The development of a standardized student evaluation form

The original purpose of student evaluations was to provide feedback to the instructor to improve his/her teaching. However, the use of student evaluations in assessing promotion and tenure decisions is becoming increasingly apparent. Given that students represent one valuable source of evaluation data, the task involves gathering the information so as not to bias or influence the results. Thus, the objectives of this report are to discuss the methodology and pitfalls in the construction of a data collection instrument, and produce a “model” student evaluation form that may serve as the basis for establishing validity by having the academic community put it to the test.     

Escalation bias: Does it extend to marketing?

Escalation bias implies that managers favor reinvestments in projects that are doing poorly over those doing well. We tested this implication in a marketing context by conducting experiments on advertising and product-design decisions. Each situation was varied to reflect either a long-term or a short-term decision. Besides these four conditions, we conducted three replications. We found little evidence of escalation bias by 365 subjects in the seven experimental comparisons. J. Scott Armstrong has been a professor at The Wharton School since 1968. During this time he has also been a visiting professor in Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, and Argentina. He is a founder and past editor of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting. In addition to forecasting, he has published research on strategic planning, the scientific method, social responsibility, and survey research methods. holds an M.Sc. (Technology Management) and B.Comm. (Marketing) from the University of Saskatchewan, Canada. Nicole’s dissertation research focuses on the internationalization process of software developers. In particular, she examines “deviations” in international linkage development by small firms, with a focus on marketing management issues. Her other research interests relate to entrepreneurial growth, the marketing/manufacturing interface, and strategic planning processes. Barbara Safranek worked as a marketing consultant in Japan and was then co-president of the Friends of Japan (Tokyo, Japan) for three years. Currently she is vice-president of Japanese Equities-Sales at S.G. Warburg & Co.     

Fallacious convergence? Williamson’s real wage comparisons under scrutiny

The idea of manifest real-wage convergence for unskilled workers in the latter half of the nineteenth century stems from an article from 1995 by Jeffrey G. Williamson. That article presented real wage comparisons of unskilled urban workers for seventeen countries. Sweden, along with the rest of Scandinavia, is found to be an influential case in accounting for much of the alleged factor price convergence taking place. This paper takes a closer look at all the three steps that have to be taken in order to establish real wage comparisons, focusing on Sweden in relation to the US and the UK. The most important findings are twofold. First, that the US–Sweden wage gap is considerably smaller for manufacturing than for building workers, and second, that the rate at which Sweden’s real wages approached the American and the British has been grossly overestimated. Swedish real wages did grow rapidly, but not as rapidly as Williamson’s comparison will have us to believe, because his real wage series does not constitute a representative account of the Swedish unskilled real wage experience. It is argued that, as we suffer from a serious paucity of data for narrow and comparable samples of late nineteenth century unskilled workers, resorting to more encompassing wage measures is a more viable option. That also implies a questioning of the American unskilled wage series, which makes considerably slower progress than the wage series for manufacturing workers.     

French economic cycles: a wavelet analysis of French retrospective GNP series

Although 50 years of scientific work has been invested in building retrospective economic time series, their reliability is still debated, a good example being the two competing nineteenth century French GNP series. Instead of trying to bring up some new details to gauge their respective accuracy, we propose a different route, i.e. testing the intrinsic features of these two series, in absolute terms first, then by benchmarking them to a non-retrospective time series. In order to do that, we rely on new mathematical tools—wavelet spectrum analysis—developed in signal processing. This leads to a new approach, which separates the accuracy of a series between amplitude and time variations, and brings nuanced conclusions as to which of the two series tested is the best: indeed, since a trade-off is almost inescapable between the two criterions of accuracy, the statistical quality of one retrospective time series tends to linger either on one side (amplitude level) or the other (time variations). Our study also shows that variance distribution along the time axis is a good proxy for complex retrospective series accuracy.

On choosing the appropriate measure of association when analyzing rating scale data

This paper reviewed the current state of the literature on the appropriateness of various correlation measures when data are ordinal. Emphasis was on the use of these measures as input to multivariate analysis. Based on the review, four correlation indexes were further studied via a simulation design. The simulation results indicated that the polychoric correlation outperformed product-moment, Spearman’s rho and Kendall’s tau-b measures on the basis of bias and squared error criteria. The present study suggests that the chapter investigating pairwise correlations may be closed and attention may now be directed towards non-normal data and actual multivariate analysis with correlation matrices.     

Great expectations and broken promises: misleading claims,product failure,expectancy disconfirmation and consumer distrust

Previous research in the product failure literature shows that such failures have important implications for evaluations of the target product, and even for evaluations of closely related products. The current studies identify distrust as an additional byproduct of negative expectancy disconfirmation and show that such perceptions are capable of producing even broader carryover effects—pertaining to unrelated products/companies. The effects of distrust are identified through tests of mediation and moderation, and are shown to be distinct from other processes known to relate to product failure. The results also show an asymmetry in the effects of positive and negative disconfirmation, consistent with the predicted negativity bias in judgments of generalized trust versus generalized distrust. Finally, generalized distrust continued to exert a negative influence despite the opportunity to directly examine the second product, and these effects were actually augmented to some extent. The results have implications for the expectancy disconfirmation and product failure literatures, as well as the defensive bias model of distrust.     

Filter-design and model-based analysis of trends and cycles in the presence of outliers and structural breaks

A large proportion of today’s econometric literature addresses the question of whether long run GDP follows a random walk or a log linear trend with one or more structural breaks. Much less attention is paid to the modelling of the long run trend and cycle component. In most studies, the trend is simply eliminated by taking first differences of the log of the series without considering the implications of this kind of trend removal for growth and cycles. Filter design and model-based approaches are used here to assess the long run trend and the cyclical component of Chile’s per capita GDP from 1820 to 2007. Careful attention is paid to outliers and trend breaks and how they influence the appraisal of the components. We show that filter and model-based approaches give comparable results if the filter and model parameters are not chosen mechanically but tailor-made for the time series to be investigated.     

Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860�C1988

In this paper, we examine the large shocks due to major economic or financial events that affected U.S. macroeconomic time series on the period 1860–1988, using outlier methodology. We show that most of these shocks have a temporary effect, showing that the U.S. macroeconomic time series experienced only few large permanent shifts in the long term. Most of these large shocks can be explained by major recessions and World War II as well as by monetary policy for the interest rate data. We also find that some economic events seem to have the same effect (immediate, transitory or permanent) on a number of macroeconomic series. Finally, we show that most macroeconomic time series do not seem inconsistent with a stochastic trend once we adjusted the data for these shocks.     

UK World War I and interwar data for business cycle and growth analysis

This article contributes new time series for studying the UK economy during World War I and the interwar period. The time series are per capita hours worked and average capital income, labor income, and consumption tax rates. Uninterrupted time series of these variables are provided for an annual sample that runs from 1913 to 1938. We highlight the usefulness of these time series with several empirical applications. The per capita hours worked data are used in a growth accounting exercise to measure the contributions of capital, labor, and productivity to output growth. The average tax rates are employed in a Bayesian model averaging experiment to reevaluate the Benjamin and Kochin (J Political Econ 87:441–478, 1979) regression.     

Exploring deception and puffery in television advertising

Public policy decisions dealing with deceptive advertising have relied extensively on case-by-case adjudication with the Federal Trade Commission. Unfortunately, behavioral evidence has not been considered in the vast majority of these cases. The final determination rests with the Commission’s own expertise in judging an advertisement’s “capacity to deceive.” Consumer response data are not required, although recent developments suggest the FTC is seriously considering the inclusion of meaningful behavioral evidence in policymaking and adjudicative proceedings. This study is one of a series dealing with dimensions of perceived deception across different respondent populations (including students, lawyers, housewives, children, and minority groups). The focus here is on the semantics of deception, i.e., the way in which subjects evaluate selected television commercials which were unofficially rated for deception by FTC staff attorneys. The factor analytic paradigm provides one approach for generating summaries of viewer’s evaluative (affective) responses, and thereby providing some normative or benchmark data of potential value in the regulatory process.     

The effects of unification: markets,policy, and cyclical convergence in Italy, 1861–1913

This paper uses time-series evidence on construction movements to examine the convergence of regional business cycles in the decades that followed Italy’s unification. The aggregate series point to cyclical convergence, but a sector-level analysis traces this result to the decline in differentiated “regional-policy” shocks. The regional market cycles diverged, as regions specialized in different sectors of production; market-cycle convergence is observed only within the “industrial triangle,” the regions of which also developed different specializations. This suggests that the balance between growing interdependence and growing differentiation is not general, as the current literature presumes, but specialization-specific.     

Do Kondratieff waves exist? How time series techniques can help to solve the problem

Although the long-wave phenomenon has long been discussed in economic, social and political sciences, there is still highly controversial discussion about the methods of providing empirical evidence of such swings as regular cycles in economic time series. This article gives an overview about the historical development of time series methods to investigate such long-term oscillations in historical time series and to proof their regularity. It starts with a brief presentation of the methods used by Kondratieff and shows them in the context of classical business cycle analysis. It continues with ARIMA methodology and spectral analysis, which have been found to be appropriate when long waves are conceived as growth cycles. We then introduce the filter-design approach that was seen as a perfect solution to the hitherto unsolved problem of dividing trend and long waves in the low-frequency domain. A detailed discussion of the stochastic trend hypothesis and its relevance for long-wave analysis follows before outliers and trend breaks within stochastic models and their relevance for long waves are illustrated by means of the GDP per capita of the United Kingdom for 1830–2006.     

Human capital and economic growth: Sweden 1870–2000

This paper presents newly constructed series on human capital in Sweden 1870–2000. The estimates are based on enrolment in different forms of education, stretching as far back as 1812, and the size and age distribution of the population within age range 15–65 years. The secular accumulation of human capital has closely matched the long-term trend in aggregate productivity and both grew at a rate of 2.4% annually. Our estimates differ significantly from the data attributed to Sweden in the international short-cut estimates of human capital for the period since 1960. The basic question addressed is about causality: whether human capital causes economic growth or if causality goes in the other direction. We address this problem with modified Granger-causality tests. According to our results, changes in the stock of human capital have in a systematic way preceded changes in aggregate productivity up to the structural crisis in the 1970s. This allows us to conclude that human capital has been a causal factor in Swedish economic growth since the industrialisation. However, after 1975, the growth of human capital has not been able to match the demands of the third industrial revolution. The time series of human capital stocks as well as average years of schooling for Sweden, 1870–2000, are available at: .     

Military conquest and sovereign debt: Chile,Peru and the London bond market, 1876–1890

As a result of the War of the Pacific (1879–1883), Chile conquered Peruvian and Bolivian territories rich in nitrates and guano. We conduct econometric tests for structural breaks in the time series of the government bonds for Chile and Peru between 1876 and 1890 in order to examine the effects of the changes in resource endowments on the investors’ perceptions of the risk premia of Chilean and Peruvian securities. Our results reveal that investors were extremely pessimistic about the prospects of Chilean, and especially Peruvian debt prior to the war. Early Chilean victories that anticipated the transfer of the richly endowed provinces to Chile caused significant increases in the price of Chilean securities. But such was the low regard with which investors viewed the Peruvian government that the fall of Lima caused an increase in the price of Peruvian bonds on the hope that Chile would assume some of the responsibility for them. Endowments, reputations, and the countries’ financial conditions figure prominently as the driving forces behind the investors’ behavior.     

Conservation or energy development: Consumer perceptions of alternate solutions to the energy crisis

The purpose of this study was to identify segments of the population on the basis of what they believe would ensure energy for the future—conservation or energy/technological development. To the extent that technology is perceived to be the solution, a potential danger exists that consumers will not commit to an energy-conscious lifestyle except as required by increasing energy costs. The respondents were 692 systematically sampled residents of Alabama. A follow-up survey of 73 non-respondents indicated that nonresponse bias was absent in terms of demographic and social-psychological characteristics, perceptions of the energy crisis, and level of energy use. Distinct differences emerged among the segments (energy development, conservation, or neutral) which indicate that policy makers must be concerned with emphasizing that technological breakthroughs are not the solution to the energy crisis. Note This study was funded by a grant from the Energy Assessment Program, School of Mines and Energy Development, the University of Alabama.     

UK money demand 1873–2001: a long-run time series analysis and event study

This paper performs a multivariate cointegration analysis of UK money demand 1873–2001, and illustrates how a long-run time series analysis may be conducted on a data set characterized by turbulent episodes and institutional changes. We suggest accounting for the effects of the two world wars by estimating additive data corrections, thereby allowing the propagation of war-time shocks to be fundamentally different from the transmission of peace-time innovations. In addition, the corrected series may be used in counterfactual event studies to assess the impacts of special events. In the empirical analysis we find a single equilibrium relationship relating velocity to opportunity costs, and we identify a significant link between excess money and inflation. After accounting for the turbulent periods, the equilibrium structure is reasonably stable over a period of 130 years. The empirical analysis was carried out using the OxMetrics software, see Doornik (2002). Ox procedures to estimate the vector equilibrium correction model with additive corrections are available from the author upon request.     

Mismeasuring long-run growth: the bias from splicing national accounts—the case of Spain

Comparisons of economic performance over space and time largely depend on how statistical evidence from national accounts and historical estimates are spliced. To allow for changes in relative prices, GDP benchmark years in national accounts are periodically replaced with new and more recent ones. Thus, a homogeneous long-run GDP series requires linking different temporal segments of national accounts. The choice of the splicing procedure may result in substantial differences in GDP levels and growth, particularly as an economy undergoes deep structural transformation. An inadequate splicing may seriously bias the measurement of GDP levels and growth rates. Alternative splicing solutions are discussed in this paper for the particular case of Spain, a fast-growing country in the second half of the twentieth century. It is concluded that the usual linking procedure, retropolation, is seriously flawed as it tends to bias GDP levels upwards and, consequently, to underestimate growth rates, especially for developing countries experiencing structural change. An alternative interpolation procedure is proposed.     

Green marketing strategies: an examination of stakeholders and the opportunities they present

As green marketing strategies become increasingly more important to firms adhering to a triple-bottom line performance evaluation, the present research seeks to better understand the role of “green” as a marketing strategy. Through an integration of the marketing, management, and operations literatures, an investigative framework is generated that identifies the various stakeholders potentially impacted through the environmentally friendly efforts of a firm. Specifically, the inter-connected nature of the core business disciplines of marketing, management (both strategy and human resources), and operations are examined as controllable functions within an organization from which strategies can be enacted to affect a firm’s stakeholders. The prior research in these areas is examined to identify potential research opportunities in marketing while also offering a series of representative research questions that can help guide future research in marketing.     

The effects of mid-career military enlistment on civilian career prospects: evidence from the Australian banking industry during World War II

This paper uses personnel records of employees from an Australian bank to analyse the labour market consequences of career interruptions due to voluntary military service during the Second World War. The records contain the employees’ career position and pay histories, and pre-war outcomes are used to control for selection bias caused by non-random enlistment. It is shown that, despite losing human capital during the War, upon their return veterans did not face a wage penalty relative to non-volunteers. Finally, evidence from non-wage outcomes suggests that the absence of a wage penalty was a form of positive discrimination by the Bank.

Pride in contemporary sport consumption: a marketing perspective

Pride feelings and processes have been under-studied in marketing and consumer research although they have major consequences for marketers and consumers. In this article, a multidimensional process view of pride is offered by reporting the findings of a qualitative interpretive study on soccer fans’ possessions. Four types of pride are put into light, i.e., introspective, vicarious, contagious, and conspicuous. Their antecedents and consequences are developed. A series of theoretical and managerial implications are finally suggested. Making consumers proud of the brand/company may lead to stronger commitment and loyalty, increased consumption (new products, upgrades and merchandise), positive WOM, and co-creation of value.