Three minimal market institutions with human and algorithmic agents: Theory and experimental evidence

We define and examine three minimal market games (sell-all, buy–sell, and double auction) in the laboratory relative to the predictions of theory. These closed exchange economies have some cash to facilitate transactions, and include feedback. The experiment reveals that (1) the competitive general equilibrium (CGE) and non-cooperative (NCE) models are reasonable anchors to locate most but not all the observed outcomes of the three market mechanisms; (2) outcomes tend to get closer to CGE predictions as the number of players increases; (3) prices and allocations in double auctions deviate persistently from CGE predictions; (4) the outcome paths across the three market mechanisms differ significantly and persistently; (5) importance of market structures for outcomes is reinforced by algorithmic trader simulations; and (6) none of the three markets dominates the others across six measures of performance. Inclusion of some mechanism differences into theory may enhance our understanding of important aspects of markets.     

Comparative Statics Predictions for Changes in Uncertainty in the Portfolio and Savings Problems

The paper investigates comparative statics effects of changes in uncertainty for a general family of problems that encompasses both the portfolio and saving decisions. Conditions are derived on preferences that are necessary and sufficient for unambiguous comparative statics predictions. The paper consolidates and completes the statement of restrictions on attitudes toward risk–bearing needed for determinate predictions in the portfolio and saving problems.     

A synthesis of the macroeconomic approaches to exchange rate determination

The paper develops a general model with the goods, money, domestic and foreign bond, and labor markets. The special assumptions needed to generate the predictions of the different approaches from the model are found. It turns out that the assumption of perfect capital mobility essentially generates the monetarist predictions, and perfect monetary sterilization by the central bank at a fixed interest rate the predictions of the elasticity-absorption approach. The approaches turn out to be independent, rather than conflicting parts of the general model, each approach abstracting from what the other is analyzing. This is technically done by dichotomizing the general model, the monetarists making the money market equation, and the Keynesians the goods market and balance payments equations the independent ones. While the Keynesian, monetarist, and short-term portfolio balance approaches differ in their policy regime assumptions, the long-run portfolio balance approach differs in its equilibrium condition, by constraining the trade balance to equilibrium.     

The Microeconomics of an R&D-Based Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper explores the microeconomic structure underlying a class of endogenous growth models in which product differentiation and stochastic quality growth coexist. The general equilibrium model generates a stationary stochastic equilibrium in which a nondegenerate ergodic distribution of firm size depends systematically on parameters of the model. Features of the model necessary for stable endogenous aggregate growth are explored, and predictions of the model are compared with microeconometric evidence on R&D intensity, firm growth, and concentration.     

A unified beta pricing theory

This paper derives Ross's mutual fund separation theory and a new, equilibrium version of Ross's arbitrage pricing theory as special cases of a general theory. The paper also reveals that the two theories are identical in their predictions of asset prices and portfolio returns. The capital asset pricing model (a restricted case of the mutual fund separation theory) receives special treatment.     

The Substitution Problem in the Theory of Effective Protection

Input substitution theoretically invalidates the resource flow predictions of effective rates of protection calculated in a partial equilibrium framework. Partial equilibrium effective protection analysis, despite this "substitution problem," has nevertheless quietly settled into the trade economistÕs toolbox. This paper presents a new, transparent review of the substitution problem in effective protection. It finds that partial equilibrium effective protection analysis, although theoretically susceptible to misleading results, is in practice a reasonable estimator of certain short-run general equilibrium effects of protection.     

A Social-Psychological Perspective on Herding in Stock Markets

A social-psychological perspective conceives of herding in stock markets as informative social influence resulting from heuristic or systematic information processing. In three laboratory experiments employing undergraduates we apply this perspective to investigate factors that prevent herd influence that would lead to inaccurate predictions of stock prices. In Experiment 1, we show that an economic reward for making the same predictions as the herd increases the influence of a majority but not the influence of a minority, and that an individual economic reward for making accurate predictions reduces the influence of the majority. In Experiment 2, we show a reduced influence of a majority herd's inaccurate predictions when requiring assessments of the accuracy of the majority herd´s predictions as compared to requiring judgments of their consistency. Experiment 3 shows that a lower volatility of stock prices reduces the influence of a majority herd´s inaccurate predictions.     

Sustainability and Technical Progress

A rigorous model connects together the following three basic concepts: (1) "sustainability"— meaning the generalized future power of an economy to consume over time; (2) "Green NNP"— meaning a current measure of national income that subtracts off from GNP not just depreciation of capital but also, more generally, depletion of environmental assets evaluated at current efficiency prices; (3) "technological progress"— meaning a projection onto the future of the so-called "Solow residual". A simple general formula is derived. Some crude calculations suggest a possibly strong effect of the residual, which hints that our best present estimates of long-term sustainability may be largely driven by predictions of future technological progress.     

Choosing the size of the public sector under rent seeking from state coffers

This paper incorporates rent seeking from state coffers into a general equilibrium model of economic growth and endogenous policy. Self-interested individuals try to extract, for personal benefit, part of tax revenues that could be used to finance public investment. We solve for a non-cooperative Nash equilibrium in individual agents' behavior. The determinants of rent seeking in general equilibrium are identified and we consider the efficient size of public sector given the rent-seeking activity. Cross-country data from 108 rich and developing countries provide support for our predictions.     

Long-term growth and persistence with obsolescence

Previous research has shown a strong positive correlation between short-term persistence and long-term output growth as well as between depreciation rates and long-term output growth. This evidence, therefore, contradicts the standard predictions from traditional neoclassical or AK-type growth models with exogenous depreciation. In this paper, we first confirm these findings for a larger sample of 101 countries. We then study the dynamics of growth and persistence in a model that renders a positive link between embodied technological progress, depreciation and output growth. We find that the model's predictions appear consistent with the empirical evidence on persistence, long-term growth and depreciation rates. In addition, we provide evidence of a unit root in output with a large battery of second-generation panel unit root tests. This supports the general validity of the endogenous growth model proposed.     

Foreign Competition and Wage Inequality

The author argues that increased foreign competition can affect technical choice and skill differentials even when actual imports do not rise significantly. A model is presented of general oligopolistic equilibrium (GOLE) in which a reduction in import barriers (whether technological or policy–imposed) encourages more strategic investment by incumbent firms. The predictions accord with many of the stylized facts: higher skill premia; higher ratios of skilled to unskilled workers employed in all sectors and throughout the economy; little change in import volumes or prices; and rapid technological progress with rather little change in total factor productivity.     

International aspects of public infrastructure investment

Abstract.  Modelling infrastructure as an international public good in a two‐country model of trade where each country's social planner behaves strategically, we show that, in general, the equilibrium levels of infrastructure are not optimal from a global perspective. Utilizing an appropriate econometric framework and data from 16 European countries over the period 1987–95, we find evidence that is consistent with the predictions of our model. JEL Classification: F10, F42, H42
Aspects internationaux de l'investissement public dans les infrastructures.  Les auteurs présentent un modèle de commerce international entre deux pays dans lequel (1) les planificateurs des deux pays ont un comportement stratégique et (2) les infrastructures sont un bien public international. Ils montrent que, en général, les niveaux d'équilibre des investissements en infrastructure ne sont pas optimaux d'un point de vue global. A l'aide d'un cadre économétrique approprié, et de données pour 16 pays européens entre 1987 et 1995, ils valident les prédictions de leur modèle.     

MANAGEMENT BEHAVIOUR AND A THEORY OF DIVERSIFICATION

This paper investigates the basis for a behavioural theory of diversification. A theory of diversification may be required (i) for full analysis of competitive processes, which include innovation and cross-entry competition, and (ii) to understand the selection of diversification projects in individual firms. Alternative optimising and non-optimising models are feasible. The choice between these alternatives will be considered after the non-optimising model has been developed.
Section I outlines the basic model and the general predictions which it generates. In section II the predictions are subjected to a coarse test, which is taken to justify further investigation of the model's properties. The model is developed more fully in section III.     

Trade Effects of European Union Enlargement: an ex post model of trade between Spain and Latin America

Past research on European Union (EU) Enlargement has tended to neglect the effects on trade with non-preferred trading partners. This paper examines the consequences of EU enlargement on trade between Spain and the Latin American countries with which it has traditional economic and cultural ties. An import demand functions model was estimated for the period 1964–93. The country-level results showed that Spanish accession to the EU only had large adverse effects on its imports from Argentina. The results for non-agricultural products indicated a general absence of negative effects on Spanish imports. The aggregate results from the ex post model provide support for some, but not all, of the ex ante predictions of previous studies.     

International trade, flexible manufacturing, and outsourcing

Abstract .  This study analyzes the impact of opening up markets on the diffusion of flexible manufacturing in a general equilibrium framework. With flexible manufacturing, suppliers can service a range of downstream industries and do not have to be concerned about being held up. Instead, the vertical structure is determined by the trade-off between economies of scale in flexible manufacturing and product specificity of in-house production. The analysis derives a number of testable predictions with regard to firm size and productivity measures and shows that globalization can lead to a consolidation in upstream markets, lower real wages, and reduce welfare.     

Beyond Becker: Training in Imperfect Labour Markets

In this paper, we survey non-competitive theories of training. With competitive labour markets, firms never pay for investments in general training, whereas when labour markets are imperfect, firm-sponsored training arises as an equilibrium phenomenon. We discuss a variety of evidence which support the predictions of non-competitive theories, and we draw some tentative policy conclusions from these models.     

Delegation and the regulation of U.S. financial markets

We analyze the institutional determinants of U.S. financial market regulation with a general model of the policy-making process in which legislators delegate authority to regulate financial risk at both the firm and systemic levels. The model explains changes in U.S. financial regulation leading up to the financial crisis. We test the predictions of the general model with a novel, comprehensive data set of financial regulatory laws enacted specifically between 1950 and 2009. The theoretical and empirical analysis finds that economic and political factors impact Congress’ decision to delegate regulatory authority to executive agencies, which in turn impacts the stringency of financial market regulation, and our estimation results indicate that political factors may have been stronger and resulted in inefficiencies.     

A unified approach to comparative statics puzzles in experiments

The paper shows that several game-theoretic solution concepts provide similar comparative statics predictions over a wide class of games. I start from the observation that, in many experiments, behavior is affected by parameter shifts that leave the Nash equilibrium unchanged. I explain the direction of change with a heuristic structural approach, using properties such as strategic complementarities and increasing differences. I show that the approach is consistent with general comparative statics results for (i) the Nash equilibrium of a game with perturbed payoff functions, (ii) the quantal response equilibrium, (iii) level-k reasoning. I also relate the structural approach to equilibrium selection concepts.     

Non-scale endogenous growth effects of subsidies for exporters

We built a general equilibrium endogenous growth model in which final goods are produced either in the relatively skilled-labour intensive exports sector or in the relatively unskilled-labour intensive domestic sector. We show that, by affecting the technological-knowledge bias, subsidies explain the simultaneous rise in the exports sector, the skill wage premium and the economic growth rate. Then, to shed light upon the causal nexus between production-related subsidies and exports, we use a Portuguese longitudinal database (1996–2003) and implement a propensity score matching approach. Empirical results seem to prove the theoretical predictions: subsidies generate the rise in the wage premium of exporters and the increase in the relative size of export sector, even if no impact of subsidies is found in the capacity of transforming domestic firms into new exporters.