Statistical Disclosure Control Methods for Census Frequency Tables

This paper provides a review of common statistical disclosure control (SDC) methods implemented at statistical agencies for standard tabular outputs containing whole population counts from a census (either enumerated or based on a register). These methods include record swapping on the microdata prior to its tabulation and rounding of entries in the tables after they are produced. The approach for assessing SDC methods is based on a disclosure risk–data utility framework and the need to find a balance between managing disclosure risk while maximizing the amount of information that can be released to users and ensuring high quality outputs. To carry out the analysis, quantitative measures of disclosure risk and data utility are defined and methods compared. Conclusions from the analysis show that record swapping as a sole SDC method leaves high probabilities of disclosure risk. Targeted record swapping lowers the disclosure risk, but there is more distortion of distributions. Small cell adjustments (rounding) give protection to census tables by eliminating small cells but only one set of variables and geographies can be disseminated in order to avoid disclosure by differencing nested tables. Full random rounding offers more protection against disclosure by differencing, but margins are typically rounded separately from the internal cells and tables are not additive. Rounding procedures protect against the perception of disclosure risk compared to record swapping since no small cells appear in the tables. Combining rounding with record swapping raises the level of protection but increases the loss of utility to census tabular outputs. For some statistical analysis, the combination of record swapping and rounding balances to some degree opposing effects that the methods have on the utility of the tables.     

Two schools of risk analysis: A review of past research on project risk

Risk research can be generally categorized into two schools: risk as an objective fact and risk as a subjective construction. Both schools have different risk definitions, epistemological dimensions, and analytical methods, and tend to recommend different policies for managing risks. This study aims to locate the position of past studies on project risk found between the two schools of risk analysis and to help understand their basic assumptions and viewpoints by reviewing articles published during the last 10 years in two project management journals: the International Journal of Project Management and Project Management Journal. There are 171 articles collected from both journals. They are categorized into four groups: project management system, subjective perception, irrational behavior in risk management, and subjective construction. This study describes and discusses the basic assumptions, viewpoints, and tendencies usually held by each group, and it indicates the position of each group found between the two schools. It also develops some discussion on the starting point of both schools of risk analysis and their significance in directing practices of project risk management.     

基于风险感知的采购行为决策模型

从风险感知的角度,构建了采购决策的动态模型。首先,采购组织确定采购目标,而采购组织中的成员在环境、个体、组织、供应商、原材料等多种因素的影响下形成个体风险感知;其次,通过与采购组中的其他成员的信息交流,个体将修正自身的风险感知,并且个体通过其风险感知与风险承受能力比较得出个体采购决策,而个体采购决策综合加权最终形成群体决策。最后,群体决策绩效将在下一期中修正个体的认知偏差,从而进一步影响其采购决策。     

The effects of risk and time on entrepreneurship

The paper deals with the socioeconomic background of entrepreneurship. It is especially concerned with the actual relationship between entrepreneurship and risk and time perception (time preferences). It can be predicted that in societies characterized by risk aversion and a preference for short-term risk seeking, there will be optimum conditions for the development of entrepreneurship. The converse is true of societies characterized by short-run risk-averse behaviour or long-term risk seeking. Proxies are proposed for risk and time preference in OECD economies, and tests are developed. Empirical investigation verifies theoretical predictions. It is established that over the period examined (2000–2004), the economies in question have shifted to a non entrepreneurial territory where risk and time are combined. This change is capable of producing conditions which favour entrepreneurial development.     

CEO succession with gender change in troubled companies: The effect of a new woman CEO on firm risk and firm risk perceived

The replacement of the CEO is one of the first actions a troubled company may take to recover from a critical situation. In this paper, we analyze the change in firm risk and firm risk perception when women are replacing men as CEOs of troubled companies. The analyses are based on a comprehensive dataset covering all registered companies in Norway from 2005 to 2014. We argue that a new woman CEOs increase the chances of improving the risk situation of troubled companies. Building on CEO succession and social identity theories, we study the firm risk situation under the lenses of risk perception and firm risk, and we find that a newly appointed woman CEO, following a man, tend to decrease the level of risk of the company. Furthermore, we find counterbalancing effects on these changes given the moderation effect of women on the board.     

Market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis

We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we use a parsimonious CDS pricing model to estimate the probability of default (PD) and the loss given default (LGD) as perceived by financial markets. In our empirical results the estimated LGDs perceived by financial markets stay comfortably below 40% in most of the samples. Global financial indicators are positively and strongly correlated with the market perception of sovereign credit risk; whilst macroeconomic and institutional developments were at best only weakly correlated with the market perception of sovereign credit risk.     

Human values and beliefs and concern about climate change: a Bayesian longitudinal analysis

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of human values on beliefs and concern about climate change using a longitudinal design and Bayesian analysis. A sample of 298 undergraduate/master students filled out the same questionnaire on two occasions at an interval of 2 months. The questionnaire included measures of beliefs and concern about climate change (i.e., perceived consequences, risk perception, and skepticism) and human values (i.e., the Portrait Values Questionnaire). After controlling for gender and the respective baseline score, universalism at Time 1 was associated with higher levels of perceived consequences of climate change and lower levels of climate change skepticism. Self-direction at Time 1 predicted Time 2 climate change risk perception and perceived consequences of climate change. Hedonism at Time 1 was associated with Time 2 climate change risk perception. The other human values at Time 1 were not associated with any of the measures of beliefs and concern about climate change at Time 2. The results of this study suggest that a focus on universalism and self-direction values seems to be a more successful approach to stimulate public engagement with climate change than a focus on other human values.     

Does monetary policy influence banks’ risk weights under the internal ratings-based approach?

This paper studies the extent to which monetary policy may affect banks’ perception of credit risk and the way banks measure risk under the internal ratings-based approach. Specifically, we empirically analyze the effect of different monetary policy variables on banks’ risk weights for credit risk. We present robust evidence of a strong, statistically significant relationship between monetary policy easing and lower implicit risk weights of banks using the internal ratings-based approach. Further, we show that the recent prolonged period of accommodative monetary policy has been instrumental in establishing this relationship. The presented findings have important implications for the prudential authority, which should be aware of the possible side effects of monetary policy on how banks measure risk.     

The materiel manager's role in executive management

The ability to achieve advancement for materiel management is a potential that few have challenged and achieved. Reasons for this lack of growth vary in degree, but the opportunities in the 1990s will be tremendous. The political skill and team leadership ability expressed by materiel managers throughout hospitals will ultimately result in whether this challenge is met or not. Materiel managers will need certainly to change their perception of their own role, as well as the perception of hospitals, in order to achieve this. The road will be challenging, but with the winning attitude, skill building, and proven management ability, I believe that materiel managers will become successful in hospital executive management in the 1990s.     

The impact of stakeholder heterogeneity on risk perceptions in technological innovation

Managing risk has been widely acknowledged as a crucial managerial task in the development of new technology. More recently, the acceptance of new technologies has increasingly been influenced by secondary stakeholders, some of which are difficult to identify, or whose concerns are not easily reconciled. This paper develops a conceptual framework based on the management of technology and research & development literature, stakeholder theory, risk and social judgment to describe how traditional approaches based on reducing uncertainties through estimating probabilities may not work for social uncertainties; different heuristics are needed to understand and resolve such heterogeneous stakeholder perspectives. We contribute to the discourse by describing how risk perceptions among stakeholders vary, and how this may change over time. The framework suggests that the perception of primary stakeholder towards a specific innovation is ‘Standard’ when information is well known, but becomes riskier when information is unclear. For secondary stakeholders, when there is a low degree of imperfect information, the stakeholder relationship is an ‘Irritant’ but becomes increasingly ‘Dangerous’ when information becomes ambiguous. We conclude with implications for management and future research.     

Exploring risk dimensions in the Indian software industry

The success of software projects is quite subjective in nature and is fettered by many risks, the perception of which varies from individual to individual and largely depends on the demographic characteristics of the executives and even the characteristics of the project. This study aims to identify and gauge the software risk dimensions and analyze the differences of perception among executives toward software risks. The contributions of this study untangle the issues underlying risks in the software industry and associates these issues with the perception of the “human” factor present in the industry.     

Organizational Accidents: A Systemic Model of Production versus Protection

Production pressure is often cited as an underlying contributory factor of organizational accidents. The relationship, however, between production and safety protection is complex and has not been adequately addressed by current theories regarding organizational accident. In addressing this gap, this paper uses the methodology of system dynamics to develop a causal model to address the dynamic interaction between management of production and protection, which can accumulate in an organizational accident. A case study of a fatal rock fall accident in Tasmania, Australia was conducted based on the developed model and is used to uncover the intricate dynamics linking production pressure, risk tolerability, perception of safety margin, and protection efforts. In particular, the study demonstrates how a strong production focus can trigger a vicious cycle of deteriorating risk perception and how increased protection effort can, ironically, lead to deterioration of protection.     

Environmental transparency and investors' risk perception: Cross-country evidence on multinational corporations' sustainability practices and cost of equity

We explore whether a greater amount of environmental disclosure can reduce a firm's ex ante cost of equity. This could occur because the quantity of environmental information changes investors' risk perception of the company, thereby influencing its ex ante cost of equity. Our study is a cross-country analysis of 1481 multinational corporations (MNCs) across 43 countries and territories from 2013 to 2019. Firstly, we measure investors' risk perception as a firm's ex ante cost of equity by employing five different valuation models, all based on equity analysts' forecasted data. We then investigate whether large quantities of environmental information disclosed by an MNC affect its ex ante cost of equity. We find evidence that investors price the amount of environmental disclosure. More environmental disclosure decreases a firm's ex ante cost of equity because it lessens investors' information asymmetry. However, this relationship is non-linear. Once the amount of environmental disclosure data exceeds a certain threshold level, a firm's ex ante cost of equity will rise again. Our empirical results also suggest that non-financial factors at the country level play a role in shaping how investors perceive a firm's riskiness. Locating the firm in a country with better environmental performance and a higher score of the human development index can reduce investors' risk perception and result in a lower ex ante cost of equity. A policy implication of our findings is that a global standardised and effective corporate sustainability reporting is needed to provide investors a more holistic view for evaluating the riskiness of their investments.     

企业破产清算内部控制的风险预警研究

破产清算是企业的特殊状态。本文在研究企业破产清算内部控制的基础上,利用风险管理的理论和方法,尝试构建了集风险识别、风险评估、风险应对和风险监控于一体的企业破产清算内部控制的风险预警机制。     

The effects of environmental risk information on auditors' decisions about prospective financial statements

This study tests a model of how auditors make decisions when presented with environmental risk information in the context of a task that requires their professional opinion on a company's forecasted information. Auditing provided a small-world context where declarative and procedural knowledge have been well documented in terms of the rules for analysing financial information. This research uses a conceptual modelling approach to determine auditors' perceptions of environmental risk information and the effects on their judgement and decision choices when issuing an examination report supporting forecasted financial statements. Auditors were provided with environmental risk information that they had to process and integrate in their decision-making. The results demonstrated that auditors act on unfamiliar declarative knowledge using their standard procedural knowledge. The results from eighty-four senior auditors displayed evidence that auditors' perception of environmental risk information is downplayed compare to the traditional accounting information during their judgement and decision choice phases. When confronted with conflicting information, auditors tend to place more reliance on financial rather than environmental risk information. One of the implications of this study is that auditors should be trained to handle non-traditional information, such as environmental risk.     

Risk decomposition,estimation error,and naïve diversification

How to achieve adequate diversification is important in portfolio construction. Efficient markets should not reward an investor for taking on risk that can be diversified away. Hence, when minimizing risk exposure, investors need to measure what part of total portfolio risk is systematic and what part can be diversified away. I examine several methods for decomposing total portfolio risk into systematic and diversifiable components and then carry out simulations to compare cross-sectional distributions of estimated and true risk as number of stocks increases in portfolios constructed using naïve diversification. Ordinary least squares estimators of diversifiable risk are relatively robust, and their cross-sectional distributions closely track the cross-sectional distributions of the corresponding true diversifiable risk. Other proposed estimators of diversifiable risk as well as all estimators of systematic risk have cross-sectional dispersion much greater than the corresponding true risk although, with one exception, bias is small. Results are relatively robust to the choice of method for generating market returns and to the underlying asset pricing model but not to random security betas. The simulation analysis also shows that risk and magnitude of shocks due to diversifiable risk are not negligible, even for 300-stock portfolios.     

THE UNDERPINNINGS OF COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT

Abstract.  This paper surveys the history and current status of country risk assessment. The motivation is to understand why it is that country risk assessors have such a poor track record in anticipating the onset of financial crises. The development of the field reflects changes in the composition of international capital flows. These changes have confounded a definition of country risk, especially if a definition is centered on a particular event. It is then argued that the field has reached an impasse, and this impasse is related to the methods of abstraction and the current crisis of vision within the science of economics. This crisis of vision, as it pertains to theories of financial crises, has led to increased reliance on quantitative methods in the field of country risk. The paper concludes by proposing a new direction for the field, the first step towards which is to recognize that the object of country risk assessment is not to monitor for a particular event or symptom of financial crisis, but, rather, to monitor for a particular state of the economy.     

Does the market perceive a difference in rating agencies?

A frequent and recent topic in the financial press concerns the two major rating agencies, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. The reported perception is that Moody’s is less credible. In this study, we determine whether the market shares this perception and whether this perception carries an economic cost. Since there are many features attached to a bond issue that affect its yield, differences in bond rating cannot be tested in isolation. This paper estimates the impact of differences in ratings as well as several other key bond features (call and sinking fund features, and syndication) of public issues of corporate bonds using regression analysis over the period 1986 through 1996. All features tested except the sinking fund option for doubling and tripling the amount of funds retired are found to be significant including the variable measuring the market’s perception of the informational content of ratings from the two rating agencies. Thus, we conclude that the market finds value in the ratings from each agency, but that the value is not symmetrical between the two agencies. There is not enough evidence that the market values one agency over the other.     

The perception of teaching methods and the retraining of mature managers

The comfortable progression from the childhood perception of career through college or university to a job for life, is being shattered for many managers. Mid-life they are now being forced to change career and retrain. This paper looks at their perceptions of learning methods, often related to the choice of career and confirmed by both experience and actual training. The paper discusses how preferred individual styles can be classified according to their response to the Kolb Learning Style Inventory (LSI) and by their Egograms and offers advice on how the methods used for retraining can be tailored to individual perceptions.During the research study upon which this article is based, it was noted that the Kolb classification most often associated with senior managers (Assimilator), did not fall into what could be termed definable “personality type”.