Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Study on Selected Brazilian Industries

This study aims to investigate whether foreign direct investment (FDI) growth improved the Brazilian foreign trade in the long run and whether there is a predictable relationship between a firm's FDI strategy and a firm's foreign trade. We applied moderated multiple regressions and generalized linear models to test the effects of FDI on both export and import equations of 11 Brazilian industries from 1996 to 2009. Our data sources include the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade Ministry, Central Bank of Brazil, and the Applied Research Institute. Results showed that FDI is correlated with increased exports in the short run, but not in the long run. In the long run, the positive relationship between FDI and exports will only occur for export-oriented industries in which resource-seeking strategies are preponderant. We found a positive relationship between imports and FDI in the short run, particularly in import-oriented industries. A negative relationship between FDI and imports was found in the long run.     

新开放条件下外资、外贸与长三角区域经济增长关系研究

本文以新开放条件为背景,采用协整理论、脉冲响应函数和Granger因果检验方法就外资、外贸与长三角区域经济增长关系进行了实证分析,结果表明:(1)无论是短期,还是长期,FDI和出口都推动了经济增长,而进口只在短期内促进了经济增长,长期促进作用并不显现。(2)在短期内,FDI的经济增长效应和贸易效应存在较大的差异,前者明显大于后者。(3)FDI、出口与经济增长存在长期双向因果关系,进口只是经济增长的短期单向原因。文章最后提出相应的对策建议。     

Investigating the causality links between environmental quality,foreign direct investment and economic growth in MENA countries

This paper investigates the causal relationship between environmental quality, Foreign Direct Investment and economic growth using simultaneous-equation panel data VAR model a panel of 17 MENA countries over the period 1990–2012. Our empirical results pointed out that there is a unidirectional causality running from both FDI stocks and CO₂ emissions to economic growth. They also indicate the existence of unidirectional causality running from economic growth to CO₂ emissions. However, the results support the occurrence of unidirectional causality from FDI stocks to CO₂ emissions. Our empirical result confirms the hypothesis of neutrality for the Environment-GDP link. There is bidirectional causality from ${\text{CO}}_2$emissions and economic growth, and a bidirectional causal relationship between FDI stocks and CO₂ emissions. For the global panel, we show that the existence of a unidirectional causality running from FDI stocks to economic growth; a bidirectional causality between economic growth and CO₂ emissions; as well as a bidirectional causality between FDI stocks and ${\text{CO}}_2$emissions.     

On the Causal Links Between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries

We analyse the Granger causal relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI) and GDP in a sample of 31 developing countries covering 31 years. Using estimators for heterogeneous panel data we find bi‐directional causality between the FDI‐to‐GDP ratio and the level of GDP. FDI has a lasting impact on GDP, while GDP has no long‐run impact on the FDI‐to‐GDP ratio. In that sense FDI causes growth. Furthermore, in a model for GDP and FDI as a fraction of gross capital formation (GCF) we also find long‐run effects from FDI to GDP. This finding may be interpreted as evidence in favour of the hypotheses that FDI has an impact on GDP via knowledge transfers and adoption of new technology.     

BOOK REVIEW

Using panel data methods to analyze data from 14 Latin American countries from 1978 to 2003, this paper empirically examines the links between foreign direct investment (FDI), local conditions, and economic growth. The results suggest that FDI plays an important role in contributing to economic growth. However, the effect of FDI on economic growth is dependent on host economy–based conditions. The empirical results from this study show that there is a positive interaction effect of FDI with technology gap and a negative interaction effect of FDI with the level of school attainment on economic growth. Furthermore, the empirical results from the FDI equation suggest that inflation, trade, school attainment, and telephone lines are the most determinant of location decisions for foreign investors. To explore the relationship between FDI and economic growth further, this paper examines Granger-causality between FDI and economic growth. Our empirical evidence shows that the direction of causality is from economic growth to FDI and not the reverse for Asian countries. Therefore, the causal link between FDI and economic growth is unidirectional. We also provide evidence that the link between FDI and economic growth is bidirectional for Latin American countries, which indicates that economic growth initially could attract more FDI, which, in turn, would then result in accelerated economic growth.     

外商直接投资与我国农产品和食品贸易关系的研究

本文运用计量经济模型,对我国农产品和食品贸易与FDI之间的关系进行了研究,结果表明我国农产品和食品进口、出口和总贸易量与FDI之间皆存在长期稳定的均衡关系,而且这种关系具有互补性。在此基础上,本文还对各变量之间是否存在因果关系进行了检验,以便进一步揭示二者之间的联系。同时结合我国农产品和食品贸易与FDI的特点,对结果进行了相应的讨论。     

对外贸易与经济增长:基于辽宁省的实证分析和检验

本文根据计量经济学的相关理论,利用辽宁省1979年到2004年的年度统计数据,对辽宁省的对外贸易与经济增长之间的长短期关系进行了实证分析和检验。结果表明:从长期来看,辽宁省的对外贸易与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系;从短期看,出口对辽宁省的经济增长具有衰减作用,进口对辽宁省的经济增长具有促进作用,文章从供求关系的角度对此进行了解释。研究结果还表明,出口与辽宁省的经济增长之间存在双向的因果关系,但仅存在从经济增长到进口的单向因果关系。     

FDI与中国技术创新能力的协整分析——基于中国1990-2005年数据

外国直接投资(FDI)对东道国提高生产率、增强国内产业的竞争力具有重要贡献。FDI在对中国经济增长做出贡献的同时,是否也促进了中国技术创新能力的提高?文章运用协整与格兰杰因果检验方法考察了1990-2005年流入中国的FDI和专利授权量之间的关系。研究结果表明,FDI流量与专利授权量存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但FDI流量对专利授权量的贡献在短期内是不明显的。FDI流入类型、中国企业的吸收能力以及FDI与中国企业的互动关系是造成这一现象的主要原因。     

东盟在全球产品内分工的地位与跨国公司FDI

跨国公司FDI在全球的生产布局极大地促进了东盟国家产品内分工的发展。本文分析了东盟国家近年来FDI和中间产品贸易的现状,发现随着世界FDI流动的不断恢复,在产品内分工处于价值链中后端位置的东盟国家,虽然位置没有明显提升,但在引入FDI增加的同时其参与产品内国际分工的程度却在不断加深;在理论分析的基础上进一步提出跨国公司FDI与产品内分工的程度可能存在良性互动关系的假设,并建立数量模型对东盟五国十多年来FDI与中间产品贸易的数据进行进一步分析,发现长期内跨国公司FDI与中间产品贸易即产品内分工之间存在着双重的因果关系,而短期内只有中间产品进出口之间具有一定的联系,FDI与中间产品进出口没有必然的因果关系。     

Monetary Dynamics of Inflation in China

This paper investigates both the short‐run and the long‐run relationships between monetary growth and inflation in China between 1980 and 2010. We construct multivariate dynamic models based on Friedman’s quantity theory of money (but permitting money to be endogenous) and Meltzer’s monetarist model. The empirical results provide robust evidence that there is a bilateral causal relationship between monetary growth and inflation as well as between monetary growth and output growth. An indirect and implicit causal relationship between monetary growth and inflation is found through the asset inflation channel. There are also long‐run equilibrium relationships between money stock, price index and other relevant variables. The present paper further provides a historical exploration of the mechanism of the monetary dynamics of inflation in China over the underlying period. We conclude that the monetary growth rule is likely to be the most promising policy orientation for China to manage its inflation.     

基于VAR模型的中国出口导向经济增长假说检验

由于数据结构、计量方法和变量选择的不同,有关ELG(出口导向型增长)假说的研究得出了不同的结论。系统分析FDI、出口贸易和经济增长的关系,将FDI纳入VAR模型中检验ELG假说,结果发现:中国是出口导向型经济增长,每增长1%的出口贸易开放度引发长期经济增长0.83%,出口贸易开放度是影响中国经济增长波动的主要因素,它对经济增长具有递增的促进作用;FDI具有持续提高中国出口贸易度的效应,从而促进中国的长期经济增长,FDI是引发中国出口贸易度提高和经济增长的Granger原因。     

我国服务业外商直接投资的经济增长效应——基于9个行业面板数据的实证研究

本文利用固定效应模型对1997-2003年服务业各行业的相关数据进行了短期效应和长期效应的分析,结果表明:服务业外商直接投资具有一定的经济增长效应,但是在不同时间段差异较大。从短期看,1997-2000年期间,服务业外商直接投资具有负的经济增长效应,而在2001-2003年期间,服务业外商直接投资具有正的经济增长效应。从长期看,1997-2000年期间,滞后两年的服务业外商直接投资具有较强的正的经济增长效应,2001-2003年期间,滞后一年的服务业外商直接投资具有比当年更大的正的经济增长效应。最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

Exports and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: New insights from innovative econometric methods

This study examined the relationship between exports and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. It employed innovative econometric methods, including the Fourier ADF with structural break test, a comparative analysis of three causality tests and a rolling causality test procedure. The findings suggested that there was a statistically significant relationship between exports and economic growth in several Sub-Saharan countries. However, the causal linkages between exports and economic growth in these countries were found to be weak and unstable. These empirical results have some notable policy implications.     

湖北省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析

以湖北省1981-2006年数据为样本,分别运用统计方法和计量方法分析了湖北省对外贸易与经济增长的关系。基本结论包括:湖北省货物出口和进口对经济增长的作用表现得并不稳定且不明显,产业结构变动对进出口产品结构的影响较明显;湖北省GDP增长与进口呈单向因果关系,与出口不构成显著的因果关系;从长期看,湖北省GDP与出口、进口之间存在协整关系,即存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,三者是协调一致、同步变动的。从短期来看,进口对经济增长起到了一定的促进作用,且这种促进作用要强于出口,但其本身也较小。     

Trade openness,income levels,and economic growth: The case of developing countries, 1970–2009

This paper attempts to investigate the extent to which trade openness has had an impact on the levels of income and rates of growth in a sample of 115 developing countries for the period 1970–2009. Additionally, to assess whether there is an income level threshold for a country to benefit from international trade, the sample is broken down into three mutually exclusive groups of countries: low-income, lower middle-income, and upper middle-income countries. The main novelty of the paper lies on the use, on the one hand, of a new and better trade openness measure and, on the other hand, of non-stationary heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to cope with the problem of cross-sectional dependence. The results show a positive bi-directional relationship between trade openness and income level in the long run, thus suggesting that trade openness is both a cause and a consequence of the level of income. The results for the short run, that is, the link between openness growth and economic growth, go in the same direction.     

Trade openness,foreign direct investment,and finance-growth nexus in the Eurozone countries

The paper investigates causal relationships between trade openness, foreign direct investment, financial development, and economic growth in 19 Eurozone countries over the period 1988–2013. Using a panel vector error-correction model (VECM), the empirical results show that these variables are cointegrated. The study shows that a combination of opening the Eurozone countries for trade and fostering their financial and economic development have elevated inflows of foreign direct investment into the region in the long run. At the same time, increasing inflows of foreign direct investment in the short run have propelled economic growth, which in return has strengthened the role of financial development and international trade to sustain economic growth in the region through feedback effects. The empirical results have important policy implications for countries in the Eurozone, especially those who face challenges as a result of lack of confidence in their financial system and those who face a sovereign debt crisis.     

Export-led growth and the Four Little Dragons

This paper examines the hypothesis of export-led growth for the ‘Four Little Dragons' in Asia. The framework of analysis is a five-variable vector autoregressive model. The relationship between exports and output is evaluated through the computation of variance decompositions, impulse response functions, and cointegration. The variance decompositions indicate significant feedback relations between exports and output. The impulse response functions indicate significant, positive feedback effects in the short run. The cointegration test, however, does not yield similar results for the long-run relations. The results are at odds with the export-led growth hypothesis, but the short-run results appear consistent with the feedback model in which export promotion and economic growth reinforce each other in the process of economic development.     

The relationship between trade openness and economic growth: Some new insights on the openness measurement issue

Empirical results on the links between trade openness and economic growth often suggest that, in the long run, more outward‐oriented countries register better economic growth. However, a similar level of trade openness can hide different types of trade structures. The aim of this paper was to enrich the way of measuring trade openness taking into account two different dimensions of countries’ integration in world trade: export quality and export variety. Based on the estimation of an endogenous growth model on a panel of 169 countries between 1988 and 2014 using a generalised method of moments estimator, our results confirm that countries exporting higher quality products and new varieties grow more rapidly. More importantly, we find a non‐linear pattern between the export ratio and the quality of the export basket, suggesting that openness to trade may impact growth negatively for countries which are specialised in low‐quality products. A non‐linear relationship between export variety, the export ratio and growth is also found, suggesting that countries increasing their exports will grow more rapidly after reaching a certain degree of the extensive margin of exports.     

中国碳排放量与外商直接投资的互动机制——基于1994～2009年数据的实证研究

20世纪90年代以来,中国境内的外商直接投资金额不断增加,外资对中国经济的拉动作用日趋明显。然而,外商直接投资也带来了严重的碳排放量增加与环境污染问题。文章根据1994～2009年的相关数据,计算了该时期中国的碳排放量,并利用计量经济模型检验了中国碳排放量与外商直接投资之间的关系。结果表明,二者之间存在协整关系,中国碳排放量与外商直接投资互为格兰杰因果关系,从长期来看,外商直接投资的增多将加大中国的碳排放量。     

The Causal Relationship Between Information and Communication Technology and Foreign Direct Investment

This paper investigates the simultaneous causal relationship between investments in information and communication technology (ICT) and flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), with reference to its implications on economic growth. For the empirical analysis we use data from 23 major countries with heterogeneous economic development for the period 1976–99. Our causality test results suggest that there is a causal relationship from ICT to FDI in developed countries, which means that a higher level of ICT investment leads to an increase inflow of FDI. ICT may contribute to economic growth indirectly by attracting more FDI. Contrarily, we could not find significant causality from ICT to FDI in developing countries. Instead, we have partial evidence of opposite causality relationship: the inflow of FDI causes further increases in ICT investment and production capacity.