The stock market and investment

Changes in stock prices have substantial explanatory power forU.S. investment, especially for long-term samples, and evenin the presence of cash flow variables. The stock market dramaticallyout-performs a standard q-variable because the market-equitycomponent of this variable is only a rough proxy for stock marketvalue. Although the stock market did not predict accuratelyafter the crash of October 1987, the errors were not statisticallysignificant. Parallel relationship for Canada raise the puzzlethat Canadian investment appears to react more to the U.S. stockmarket than to the Canadian market.     

Patient product availability through the use of systems thinking: developing coherent relationships

The traditional techniques of quality improvement, such as just-in-time delivery, can only go so far in dealing with materiel management issues. A further step is necessary: the implementation of systems thinking. This type of thinking focuses on the interconnectedness of all the members that exist throughout the system. This article explains the nature of systems thinking and how it can be used in materiels management to describe and improve the availability of materiels needed.     

The materiel manager's role in executive management

The ability to achieve advancement for materiel management is a potential that few have challenged and achieved. Reasons for this lack of growth vary in degree, but the opportunities in the 1990s will be tremendous. The political skill and team leadership ability expressed by materiel managers throughout hospitals will ultimately result in whether this challenge is met or not. Materiel managers will need certainly to change their perception of their own role, as well as the perception of hospitals, in order to achieve this. The road will be challenging, but with the winning attitude, skill building, and proven management ability, I believe that materiel managers will become successful in hospital executive management in the 1990s.     

THE IMPACT OF PRICES AND CONTROL POLICIES ON CIGARETTE SMOKING AMONG COLLEGE STUDENTS

Smoking among youths and young adults rose throughout the 1990s. Numerous policies were enacted to try to reverse this trend. However, little is known about the impact these policies have on the smoking behavior of young adults. This article uses a dichotomous indicator of daily smoking participation in the past 30 days, an ordered measure representing the frequency of cigarette consumption, and a quasi-continuous measure of the number of cigarettes smoked per day on average to examine the impact of cigarette prices, clean indoor air laws, and campus-level smoking policies on the smoking behaviors of a 1997 cross section of college students. The results of the analysis indicate that higher cigarette prices are associated with lower smoking participation and lower levels of use among college student smokers. Local- and state-level clean indoor air restrictions have a cumulative impact on the level of smoking by current smokers. Complete smoking bans on college campuses are associated with lower levels of smoking among current smokers but have no significant impact on smoking participation. Bans on cigarette advertising on campus as well as bans on the sale of cigarettes on campus have no significant effect on the smoking behavior of college students.     

The second fundamental theorem of asset pricing: a new approach

This article presents a new definition of market completenessthat is independent of the notions of no arbitrage and equivalentmartingale measures. Our definition has many advantages, allshown herein. First, it preserves the Second Fundamental Theoremof Asset Pricing, even in complex economies. Second, under ourdefinition, the market can be complete yet arbitrage opportunitiesexist. This is important in practice, and stands in contrastto the traditional definitions. Third, under the assumptionsof no arbitrage and when used in the standard models, our definitionis equivalent to the traditional one.     

Quote disclosure and price discovery in multiple-dealer financial markets

We examine the effects of price disclosure on market performancein a continuous experimental multiple-dealer market in whichseven professional market makers trade a single security. Thedealers trade with one another and with computerized informedand liquidity traders. Our key comparison is between fully publicprice queues (pretrade transparent market) and bilateral quoting(pretrade opaque). We find that opening spreads are wider andtrading volume is lower in the opaque markets due to highersearch costs there. More importantly, however, higher searchcosts also induce more aggressive pricing strategies, so thatprice discovery is much faster in the opaque markets.     

The significance of the market portfolio

Arguments for creating a market to allow trading the portfolioof all endowments in the entire world, the 'market portfolio',are considered. This world share market would represent a radicalinnovation, since at the present time only a small fractionof world endowments are traded. Using a stochastic endowmenteconomy where preference are mean variance, it is shown thatcreating such a market may be justified in terms of its contributionto social welfare. It is also argued that creating a marketfor world shares is attractive for certain reasons of robustnessand simplicity.     

The dividend-price ratio and expectations of future dividends and discount factors

A dividend-ratio model is introduced here that makes the logof the dividend-price ratio on a stock linear in optimally forecastfuture one-period real discount rates and future one-periodgrowth rates of real dividends. If ex post discount rates areobservable, this model can be tested by using vector autoregressivemethods. Four versions of the linearized model, differing inthe measure of discount rates, are tested for U.S. time series1871-1986 and 1926-1986: a version that imposes constant realdiscount rates, and versions that measure discount rates fromreal interest rate data, aggregate real consumption data, andreturn variance data. The results yield a metric to judge therelative importance of real dividend growth, measured real discountrates, and unexplained factors in determining the dividend-priceratio.     

Credit risk and financial instability

Recent advances in modelling credit risk bring much greaterdiscipline to the pricing of credit risk and should promotediversification by penalizing concentrations of credit riskwith greater allocations of economic capital. Although thesemodels perform well with regard to high-frequency hazards, theyare ill equipped to deal with the low-frequency, high-severityevents that are likely to be the most serious threat to financialstability. Cognitive biases in estimating the probability ofsuch losses may lead to disaster myopia. In periods of benignfinancial conditions, disaster myopia is likely to lead to decisionsregarding allocations of economic capital, the pricing of creditrisk, and the range of borrowers who are deemed creditworthy,that make the financial system increasingly vulnerable to crisis.Alternative policy measures to counter disaster myopia are considered.