A social security fallacy

The article investigates whether compulsory old age provisions are justified from an economic point of view. According to a standard argument, some people would not provide sufficiently for their old age in the absence of a compulsory pension system — they would become a charge to the public. This free rider problem can be solved by mandatory lump sum contributions. However, if contributions depend on labour income, as they do in reality, potential free riders consider them as payroll taxes — even if the pension system is fully funded and actuarially fair. Therefore, compulsory contributions which are related to earned income do not solve an economic problem which cannot be tackled by the tax system as well. Put differently, there exists no economic justification for compulsory contributions, the standard argument is simply false.     

Beliefs and actions: expectations and savings decisions by older Americans

To understand the interaction of savings behavior, pension fund participation and expectations of retirement well being, we ask two questions. Are expected pension benefits a substitute for accumulated savings in replacing preretirement income? Are individuals’ expectations concerning their retirement standard of living realistic based on their accumulated savings and pension plan participation? First-wave data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) are analyzed using a probit regression. The results are consistent with the idea that pension benefits are substitutes for saving and that accumulated savings have a significant impact on the expected standard of living but pension plan participation does not.     

养老金替代率对私人储蓄的影响：一个理论模型

在养老保险制度中,养老金替代率是一个非常重要的参数。养老金替代率不仅决定退休者的养老保障水平以及基金的收支平衡,而且对私人储蓄也产生一定的影响。在经济达到竞争均衡的条件下,养老金替代率与私人储蓄之间存在负相关关系,即养老金替代率的提高将引起资本存量的下降。因此,为保持合理的资本存量,就应该使养老金替代率保持适度的水平。     

不确定性与中国城镇居民储蓄率的实证研究

本文从不确定性收入、社会保险的参与情况对中国城镇居民面临的不确定性进行了界定,并使用2006年中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS2006)检验了不确定性对城镇居民储蓄率的影响。基于稳健OLS和可行广义最小二乘法(FGLS)的估计结果表明:不确定性收入与城镇居民储蓄率之间存在着显著的正相关关系,参加养老保险和医疗保险可以显著降低城镇居民的储蓄率。分位数回归的结果进一步显示:在各分位处,不确定性收入均对城镇居民储蓄率产生了显著的正向影响,并且影响强度随着储蓄率分位的上升而下降;而在储蓄率分布的0.5及以上中高分位处,参加养老保险可以显著降低城镇家庭的储蓄率;在储蓄率分布的顶端,参加医疗保险也与城镇居民储蓄率之间表现出显著的负相关关系。     

养老金计划与个人所得税政策

不同税制模式和个人所得税征税方式对养老金计划的影响不同,而养老金计划的个人所得税政策如何定位又主要取决于公共政策对储蓄以及不同储蓄形式的态度。比较国际实践,从税制模式、储蓄传统和长期资产管理来看,我国公共政策不需要鼓励养老金储蓄,但从金融体系的稳定和长远发展来看,又需要对养老金储蓄形式给予一定的鼓励。因此,我国个人所得税政策应该对其给予适当税收激励,但不需要很大力度。考虑到我国分类征收的个人所得税制,本文认为,我国个人所得税对养老金计划应该采取TEE模式(养老金缴款不允许税前扣除、对未支付的资本收益或资本利得不征税、对领取的全部养老金收入不征税)。     

延迟退休年龄、内生生育率与养老金

本文通过构建内生生育率的OLG模型,从微观视角考察了延迟退休年龄对生育率、养老金替代率及其个人养老金收入的影响。研究表明:(1)延迟退休年龄会提高均衡时的生育率水平,但提高幅度非常有限。(2)生育率的提高会增加未来劳动力供给,促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加,而延迟退休年龄延长了养老保险缴费期限,也会促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加;但同时,延迟退休年龄将使得预防性储蓄下降,资本积累降低,工资收入下降,养老金收入降低。因此,延迟退休年龄会使养老金替代率上升。当资本产出弹性大于或等于0.5时,延迟退休年龄会使得养老金收入降低;当资本产出弹性小于0.5时,在平均预期寿命较大或养老保险缴费比例较高的情形下,养老金收入会随着退休年龄的延迟而增加,反之,其会随着退休年龄的延迟而降低。进一步地,将模型拓展到包含人力资本的情形,延迟退休年龄仍会提高均衡时的生育率与养老金替代率。     

2012年英国强制性第二支柱养老金改革及其对中国的启示

英国养老金制度体系的问题是公共养老金保障不足,职业养老金覆盖范围有限。英国自2012年10开始实施“自动注册”的强制性第二支柱计划,该计划涉及面广,分阶段实施,在实施过程中具有一定的弹性,由雇主和雇员共同缴费,国家给予一定的财政补贴,通过养老金监督局和信托制度（NEST）,增加指导,辅助实施。文章分析了此项改革的来龙去脉,并认为此项改革是英国养老金一揽子改革的重要组成部分,既是对过去30余年公共养老保险私有化改革引起的问题的修补,也是完善养老金体制的重要突破。英国此项改革的一些做法值得中国借鉴。     

On the Asset Allocation of a Default Pension Fund

We characterize the optimal default fund in a defined contribution (DC) pension plan. Using detailed data on individuals' holdings inside and outside the pension system, we find substantial heterogeneity within and between passive and active investors in terms of labor income, financial wealth, and stock market participation. We build a life‐cycle consumption‐savings model, with a DC pension account and an opt‐out/default choice, that produces realistic investor heterogeneity. Relative to a common age‐based allocation, implementing the optimal default asset allocation implies a welfare gain of 1.5% during retirement. Much of the gain is attainable with a simple rule of thumb.     

企业年金管理模式研究

我国社会保障制度改革的目标是形成基本养老保险、企业年金和自愿储蓄“三根支柱”构成的多层次的老年经济保障制度,融再分配、储蓄和保险功能于一体,达到给老年人提供更好的经济保障并促进经济增长的目的。其中,企业年金改革作为社保基金改革的重要一环,其成功与否关系到经济的良性循环和可持续发展。本文通过对我国企业年金发展模式的研究,提出了未来多主体参与的企业年金发展模式并提出相关建议,另外,文章对商业银行开拓企业年金市场也提出了包括加强自身建设提高综合服务水平;积极研发企业年金业务管理核心系统;交叉发展企业年金业务和其他金融服务,拓展服务空间等相关建议。     

养老金统筹层次提升的收入再分配效应研究——以辽宁省级统筹为例

养老保险一直以来被认为是具有重要的收入再分配功能.养老金公平分配既是收入再分配的出发点,也是再分配调节能力的基础.只有深入透彻的分析基础养老金自市级统筹提升到省级统筹层次带来的收入分配变动,才能更好检验基础养老金统筹层次提升所带来的地区间收入差距的变化,更重要的是可以为实现全国统筹铺平道路.本文立足于分析中国城镇企业职工基本养老保险制度,依据养老金计发办法,分析统筹层次提升对养老金给付影响及基础养老金的收入再分配效应,得到如下结论:省级统筹的实施对养老金给付水平的调整不存在影响;省级统筹的实施对新增退休人员基础养老金和过渡性养老金给付存在影响;养老保险统筹层次的提升缩小地区间的新增退休人员初次分配差异;对于新增退休人员来说,实际基础养老金地区差异要小于名义上的基础养老金地区差异.但当前的省级统筹层次提升分配方案损害了高收入地区高物价水平地区新增退休人员基础养老金福利,未能真正体现出保证劳动者在职贡献与养老金福利给付的相对公平.因此,养老保险统筹层次提升方案中,应充分考虑地区间物价水平差异,确保高收入地区养老金合理的流向低收入地区,保证基础养老金分配的公平与养老金制度的可持续发展,促进全国统筹的尽快实现.     

Income Uncertainty and IRAs

In a precautionary savings setting, since Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) are poor substitutes for precautionary savings due to early withdrawal penalties, those facing more income uncertainty are expected to prefer more liquid assets. This paper investigates the role of income uncertainty in IRA participation. Confidential tax panel data is used to construct a measure of income uncertainty. Greater income uncertainty is found to have a negative influence on IRA participation for those in the immediate pre-retirement stage of the life-cycle. The results appear to be consistent with buffer-stock models of savings where income uncertainty is predicted to have a large effect on wealth accumulation beginning around age 50.     

社会养老保险福利效应研究述评

提高国民福利是政府建立社会养老保险的最终目标。国外研究主要运用一般均衡方法构建代际交叠模型,从养老保险收入分配功能及其对经济增长(储蓄率和资本积累)的影响两个角度对不同养老保险模式的福利效应进行综合研究,研究成果十分丰富。然而,国内对如何在现有约束条件下实现国民福利最大化的探讨不够系统和深入。发展型福利思想为未来养老保险福利效应研究及政策改革提供了新的视角。     

Improving the Equity-Efficiency Trade-Off: Mandatory Savings Accounts for Social Insurance

In the modern welfare state a substantial part of an individual's tax bill is transferred back to the same individual taxpayer in the form of social transfers. This provides a rationale for financing part of social insurance through mandatory savings accounts. We analyze the behavioral and welfare effects of compulsory savings accounts in an intertemporal model with uncertainty, involuntary unemployment, endogenous retirement decisions, credit constraints, and heterogeneous agents. We show that the introduction of (early) retirement and unemployment accounts generates a Pareto improvement by enabling the government to provide lifetime income insurance and liquidity insurance in a more efficient manner.     

Presidential Address: Pension Policy and the Financial System

In this paper, I examine the effect of pension policy on the structure of financial systems around the world. In particular, I explore the hypothesis that policies that promote pension savings also promote the development of capital markets. I present a model that endogenizes the extent to which savings are intermediated through banks or capital markets, and derive implications for corporate finance, household finance, banking, and the size of the financial sector. I then present a number of facts that are broadly consistent with the theory and examine a variety of alternative explanations of my findings.     

Domestic Practice, Comparative International Analyses and Accounting Discretion—Italian Savings Banks' Pension Cost Accounting

In countries where the use of financial statements is minimal and relative accounting debate less intense, domestic practices may gain benefit from being consistently applied. Comparison with foreign experience is crucial. It leads to questioning of the appropriateness of practices that might otherwise never be discussed, particularly where they are developed in such a way as to favour the stakeholders controlling the accounting process. A salient example evidencing the above claims is to be found in the Italian savings banks (hereafter 'banks') accounting for the cost of defined benefits pension plans. The Italian financial system is credit-based. While banks play a predominant role, the financial industry itself enjoys significant autonomy in setting its accounting standards. This is especially so in respect of the accounting for the cost of pensions as savings banks have offered the most significant and almost unique example of employees' defined benefit pension plans in Italy.
  The present article compares some aspects of the long debated international and Anglo-Saxon standards' recommendations with the infrequently questioned Italian domestic practice. The substantial deviations that emerge in the Italian system favour particularly management and proprietorship by allowing a significant degree of discretion regarding the labour cost figure, thereby enhancing the banks' salary bargaining strength.     

New Models for Old-Age Security: Experiments, Evidence, and Unanswered Questions

The escalating costs of traditional social security systemsare forcing countries to reevaluate the formal programs thatprovide income maintenance support to the aging. This articlesuggests a reform strategy built around three systems, or "pillars,"to provide old-age security—a public pillar with mandatoa private, mandatory savings plan, and a voluntary savings system.Three variations of this model are being implemented in differentcountries: the Latin American model, in which individual workerschoose an investment manager for their retirement finds; theOECD model, in which employers, union trustees, or both choosethe investment manager for an entire company or occupation;and the Swedish notional account model, a reformed pay-as-you-gofirst pillar that may be supplemented by a second, funded pillar.Preliminary empirical evidence on the efficiency and growtheffects of pension reform, mostly from Chile, indicates thatthe impact on national saving and financial market developmentand, through these, economic growth, has been positive and possiblylarge. Problems concerning high administrative costs and regulationsthat distort investment decisions remain to be resolved, however.      

养老金改革考验我们经济学的功底和智慧北大核心

本文从四个方面思考中国养老金改革问题。一是指出养老金改革是一个多维复杂的系统。宏观角度涉及养老金缺口问题和资本市场健康发展,微观角度与生产率密切相关。从国际比较来看,中国的老龄化程度比全球平均水平更严重,但养老金储备属于全球较低水平。从增强养老保障可持续性看,可能有延长退休年龄、增加储蓄、减少替代率、增加预筹资金并确保资金保值增值等四种办法。二是提出中国养老金改革的总体框架。本文建议建立一个较为综合的衡量目标,比如G30采用的"终身财务安全度量(Lifetime Financial Security,简称LFS)"的方法,跨部门比较政策效果,讨论维持在同一框架内,避免各说各话。本文还提出,中国养老金制度从DB型转向DC型,可以采取历史还原法和名义账户的办法,解决养老金改革转轨中的代际公平问题,以及城乡差别、所有制差别问题。三是提出"N对1"养老金发放模式与30余个养老金管理机构数量等养老金经营管理设想,并指出养老金投资回报与风险偏好须匹配,结合我国资本项目开放进程考虑养老金全球化投资。四是从住房、民粹主义等非金融领域,延伸思考养老金改革的复杂性。最后,本文总结指出,中国养老金改革是一项考验经济学功底和智慧的重大课题,应从多个维度全面分析、讨论、测算、论证,高度重视养老金改革对相关各方的激励作用,做出大胆有效的改革。     

Alternative Retirement Income Arrangements and Lifetime Income Inequality: Lessons From Australia

This paper examines the implications for lifetime income equality of alternative retirement income arrangements, using the Australian scheme as a benchmark. In Australia, the pay-as-you go financed age pension is means-tested and thereby provides a contrast with those countries where part or all of a basic pension is paid to all aged persons. Many governments are considering an increase in the level of means-testing. The results show that the introduction of a universal pension coupled with significant changes and simplifications to the structure of taxation and superannuation have little effect on the redistributive impact of the tax structure in a life cycle framework. The presence of means-testing appears to have no significant effect on life-time inequality. The results suggest that it is possible to eliminate complexities from the system providing retirement benefits without having any deleterious effect on equity. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

人口迁移对养老金缺口的影响分析

通过构建三部门世代交叠模型，依据现实数据进行模拟分析，考察在不同时间跨度下不同净迁移率对养老金收支的影响。研究发现，人口净流入的增加会导致养老金统筹账户和个人账户的收入与支出都增加。短期内，人口净流入会缩小养老金缺口，形成一定的养老金盈余；但长期内，人口净流入会使养老金缺口进一步扩大。鉴于此，地方政府通过吸引外来人口短期内缓解养老金缺口是可行的，但欲据此从根本上解决养老金缺口是不可取的。     

劳动报酬上涨与中国国民储蓄率的演变趋势

资金流量表数据表明,劳动报酬上涨对2008年以来中国国民储蓄率产生了重大影响。本文据此提出了解释国民储蓄率演变趋势的劳动报酬假说,认为2008年以来的国民储蓄率持续下降是居民劳动报酬上涨推动的。具体来说,居民劳动报酬上涨的确定性和可预期性,增强了居民消费的过度敏感性,造成居民储蓄率下降;居民劳动报酬上涨导致企业支付劳动报酬占比上升,企业储蓄率下降;而企业支付劳动报酬占比上升又导致政府增加社会福利和公共服务支出,政府可支配收入比重和政府储蓄倾向下降,进而使得政府储蓄率下降。基于2008—2016年的省级面板数据,以最低工资标准作为工具变量进行实证检验,验证了上述假说。基于本文的理论假说和经验证据,我国国民储蓄率仍有进一步下降的空间。为了对冲储蓄率下降带来的影响,我国经济增长方式需要由投资驱动型转变为消费驱动型,当前稳增长政策的着力点需要由投资数量转变为投资效率。