciplinary risk analysis methods for the complex systems. In order to do so, available open literatures are critically analysed by virtue of comparison, industry experiences and deductions. As a result, various qualitative- and quantitative-based risk analysis methods are proposed to fully understand a number of technical phenomena, e.g. ageing, degradation and signalling faults, in a railway turnout system.     

Reliability rating and reflective questioning: a case study of extended review on Australia's risk assessment of Bt cotton

The governance of emerging technologies is frequently constructed around risk assessment processes. However, when risk assessment as a decision‐making tool is applied to controversial fields such as genetic modification, stem cell research and nano‐scaled science and technology, inherent uncertainties and conflicting social values arise to challenge the adequacy of traditional approaches. In this paper, I propose a framework through which risk assessments may be exposed to a process of ‘extended review’, incorporating both natural and social science quality criteria and modes of reflection. I call this framework ‘Reliability Rating and Reflective Questioning’. The framework is developed through a detailed case study review of a particular risk assessment document. The case study risk assessment reviewed in this paper is that performed by an Australian governmental authority on the impact of genetically modified ‘Bt’ cotton on non‐target organisms. Through highlighting errors, misrepresentations, assumptions and embedded value judgements within the risk assessment document, I argue that the framework of ‘Reliability Rating and Reflective Questioning’ can serve as a useful tool for gauging and improving the quality of risk assessment, especially when used as a decision‐making tool for emerging technologies with high levels of uncertainty and strongly conflicting values.     

Improving the Interpretation of Complex Audit Evidence: The Beneficial Role of Order Effects

A principal element of business risk (or strategic systems) auditing is the goal of evaluating the degree of concordance between management representations and expectations derived from an understanding of the business environment. Peecher et al. (2007) argue that an effective means by which auditors may achieve this goal is through a process of evidentiary triangulation. In this exploratory study, we investigate whether the order with which auditors evaluate business environment, information systems and financial statement representations evidence has the potential, as suggested by belief function theory, to improve the effectiveness with which they interpret the complex interrelationships between these three sources of evidence. Analyzing judgements made by practicing auditors in an experimental setting, our results reveal that, when faced with negative business environment evidence that is in conflict with positive information systems and financial statement representations evidence, auditors assess the risk of material misstatement to be higher when they are presented with the critically important business environment evidence last, rather than, as is traditionally the case, first. There is, however, some evidence to suggest that the positive order effects may be attenuated by the requirement to document reasons underlying the judgements made. The results raise a number of practical and theoretical issues that give direction to future research in this important area.     

Optimism and the perceptions of new risks

While many risks, especially new ones, are not objectively quantifiable, individuals still form perceptions of risks using incomplete or unclear evidence about the true nature of those risks. In the case of well known risks, such as smoking, individuals perceive risks to be smaller for themselves than others, exhibiting ‘optimism bias’. Although existing evidence supports optimism bias occurring in the case of risks about which individuals are familiar, evidence does not yet exist to suggest that optimism bias applies for new risks. This paper addresses this question by examining the gap in perceptions of risks individuals have for themselves versus society and the environment, conceptualised as social and/or environmental optimism biases. We draw upon the 2002 UEA‐MORI Risk Survey to examine the existence of optimism bias and its effects on risk perceptions and acceptance regarding five science and technology‐related topics: climate change, mobile phones, radioactive waste, GM food and genetic testing. Our findings provide evidence of social and environmental optimism bias following similar patterns and optimism bias appearing greater for those risks bringing sizeable benefit to individuals (e.g. mobile phone radiation) rather than those more acutely affecting society or the environment (e.g. GM food or climate change). Social optimism bias is found to reduce risk perceptions for risks that have received large amounts of media attention, namely, climate change and GM food. On the other hand, optimism bias appears to increase risk perceptions about genetic testing.     

Differences in the strengths of evidence matters in risk–risk trade-offs

Making decisions between alternatives are challenging when there is weak or unreliable knowledge about the risks and benefits of the alternatives. This requires a trade-off between risks (and benefits). Here, we comment on a recent paper on risk–risk trade-offs and highlight the difficulties of making such trade-offs when the available evidence is of different strength. One current example of a risk–risk trade-off under weak evidence is the restriction and reevaluation of the risks of neonicotinoid insecticides to bees conducted by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). We argue that a risk–risk trade-off is essential in this context. Although considerable research efforts have been focused at determining the risks of neonicotinoids to bees, the evidence base is still limited. However, focus on strengthening evidence on impacts of one substance may lead policy-makers and public to believe that its substitutes are less harmful, when in fact evidence is weak on the impacts of these substitutes as well. We argue that a broader management of uncertainty is needed and that the difference in uncertainty underlying evidence of risk for different alternatives needs to be communicated to policy-makers. We suggest that this can be done, for example, using measures of uncertainty, which take into account strength in evidence, and combine these with principles to guide decision-making.     

建立我国高风险家庭儿童监测保护体系研究

儿童监护不力、遭受伤害或侵害等事件在我国有显著增加的趋势。发达国家的儿童保护服务,日益倾向以科学化和标准化的方法来评估儿童所面临的危机;并且渐以此方法为研究的目标,建立对儿童面临风险的监测标准,以及建构某些标准化的风险预估与防治模式。基于完善家庭政策、保护儿童权益和社会文明发展需要,我国应建立高风险家庭儿童监测保护体系。现有的法律法规政策、社会共识和社区发展为我国建立高风险家庭儿童监测保护体系提供了支持平台。我国高风险家庭儿童监测保护体系建设应坚持重在预防、贵在标准和成在精细的建设方针。     

Local risk factors in emerging markets: Are they separately priced?

We provide new evidence on the pricing of local risk factors in emerging stock markets. We investigate whether there is a significant local currency premium together with a domestic market risk premium in equity returns within a partial integration asset pricing model. Given previous evidence on currency risk, we conduct empirical tests in a conditional setting with time-varying prices of risk. Our main results support the hypothesis of a significant exchange risk premium related to the local currency risk. Exchange rate and domestic market risks are priced separately for our sample of seven emerging markets. The empirical evidence also suggests that although statistically significant, local currency risk is on average smaller than domestic market risk but it increases substantially during crises periods, when it can be almost as large as market risk. Disentangling these two factors is thus important in tests of international asset pricing for emerging markets.     

No one left behind: how social distance affects life-saving decision making

Extant research on social distance and decision-making under risk has mostly focused on how people reach different decisions for themselves than others under the same circumstances. This research adds to this literature by studying how the social distance between the decision-maker and people in danger influences risk preference in life-saving domain. We found that decision-makers tend to be more risk-seeking when the lives of close others are at stake than distant others regardless of whether the situation is framed in terms of loss or gain. However, the effect of social distance on risk preference was eliminated when it was the responsibility of the decision-makers rather than the chance to pick the potential victims to save. By analyzing the shape of value function, we provided preliminary evidence for the hypothesis that decision-makers engage in feeling-based evaluation when close others’ lives are at stake but calculation-based evaluation when distant others’ lives are at stake, which could account for the effect of social distance on risk preference documented in this research. A final experiment yielded direct evidence that evaluation mode mediates the relationship between social distance and risk preference.     

商业银行集团客户信贷风险管理研究

近年来,一系列集团客户先后爆发债务危机,给银行信贷资产带来重大损失和负面影响。本文针对集团客户的风险特征和我国商业银行的管理缺陷,指出集团客户信贷风险的成因。文中指出构建完善的集团客户风险管理体系主要在于:一是建立集中的信贷风险管理体制;二是建立集团客户风险管理长效机制,包括基础信贷风险管理制度、风险联动监督机制、风险信息预警提示制度、差别化的客户管理机制、有效的风险预警指标体系、双轨互动的风险管理机制、账户资金收支监测分析、内部风险评级体系建设等;三是构建社会监督机制,主要包括行际信息沟通机制、社会信息监督平台及完善银行同业协会功能等。     

Aquaculture: an emerging issue for public concern

The present paper reviews the literature on the risks and benefits of aquaculture. By bringing together sources from both natural sciences and social sciences, we provide a synthesis of perspectives on the relatively novel activity of modern aquaculture. This review consists of three parts: first, a background to aquaculture; second, an overview of the scientific risks and benefits; and third, an introduction to the related public perception issues. We establish five main risk‐related areas: human health, environment, organizational, fish welfare, and social issues and utilize these to highlight potential divergences in expert and lay perceptions. Drawing on findings from the risk perception literature, particularly those related to previous food‐related controversies, it is argued that aquaculture incorporates a range of issues, which have already been shown to be a catalyst for public concern. As such, we conclude that, in addition to natural science studies, aquaculture requires a social science approach in order to be able to anticipate and address future controversies in a timely and efficient manner. However, to date, only few articles address aquaculture from a social science perspective, and the present paper is offered as a step in this direction.     

Thinking with Ulrich Beck: security,terrorism and transformation

Abstract

Ulrich Beck is considered to be one of the most innovative and provocative social science thinkers of the last 50 years. His landmark contribution, Risk Society: Toward a New Modernity, sought to capture the underlying dynamics of the late twentieth century, drawing attention to the anthropogenic dangers generated by capitalist modernization. First published in Germany in 1986 under the title Risikogesellschaft, the best-selling book was translated into several languages and thrust Beck into the academic spotlight. The social and institutional critique presented in Risk Society caused ripples that spread way beyond academia, with the risk society thesis becoming the subject of widespread debate. However, in the field of risk research, Beck’s work has received a mixed reception. While some scholars have contested the foundational claims made in the risk society thesis, others have actively deployed the framework to analyze various incidents, processes, and transitions. Rather than seeking to cast judgment on the value of Beck’s overall contribution to studies of risk in the social sciences, this article seeks to actively deploy three concepts developed by Beck over the course of his career: staging; organized irresponsibility, and emancipatory catastrophism. In order to elucidate the explanatory capacity of these concepts, the phenomenon of terrorism is used as a touchstone for discussion. Following on from this – and as a means of extending appreciation of Beck’s work in risk studies – key areas worthy of further excavation are identified.     

Overcoming failure in infrastructure risk governance implementation: large dams journey

There is ample recognition of the risk inherent in our very existence and modes of social organization, with a reasonable expectation that implementing risk governance will result in enhanced resilience as a society. Despite this, risk governance is not a mainstream approach in the infrastructure sector, regardless of the increasing number of peer-reviewed published conceptualizations, mature procedures to support its application, or public calls to cope with systemic risks in our modern societies. This paper aims to offer a different view on the issue of risk governance, with focus in the analysis of the root causes of its relatively low degree of implementation in the infrastructure sector. We later analyze the impact of such essential causes, which we have grouped and labeled as the ontology, the concerns, the anathemas, and the forgotten, in the specific field of large dams. Finally, we describe the journey toward risk governance in the specific field of large dams, thus supporting the ultimate objective of this paper to facilitate an evidence-based approach to successful risk governance implementation within and outside the dam sector.