FDI,openness and income

This is an empirical study of the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on income. It presents cross-country evidence that inward FDI is positively correlated with income. In addition, an instrument for FDI is constructed to address the issue of endogeneity. The results show that instrumental-variables (IV) estimates of the impact of FDI on income are positive and greater than OLS estimates, similar to the findings on trade in Frankel and Romer (). The evidence in this paper suggests that inward FDI contributes to higher income, and favours the argument of Irwin and Terviö () that trade openness is subject to measurement error – in particular, trade is an imperfect proxy for many income-enhancing interactions between countries.     

江苏省利用外国直接投资与经济增长经验研究

本文分析了江苏省利用外国直接投资和经济增长之间的相关性,同时探讨了外国直接投资和经济增长之间的作用机制。江苏省的数据表明外国直接投资相对规模和经济增长之间存在正相关关系;外国直接投资主要通过人均物质资本、技术进步、产业结构的变动以及对外贸易等途径影响经济增长,但人力资本不是外国直接投资影响经济增长的显著途径。根据上述结论,提出了政策建议。     

外国直接投资对我国进出口规模的影响——基于虚拟变量、协整及格兰杰检验的实证研究

本文根据1980-2004年我国出口、进口和外国直接投资的数据,利用虚拟变量、单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰检验和建立回归模型等方法,就外国直接投资对我国外贸进出口规模的影响进行了实证研究和度量,得出结论:外国直接投资对我国的进出口规模具有促进作用,1996年后随着利用外国直接投资结构的不断优化和调整,在促进外贸增长的贡献效用上也有了大幅度提升,最后提出了相应的政策建议。本文的创新点在于使用虚拟变量衡量定性因素,在建模前进行了充分的前提检验,以保证模型是稳定和有效的。     

外商直接投资对浙江省进出口贸易影响的实证分析

选用1992-2006年浙江进出口贸易和外商直接投资的数据,通过建立计量模型,就外商直接投资对浙江进出口贸易的影响,从总量、结构及贸易效益三方面进行分析。研究表明,外商直接投资对浙江省进出口贸易总额存在积极的拉动效应,对进出口商品构成产生明显的影响作用,通过提高加工贸易比重改变了浙江省的贸易方式结构,还在一程度上促进了浙江外贸竞争力的提高。同时也发现浙江省对外贸易与外资引进中仍存在一些问题,并针对这些问题提出解决对策。     

外商直接投资区位选择动态演变 ——基于城市数据的经验分析

借助京津冀、长三角和珠三角三大经济圈的城市层面数据,本文研究了外资区位选择因素的动态演变规律。研究发现,早期阶段,优惠的引资政策、低廉的劳动力成本、市场规模对于三大经济圈吸收FDI都有决定作用。近年来,政策的优惠已经不是决定这三大经济圈吸收外资的主要因素,集聚效应和基础设施,尤其是邮电通讯设施的作用更为重要。但是,用地成本过高都不同程度地抑制了三大经济圈外资流入。研究还发现:长三角和京津冀地区外资由劳动密集型逐渐向知识、技术密集型转变,但是珠三角地区依旧是劳动密集型外资占主导。     

日本对华直接投资影响因素研究

本文借助于计量经济模型,以1985-2002年的统计数据为基础,对日本对华直接投资的决定性因素进行实证分析。结果表明,日本对华直接投资的主要影响因素包括中国市场容量、中日双边贸易、实际汇率和中日实际工资差异。通过对模型中各变量的比较和归纳,日本对华直接投资动机整体上可以综合为两个方面:一是日本的对外直接投资作为贸易主导型对外直接投资,以扩张本国的边际产业为直接目的;二是中国巨大的市场是吸引日本跨国公司对华直接投资的重要原因。     

中国生产性服务业FDI影响因素实证研究

本文采用动态面板数据分析方法,利用我国20个省市2004-2010年的面板数据,分析我国生产性服务业FDI的影响因素。研究结果表明:(1)整体生产性服务业FDI与市场规模和市场增长潜力呈正向关系,但细分行业中信息传输、计算机服务和软件业,科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业这两个行业并没有像预期的那样会促进其FDI的流入。(2)整体和细分生产性服务业FDI均明显具有追逐制造业FDI的倾向,并且与前期生产性服务业FDI具有正向关系。(3)劳动力工资水平与生产性服务业FDI流入呈正相关,这与绝大多数现有的研究尤其是关于制造业或服务业FDI影响因素的研究结论不同。(4)熟练工人、基础设施系统、政府干预和对外开放程度均与生产性服务业FDI有显著关系,是影响生产性服务业FDI的主要因素。     

Modes of Foreign Direct Investment and Patterns of Trade: An Alternative Empirical Approach

Modes of FDI can be clarified by analysing the changing patterns of trade among host, home and third countries. However, most empirical experiments of foreign direct investment (FDI) determinants have been confined to general characteristics of host countries and multinational enterprises' outward investment activities. This may not clearly characterise the specific characteristics of inward FDI in regard to the host country. Thus, we introduce an alternative approach to clarify modes of FDI by investigating the link between patterns of trade and inward FDI. To empirically test whether our approach is applicable, we choose China during the period 1998–2007. We construct a modified gravity equation of bilateral trade while considering spatially lagged interdependence between host, home and third countries. The problem of endogeneity is controlled by applying the system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation technique. Our findings are consistent with results in existing studies on modes of outward FDI to China and prove that our approach in dealing with the link between patterns of trade and inward FDI has wide applicability to all modes of FDI. We discover there is strong evidence for statistically significant complementarity between bilateral trade and inward FDI within the aggregate trade data. As we decompose the aggregate trade data into final and intermediate goods, we find the motivation concerning export‐platform and complex vertical FDI is very significant. In addition, as we separate the bilateral partners into developing partners and developed partners, we find both bilateral and multilateral linkages are much stronger with developing partners.     

The Role of Local Agglomeration Economies and Regional Characteristics in Attracting FDI: Italian Evidence

The objective of this paper is to test for the importance of local agglomeration externalities in determining inward foreign direct investment (FDI) intensity, viewed as a measure of regional attractiveness to FDI. The links between the degree of FDI inflow penetration into Italy and its determinants at the regional level are examined using alternative fixed effects panel data model specifications, also extended to include spatial effects. It is found that sectoral and regional specificities are relevant in attracting inward FDI into Italy and the different effects of intra‐sector and inter‐sector spillovers can be distinguished. There is also evidence that the importance of agglomeration spillovers connected to the geographical distance varies across regions, indicating both substitution and complementarity effects from FDI inflows into neighboring regions.     

Linking inward/outward FDI and exploitation/exploration strategies: Development of a framework for SMEs

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationships between exploitation/exploration strategy and foreign direct investment (FDI) involving small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Drawing on qualitative data collected from 45 FDI projects reported by 38 SMEs in a small open economy (SMOPEC), we develop an empirically grounded framework and research propositions that suggest inward FDI (into the SME) is associated with exploration driven by a strategic asset-seeking motive, and outward FDI (by the SME) is associated with exploitation driven by market and efficiency-seeking motives. Further, for the SMEs in this study, ambidextrous exploration and exploitation appear complementary and co-occur either simultaneously through an inward FDI project, or sequentially through separate inward and outward FDI projects, respectively. Our findings, however, reveal a lack of clear sequencing between inward and outward FDI, in contrast to previous research that has conceptualised inward FDI as a strategic means to achieve outward FDI. Implications for theory, practice and policy are discussed.     

The impact of bilateral tax treaties: A multi-country analysis of FDI inflows into India

This paper models the role of tax treaties in promoting foreign direct investment (FDI) with the help of panel data for 14 countries for the period 1993–2011. A fixed effects (least squares dummy variable) model is developed that captures macroeconomic factors such as gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income (PCI) in ratio form of home to host country. It also includes bilateral tax treaties as a determinant of FDI inflow. The results show that GDP is a major determinant that is demand driven and per capita income is a major determinant that is supply driven. FDI openness of the home countries and population are also significant determinants. The introduction of the treaty had a positive impact on FDI inflows into India. We get largely significant and positive results for the ‘age of the treaty effect’, especially, in the case of Germany, Switzerland and Japan. The main contribution of the paper is to show that both presence and ‘age of treaty’ are important determinants of FDI flows to India. Further, fundamentals like GDP and PCI are major variables that influence FDI inflows.     

Exports and FDI motivations: Empirical evidence from U.S. foreign subsidiaries

Foreign direct investments (FDI) are supposed to bring into the host countries indirect benefits, usually referred as productivity spillover effects. However, an emerging literature analyses the effect with regard to the export performance of local firms finding inconclusive results. This literature is affected by two main shortcomings: firstly, the role played by FDI motivations is largely disregarded and, secondly, it is difficult to generalise results valid across countries. For these reasons, the aim of the paper is that of testing the effects of U.S. FDI on export intensity at the sectoral level in 16 OECD countries over the period 1990–2001 by bringing together international economics and international business perspective on FDI motivations. Through our data, we disentangle asset seeking and asset exploiting FDI motivations distinguishing also the channels through which the effect is going to occur. The findings show that asset exploiting motivations, and in particular market seeking FDI, are those that affect export intensity to a greater extent.     

FDI与地方政府财政支出结构的关系研究——基于中国东、中、西部地区29个省市区面板数据

利用中国大陆29个省市区1999—2004年的数据,研究东、中、西部地区FDI与地方政府财政投资性支出和消费性支出的关系,结果表明:东部地区的政府财政消费性支出与FDI呈正向关系,投资性支出与FDI呈负向关系,都呈"U"型特征;中部地区的政府财政消费性支出与FDI呈正相关关系,呈倒"U"型特征,而投资性支出与FDI呈负相关关系,呈"U"型特征;西部地区的政府财政消费性支出与FDI呈负相关关系,呈"U"型特征,投资性支出与FDI呈正相关关系,呈倒"U"型特征。     

A pendulum gravity model of outward FDI and export

The paper proposes a pendulum gravity model of outward FDI and export. Outward FDI and export can be complementary or substitute, depending on the development stages of outward FDI. The development of outward FDI is accompanied by advancements in productivity, technology and favorable transformations in factor endowment differences, which can be reflected in the ratio of export to outward FDI. At early stages of outward FDI undertakings, the ratio of export to outward FDI is greater or much greater than the world’s average, outward FDI and export are conjectured to be complementary with our analytical framework. As outward FDI matures, the pendulum swings to the other side, i.e., the ratio of export to outward FDI becomes smaller than the world’s average. Outward FDI and export turn into substitute then. Empirical results and findings from examining two panel data sets support our conjecture and the proposed model, which integrate the two seemingly opposing sets of literature.     

BOOK REVIEW

Using panel data methods to analyze data from 14 Latin American countries from 1978 to 2003, this paper empirically examines the links between foreign direct investment (FDI), local conditions, and economic growth. The results suggest that FDI plays an important role in contributing to economic growth. However, the effect of FDI on economic growth is dependent on host economy–based conditions. The empirical results from this study show that there is a positive interaction effect of FDI with technology gap and a negative interaction effect of FDI with the level of school attainment on economic growth. Furthermore, the empirical results from the FDI equation suggest that inflation, trade, school attainment, and telephone lines are the most determinant of location decisions for foreign investors. To explore the relationship between FDI and economic growth further, this paper examines Granger-causality between FDI and economic growth. Our empirical evidence shows that the direction of causality is from economic growth to FDI and not the reverse for Asian countries. Therefore, the causal link between FDI and economic growth is unidirectional. We also provide evidence that the link between FDI and economic growth is bidirectional for Latin American countries, which indicates that economic growth initially could attract more FDI, which, in turn, would then result in accelerated economic growth.     

论内向型FDI与国际贸易的关系——中国作为东道国的面板数据分析

本文运用固定影响变截距模型,采用1992-2004年我国作为东道国,香港特区、韩国、日本、美国、我国台湾地区、新加坡和德国等七个对中国直接投资最多的国家或地区的面板数据,对我国内向型FDI与国际贸易的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,我国的内向型FDI与国际贸易之间具有显著的互补性,而且内向型FDI对我国的出口具有正的滞后效应。     

Macro Determinants of FDI Inflows to Japan: An Analysis of Source Country Characteristics

This paper examines the source country determinants of FDI into Japan. The paper highlights certain methodological and theoretical weaknesses in the previous literature and offers some explanations for hitherto ambiguous results. Specifically, the paper highlights the importance of panel data analysis, and the identification of fixed effects in the analysis rather than simply pooling the data. Indeed, we argue that many of the results reported elsewhere are a feature of this mis‐specification. To this end, pooled, fixed effects and random effects estimates are compared. The results suggest that FDI into Japan is inversely related to trade flows, such that trade and FDI are substitutes. Moreover, the results also suggest that FDI increases with home country political and economic stability. The paper also shows that previously reported results, regarding the importance of exchange rates, relative borrowing costs and labour costs in explaining FDI flows, are sensitive to the econometric specification and estimation approach. The paper also discusses the importance of these results within a policy context. In recent years Japan has sought to attract FDI, though many firms still complain of barriers to inward investment penetration in Japan. The results show that cultural and geographic distance are only of marginal importance in explaining FDI, and that the results are consistent with the market‐seeking explanation of FDI. As such, the attitude to risk in the source country is strongly related to the size of FDI flows to Japan.     

Impact of Openness on Growth in Different Country Groups

This paper evaluates the impact of openness on growth in different country groups using a panel of 79 countries over the period 1970–98. It distinguishes itself from many existing studies in three aspects: Firstly, both trade and FDI are included as measures of openness. Secondly, countries are classified into high‐, middle‐ and low‐income groups to compare the roles of trade and FDI in these groups. Thirdly, the possible problems of endogeneity and multicollinearity of trade and FDI are carefully dealt with in a panel data setting. The main findings are as follows. Total trade has a general positive impact on growth in all country groups, although the impact from imports is not significant in high‐income countries. FDI has a positive impact on growth in high‐ and middle‐income countries, but not in low‐income countries. With the existing absorptive capabilities, low‐income countries can benefit from both exports and imports, but not from FDI. These findings suggest that trade and FDI affect growth through different channels and under different conditions. The paper also discusses important policy implications.     

Internationalization of multinational banks: a study of foreign direct investment in seven Latin American countries

The article attempts to explore and contrast the different factors that influence the foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions of multinational banks. Employing eclectic theory, an estimation model with panel data from seven Latin American countries is set to test the proposed hypotheses. The results highlight an increase in foreign assets, removal of banking restriction, banking concentration, and capital cost differential in the local banking system as determinants of specific location advantages for attracting banking FDI. Other factors such as cultural proximity and crisis also have a significant impact on banking FDI. Discussions and implications are debated before conclusions are drawn for a future research agenda.     

我国FDI流入的地区差异与影响因素分析——基于1992-2007年省级面板数据

本文利用1992-2007年我国省级面板数据,分析了我国FDI流入的地区差异与影响因素。实证分析结果表明:经济发展水平与FDI规模正相关,且在中西部地区表现明显;劳动力成本与FDI规模反向变动,且东部影响较弱、中西部影响较强;基础设施与FDI规模正相关;对外开放度对东部FDI有正影响,对中部为负影响,而对西部的影响并不显著;沿海区位优势是东部FDI高于中西部的重要原因。最后,针对中西部地区吸引外资提出了政策建议。