Factors affecting electricity generation in China: Current situation and prospects

China has attracted worldwide attention due to the global economic and environmental effects of its rapid economic growth over the last 20 years, with particular attention given to the country's accelerating energy consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. China's electricity sector is particularly important for both of these issues as it accounts for nearly half of its greenhouse gas emissions and even greater proportions of the country's demands for primary fuel resources. In order to better understand how these issues may progress in an economy changing as fast as China's, this paper develops a framework that can be used to help model the electricity sector's future development. The framework builds upon key technological and socio-economic drivers, including those affecting electricity demand (e.g., economic growth, structure, energy efficiency, urbanization, and change in per capita income) and electricity supply (e.g., deregulation, initiatives to promote natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy, air pollution regulations, price developments for coal and natural gas, and changes in generation technology). The framework serves as a foundation for a scenario exercise on the greenhouse gas and fuel consumption impacts of different developmental paths for China's electricity sector. These scenarios and their implications for emissions and fuel consumption are presented in a subsequent article.     

Determinants of pro-environmental consumption: The role of reference groups and routine behavior

This paper investigates the determinants of pro-environmental consumption, focusing on the role of reference groups and routine behavior. We study the factors that explain whether or not people have installed residential solar energy equipment or have subscribed to green-electricity programs, and the factors that influence the intensity of buying organic food. In addition to demographic characteristics and environmental attitudes, we consider the following categories of determinants: economic and cognitive factors (income, estimated price premium, level of information on environmentally-friendly goods); consumption patterns of reference persons; own consumption patterns in the past. Using a unique data set from a survey conducted in the region of Hanover, Germany, we find the following: (1) Economic and cognitive factors are significant covariates of all three kinds of pro-environmental consumption. Their influence is greatest in the case of green electricity. (2) Consumption patterns of reference persons are significant covariates of all three kinds of pro-environmental consumption. Their influence is greatest in the case of organic food. (3) The intensity of buying organic food is greater the longer people have been consumers of these goods.     

Building vintage and electricity use: Old homes use less electricity in hot weather

This paper studies whether electricity use in newer or older residential buildings rises more in response to high temperature in a region of Southern California. Peak electricity demand occurs at the highest temperatures which are predicted to increase due to climate change. Understanding how newer buildings differ from older buildings improves forecasts of how peak electricity use will grow over time. Newer buildings are subject to stricter building energy codes, but are larger and more likely to have air conditioning; hence, the cumulative effect is ambiguous. This paper combines four large datasets of building and household characteristics, weather data, and utility data to estimate the electricity–temperature response of different building vintages. Estimation results show that new buildings (1970–2000) have a statistically significantly higher temperature response (i.e., use more electricity) than old buildings (pre1970). Auxiliary regressions with controls for tiered electricity prices, number of bedrooms, income, square footage, central air conditioning, ownership, and type of residential structure partially decompose the effect. Though California has had extensive energy efficiency building standards that by themselves would lower temperature response for new buildings, the cumulative effect of new buildings is an increase in temperature response. As new buildings are added, aggregate temperature response is predicted to increase.     

Household Response to Optional Peak-Load Pricing of Electricity

I investigate the impacts of voluntary time-of-day (TOD) rates on residential demand for electricity. My analysis is based on a sample of a survey, which provides cross-sectional data on electricity consumption and economic/demographic features for both TOD and non-TOD households in Japan. This information is used to develop an almost ideal demand system for the TOD electricity consumption during the summer. The results show that (1) household response to the high price of the peak period is relatively modest, and (2) the relative magnitudes of the price and selection effects depend on the ownership of water heaters.     

Energy Efficiency and Rebound Effects: An Econometric Analysis of Energy Demand in the Commercial Building Sector

It is widely recognized that the adoption of energy saving innovations can induce an increase in the usage of the corresponding technologies and thus can possibly increase energy consumption. Among other concerns is that uncertainties regarding the magnitude of this “rebound effect” can deter policy makers from promoting energy efficiency. This paper analyzes the rebound effects of the adoption of energy efficient technologies in commercial buildings. Based upon a structural model of technology adoption and subsequent energy demand at the building level, the empirical results are that energy efficiency can reduce electricity use by about 35 % and natural gas consumption by about 50 %.     

Scenario development in China's electricity sector

The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in (vol.) of this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.     

经济增长与能源消费：来自山东省的经验证据

本文运用协整分析和误差修正模型技术．探讨山东省经济增长与能源消费之间的关系。实证研究结果表明，山东省经济增长与能源消费存在长期均衡关系．并存在从经济增长到能源消费的单向因果关系；经济增长与能源消费之间的关系是非线性的，因而不能从能源消费的线性变化推测出经济增长率的变化；山东省经济受电力消费的影响较大，为了在2010年单位地区生产总值能源消耗降低20％的政策目标．山东电力消耗较高的产业必须加以调整。     

Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran

This study examines the short- and the long-run relationship between electricity demand and its determinants in the Iranian residential sector. The study employs unit root tests, cointegration and error-correction models on annual time series for the period, 1967–2009. The results show that electricity price is insignificant and income elasticity is lower than unity. The most influential factor influencing household electricity demand is cooling degree days. The number of electrified villages (an indicator of economic progress) is statistically significant, showing that economic progress has a positive impact on electricity demand. Electricity demand is forecast until 2020. The results show that under the most probable projection, electricity consumption in the residential sector will grow at an annual rate of 29% and 80% by 2014 and 2020, respectively.     

Methods in open policy analysis: An application to California's building energy codes

Have building energy codes lowered energy consumption, and have their benefits outweighed costs? Using 2000 Census data, I estimate household energy expenditures by decade of home construction, controlling for household and home characteristics. I find homes built in the 1980s used $35 less in electricity and $46 less in natural gas, per year, compared to 1970s era homes. For Sacramento, energy codes pass a cost-benefit test when low-end policy costs are used, but fail with base-case costs. This study also clarifies how a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for a representative household fits into a comprehensive CBA.     

Household-level analysis of the impacts of electricity consumption on welfare and the environment in Cambodia: Empirical evidence and policy implications

Cambodia’s biomass consumption is the most dominant energy source at residential sector, and its use is mainly for cooking and heating which could affect health due to indoor air pollution. The biomass is mainly sourced from wood cutting and forest-encroachment that could impact the environment due to reduction of forest at considerable scale. By using the data 2015 of Cambodia Socio-Economic Survey, the study investigates the impacts of electricity consumption on household welfare, such as earnings and the school performance of children in the households, and further to investigate its impacts on the environment. The study found that household’s access to electricity with ability to spend on electricity consumption contributes to the positive household welfare effects and environment via a reduction of biomass consumption, and the more household spends on biomass, the more they are prone to sickness of lung problem. The study also confirmed the important role of human capital formation for the positive impact on the welfare and the environment. These findings lead to policy implications that would improve affordable access to electricity to ensure that all households can use electricity for their basic needs and productivity, and also to reduce the negative effects on environment.     

Heterogeneous preferences and investments in energy saving measures

We investigate whether risk, time, environmental, and social preferences affect single-family homeowners’ investments in the energy efficiency of their house using established experimental measures and questionnaires. We find that homeowners who report to be more risk taking are more likely to have renovated their house. Pro-environmental and future-oriented renovators, i.e. renovators with lower discount factors, live in homes with higher energy efficiency. Pro-social preferences as measured in a dictator game relates positively to the energy quality of renovated houses. Controlling for the energy efficiency of houses, we further find that energy consumption as measured by heating and electricity costs is lower for future-oriented and pro-environmental individuals.     

Elasticity of substitution and technical efficiency: evidence from the US electricity generation

ABSTRACT

The implications of national or regional energy policies for technical efficiency and environmental outcomes in electricity generation depend on fossil fuel input substitution. This study uses state level data to examine fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) substitution in electricity generation under increased availability of natural gas in the United States. We observe that changes in elasticities of substitution from pre-2009 to post-2009 differ across states suggesting that the effects of increased availability of inexpensive natural gas on electricity generation have been spatially heterogeneous. We rely on the observed heterogeneity to assess the effects of fossil fuel input substitution on technical efficiency and CO₂ emissions. The results reveal that state level elasticity of substitution between natural gas and coal has a positive effect on technical efficiency and a negative effect on CO₂ emissions. Therefore, future policy design and analyses should reflect the implications for regional elasticities of fossil fuel substitution and associated environmental outcomes.     

Is economic rebalancing toward consumption “greener”? Evidence from visibility in China, 1984–2006

The Chinese government has adopted a rebalancing strategy since 2011, shifting from an investment- to consumption-oriented growth model. An aim of this reform is for a “greener” development mode, but relevant empirical evidence is slim. In this study, we propose an innovative methodology to shed light on the environmental externalities of economic rebalancing. First, we use air visibility across China to reflect air quality during 1984–2006. Second, with the daily visibility data, we propose a weekend-effect regression model to difference out city-specific unobserved heterogeneity. Third, we approximate local consumption intensity with the portion of the residential electricity usage in the total electricity usage. To our surprise, the estimates suggest that the pollution intensity of consumption activities has not only been significant, but also exceeded that of production since the mid-1990s. Hence, rebalancing toward consumption is not necessarily more environmentally friendly according to the recent development experience of China.     

中国能源生产率的影响因素分析

This paper identifies the determinants of energy productivity based on a basic economic growth model. Using panel data including 29 provinces from 1995 to 2007, we find that energy productivity is negatively associated with the industry sector share in GDP and the state-owned sector share in GDP, and is positively associated with the electricity share in energy consumption. In addition, we find that there exists a big gap of energy efficiency among eastern, middle and western region in China. Our results suggest that we should induce the industry development structure from the industrial sector to service sector, prompt the reform of state-owned enterprises, as well as improve the energy consumption structure dominated by coal to diversified cleaning energy.      

Forecasting demand for electricity in Maryland: An econometric approach

Most of the models for forecasting demand for energy are based on simple extrapolations of past trends or on a simple regression equation with price of the energy and the stock of appliances as explanatory variables. In this paper, an attempt has been made to derive static and dynamic multiple regression equations from economic theory of consumption and production (Section II). Historical data were fitted to these theoretical constructs to test the equations in terms of econometric theory and forecast the demand according to “higher order conditional interval forecasts”. The residential demand for electricity is a function of its price, price of its substitute, per capita income and a lagged demand variable for dynamic adjustment of actual demand to equilibrium demand for electricity. The forecasts of residential demand to 1990 are based on projections of exogenous variables such as residential price of electricity, per capita income and the estimated long run elasticity of demand (Section III). The nonresidential demand for electricity is a function of employment in that sector, sectoral prices of electricity and the lagged sectoral demand. The forecasts of nonresidential electricity demand are also based on projections of its independent variables (Section IV). The last section converts the total demand for electricity into the required generating capacities and juxtaposes them against the estimates of expected supplies available from the forecasts of the utilities. The paper concludes that the eighties will be faced with excess supply of electricity in Maryland, in case the assumptions of projections of independent variables hold good. The misallocation of resources inherent in such excess supplies could be avoided if realistic scenerios of future demand, as attempted in this paper, could be predicted.     

山东省能源要素产出弹性、替代弹性的实证研究——基于超越对数生产函数的岭回归估计

构建了一个包含煤炭、石油、天然气和电力4种能源投入要素及时间趋势变量的超越对数生产函数,实证检验了1979—2009年山东省各能源要素的产出弹性、替代弹性及技术进步差异。结果表明:自改革开放以来,山东省的能源要素投入系统存在中性技术进步,技术进步率呈逐年递增趋势;山东省各能源要素的产出弹性逐年提高,按其均值由高到低排序依次是电力、石油、煤炭和天然气;1979—2009年期间煤炭与石油、煤炭与电力、石油与电力以及天然气与电力的替代弹性均大于1,石油与天然气的替代弹性虽然小于1,但自2000年后逐渐增大;山东省各能源要素的技术进步差异较小,按能源要素的技术进步率由高到低排序依次是煤炭、石油、电力和天然气。     

中国不可再生能源消耗效率的关键影响因素研究

随着中国工业化和城市化进程的加快,不可再生能源消耗在急剧增长,经济发展对能源供给与环境约束的压力已经濒临可持续发展平衡底线。无论从国家能源安全还是能源、经济、环境系统的和谐发展角度出发,提高不可再生能源消耗效率都是必然选择。在此背景下,基于C2B-DEA、超效率DEA模型,测算出1 990-2009年间中国不可再生能源消耗效率值,选定产业结构、对外开放程度、城市化进程、技术进步以及不可再生能源消耗结构等五大影响因素与效率值进行影响因素回归模型的实证分析。研究结果表明:第三产业比重、对外贸易进出口总额比重、城市化率以及不可再生能源消耗构成中煤炭消耗比重与不可再生能源消耗效率呈负相关,科技研发经费投入比重与不可再生能源消耗效率呈显著正相关。现阶段内,技术改造及创新与煤炭消耗比重的降低是提高我国不可再生能源消耗效率的重要途径。     

电力利用效率差异及收敛分析

能源效率方面的问题一直是学术界关注的焦点。本文从电力的角度分析能源效率的差异和收敛。研究发现：我国东部电力利用效率普遍较高,中部其次,西部最低,且西部远低于全国平均水平;在电力利用效率的影响因素分析中,根据面板数据的PCSE估计的结果来看,经济发展水平与电力利用效率正相关,而第二产业产值占GDP比重则与之负相关;地区间经济发展水平缩小会促使电力利用效率差距的缩小,而第二产业产值占GDP比重的标准差缩小则会扩大电力利用效率的差距;只有东部地区存在σ收敛和绝对β收敛,全国、东部、中部和西部均存在条件β收敛,且东部的收敛速度最慢,而西部的收敛速度最快。     

Energy Consumption Changes and CO2 Emission in India During Reforms

As we know that energy consumption or fossil fuel consumption is very much linked with environmental pollution, which is known as global climate change, so more energy related activities have an adverse impact on environment.

The paper makes an analysis of the changes in India’s energy consumption and CO₂ emission during the reforms introduced by Govt. of India in mid 1991. The energy Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) is used to identify the sources of energy consumption changes during the period 1991–92 to 1996–97. Results indicate that India’s energy consumption increased by 5.7% p.a. during the same period. Six different forces behind these changes are observed (i) technical changes, (ii) final demand structure, (iii) interaction term between technical change and final demand structure, (iv) changes in energy exports, (v) changes in energy imports, (vi) changes in energy change in stock. The empirical results show that the final demand structure, technical changes, and interaction term between final demand structure and technical changes have played important role. The findings of CO₂ emission revealed that the petroleum product and electricity are the dominating sectors, which are due to the direct effect of crude oil and coal respectively. So far as the intensities are concerned, electricity contributes a major part. The paper also suggests few policies for consideration.

     

Short- and long-run relationships between natural gas consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Pakistan using a multivariate model by including capital and labor as control variables for the period between 1972QI and 2011QIV. The results of the ARDL bound testing indicate the presence of cointegration relationships among the variables. The estimated long-run impact of gas consumption on economic growth is greater than other factor inputs suggesting that energy is a critical driver of production and growth in Pakistan. Furthermore, the results of causality test suggest that natural gas consumption and economic growth are complements. Given that natural gas constitutes to the primary source of energy in Pakistan, the implication of this study is that natural gas conservation policies could harm growth and, therefore, requires the policy makers to improve the energy supply efficiency as well as formulate appropriate policies to attract investment and establish public–private partnership initiatives.