民营企业家政治关联、政府干预与多元化经营

本文以2004-2007年中国民营上市公司为研究对象,分析了民营企业家政治关联对企业多元化经营的影响,研究显示,同企业家不具有政治关联的民营企业相比,企业家具有政治关联的民营企业更倾向于进行多元化经营.进一步分析了政府干预对政治关联与多元化经营关系的影响,结果发现,政府干预越是严重的地区,企业家具有政治关联的民营企业越倾向于进行多元化经营.     

社会地位会影响企业融资约束吗?——来自A股民营上市公司的经验证据

本文从企业的社会性对经济性行为影响的视角研究社会地位对民营企业融资约束的影响。以2009—2018年沪深A股民营上市公司为研究样本,研究发现社会地位越高的企业面临的融资约束程度越小。将企业所在地区的市场化程度以及企业高管的金融背景纳入考虑之后,研究发现相比于市场化程度较高的地区,在市场化程度较低地区,社会地位缓解企业融资约束的效果更为显著;相较于拥有金融关联的企业,没有金融关联的企业提升社会地位更有利于缓解融资约束。且进一步研究发现,在市场化程度较低地区,没有金融关联的企业社会地位缓解融资约束的效果最为显著。这些结论不仅拓展了企业“社会属性”对其“经济性”行为的影响研究,而且能够为民营企业缓解融资约束提供有益借鉴,尤其是处在市场化程度不高地区,且不存在金融关联的民营企业。     

中国民营企业政治关联的模式研究

在中国转型背景和关系主导型社会结构下,民营企业的政治关联广泛存在,并对民营企业的经营和发展产生非常深刻的影响。主要研究了民营企业建立政治关联的模式,研究发现中国民营企业政治关联的模式包括违法模式、合法模式和政企利益一体化模式,明智的民营企业经营者应该避免违法的模式,而要充分借助合法模式和政企利益一体化模式来取得企业经营的成功。研究有助于理性地认识民营企业的政治关联问题、成长途径及行为特征,促进学术探索、民营企业经营和政府政策制定。     

民营企业政治关联、融资约束与现金价值

本文以2006—2012年间在中国沪深证券交易所上市的A股民营企业为样本,实证检验了政治关联对民营企业现金价值的影响.研究表明,政治关联民营企业现金持有的边际价值显著低于非政治关联民营企业,而且民营企业的政治关联程度越高,其现金持有的边际价值越低.进一步研究还发现,两类企业现金价值差异的根源在于政治关联民营企业现金持有量的投资效率较低.研究认为民营企业应加强内部公司治理,以抑制政治关联对企业现金价值的负效应;各级政府也应努力改善民营企业的市场竞争环境,弱化民营企业的寻租动机.     

政绩推动、政治关联与民营企业投资扩张

地方政府以行政方式推动民营企业投资扩张是造成投资过度和产能过剩的重要原因。以2004-2011年民营上市公司为样本,本文实证分析了地市级政府面临的政绩压力对民营企业投资的影响,并重点考察了政治关联在其中的作用以及政绩压力对信贷资源配置的影响。研究发现,控制地区固定效应后,地方政府政绩压力影响辖内民营企业投资,政绩压力特别是经济增长压力越大时,辖内民营企业过度投资越严重。政治关联弱化了政绩压力对民营企业投资的推动作用,地方政府面临较大的政绩压力特别是经济增长压力时,政治关联民营企业过度投资程度相对较低。进一步研究还发现,地方性政治关联对政绩压力推动民营企业投资扩张的弱化作用更为显著。政绩压力特别是经济增长压力增大时,地方政府同样有着强烈的动机推动非管制行业民营企业扩张投资。信贷资源在政绩压力影响政治关联民营企业投资行为方面扮演了重要角色。本文的相关结论对于理解地方政府推动企业投资扩张造成产能过剩以及政治关联的经济后果具有一定的参考价值。     

政治关联、政治关联成本与财政补贴关系的实证研究——来自深、沪证券市场的经验数据

文章以2006-2011年间我国民营上市公司为样本,实证研究了民营企业的政治关联如何影响企业维持政治关联的成本,政治关联成本又如何影响企业的财政补贴获取,从而进一步明晰了政治关联影响企业获取政府资源的内在机理。研究结果表明,政治关联的确会使民营企业产生一定的政治关联成本,并且民营企业与政府间的关联程度越高,需要付出的政治关联成本也越高;而民营企业的政治关联成本越高,相应从政府获得的财政补贴收入也越高。     

转轨制度背景下政治关联与中小企业绩效关系分析

笔者以我国中小上市公司为样本,探讨转轨制度背景下政治关联与中小企业绩效之间的关系,由此来判断中小企业建立政治关联是具有效率促进作用还是阻碍稀缺资源有效配置的寻租手段.基于面板数据模型的实证检验结果表明,中小企业的政治关联无论与企业财务绩效还是市场绩效均存在显著的负相关关系,而且在市场化程度越低、政府支配资源越多和法治水平越差的地区,政治关联的这种负向绩效效应越强.本研究结果支持中小企业建立政治关联的寻租假说,即中小企业建立政治关联时付出的非生产性寻租成本不但加大了企业的负担,而且扭曲了社会稀缺资源的配置,从长远而言不利于企业绩效的提升和持续发展.     

政治关联与城市公用事业民营企业成长 ——基于首家公交民营企业案例研究

在转型期的中国，政治关联是影响民营企业进入城市公用事业的关键因素。本文采用案例研究的方法，选取我国首家进入城市公交行业的民营企业作为研究对象，探索研究了该企业成长过程中的政治关联的变化及其对企业成长的影响。研究发现，首先，对于一个企业而言，政治关联来源可以分为三个层面：关键政府官员的扶持、企业家政治身份、企业家以外的高管团队成员政治身份。其中，对于政府主导型政治关联民营企业，关键政府官员的扶持对企业成长起决定性作用，而企业家和高管团队成员的政治身份对企业成长并没有显著影响。其次，政治关联对民营企业成长具有“双刃剑”的作用--驱动作用和约束作用。驱动作用主要表现在企业政治关联有利于其突破政府管制型壁垒和获得政府补助，从而分别促进企业进入公用事业和成长，约束作用主要表现在企业政治关联会导致民营企业非相关多元化、增加政治风险，从而抑制企业成长。     

政治关联与政府干预对民营企业信号传递的影响——基于自愿性内部控制鉴证报告的经验证据

信号传递是企业市场价值得以实现的重要途径。本文基于自愿性内部控制鉴证报告披露的视角,从政治关联与政府干预两方面研究外部制度因素对民营企业信号传递的影响。研究发现,政治关联对民营企业自愿披露内部控制鉴证报告的信号传递行为具有积极影响;政治关联的方式和政府背景对内部控制鉴证报告披露的影响程度存在差异。政府干预环境抑制民营企业自愿披露内部控制鉴证报告的信号传递行为;同时政府干预环境加剧了政治关联对内部控制鉴证报告披露的影响。结论表明,研究政治关联与政府干预环境对民营企业信号传递动机与行为的影响,对我国证券监管部门制定相关政策具有一定的启示意义。     

政治关联与企业的契约实施环境

本文基于世界银行2003年和2005年的调查数据,对不同所有制企业的契约实施环境进行了比较。研究发现,民营企业的契约实施环境显著差于其他所有制类型的企业。在此基础上,我们进一步考察了政治关联对企业契约实施环境的影响。实证结果表明:(1)与掌握实权的政府官员建立政治联系能够改善民营企业的契约实施环境,而且这些官员的地位越高,其影响越显著;(2)政治关联是否能够改善企业的契约实施环境与官员的类型有关,如果官员属于"帮助企业发展"类型的,则与此类官员的政治关联能够改善企业在本省和外省的契约实施环境;(3)董事会中有政府官员以及总经理是由政府任命不利于企业契约的实施环境的改善;(4)随着法律制度的不断完善和市场化进程的推进,各类政治关联对企业契约实施环境的积极作用正在被其消极作用所抵消。因此,消除阻碍民营企业发展的各种制度和政策障碍仍然是推动民营企业发展的根本之道。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。     

风险视角下企业治理结构和研发创新——基于委托代理模型的研究

本文基于委托代理模型,从风险的视角研究企业治理结构对研发创新能力的影响。本文构建了一个包含创新活动的委托代理模型进行理论分析,利用动态DEA 模型测算创新能力,并使用2015-2018年我国上市制造业企业数据进行实证检验。实证部分检验了理论结论:委托代理问题不利于企业提升研发创新能力,且客观风险和主观风险厌恶会加剧该负面影响。基于此,本文认为上市企业应根据企业自身研发活动特点有针对性地改善企业治理结构,提出了适当延长代理人任期、推动股权激励计划、提升代理人的风险承担能力等建议。