积极财政政策的可持续性分析

本文分别从当前宏观经济形势、我国政府债务风险和公共部门投资的挤出效应三个方面考察了我国积极财政政策的可持续性。认为我国当前的经济形势下 ,积极财政政策的淡出还为时尚早 ;我国单纯的国债风险并不高 ,但是我国政府的综合债务风险却相当大 ,控制我国综合债务风险的关键是控制存量 ;我国公共部门对民间投资的挤出效应不明显 ,当前民间投资不活跃的主要原因是另一种“挤出效应” ,即对民间投资的歧视和限制 ,要改变这种情况的主要方法是改革     

A modern history of fiscal prudence and profligacy

Drawing on a newly collected historical dataset of fiscal stocks and flows, we analyze the determinants of variation, both across countries and over time, in how fiscal policy responds to increases in the government debt-to-GDP ratio. The fiscal data comprise revenues, primary expenditures, interest bill, and government debt for 55 countries for up to two hundred years. The policy response (increase in the primary fiscal balance in response to debt increases) is found to be significantly weaker when sovereign borrowing costs are low, inflation is high, and potential economic growth worsens unexpectedly. These results are robust to political factors.     

Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits

We investigate the impact of fiscal stimuli at different levels of the government debt‐to‐GDP ratio for a sample of 17 European countries from 1970 to 2010. This is implemented in an interacted panel VAR framework in which all coefficient parameters are allowed to change continuously with the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. We find that responses to government spending shocks exhibit strong nonlinear behavior. While the overall cumulative effect of a spending shock on real GDP is positive and significant at moderate debt‐to‐GDP ratios, this effect turns negative as the ratio increases. The total cumulative effect on the trade balance as a share of GDP is negative at first but switches sign at higher levels of debt. Consequently, depending on the degree of public indebtedness, our results accommodate long‐run fiscal multipliers that are greater and smaller than one or even negative as well as twin deficit and twin divergence behavior within one sample and time period. From a policy perspective, these results lend additional support to increased prudence at high public debt ratios because the effectiveness of fiscal stimuli to boost economic activity or resolve external imbalances may not be guaranteed.     

Sovereign risk,public debt,dollarization, and the output effects of fiscal austerity

The goal of this paper is to investigate effects of fiscal policy on output as a response to an external shock at different levels and currency compositions of public debt. Central to our analysis is the mutual relationship between sovereign risk and public debt on the one hand, and the linkage between sovereign risk and private credit spreads on the other. We show that fiscal austerity is conducive to real economic activity when initial government debt is high, its foreign currency share is important, and the link between sovereign and corporate spreads is strong.     

Twin deficits and the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies in Lebanon

This paper examines empirically using time series econometric models the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies, as well as, the relationship between current account and budget deficits in the emerging small open economy of Lebanon. The empirical results point to unsustainable debt and exchange rate policies. Other empirical results support the existence of a uni-directional causal relationship, in the short run, between the budget and current account deficits, indicating that rising fiscal deficits have started to put even more strain on the current account deficits and on the national public debt. To avoid a future depreciation of the exchange rate and perhaps a fiscal and currency crises, the government will have to timely introduce austerity measures to curb the negative implications of its rising budget and current account deficits and debt on Lebanon's economy.     

Assessing Economic and Fiscal Reforms in Lebanon: A Dynamic CGE Analysis with Debt Constraints

Since the early 1990s, Lebanon has undertaken a number of economic reforms, covering international trade and internal fiscal policy issues in particular. Simultaneously, debt has been skyrocketing, partially justified by reconstruction needs after the end of the civil war. Fostering economic growth seems to be the only way out of the debt trap, but reforms intended to stimulate growth may well have adverse short-run effects on public and external deficits. We construct a dynamic open-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with debt constraints in the sense that external debt requires physical capital as collateral. The CGE model allows us to study the effects of a number of important economic policy issues, such as fiscal policy reform, World Trade Organization (WTO) membership, and foreign direct investment, in a multisectoral dynamic setting under the realistic assumption that debt constraints relax when the economy starts growing. Included in the results are reports on scenarios of trade liberalization and political stabilization.     

宏观税率对国债依存度影响的实证分析

近年来,国内有些学者认为积极的财政政策应逐渐淡出,然而2008年国际金融危机的发生,使得我国在今后的一段时间内,将继续实施积极的财政政策。本文以改革开放以来为研究时间段,选取国债依存度Y为因变量,国债依存度的滞后一期Y1和宏观税率X1为自变量,通过协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,有效地揭示了它们之间的相关关系。研究结果表明宏观税率对国债依存度存在着负向作用。本文通过以上结论,以期为政府继续实施积极财政政策,为保持我国经济平稳较快发展提供理论支持。     

财政风险与国债结构管理--从国债再融资角度的分析

国债风险是财政风险中的核心内容，控制风险的思路不能囿于国债总量的控制，还要注重国债结构管理所能发挥的作用。本文从国再融资资风险的角度，分析了国债结构管理在防范财政风险中的作用，并对我国国债现状进行了实证分析。最后，笔者提出，为降低我国财政风险，目前应该增加长期债券比例，形成一个均衡的债务期限。     

On the need for fiscal constraints in a monetary union

The desirability of fiscal constraints in monetary unions depends critically on whether the monetary authority can commit to following its policies. If it can commit, then debt constraints can only impose costs. If it cannot commit, then fiscal policy has a free-rider problem, and debt constraints may be desirable. This type of free-rider problem is new and arises only because of a time inconsistency problem.     

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination,Macroeconomic Stability,and Sovereign Risk Premia

In standard macroeconomic models, equilibrium stability and uniqueness require monetary policy to actively target inflation and fiscal policy to ensure long‐run debt sustainability. We show analytically that these requirements change, and depend on the cyclicality of fiscal policy, when government debt is risky. In that case, budget deficits raise interest rates and crowd out consumption. Consequently, countercyclical fiscal policies reduce the parameter space supporting stable and unique equilibria and are feasible only if complemented with more aggressive debt consolidation and/or active monetary policy. Stability is more easily achieved, however, under procyclical fiscal policies.     

Fiscal consolidations and bank balance sheets

We empirically investigate the effects of fiscal policy on bank balance sheets, focusing on episodes of fiscal consolidation. To this aim, we employ a very large data set of individual banks' balance sheets, combined with a newly compiled data set on fiscal consolidations. We find that standard capital adequacy ratios such as the Tier-1 ratio tend to improve following episodes of fiscal consolidation: for the median bank in our sample, a 1% of GDP fiscal consolidation increases the Tier-1 capital ratio by around 1.5 percentage points over two years. Our results suggest that this improvement results from a portfolio re-balancing from private to public debt securities which reduces the risk-weighted value of assets. In fact, if fiscal adjustment efforts are perceived as structural policy changes that improve the sustainability of public finances and, therefore, reduce credit risk, the banks' demand for government securities should increase relative to other assets.     

Fiscal Fan Charts: A Tool for Assessing Member States' (Likely?) Compliance with EU Fiscal Rules

This paper sets out a methodology for constructing fan charts for the government deficit and debt ratios over the medium term. It relies on information contained in Stability/Convergence Programme Updates, a model of the relevant stochastic process (for example, that of real GDP) or processes, and a parameter estimate of the sensitivity of the primary budget balance to the output gap for the member state under consideration. A model of the dynamic deficit–debt relationship allows the impact of random output growth to work its way through the fiscal arithmetic in a consistent and traceable way to produce fan charts over a five‐year forecast horizon. The initial set of fiscal fan charts included here for Ireland use the indicative public finance projections set out in its 2011 Update. The methodology makes the standard assumption of no fiscal policy response to any change in the budgetary position over the period such as could arise from changes in growth rates. Governments will, however, generally be in a position to adjust fiscal policy towards meeting a specific target, such as the 3 per cent Maastricht Treaty deficit target. A second set of fan charts is included that indicates how the probabilistic range of fiscal outcomes could be affected by a tightening of fiscal policy in 2013–15.     

Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov‐Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary‐Fiscal Policy Interdependence

In this paper, I propose an econometric technique to estimate a Markov‐switching Taylor rule subject to the zero lower bound of interest rates. I show that linking the switching of the Taylor rule coefficients to the switching of the coefficients of an auxiliary uncensored Markov‐switching regression improves the identification of an otherwise unidentifiable prevalent monetary regime because of the presence of the zero lower bound. Using a Markov‐switching fiscal policy rule as the auxiliary regression, I apply the estimation technique to U.S. data. Results show evidence of monetary and fiscal policy comovements, with monetary policy reacting weakly to inflation when fiscal policy is focused on real activity as opposed to debt stabilization, and vice versa.     

欧元区主权债务危机与欧元的前景

欧元区并不是一个真正意义上的最优货币区,各国之间差异较大,财政政策与货币政策难以协调,欧元的福利外溢和隐形担保作用激励逆向选择和道德风险,这是促成欧元区债务危机的重要推手。欧元区主权债务危机短期内将削弱欧元的稳定和国际地位,但欧元和欧元区的"系统重要性"可以保证欧元不会崩溃。欧元区如能借机务实推动改革,中长期欧元仍将在国际货币体系中发挥重要作用。     

FISCAL DEFICITS AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Although fiscal adjustment was urged on developing countriesduring the 1980s to lead them out of economic malaise, considerableuncertainty remains about the relations between fiscal policyand macroeconomic performance. To illustrate how financial markets,private spending, and the external sector react to fiscal policies,the behavior of holdings of money and public debt, private consumptionand investment, the trade balance, and the real exchange rateis modeled for a sample of ten developing countries. The studiesfind strong evidence that over the medium term, money financingof the deficit leads to higher inflation, while debt financingleads to higher real interest rates or increased repressionof financial markets, with the fiscal gains coming at increasinglyunfavorable terms. Consumers respond differently to conventionaltaxes, unconventional taxes (through inflation or interest andcredit controls), and debt financing, in ways that make fiscaladjustment the most effective means of increasing national saving.Private investment—but not private consumption—issensitive to the real interest rate, which rises under domesticborrowing to finance the deficit. Contrary to the popular presumption,in some countries private investment increases when public investmentdecreases. There is strong evidence that fiscal deficits spillover into external deficits, leading to appreciation of thereal exchange rate. Fiscal deficits and growth are self-reinforcing:good fiscal management preserves access to foreign lending andavoids the crowding out of private investment, while growthstabilizes the budget and improves the fiscal position. Thevirtuous circle of growth and good fiscal management is oneof the strongest arguments for a policy of low and stable fiscaldeficits.      

中国金融机构不良资产的财政风险问题分析

本从财政风险的角度对金融机构的不良资产进行分析。按照国际上公认的财政风险的划分标准，金融机构的不良资产属于政府隐含的或有负债，正是在这个意义上，金融机构的不良资产意味着政府的财政风险。对我国而言，在国有产权体制下，在国家采取的金融支持政策下，国有银行的不良资产问题更易于转化为财政风险。为此应采取包括建立公共财政体制、提高财政透明度以及建立或有储备等在内的措施予以妥善应对，以防范和化解由此引发的财政风险。     

Optimal money and debt management: Liquidity provision vs tax smoothing

Conventional wisdom on public debt management says that liquidity demand should be satiated and that tax rates should be smoothed. Conflicts between the two can arise when government bonds provide liquidity. Smoothing taxes causes greater variability in fiscal balances, and therefore in the supply of government liabilities. When prices are flexible, and can jump to absorb fiscal shocks, the tradeoff between liquidity provision and tax smoothing is eased; when they conflict, optimal policy subordinates tax smoothing to satiating liquidity demand. When price fluctuations impose real costs, conflicts necessarily arise and optimal policy gives primacy to neither goal.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching

A growing body of evidence finds that policy reaction functions vary substantially over different periods in the United States. This paper explores how moving to an environment in which monetary and fiscal regimes evolve according to a Markov process can change the impacts of policy shocks. In one regime monetary policy follows the Taylor principle and taxes rise strongly with debt; in another regime the Taylor principle fails to hold and taxes are exogenous. An example shows that a unique bounded non-Ricardian equilibrium exists in this environment. A computational model illustrates that because agents' decision rules embed the probability that policies will change in the future, monetary and tax shocks always produce wealth effects. When it is possible that fiscal policy will be unresponsive to debt at times, active monetary policy (like a Taylor rule) in one regime is not sufficient to insulate the economy against tax shocks in that regime and it can have the unintended consequence of amplifying and propagating the aggregate demand effects of tax shocks. The paper also considers the implications of policy switching for two empirical issues.     

A comparison of nominal and indexed debt under fiscal constraints

This paper makes a welfare comparison between the issuance of price-indexed and nominal public debt in the presence of fiscal constraints, viz. a debt constraint, a deficit constraint and a combination of both. Distortionary taxes or public consumption are regulated to avoid the violation of the relevant fiscal constraint(s). Under a debt constraint indexed debt is generally preferred, while under a deficit constraint the results are more mixed. Introducing inflation persistence and raising the maturity of the debt tend to increase the magnitude of the welfare differences between the two types of debt. Welfare differences are further affected by the degree to which public consumption and tax revenues are indexed to actual versus structural nominal GDP.     

财政限制下政府债务与通货膨胀研究

随着人口老龄化,许多发达经济体都步入了财政压力时代,政府对养老金的承诺大大高于财政收入,政府为了实现承诺将利用发行新债务进行融资,这将带来未来的高税收预期.随着债务水平和税率水平的上升,人们对税收的容忍度将下降,从而触碰财政限制的可能性增大.在采取固定税率情况下,调整税收不再能稳定债务,必须采取政策转变来应对.在财政限制之前债务增长与政策调节如何相互作用,若采用货币政策的被动调节来满足稳定债务,那么政府债务将影响到通货膨胀,从而使货币政策失去对通货膨胀的控制,进而需要通过财政政策来解决通胀问题.