FDI对东亚区域经济一体化的影响研究

文章通过使用1990～2008年度的数据,利用时间序列分析方法对东亚国家的FDI与区域内投资和贸易一体化的关系进行了详细的实证研究。研究结果表明:长期而言,在区域生产网络机制的作用下,FDI的流入将促进东亚区域内国家(地区)之间的贸易和投资流动,有利于推动东亚区域经济一体化。在当前东亚区域经济一体化进展缓慢的背景下,通过一系列激励措施吸引外资,是促进东亚区域经济一体化发展的不错选择。     

Human capital,skills and competencies: Varying effects on inward FDI in the EU context

The primary objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive investigation on the role of human capital, skills and competencies in the location of inward FDI by comparing Western (EU15) and Central and Eastern (CEE) European Union (EU) members. We go beyond existing studies by examining an extensive list of traditional and newly advanced measures capturing human capital, even differing schooling systems as well as skills and competencies. We assess, for the first time in the FDI literature, vocational vs. general education, following the Vocational and Educational Programs of the EU as well as quality human capital aspects as captured by international scores. Results indicate a major difference regarding theoretical and vocational education programs for both sub-regions; in addition, a major difference is obtained for particular qualifications in international scores. There is evidence for potential internal and external inefficiency in education in CEE countries in contrast to the EU15, which calls for re-evaluation and re-structuring in their education system towards more efficient use of funds; this would earn investors’ trust and meet labor markets’ demands, thus stimulate more and higher value added foreign investments. Results also point to useful implications for managers who should watch closely education reforms.     

东亚经济一体化的贸易与投资效应

20世纪80年代以来,东亚区域(10+3)经济一体化取得长足的进展,经济区域化给东亚地区带来显著的经济绩效。文章根据区域经济一体化理论,深入地分析了东亚经济区域化带来的区域内贸易和投资效应,并通过计量模型对东亚地区的FDI与贸易的关系进行了检验,发现在东亚FDI与进口和出口都是互补关系,即FDI促进了东亚地区的贸易发展。     

Regional economic integration and multinational firm strategies

This paper analyzes the effects of regional economic integrations on investment patterns among multinational firms. We develop a model in which heterogeneous firms decide on the optimal foreign direct investment (FDI) strategies for serving trade-integrated regions consisting of asymmetric countries: developed and developing nations. Following reduced trade costs within the trade-integrated region, our model shows that integrating into a regional economic zone affects firms with relatively low productivity levels to enter developing nation within the region via complex FDI – a firm activity of engaging in multiple types of FDI. Specifically, we show that depending on the size of the region respective to the home country, complex FDI involves different investment patterns. Using Korean firm- and plant-level data, we specify a binary choice model to link firms’ choice of FDI strategies with their productivity levels and trade-integrated regions. Our empirical results are consistent with the theoretical implications.     

外国直接投资对我国进出口影响的区域差异分析

将全国各省(区、市)根据区域进行划分,组成全国、东部、中部和西部四个横截面,利用1992-2004年的相关数据,建立动态面板数据模型,运用GMM估计方法,对外国直接投资(FDI)对我国进出口贸易的影响进行分析。结果表明,外国直接投资对出口贸易具有创造效应,对进口贸易主要体现为替代效应,进一步比较各区域,发现东部地区的创造效应和替代效应最为显著,中部地区次之,西部地区最弱。     

Enlargement and the EU Periphery: Introduction

The CEEC share of Irish exports has grown fivefold since transition began, with export sales expanding in all sectors. Even at current income levels there remains scope for a further doubling of exports, and trade will grow even more substantially if accession facilitates the CEEC in converging more rapidly on EU living standards. Most analyses predict that the EU15 sectors that face the greatest threats of enlargement‐induced disruption are Food and Textiles, Clothing and Footwear. In the case of Irish Food Processing, however, the prognosis of the present paper is positive since Irish agricultural output differs quite strongly from that of the CEE economies. The adjustment costs associated with industrial dispution, furthermore, are highest in economies with rigid labour markets, whereas the flexibility of the Irish labour market seems to have improved substantially over the last decade or so. Outward FDI from Ireland has grown strongly over the Celtic Tiger era, and Irish multinational firms have been reasonably active in acquiring companies in their sectors in Cental and Eastern Europe. The main worry for Ireland is that the more successful accession states may divert FDI inflows away from Ireland. Micro‐level analysis of the conditions pertaining in some of Ireland's most important foreign‐dominated sectors – information technology, pharma‐chem and instrument engineering – suggests that these threats may be overstated. The leading CEE economies, rather than drawing FDI away from Ireland, may instead contribute to the further development of EU‐wide production networks, making the networks themselves more competitive as global players. The net cost to Ireland of agreements already reached on the financing of enlargement is quite manageable. The cost to Ireland would escalate dramatically, however, if costs and benefits were to be redistributed within the EU in line with current income levels, entailing a substantial transformation of the CAP transfer mechanism.     

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows,Economic Growth,and Trade Balances: The Experience of the New Members of the European Union

The study examines the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth and trade balances of 10 emerging economies in Europe before they joined the European Union. This article uses the Granger causality test to investigate the link between FDI inflows and economic growth for the countries under study. The findings show that gross domestic product growth has a unilateral Granger-cause on FDI inflows for 9 of 10 emerging European economies. However, the results did not show FDI inflows Granger-causing the changes in economic growth of any of the 10 countries. Furthermore, FDI inflows had no or negative effects on trade balances of the majority of the emerging European nations. The policy implications of this study are that host governments in emerging economies must carefully evaluate spillover effects of FDI inflows on their economies before offering significant incentive packages to lure multinational enterprises into their countries.     

Bulgaria's Inward FDI and EU Accession

Bulgaria's extraordinary openness performance in terms of international trade and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) volumes has not been affected by both the country's failure to reach the levels of structural transformation and technological upgrading achieved by Central and Eastern Europe member states and by the failure to comply with European Union (EU) law within certain time frames. Although a substantial literature has evolved on the country's inward FDI due to this performance, empirical microeconomic studies explore the time frame up to EU accession. This study focuses on the effect of EU accession in order to revisit Bulgaria's primary inward FDI determinants via a meso-economic panel analysis of disaggregated data by industry. The findings indicate the neglected importance of extra-EU exports as a driver of Bulgaria's inward FDI and the appropriateness of micro-/meso-approaches to the subject.     

FDI、出口贸易与经济增长的关系——基于VAR模型的实证研究

在开放经济条件下,外商直接投资（FDI）、出口贸易和经济增长的关系一直是国内外学者研究的热点。运用向量自回归（VAR）模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等计量经济学方法,采用1997年至2013年的所有季度数据,对FDI、出口贸易与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究,得出外商直接投资、出口贸易对我国经济增长具有显著的促进作用的结论,因此,今后我国应进一步加强对FDI的产业导向,积极优化外贸环境、改善外贸结构以引进外商直接投资。     

东亚双边进口贸易流量与潜力:基于贸易引力模型的实证研究

本文利用东亚10个主要经济体1995-2004年的面板数据,建立东亚贸易引力模型,对东亚进口贸易流量的影响因素和潜力进行研究。研究显示,国家经济规模、中国-东盟自由贸易区、东盟自由贸易区、进口国制度、国际直接投资、国家间的经济水平差距和地理距离是东亚双边进口贸易流量的主要影响因素。中国香港、泰国、日本和印度尼西亚对东亚的进口潜力较大,中国、马来西亚、菲律宾和新加坡对东亚的进口潜力较小。加强东亚区域内最终产品市场和区域贸易合作的发展、推进东亚各经济体的制度改革和调整、积极合理地引进国际直接投资、加强物流建设与合作,应成为东亚各经济体未来重要的政策取向。     

FDI、对外贸易与经济增长的关系——基于Granger检验及西部面板数据（1998-2005）的研究

伴随全球一体化进程加快和我国经济的发展,经济增长、对外贸易与FDI的关系日益密切。本文通过Granger因果关系检验分析了我国经济增长、对外贸易和FDI的因果关系,并通过对中国西部10省1998～2005年面板数据分析,对三者的关系进行了进一步探讨。     

BOOK REVIEW

Using panel data methods to analyze data from 14 Latin American countries from 1978 to 2003, this paper empirically examines the links between foreign direct investment (FDI), local conditions, and economic growth. The results suggest that FDI plays an important role in contributing to economic growth. However, the effect of FDI on economic growth is dependent on host economy–based conditions. The empirical results from this study show that there is a positive interaction effect of FDI with technology gap and a negative interaction effect of FDI with the level of school attainment on economic growth. Furthermore, the empirical results from the FDI equation suggest that inflation, trade, school attainment, and telephone lines are the most determinant of location decisions for foreign investors. To explore the relationship between FDI and economic growth further, this paper examines Granger-causality between FDI and economic growth. Our empirical evidence shows that the direction of causality is from economic growth to FDI and not the reverse for Asian countries. Therefore, the causal link between FDI and economic growth is unidirectional. We also provide evidence that the link between FDI and economic growth is bidirectional for Latin American countries, which indicates that economic growth initially could attract more FDI, which, in turn, would then result in accelerated economic growth.     

Prospects for the Greek Economy in the Post‐enlargement Era

This paper examines the consequences for Greece of the EU enlargement eastwards. The analysis is based on an evaluation of the Greek economy competitiveness relative to the economies of the acceding and candidate countries during the last decade. Using data disaggregated up to the third digit, the magnitude of Greek inter‐ and intra‐industry trade with the above countries is determined and contrasted to the corresponding trade with the EU. Other issues examined are the effects from factor movements such as the FDI flows and migration, and the macroeconomic effects from the reallocation of EU funds. Enlargement is expected to exert positive trade and FDI effects on the Greek economy, a negative effect on future economic growth as a result of budgetary reductions and an uncertain effect on labour markets from migration. A non‐exploited trade potential of Greece with the Balkan countries creates further opportunities for regional development.     

Friend or Foe? On the role of institutional reforms in the investment development path of Central and East European economies

Many existing studies on emerging markets and firms have concentrated on the separate effects of institutional reforms and quality of the institutional infrastructure for attracting inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and fostering outward FDI. We argue that both these perspectives should be considered in an interplay, as there are links between inward and outward FDI in a country's economic development, which is captured by the investment development path (IDP) concept. Moreover, while predominant attention has been paid to emerging markets, little has so far been done to evaluate the sustainability of the institutional development, including later post-transition stages. We extend the IDP with insights from the institutional theory and conduct a comparative analysis of the effects of institutional reforms on IDP paths of ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) post-communist European Union (EU)-members. We find that while most of the studied post-transition economies follow a quadratic relationship between the net outward investment (NOI) position and each country's economic development, the role of institutional reforms is not in all cases accelerating the movement through the stages of the IDP. We attempt to explain the ambiguous role of institutions in an ensuing detailed discussion of the investigated countries.     

中国—欧盟贸易条件研究

在中欧经贸关系高速发展的背景下,对中国-欧盟贸易条件的研究相对缺乏。本文运用较详尽的贸易数据计算得出中国-欧盟双边商品贸易的贸易条件,得出1992-2003年间中国-欧盟价格贸易条件恶化但收入贸易条件改善的结论。并通过进一步实证分析,得出其影响因素为:中国经济增长、欧盟经济增长、中国对欧盟出口商品结构和在华的外商投资。     

基于贸易引力模型的FDI与省区双边贸易流量的实证分析

运用贸易引力模型分析FDI和各省市区国际贸易的关系,对2007年我国30个省市区和26个国家或地区的双边贸易面板数据进行实证研究,结果表明各省市区FDI与国际贸易之间存在互补关系,从三大经济区域来看,东部FDI对国际贸易的弹性最大,其次是中部地区,西部地区最小。基于资源禀赋差异的垂直贸易体制加剧了FDI投资于我国的趋势。各省市区的贸易模式取决于贸易双方的经济规模和地理距离。双边贸易流量的规模与各自的经济总量呈正比,双方的地理距离(运输成本)构成了两地之间贸易的阻力因素,地理位置成为阻碍中部和西部地区国际贸易发展的重要因素。     

FDI、进出口贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于中部地区的面板数据

选取1998-2011年中部地区六个省的FDI(外商直接投资)、进出口总额和国内生产总值相关数据,建立面板数据模型,对中部地区FDI、进出口贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:三者之间具有长期均衡关系,且FDI与进出口贸易对经济增长均具有正向影响,但FDI对经济增长的影响力度没有对外贸易对经济增长的影响力度大。中部六省除了应要继续扩大利用外资的总量规模外,更应进一步提高利用外资的质量和效率;增强进出口贸易对经济增长的带动力;注重经济软环境建设,完善政府各部门的服务效率,树立为企业服务理念,改革行政管理体制,强化市场价格导向功能。     

AN OVERINVESTMENT CYCLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE?

Prior to the Asian crisis, easy liquidity conditions contributed to credit expansion and overinvestment in the East Asian economies until they were hit by a deep recession. Similarly to the developments in the tiger economies in the 1990s, Central and Eastern European (CEE) grew rapidly from 2001 to 2007, due to foreign capital inflows. But the current global financial turmoil and economic downswing pulled the CEE economies into the maelstrom of the crisis. With the Asian experience in mind, the aim of this paper is to analyze whether overinvestment due to easy liquidity conditions possibly emerged and contributed to the crisis in CEE.     

欧盟在华直接投资对中国与欧盟贸易的影响

本文运用面板数据的方法,研究了欧盟在华直接投资对中国与欧盟贸易的影响,结论表明,欧盟在华直接投资促进了中国对欧盟各成员国的进出口贸易,但影响较小,影响中、欧贸易的主要因素是中国和欧盟各成员国的经济实力(GDP)。这表明欧盟在华投资企业的市场战略主要是针对中国广阔的国内市场的。文章最后部分对如何促进欧盟对华直接投资和扩大中、欧贸易提出了建议。     

The Impact of EU Preferential Trade Agreements on Foreign Direct Investment

Although North–South preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are expected to affect foreign direct investment (FDI), there is not much evidence to date on the impact of EU PTAs on the pattern of FDI. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of EU PTAs on the outward stocks of FDI of the EU. We estimate a model based on the knowledge‐capital theory of the multinational enterprise over the period 1995–2005 using a sample of 173 host countries. Explanatory variables include measures of the level of bilateral protection and a dummy to capture the impact of deep integration provisions of PTAs. A dynamic panel model with fixed effects is used in order to take into account the dynamic behaviour of FDI and the heterogeneity bias. Results show that EU FDI is both horizontal and vertical. The level of EU protection affects FDI negatively, while the impact of the tariffs applied by host countries varies across groups of partner countries. Deep integration provisions affect EU FDI positively.