金融支持上海经济转型问题研究

金融是现代经济的核心。在经济转型的过程中,金融的支持作用必不可少。传统上,关于金融的支持作用主要集中在其资金支持的作用,亦即输血功能上。近年来,随着金融理论和实践的深化,金融支持经济转型的范围和内涵也都在发生着变化。其中最主要的一点,就是金融业对经济的全面支持和深入介入,金融业已成为影响经济转型发展的一个重要内生因素。本文从分析上海经济转型面临的问题入手,研究了金融支持上海经济转型的理论基础、主要路径和现实选择,提出了金融业充分发挥自身作用、全面深入地支持上海经济转型的相关政策建议。     

金融行业对实体行业的尾部风险传导研究——基于实体企业金融化视角

本文基于我国金融资本超额回报率的事实,在市场套利分析框架下实证检验了实 体企业金融化是抑制还是加剧了尾部金融风险溢出。数值模拟结果表明：从杠杆率来看,实体 企业金融化对杠杆率具有“双刃剑”效应,然而,实证结果发现,从长期经济后果来看,实体 企业金融化却显著提高了杠杆率,基于Altman-Z值的风险分析进一步发现企业破产风险显著 上升,从而加剧了尾部金融风险溢出。文章的研究结论有利于全面观察实体企业金融化带来的 的实际效果,也揭示了金融行业对实体行业的风险传导过程中的一个风险源,对于实体经济和 金融领域关于企业金融化效应的研究具有参考价值。     

金融发展与经济动态效率：重庆个案

依据内生经济增长的理论框架,选取重庆市1998年到2016年的相关数据,测算重 庆经济动态效率后发现,2002年前的重庆经济动态效率为正值,经济动态有效。但随着投资驱 动政策的逐年实行,经济动态效率数值由正转为负,进入到动态无效阶段,且下降趋势更为明 显。2009年以后,重庆金融业不断完善,金融对经济的影响效应稳步增强,经济的动态效率又 得到了回升,但仍处于无效状态。实证结果表明重庆金融发展规模、金融运行效率对经济动态 效率有积极的作用,而贷款规模扩大对经济动态效率有负面影响。因此,重庆金融改革应注重 优化金融行业运行结构,降低金融杠杆比例,提高金融运行效率和构建长江上游金融中心,以 提高重庆经济动态效率,并实现金融与经济的内涵式增长。     

On the volatility spillover between lslamic and conventional stock markets: A quantile regression analysis

This paper aims at analyzing the degree and structure of interdependencies in terms of volatility (transmission, contagion) between Islamic and conventional stock markets on calm periods and at times of financial fragility and crisis. We focused on the recent financial instability periods and used the Quantile Regression-based GARCH model. Main results lead to very interesting conclusions. First, it has been found that Islamic stock markets are not totally immune to the global financial crisis. Second, a very strong interdependence is sensed from the conventional to the Islamic stock markets, especially, from the conventional developed markets to the Islamic Emerging and Arab markets and to the Islamic developed markets. Finally, it has been proved that the interdependencies from conventional to Islamic markets are propagated between Islamic markets. Our findings suggest that the Islamic finance industry does not seem able to provide cushion against economic and financial shocks that affect conventional markets.     

A Comparative Literature Survey of Islamic Finance and Banking

There has been large-scale growth in Islamic finance and banking in Muslim countries and around the world during the last twenty years. This growth is influenced by factors including the introduction of broad macroeconomic and structural reforms in financial systems, the liberalization of capital movements, privatization, the global integration of financial markets, and the introduction of innovative and new Islamic products. Islamic finance is now reaching new levels of sophistication. However, a complete Islamic financial system with its identifiable instruments and markets is still very much at an early stage of evolution. Many problems and challenges relating to Islamic instruments, financial markets, and regulations must be addressed and resolved. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive comparative review of the literature on the Islamic financial system. Specifically, we discuss the basic features of the Islamic finance and banking. We also introduce Islamic financial instruments in order to compare them to existing Western financial instruments and discuss the legal problems that investors in these instruments may encounter. The paper also gives a preliminary empirical assessment of the performance of Islamic banking and finance, and highlights the regulations, challenges and problems in the Islamic banking market.     

数字时代的银行业变迁——网点布局与行业结构

数字技术可以帮助市场主体重构组织模式,数字经济时代的金融业也因此迎来变革。本文基于2014年至2019年我国县级行政区数据,研究发现,数字金融的发展显著减缓了我国银行业金融机构实体网点的扩张势头,这种效应主要体现在股份制商业银行和城市商业银行上,并主要影响这两类银行的基层机构。同时,我们发现数字金融的发展加快了农村合作金融机构的转型和网点退出,但对国有“六大行”没有显著影响。进一步研究发现,数字金融的影响效果会随着经济发展程度提高和地区金融可得性增加而增强,但随着在位银行的市场势力提升而下降。本文为理解数字经济时代银行业的变迁提供了一定参考。     

Risk–Return Profiles of Islamic Equities and Commodity Portfolios in Different Market Conditions

Motivated by the recent phenomenal growth in Islamic finance and the financialization of commodities, this study makes an initial attempt to investigate the risk–return profiles of optimized portfolios combining (a) Islamic equities with commodities and (b) conventional equities with commodities during the crises and noncrises periods. The findings tend to indicate that Islamic equity–commodity portfolios provide relatively higher diversification benefits than the conventional equity–commodity portfolios during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis triggered by the financial sector compared to the 2008 global financial crisis triggered by the real housing sector. The findings further suggest that except for a few cases, commodities in general and gold in particular improve diversification benefits.     

金融产业集聚研究评述

金融产业是经济的核心产业,在经济发展中起着至关重要的作用。随着经济全球化和金融全球化的快速发展,金融产业集聚已成为现代金融产业组织的基本形式。本文主要从金融产业集聚的内涵、形成动因、效应及实证分析方面对学术界有关金融产业集聚的研究进行了梳理,总结了金融产业集聚的研究成果及不足,以期为今后的金融产业集聚的深入研究提供参考。     

The Business Cycle,Investor Sentiment,and Costly External Finance

The recent financial crisis shows that financial markets can impact the real economy. We investigate whether access to finance typically time‐varies and, if so, what are the real effects. Consistent with time‐varying external finance costs, both investment and employment are less sensitive to Tobin's q and more sensitive to cash flow during recessions and low investor sentiment periods. Share issuance plays a bigger role than debt issuance in causing these effects. Alternative tests that do not rely on q and cash flow sensitivities suggest that recessions and low sentiment increase external finance costs, thereby limiting investment and employment.     

The composite risk-sharing finance index: Implications for Islamic finance

In policy-making, assessment of where a country stands relative to other countries is important to achieve desired goals, to understand how much the current policy implementation diverts from the target, and to understand main obstacles on reaching at the ends in the light of the comparators and the benchmark. This study evaluates relative standing of countries with respect to their financial system's friendliness for risk-sharing finance, the concept which forms the core foundation of Islamic finance. A composite risk-sharing finance friendliness index is developed to compare and rank the countries with regard to their level of their support and adoption of risk-sharing finance. Although, there have been attempts to develop such index, this study is novel in the Islamic finance literature in the sense that it brings the factor analysis and non-linear weights into the picture to come up with an objective and convincing composite index with objective weights. The composite index also allows us to look into the relative contribution of components, namely, Institutional Scaffolding, Governance and Legal Environment, Financial Sector Development and Inclusion. The results and ranking of the countries reveal important information about the potential of developing risk-sharing finance and financial products in different countries. The results also reveal that the OIC countries are far away from meeting the basic requirements of setting-up risk-sharing finance and thus a framework for comprehensive development of Islamic finance.     

The Global Financial Crisis and the Efficient Market Hypothesis: What Have We Learned?

The sharp economic downturn and turmoil in the financial markets, commonly referred to as the “global financial crisis,” has spawned an impressive outpouring of blame. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH)—the idea that competitive financial markets exploit all available information when setting security prices—has been singled out for particular attention. Like all successful theories, the EMH has major limitations, even as it continues to provide the foundation for not only past accomplishment, but future advances in the field of finance. Despite the theory's undoubted limitations, the claim that it is responsible for the current worldwide crisis seems wildly exaggerated. This essay shows the misreading of the theory and logical inconsistencies involved in popular arguments that EMH played a significant role in (1) the formation of the real estate and stock market bubbles, (2) investment practitioners' miscalculation of risks, and (3) the failure of regulators to recognize the bubbles and avert the crisis. At the same time, the author argues that the collapse of Lehman Brothers and other large financial institutions, far from resulting from excessive faith in efficient markets, reflects a failure to heed the lessons of efficient markets. In the author's words, “To me, Lehman's demise conclusively demonstrates that, in a competitive capital market, if you take massive risky positions financed with extraordinary leverage, you are bound to lose big one day—no matter how large and venerable you are.” Finally, behavioral finance, widely considered as challenging and even supplanting efficient markets theory, is viewed in this article as complementing if not reinforcing efficient markets theory. As the author says, “it takes a theory to beat a theory.” Behavioralism, for all its important contributions to finance literature, is described as not a theory but rather “a collection of ideas and results”— one that depends for its existence on the theory of efficient markets.     

我国房地产金融创新的路径探讨——基于次贷危机爆发后的思考

鉴于房地产作为支柱产业的重要性,房地产金融创新是房地产金融业发展的必然要求,对促进房地产业发展具有重要意义.本文从美围次贷危机爆发的原因与房地产金融创新的关系出发.揭示房地产金融创新产生的风险,在此基础上考察了我国房地产金融现状,并从要完善房地产金融市场、创新风险防范体系,谨慎进行房地产金融创新,创新融资方式等几个方面提出建议.     

改进我国金融统计实践工作的多维视角

在后金融危机时代，中国经济的快速发展已成为全球经济复苏的重要推动力量，中国经济金融的统计信息将更为世人所关注。如何通过完善现有统计制度、方法，有效疏通阻碍金融统计深层次变革的制约，提供“高效、准确”的金融信息服务产品，成为当前金融统计工作者亟待思考的问题。该文从多个角度提出改进我国金融统计实践工作的相关思路。     

中国股市行业风险与宏观经济之间的风险传导机制

本文采用行业收益率溢出指数度量股市行业风险,并进一步研究中国股市行业风险与宏观经济的相互影响,同时引入股息率和利率两个中介渠道深入挖掘其传导机制。我们运用GARCH-in-Mean模型对股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间的一阶矩和二阶矩相互关系同时进行分析,结果发现,股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间水平值和波动率都存在双向影响,对外溢出效应较大的行业起主导作用。此外,股市行业风险对宏观经济变量的影响方面,股息率和利率均起到中介渠道作用;宏观经济变量对股市行业风险的影响方面,只是利率起到中介渠道作用。股市行业风险与宏观经济的传导效应在不同时期差异显著。本文研究结论有助于深刻理解金融与实体经济之间的风险传导机制,对防范系统性风险、防止金融和实体经济“风险共振”以及提升金融服务实体经济能力等具有参考意义。     

中国股市行业风险与宏观经济之间的风险传导机制

本文采用行业收益率溢出指数度量股市行业风险,并进一步研究中国股市行业风险与宏观经济的相互影响,同时引入股息率和利率两个中介渠道深入挖掘其传导机制。我们运用GARCH-in-Mean模型对股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间的一阶矩和二阶矩相互关系同时进行分析,结果发现,股市行业风险和宏观经济变量之间水平值和波动率都存在双向影响,对外溢出效应较大的行业起主导作用。此外,股市行业风险对宏观经济变量的影响方面,股息率和利率均起到中介渠道作用;宏观经济变量对股市行业风险的影响方面,只是利率起到中介渠道作用。股市行业风险与宏观经济的传导效应在不同时期差异显著。本文研究结论有助于深刻理解金融与实体经济之间的风险传导机制,对防范系统性风险、防止金融和实体经济“风险共振”以及提升金融服务实体经济能力等具有参考意义。     

Global Growth Opportunities and Market Integration

We propose an exogenous measure of a country's growth opportunities by interacting the country's local industry mix with global price to earnings (PE) ratios. We find that these exogenous growth opportunities predict future changes in real GDP and investment in a large panel of countries. This relation is strongest in countries that have liberalized their capital accounts, equity markets, and banking systems. We also find that financial development, external finance dependence, and investor protection measures are much less important in aligning growth opportunities with growth than is capital market openness. Finally, we formulate new tests of market integration and segmentation by linking local and global PE ratios to relative economic growth.     

Financial inclusion,financial inclusion policy and Islamic finance

Using a qualitative analysis, the paper examines the links between financial inclusion and the Islamic financial services industry in Muslim countries. The findings show that, despite growth in the financial sector in many Muslim countries over the past few decades, many individuals and firms are still financially excluded. An analysis of the use of and access to financial services by adults and firms also shows that most Muslim countries lag behind other emerging economies in both respects, with a rate of financial inclusion of only 27%. Cost, distance, documentation, trust, and religious requirements are among the important obstacles. In addition, not surprisingly, the extent of Islamic microfinance is very limited, small by international standards; it accounts for a small proportion of microfinance, about 0.5% of global microfinance, and lacks a cost-efficient service model. This study suggests that Islamic instruments for redistributing income such as awqaf, qard-al-hassan, sadaqa, and zakah, can play a role in bringing more than 40 million people, who are financially excluded for religious reasons, into the formal financial system. The Islamic financial services industry has a long way to go in improving financial inclusion in many Muslim countries due to the scale needed and its relatively weak infrastructure.     

中国城市现代碳金融服务体系的构建研究

近几年来国际碳金融服务业在低碳信贷、碳基金、碳保险、碳货币、碳交易体系方面已获得了长足发展,其推动碳减排、管理碳金融交易风险的作用日益显著.这对于中国城市发展低碳经济,实现减排目标,推进新型城镇化建设都具有非常重要的借鉴意义.通过考察国际碳金融服务业的发展框架,本文探讨了构建中国城市现代碳金融服务体系的具体策略.研究认为中国城市应当大力发展低碳信贷,推进碳交易市场体系建设;积极引导基金行为,创建碳基金体系;充分发挥商业保险作用,促进保险业与低碳经济融合;加快碳金融创新,丰富碳金融产品功能体系.     

关于金融产业集聚与区域金融中心建设的思考

随着经济金融全球化的加速发展,金融产业出现高度集聚的现象,形成了具有不同影响力的金融中心。与实体产业集聚的研究相比,金融产业集聚具有自己的特征,目前在这方面的研究还很不够。金融产业集聚的高度发展形成了金融中心。金融中心建设的成败在于总部金融建设。国外金融中心建设的成功经验为我们加快国际金融中心和区域金融中心建设提供了有益的启示。     

The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk

In this paper, we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis. Using four measures of crisis severity, we examine a data set with over 90 potential explanatory factors employing techniques that are robust to model uncertainty. Four findings are of particular note. First, we find empirical evidence for the pivotal role of pre-crisis credit growth in shaping the real economy's response to the crisis. Specifically, a 1% increase in pre-crisis lending translates into a 0.2% increase in the cumulative loss in real output. Moreover, the combination of pronounced growth in lending ahead of the crisis and the country's exposure to external funding from advanced economies is shown to intensify the real downturn. Economies with booming real activity before the crisis are found to be less resilient to the global shock. Buoyant growth in real GDP in parallel with strong growth of credit particularly exacerbated the effects of the recent crisis on the real economy. Finally, we provide empirical evidence on the importance of holding international reserves in explaining the response of the real economy to the crisis. The accumulation of international reserves mitigated the harmful effects of financial stress on the real economy, in particular when domestic funding via credit is abundant. The results are shown to be robust to several estimation techniques, including those allowing for cross-country spillovers.