Higher Price,Lower Costs? Minimum Prices in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

In this paper, we examine the introduction of a price floor in an emissions trading system (ETS) when some emissions are regulated outside the ETS. We theoretically characterize the conditions under which a price floor enhances welfare. Using a numerical simulation model of the European Union (EU), we find that moderate minimum prices in the EU ETS can reduce the costs of EU climate policy by up to 30 percent. We also find that, because of tax‐interaction effects, the optimal minimum price in the EU ETS should be about four times higher than the average marginal abatement cost in non‐ETS sectors.     

Market Power in Emission Permit Markets: Theory and Evidence from the EU ETS

A well-known result about market power in emission permit markets is that efficiency can be achieved by full free allocation to the dominant firm. I show that this result breaks down when taking the interaction between input and output markets into account, even if the dominant firm perceives market power in the permit market alone. I then examine the empirical evidence for price manipulation by the ten largest electricity firms during phase I of the EU ETS. I find that some firms’ excess allowance holdings are consistent with strategic price manipulation, and that they cannot be explained by price speculation or by precautionary purchases to insure against uncertain future emissions. My results suggest that market power is likely to be an empirically relevant concern during the early years of emission permit markets.     

Bad volatility is not always bad: evidence from the commodity markets

ABSTRACT

Using exchange-traded fund (ETF) options data, we examine the predictive power of variance risk premium on returns of four commodities: crude oil, natural gas, gold and silver. We also analyze the predictive power of upside and downside variance risk premiums using a decomposition model conditional on the direction of the underlying market movement. We find that both the undecomposed and decomposed variance risk premiums are able to predict commodity prices. The decomposed variance risk premiums, however, outperform the undecomposed premium. The importance of upside and downside variance risk premiums differs across markets, related to hedging demand. In energy markets, both upside and downside premiums have strong predictive power, while in precious metal markets, only the upside premium is predictive.     

Market Power,Permit Allocation and Efficiency in Emission Permit Markets

Market power in permit markets has been examined in some detail following the seminal work of Hahn (Q J Econ 99(4):753–765, 1984), but the effect of free allocation on price manipulation with market power in both product and permit market has not been fully addressed. I show that in this case, the threshold of free allocation above which a dominant firm will set the permit price above its marginal abatement costs is below its optimal emissions in a competitive market, and that overall efficiency cannot be achieved by means of permit allocation alone. In addition to being of general economic interest, this issue is relevant in the context of the EU ETS. I find that the largest German, UK and Nordpool power generators received free allowances in excess of the derived threshold. Conditional on having price-setting power in both the electricity and permit markets, these firms would have found it profitable to manipulate the permit price upwards despite being net permit buyers.     

The Impact of the European Emission Trading Scheme on Multiple Measures of Economic Performance

The European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has introduced a price for carbon, thus generating an additional cost for companies that are regulated by the scheme. The objective of this paper is to provide empirical evidence on the effect of the EU ETS on firm-level economic performance. There is a growing body of empirical literature that investigates the effects of the EU ETS on firm economic performance, with mixed results. Differently from the previous literature, we test the effect of the EU ETS on a larger set of indicators of economic performance: employment, average wages, turnover, value added, markup, investment, labour productivity, total factor productivity and ROI. Our results, based on a large panel of European firms, provide a broad picture of the economic impact of the EU ETS in its first and second phases of implementation. Contrarily to the expectations, the EU ETS did not affect economic performance negatively. Results suggest that firms have reacted to the EU ETS by passing-through costs to their customers on the one hand and improving labour productivity on the other hand.     

PLATFORM COMPETITION WITH ENDOGENOUS HOMING

We consider two-sided markets in which consumers and firms endogenously determine whether they single-home, multi-home, or exit the market. We find that the competitive bottleneck allocation in which consumers single-home and firms multi-home is always an equilibrium. In addition, we find equilibria with multi-homing and single-homing on each side of the market. However, unlike the standard pricing result where the side that multi-homes faces higher prices, we find that lower prices coincide with multi-homing: agents find multi-homing more attractive when faced with lower prices. We also show that endogenous homing can induce straddle pricing which deters price undercutting between platforms.     

The impact of regulatory change on EU energy utility returns: the three liberalization packages

The European Union’s (EU) energy sector is changing due to major policy reforms. In this article, we examine the impact of major legislative changes which were designed to induce competition in the energy sector: the three liberalization packages. Competition was expected to benefit the industry by phasing out inefficient firms. EU citizens were also expected to benefit as competition was likely to promote a more efficient energy sector and more consumer choice of energy products and services. However, this legislative change occurred during a period of extreme market turmoil. We examine the impact of all these changes on the risk profile of the sector. Our results show that the liberalization legislation significantly increased systematic risk exposure of the sector, reducing its role as a defensive investment asset. We also show that commodities had relatively little impact on sector returns, but this was expected as utilities can offset commodity risk in hedging markets. We compare our results to those obtained in neighbouring EU sectors and find the impacts are isolated to the energy sector. This article makes a major contribution to energy policy by empirically showing the change in risk as a result of sector liberalization.     

The relationship among enterprise clustering,prices, and productivity in Ethiopia’s manufacturing sector

We use census panel data on Ethiopian manufacturing firms to analyze how enterprise clustering in local markets covaries with firm‐level output prices and physical productivity. We find a negative and statistically significant relationship between the density of firms that produce a given product in a given location and the local price of that product. We also find a positive and statistically significant relationship between the density of firms that produce a given product in a location and the physical productivity of same‐product firms in the location. These results are consistent with the notion that increased clustering of firms generates higher competitive pressure and positive externalities. Across firms that produce different products, we find no statistically significant relationship between enterprise clustering and firm‐level output prices and productivity. We also find no clustering effects across towns. Our results suggest that while clustering can impact firm performance, the advantages are narrow in scope.     

Market Underreaction and Overreaction of Technology Stocks

Several studies have assessed stock market under- or overreaction of stocks and there is some agreement among them. However, there is much disagreement about what constitutes market underreaction or overreaction, and the conditions that cause it. The substantial variation in results among studies may be partially attributed to the types of firms that are contained in any sample. We investigate this premise by focusing on a sample of technology stocks that experienced an extreme change in stock price, along with a corresponding control sample of non-technology stocks that experienced a similar extreme change in stock price on the same day.

Based on the subsequent stock price behavior of each sample, we find a greater degree of overreaction within extreme positive changes in technology stock prices (winners) than in non-technology stock prices. In addition, we find a greater degree of underreaction within extreme negative changes in technology stock prices (losers) than in non-technology stock prices. When considering winners and losers collectively for technology and non-technology firms, it appears the market is overoptimistic when it initially revalues technology stock prices relative to non-technology stock prices.

The degree of under- or overreaction of technology stocks varies within the sample of technology stocks, and is conditioned on firm-specific characteristics. Overall, our results suggest that technology stocks exhibit unique stock price behavior subsequent to an extreme change in price, and that this unique behavior can even vary among technology firms according to firm-specific characteristics.     

Currency Options and Export-Flexible Firms

This paper examines the production and hedging decisions of a globally competitive firm under exchange rate uncertainty. The firm is risk averse and possesses export flexibility in that it can distribute its output to either the domestic market or a foreign market after observing the realized spot exchange rate. To hedge against its exchange rate risk exposure, the firm can trade fairly priced currency call options of an arbitrary strike price. We show that both the separation and the full‐hedging results hold if the strike price of the currency call options is set equal to the ratio of the domestic and foreign selling prices. Otherwise, neither result holds. Specifically, we show that the optimal level of output is always less than that of an otherwise identical firm that is risk neutral. Furthermore, an under‐hedge (over‐hedge) is optimal whenever the strike price of the currency call options is below (above) the ratio of the domestic and foreign selling prices.     

Hot air for sale: a quantitative assessment of Russia’s near-term climate policy options

Since January 2005 the European Union has launched an EU-internal emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) for emission-intensive installations as the central pillar to comply with the Kyoto Protocol. The EU ETS will be linked to a Kyoto emissions market where greenhouse gas emission allowances of signatory Kyoto countries can be traded. In this paper we investigate the implications of Russian market power for environmental effectiveness and regional compliance costs to the Kyoto Protocol taking into account potential linkages between the Kyoto emissions market and the EU ETS. We find that Russia may have incentives to join the EU ETS as long as the latter remains relatively separated from the Kyoto international emissions market. In this case, Russia can exert monopolistic price discrimination between two separated markets thereby maximizing revenues from hot air sales. The EU will be able to substantially reduce compliance costs if it does not restrain itself to EU-internal emission regulation schemes. However, part of the gains from extra-EU emissions trading will come at the expense of environmental effectiveness as (more) hot air will be drawn in.      

Time- or state-dependent price setting rules? Evidence from micro data

We use two rich micro-datasets on Portuguese firms to analyse the ability of time- and state-dependent price setting rules to explain durations of price spells, or the probability of price changes. Using a duration model with time-varying regressors, we find some evidence of state-dependent price setting behaviour, which suggests that time-dependent models are unable to fully describe the features of the data. Specifically, we find statistically significant impacts on the probability of a price change of inflation, the level of economic activity and the magnitude of the last price change. Besides being statistically significant, in some cases these effects are also economically important. Finally, it is found that negative and positive values of the covariates have different impacts on the expected duration of prices.     

The impact of bargaining on markets with price takers: Too many bargainers spoil the broth

In this paper we study how bargainers impact on markets in which firms set a list price to sell to those consumers who take prices as given. The list price acts as an outside option for the bargainers, so the higher the list price, the more the firms can extract from bargainers. We find that an increase in the proportion of consumers seeking to bargain can lower consumer surplus overall, even though new bargainers receive a lower price. The reason is that the list price for those who do not bargain and the bargained prices for those who were already bargaining rise: sellers have a greater incentive to make the bargainers’ outside option less attractive, reducing the incentive to compete for price takers. Competition Authority exhortations to bargain can therefore be misplaced. We also consider the implications for optimal seller bargaining.     

Effective Enforcement of a Transferable Emissions Permit System with a Self-Reporting Requirement

We propose an enforcement strategy to achieve complete compliance in a transferable emissions permit system when firms are required to provide reports of their own emissions. Like the literature on self-reporting in the enforcement of standards, we find that self-reporting can conserve monitoring costs, but for a different reason. In addition, we show that targeted monitoring—the practice of monitoring some firms more closely than others—is not necessary in a competitive permit system. Furthermore, tying penalties to the equilibrium permit price can stabilize the monitoring effort necessary to maintain full compliance in the face of permit price fluctuations.     

STATE DEPENDENT PRICING AND BUSINESS CYCLE ASYMMETRIES*

We present a tractable, dynamic general equilibrium model of state‐dependent pricing and study the response of output and prices to monetary policy shocks. We find important nonlinearities in these responses. For empirically relevant shocks, this generates substantially different predictions from time‐dependent pricing. We also find a distinct asymmetry with state‐dependent pricing: Prices respond more to positive shocks than they do to negative shocks. This is due to a strategic linkage between firms in the incentive for price adjustment. Our state‐dependent model can account for business cycle asymmetries in output of the magnitude found in empirical studies.     

Market volatility and the dynamic hedging of multi-commodity price risk

Commodity cash and futures prices experienced a severe boom-and-bust cycle between 2006 and 2009. Increases in commodity price volatility have raised concerns about the usefulness of commodity futures and options as risk management tools. Dynamic hedging strategies have the potential to improve risk management when conditional (co)variances depart significantly from their unconditional, long-run counterparts and may be useful to decision-makers despite their greater complexity and higher transaction costs. We propose a Nonparametric Copula-based Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (NPC-GARCH) approach to estimate time-varying hedge ratios, and evaluate the benefits of dynamic hedging during four sub-periods between 2000 and 2011 using a stylized Texas cattle feedlot management problem. The NPC-GARCH approach allows for a flexible, nonlinear and asymmetric dependence structure between cash and futures prices for different commodities. We find that NPC-GARCH dynamic hedging performs better than either static, GARCH-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) or GARCH-Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (BEKK) hedging in terms of lower tail risk (expected shortfall), but that there is no significant difference between hedging approaches in terms of portfolio variance reduction.     

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Housing-Purchase Restrictions on Housing Prices in China

This paper examines the level and volatility effect of monetary policy on housing prices in China utilizing a novel set of housing price indices constructed by (Fang, H., QuanlinGu, W. X., & Zhou, L.-A. (2015). Demystifying the Chinese housing boom. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30. University of Chicago Press.). We find that in the long-run, average housing prices react positively to inflation, money supply and bank lending growth, and negatively to the reserve requirement ratio and benchmark lending rate. Housing prices in Tier 1 cities respond more sensitively to monetary shocks relative to Tier 2 and 3 cities, possibly due to surging demand and limited supply under housing-purchase restrictions (HPR). We further study the volatility effect of monetary shocks using the GARCH model and find that the benchmark lending rate, reserve requirement ratio and money supply growth have strong negative impact on the volatility of housing price growth. Our benchmark results remain robust after incorporating the HPR policy variable in the estimation, with a significant negative effect of HPR on housing price growth in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. Lastly, we conclude with recommendations on future monetary policy design and implementation, with a specific focus on the heterogeneous characteristics of China’s housing market.     

Outward Foreign Direct Investment Patterns of Italian Firms in the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme*

We consider the role played by the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) as a possible driver of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) for Italian manufacturing firms. Using a panel dataset of about 22,000 firms covering the first two phases of the EU ETS and the period before the EU ETS, we measure the patterns of FDI towards countries not covered by the EU ETS. The results show that the EU ETS had a weak effect on the number of new subsidiaries abroad (extensive margin), while it had a larger impact on production taking place in foreign subsidiaries (intensive margin), especially in trade-intensive sectors.     

An experimental study of price dispersion

We report an experiment examining a simple clearinghouse model that generates price dispersion. According to this model, price dispersion arises because of consumer heterogeneity—some consumers are “informed” and simply buy from the firm offering the lowest price, while the remaining consumers are “captive” and shop based on considerations other than price. In our experiment we observe substantial and persistent price dispersion. We find that, as predicted, an increase in the fraction of informed consumers leads to more competitive pricing for all consumers. We also find, as predicted, that when more firms enter the market, prices to informed consumers become more competitive while prices to captive customers become less competitive. Thus, our experiment provides strong support for the model's comparative static predictions about how changes in market structure affect pricing.     

Futures price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances

We analyze the pricing and lead–lag relationship between spot and futures prices of CO₂ emission allowances in the EU emission trading scheme. We show that the cost-of-carry hypothesis between spot and futures prices holds for the trial period. In this period we focus on how fast a deviation from equilibrium due to shocks is restored. We derive testable restrictions on the loading coefficients and the short term dynamics within a vector error correction model. Previous studies in this field did not take into account the effects of lagged differences in the determination of the speed of adjustment. The results indicate that deviations from equilibrium are restored faster for the futures price series maturing in 2006 than for the futures price series maturing in 2007. Furthermore, we conduct an impulse response analysis using local projections with conditional confidence bands. Finally, we give an outlook for the Kyoto commitment period which is already running. In this time period so far we find that the cost-of-carry hypothesis does not hold.