基于聚类手法的村庄规划设计对策

村庄布点规划是新时期社会主义新农村建设背景下的一种类型规划,笔者以广州市萝岗区某镇村庄布局规划为例,采用了聚集分类规划的方法,总结性提出根据不同村庄历史发展、空间形态、发展策略,,形成差异化、特色化的农村居民点空间布局,针对性地解决农民的实际问题,为以后的村庄规划起到抛砖引玉的作用.     

我国文化产业空间集聚的动力、特征与演化

近年来,国家和地方政府相继出台系列政策引导文化产业集聚发展,推动文化产业发展成为国民经济的支柱产业.在此背景下,本文基于文化企业区位选择的视角,分别从创意阶层集中、产业链协作、客户资源共享三个角度阐释不同类型文化产业空间集聚的动力;利用文化产业细分行业数据,分析中国文化产业空间集聚的行业及区域分布特征,构建动态面板数据模型,并进行集聚变动指标分解,剖析文化产业空间集聚的演化特征.结果表明:中国文化产业空间集聚发展在不同区域间呈现阶梯状非均衡分布特点,但公共文化服务空间分布均匀;各文化细分行业的空间集聚程度偏低,且多个细分行业空间集聚水平出现下降趋势,其中平均回复效应是制约各行业空间集聚程度提升的关键原因.因此,打造特色文化产业集聚区、构建水平垂直整合的文化产业链集群、吸引创意人才汇聚、健全软基础设施建设是推进文化产业窣间集聚发展的主要措施.     

产业集聚的集聚动力:一个文献综述

产业集聚的集聚动力包括源动力、外部动力与集聚机制三方面,本文从产业地方化、城市化、中心—外围三个维度对以往文献有关产业集聚的源动力、外部动力、集聚机制进行了梳理。基于集聚经济圈产业集聚的视角,在对以往文献进行理论反思的基础上,本文展望了集聚经济圈产业集聚的源动力、外部动力的进一步研究方向。     

实现巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接的内涵、机理与模式

实现巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接亟需寻求系统性方案。文章从科学内涵出发，对实现二者有效衔接的内在逻辑与机理，地域类型分异与村庄分类视角下的模式选择及实现路径进行了系统研究，并提出了城乡融合发展下的扶贫开发与乡村振兴启示。结果表明：实现巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接本质上是通过缩小乡村内部分化水平，在转型统筹与良性互馈机制下，提升乡村居民发展能力与村庄发展禀赋的过程。脱贫攻坚解决乡村振兴的前端问题与底线短板，乡村振兴是对乡村地域整体功能的全方位诊断与优化，为乡村贫困问题的解决提供全方案。实现二者有效衔接需要从发展目标、发展主体、发展机制与实现路径上实现多维立体衔接，实现路径中政策供给是根本，要素供给是重点，动力供给是关键。不同类型地域与村庄需要选取差异化发展模式与路径。需要推进乡村全面振兴以破解贫困问题，促进乡村振兴与新型城镇化战略的整合协同，以城乡融合发展助推城乡地域系统功能的整体优化。     

产业差异与中小企业空间集聚

我国中小企业发展具有突出的空间不均衡性,呈现出集聚特征.不同的产业具有不同的技术经济特征,对企业规模构成产生内在的规定性,从而形成不同产业类型企业规模结构的差异性.不同产业类型的中小企业空间集聚具有显著差异性,而且从动态变化上看,具有集聚度提高、由沿海导向向中部扩散的发展趋势.根据中小企业集聚过程中的空间选择动力机制、产业特征的不同,中小企业空间集聚主要有资源型集聚、市场型集聚、外向型集聚和产业关联型集聚等不同类型,每种类型可持续发展面临的制约因素及其发展战略存在差异.遵循产业发展不同阶段空间区位选择规律,推动具有创新能力和区域特色的中小企业集聚发展,成为协调区域经济发展的重要力量.     

外部效应：如何推动了中国农业产业集聚的发展？

文章基于1999—2013年中国276个城市的面板数据,运用联立方程模型和3SLS法研究了外部效应如何推动中国农业产业集聚,得出以下结论:(1)农业生产经营者与土地的匹配效应、农业前端投入品及终端加工品市场效应、农业示范效应及学习效应、农业信息共享效应与农业产业集聚之间能够互相促进、互相推动;(2)随着农业产业集聚水平的发展,自然资源要素禀赋和外部要素禀赋不再是推动农业产业集聚的主要动力,而外部效应变成推动农业产业集聚发展的主要动力。对中国农业产业集聚形成及演变机制的研究,对于推进中国农业供给侧结构性改革,加快转变农业发展方式有一定的现实意义。     

城乡一体化的动力机制构建与发展策略研究

适宜的动力机制是城乡一体化健康有序发展的根本保证。文章基于城乡等值、制度推进、产业互动、市场融通、要素流动、集聚扩散、空间网络等关键因子构建城乡一体化发展的系统动力机制;从城乡一体化发展分区、经济社会制度制定、选择性集聚与普遍性扩散、推进型主导产业梯度选择、农业现代化、培育城乡市场主体、城乡网络流通道建设等七个方面提出推动城乡一体化发展的策略与建议。     

制造业集聚、大气污染与节能减排

制造业集聚作为最具活力的空间组织形式,在有关资源、环境问题的研究中一直被忽视。本文通过中国30个制造业面板数据,实证检验了制造业集聚与大气污染之间的关系。结果表明,制造业集聚与大气污染之间呈N型曲线关系;目前中国制造业处于中级集聚阶段,大气污染总量随集聚度提高而增加,但排放强度呈下降趋势;制造业大气污染的缓解主要来自环境规制、FDI等外部因素,内在节能减排动力不足。因此,政府应在大力推进制造业向高集聚阶段发展的同时,引导产业通过自身的环保节能需求来实现节能减排。     

知识密集型产业集群发展动力机制模型构建

产业集群发展动力机制问题是产业集群发展的核心问题。首先明确了产业集群发展动力机制的内涵,在此基础上构建了人力资本集聚视角下的知识密集型产业集群发展动力机制模型,并对模型的构成要素进行了详细分析,清晰地呈现了知识密集型产业集群发展的动力构成要素和作用机制。     

农村社区分化背景下的村庄治理

随着改革的推进和农村社会的发展,农村社区日益分化,不断扩大的村庄差距造成了社会流动失序,加深了村庄间隔阂,增大了社会风险,致使村庄治理面临巨大困境,必须从国家宏观引导分化程度、村庄内部创新治理机制、探索多样化村庄治理模式等方面,进行农村社区分化背景下的村庄治理路径选择。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。