不同国家债务对经济运行的影响

债务尤其是政府债务越来越受到关注,对政府债务的经济影响争论犹存。每个国家的经济基础与国民财富状况各异,从而其政府债务对经济的影响也不尽相同。文章通过对发展中国家如中国的情况进行实证分析,与发达国家如美国和贫穷国家如非洲的情况相比较,来阐述政府债务对不同发展阶段的经济体所产生的影响。     

国债规模之我见

从1998年开始实施的以国债政策为主体的积极财政政策对我国经济发展功不可没。但是国债规模的日益扩大最终也可能产生其负面影响,因此对国债规模的研究日益受到我国经济学界和财政学界的广泛重视。同时,对国债规模的大小也是争论不休,存在的分歧较大。本文从对国债规模指标体     

Insolvency Reform and the Indonesian Financial Crisis

Treatments of Indonesia's financial crisis customarily focus on exchange rate collapse, neglecting the question of why enterprises were so highly leveraged beforehand. This article reviews controlling shareholder-debtor behaviour both before and during the crisis. It then examines Indonesia's emergency bankruptcy legislation effective August 1998—which enjoys a mixed record in implementation—and articulates bankruptcy policy principles for the replacement legislation now being drafted. Progress on the insolvency front has been limited to a relatively small number of voluntary debt reorganisations. Early indications are that such restructurings largely take the form of debt rescheduling rather than debt-equity swaps, loan write-offs, or other approaches that would lessen enterprises' heavy leveraging. This outcome reflects problems in creditor as well as debtor preferences. What began as a private sector insolvency problem increasingly overlaps with efforts to address general banking sector difficulties. Further, nationalism questions complicate the resolution of insolvencies.     

Union and Debt: Evidence from Chinese Private Firms

Do unions really matter in China? Using a dataset containing more than 110 thousand Chinese private manufacturing firms, this paper is the first attempt to examine how unions' bargaining power affects firms' capital structures. We find that: (1) the firms' debt levels are often positively associated with their unions' bargaining powers; (2) when a firm is in financial distress, the management is more likely to issue more debt to strengthen its bargaining power against the union and increase its residual income; (3) compared with long-term debt, short-term debt is a better option for the management to increase its bargaining power and residual income. Our research indicates that the unions of private Chinese firms are an important policy instrument for the management rather than useless decorations, which provides valuable insights for us to understand the employee–employer relations and firms' capital structures in emerging economies.     

Nominal debt and inflation stabilization

The “fiscal theory of currency crises” ( Daniel 2001 ; Corsetti and Ma?kowiak 2005, 2006 ) claims that with long‐term nominal debt, a government can delay the timing of an inevitable currency crisis that results from a fiscal shock. The present paper shows that, in contrast, long‐term nominal debt might have destabilizing effects when a government introduces an inflation stabilization policy. It is shown that a stabilization policy that is successful in the absence of long‐term nominal debt can cause a crisis when long‐term nominal debt exists. The model implies that a government with a large stock of long‐term nominal debt must overcome a high fiscal hurdle for a successful stabilization policy. This difficulty is avoidable if long‐term debt is indexed to inflation.     

Transforming Central Bank Liabilities into Government Debt: The Case of China

Where policy has substantially increased central bank assets, the corresponding liabilities present an opportunity to increase the breadth, depth and liquidity of the government bond market. In China's case, transformed illiquid central bank liabilities could double or triple the stock of government bonds. Central bank liabilities can be transformed into government bonds either through the government's purchase of foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank or by the government overfunding its borrowing requirement and depositing the proceeds in the central bank. The overfunding approach is preferred if, for financial stability reasons, it is judged prudent to leave the central bank with sufficient resources to serve itself as lender of last resort in foreign currency to the banking system. In the case of China, public debt consolidation could also contribute to further liberalizing the Chinese banking system, wider international use of the renminbi and more balanced holdings of key currency government bonds.     

从债权国到债务国——美国国际债务模式转变的逻辑分析

国际债务危机最初都是起源于发展中国家,发展中国家是国际债务人。进入21世纪,国际债务模式呈现出新的变化,国际债务危机从"外围"向"中心"扩散;债务危机的形式由公司债务危机向主权债务危机转变,美国由原来世界最大债权国转变成为世界最大债务国,中国作为发展中国家已成为世界债权大国。美国国际债务模式转变的内在逻辑直接反映出发达国家利用债务对实施开放经济的发展中国家进行利益转移。中国作为债权国面临着诸多挑战,维护债权国利益是当务之急。     

国债利率对债务稳定性影响的理论与实证研究

文章首先概括了1981年至2003年我国发行国债所引起的债务负担情况,并分析了国债利率与债务关系的相关理论模型。然后在推导多马国债模型的基础上,实证分析了我国自1981年以来国债发行利率对债务稳定性的影响的定量关系。分析表明:当国债利率高于经济增长率时,国债所引起的债务     

Devaluation,Debt, and Default in Emerging Economies

We explore the interactions between exchange rate and fiscal policy, and default on external debt. Exchange rate policy affects the supply of short-term debt facing the government. Under a conventional soft peg, it can be optimal for the government to set the exchange rate at a level in which partial default occurs. In this case multiple equilibria exist, with one featuring high interest rate, overvalued exchange rate, low level of output, and default. Default is also an equilibrium under a hard peg, precisely because devaluation is not an option. Under a hard peg, however, there is a unique equilibrium.

维护中国外汇储备的价值

目前的世界金融危机，很可能使中国持有的许多债券甚至美国的政府债券连本金都无法收回。外汇储备的境外资金流入，降低了中国国内资金的回报率，控制了一个个中国产业。应采取三项措施：只要中国还没有出现对外贸易逆差，就严格禁止国外资金流入；立即对资本项目下对外资金往来实行集中计划控制，管制资金汇出；对中国外汇储备中外国债务人违约，不还本付息，中国政府可强行以债务人所属国在中国的所有金融权益抵偿中国外汇储备受到的损失。必要时可抛售其相应国家的债券。     

Liquidity Risk and Banks' Asset Composition: Implications for Monetary Policy

Monetary growth models in which the government is a net debtor demonstrate that inflation adversely affects capital formation through the crowding out effect. Interestingly, the results are at odds with empirical evidence. In particular, recent studies point to an asymmetric relationship between inflation and the real economy across countries. Specifically, inflation and output are negatively correlated in poor countries. In contrast, inflation is associated with higher levels of economic activity in advanced economies. I present a monetary growth model with public debt, where the exposure to risk is inversely related to the level of income. In this setting, I demonstrate that the effects of monetary policy depend on the level of capital of the economy. In poor countries, banks' portfolios consist primarily of government liabilities. Therefore, a higher rate of money creation inhibits capital formation in these economies. In contrast, banks devote more resources toward productive uses in advanced countries. Consequently, monetary policy generates a Tobin effect.     

Covid-19, Economic Growth and South African Fiscal Policy

Following years of fast-rising debt levels, we show that the Covid-19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov-switching model. Following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.     

市场化、债务融资与环境信息披露

当前,政府以信贷政策促进企业披露环境信息的理念初步形成,推进环境信息公开已成为政府工作的重要内容之一。论文以2010—2012年沪深石化塑胶行业A股上市公司为样本,采用相关分析、回归分析等方法对市场化、债务融资与环境信息披露进行研究,旨在探讨不同市场化地区债务融资与环境信息披露的相关性,为信贷政策的制定与落实提供经验证据。结果显示债务融资与企业的环境信息披露正相关、市场化与环境信息披露正相关,对于高市场化进程地区的企业而言,其债务融资比例与环境信息披露水平之间的正相关关系比低市场化进程地区的企业更显著。     

FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY AND THE FISCAL REACTION FUNCTION FOR SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT OF THE PAST AND FUTURE POLICY APPLICATIONS

How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating this question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (ordinary least squares, threshold autoregressive, state‐space modelling and vector error‐correction model). This paper finds that since 1946, the South African government has run sustainable fiscal policy by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, this paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.     

非标债权业务与银行债务风险

本文基于2007-2018年我国商业银行面板数据,建立面板数据模型,实证研究了非标债权资产对银行债务风险影响.研究表明:自有资金或第三方理财导致非标债权资产占比上升会显著提升银行债务风险.导致结果的原因不是信息不透明,而是因为资源禀赋.禀赋较差的地方性银行通过非标债权业务实现金融资源的跨区对接,此举显著提高了它的债务风险.为解决内生性问题,本文分别采用银行所在地区、类型相同等其他银行非标债权资产占比平均值为工具变量的2SLS,进一步证实了上述观点.本文研究结论有助于建立更加公平的银行竞争市场.     

地方政府债务对经济增长的影响——基于债务规模与债务结构的双重视角

在提出测算地方政府隐性债务新方法的基础上,基于所测算的数据,从债务规模和债务结构的双重视角,全面分析地方政府债务对经济增长的影响。结果表明:就债务规模而言,当地方政府债务率相对较低时,增加债务有助于促进经济增长,但是当地方政府债务率相对较高时,进一步增加债务对经济增长的推动作用将会减弱。就债务结构而言,当地方政府的隐性债务占比过高时,地方政府债务的扩张会对经济增长产生更为显著的负向影响,这主要是因为隐性债务对民间投资的挤出作用更强。因此,防范与化解地方政府债务风险,不应采取"一刀切"的策略,而应从债务规模和债务结构两个视角综合考量,为各地量身打造防范与化解债务风险的最优策略。     

Fiscal Consolidation and the Public Sector Balance Sheet in South Africa

Between 1994 and 2008 the South African government reduced its debt/GDP ratio from almost 50% to 27%. Unfortunately this reduction was accompanied by a significant decrease in government's fixed capital/GDP ratio from 90% to 55% – fiscal sustainability might have been restored, but government's balance sheet did not improve. A similar story can be told for State Owned Enterprises. Since the Great Recession the fiscal situation worsened markedly – the public debt ratio again approaches 50%. To restore fiscal sustainability this article suggests that the government faces two options: (1) to create room for future countercyclical policy, the government must cut current expenditure and reduce the public debt/GDP ratio to its pre‐crisis level, or (2) substitute much‐needed infrastructure capital expenditure for current expenditure while stabilising the debt/GDP ratio at its post‐crisis level. Given that the much lower fixed capital/GDP ratio inhibits economic growth, the latter option might be more sensible.     

Village Governance,Community Life,and the 2014 Village Law in Indonesia

In January 2014, the government of Indonesia issued Law 6/2014 on Villages, primarily to address weaknesses in the decentralisation paradigm by improving governance arrangements and shifting resources to a level of government less captured by special interests. Using longitudinal data from 40 Indonesian villages in the three Local Level Institutions studies, fielded in 1996, 2001, and 2012, we investigate the effects that prior policy has had on village life and identify the likely implications of the 2014 law on village governance. We focus on shifts in the capacities of and opportunities for local governments to increase their responsiveness to community needs, as well as consider the constraints on these governments. We suggest that there is potential for the law to increase government responsiveness—through a combination of strong financial management systems, new national institutional arrangements, and empowered citizens who can apply pressure on village governments to work in the interests of communities—but that substantial risks and obstacles remain.     

固定汇率制度下的财政政策:开放经济宏观经济学的拓展

本文主要建立在新开放主义宏观经济学理论上,进一步拓展和分析不同财政政策在固定汇率制度下对国民经济的影响,如消费、产出与汇率等。通过引入迭代模型的基本框架从而打破传统的李嘉图等价假设,我们发现因为有限生命代理人把所购买的国债看作是一种净财富,所以通过发行债券融资而导致的政府支出暂时的增加毫无疑问地将会增加本国居民相对于国外居民的消费水平。而另一方面,由于汇率水平固定不变和短期的价格粘性,政府支出增加的部分将平均分配给本国和外国商品。因此,政府支出暂时的增加将会减少本国的净国外资产头寸。而对于货币政策来说,本国居民相对消费水平的增加将导致本国货币升值压力,本国中央银行为了维系固定汇率水平不得不被动地增加货币供给。     

我国地方政府自主发债的制度设计

中国地方政府债务问题已经引起了决策层和国内外经济学家的高度重视,债务规模已经十分庞大。防范和化解地方政府债务风险,解决地方财政资金不足,规范地方政府举债行为,就要赋予地方政府自主发债权,并且明确地方政府自主发债的制度设计,制定一套包括发行主体、发行规模、发行利率、发行期限、发行方式等在内的规范、科学的制度。