龙年物价运行回顾 蛇年物价走势前瞻

去年，在国家加大教育、住房、医疗等改革力度及西部开发投资建设的政策措施作用下，全国物价形势发了积极变化，突出表现在：2月份全国居民消费价格同比上升0.7%，结束了长达24个月下降的局面；5月起物价正式平稳浮出水面，从而使得全年居民消费价格由前两年的下降转为上升0.4%。贵州省物价形势与全国大体一致，2月份全省居民消费价格比上升0.4%。贵州省物价形势与全国大体一致，2月份全省居民消费价格同比上升0.3%，结束长达11个月下降的局面；9月起物价正式平稳浮出水面，由于我省物价正式浮出水面的时间晚于全国，全年居民消费价格比上年仍然下降0.5%，但比上年0.8%的降幅缩小0.3个百分点，实现了年初提出了的物价指数要高于上一年的调控目标。     

市场不必为3．4％惊慌

今年以来，居民消费物价持续上涨，其中3、4月份涨幅均达到3％以上，达到了央行3％的调控警戒线。5月份居民消费物价更是达到了3．4％。面对物价的快速上涨，很多人开始惊慌，担心出现新一轮通货膨胀。与此同时，央行再次加息的脚步声也隐隐传来。     

人民币汇率变动对国内物价影响的实证研究——基于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森模型

本文利用2002-2007年的中国居民消费价格、人民币名义有效汇率的季度数据,基于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森模型,选择欧盟的居民消费价格作为模型中的外国物价的代理变量,对人民币汇率对国内物价的影响进行了实证分析。     

2004年西北五省区经济金融运行分析——第三部分 五省区物价趋势分析

2004年我国物价继续承接2003年的涨势。从居民消费价格走势看，7、8月份居民消费价格指数达到5．3％，是1997年以来的最高值。从10月份开始，居民消费物价涨幅有所回落，11月份继续呈现回落态势。生产资料价格和工业品出厂价格涨势11月份也趋于缓和。     

两会议“四价”:物价、房价、股价、汇价

物价：九大措施防止物价过快上涨 新华网2008两会专题民意调查显示,在重点讨论解决的问题中,物价问题高居榜首。 2007年居民消费价格指数CPI增幅达到4．8％,创下了1997年以来的新高,2008年2月CPI增幅更是达到8．7％,创下11年新高。政府工作报告指出,2008年居民消费价格总水平涨幅将控制在4．8％左右。     

两会议“四价”：物价、房价、股价、汇价

物价：九大措施防止物价过快上涨 新华网2008两会专题民意调查显示,在重点讨论解决的问题中,物价问题高居榜首。 2007年居民消费价格指数CPI增幅达到4．8％,创下了1997年以来的新高,2008年2月CPI增幅更是达到8．7％,创下11年新高。政府工作报告指出,2008年居民消费价格总水平涨幅将控制在4．8％左右。     

今年金融运行中值得关注的三个问题

货币供应量增长加快而物价升温缓慢 2002年居民消费价格比上年同期下降0.8%,持续的物价负增长与快速的货币供应量增长之间形成了强烈的反差.为什么近年我国货币供应量持续增长而物价长期低迷呢?我们认为货币供应量增长与物价增长的反差源于结构问题,是"过度竞争"导致物价长期负增长.     

我国当前物价走势与宏观调控

当前我国物价形势分析以居民消费价格指数(CPI)衡量的全国物价总水平上涨较快2007年1～9月,我国居民消费价格总水平分别上涨了2.2%、2.7%、3.3%、3.0%、3.4%、4.4%、5.6%、6.5%、6.2%,物价水平逐月上升。与2006年同期相比,2007年1～6月全国居民消费价格总水平上涨3.2%;1～7月上涨3.5%;1～8月上涨3.9%;1～9月     

景气分析之物价水平波动

物价是经济运行状况的晴雨表,且影响着居民生活水平以及生活质量。而CPI作为衡量物价的最主要指标,通过了对我国居民消费价格指数自1997年1月至2013年3月的曲线图观察,发现了我国CPI曲线图有明显的周期性波动,大胆推测物价的波动也有周期性波动。本文以经济景气监测理论为基础,提出了构建物价景气指数选择的方法,为物价的发展态势的预测提供参考。     

西南四省区2003年物价形势分析及2004年走势预测

2003年以来，持续几年的物价下降走势呈现出回升势头。与全国相比，西南四省区的物价走势有其共性的一面，与全国价格运行态势一样，全辖物价进入上升轨道的态势已基本确立。2003年，居民消费物价指数和工业品出厂价格指数均保持了上涨态势，同时，四省区物价走势     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…