Armington Elasticities and Tariff Regime: An Application to European Union Rice Imports

The European Union’s (EU) import sources for rice include developing countries and least developed countries (LDCs). The EU has made a commitment to allow duty‐free and quota‐free access to rice imports originating in the LDCs from September 2009 onward. The purpose of this article is to answer two questions: (1) does the inclusion of import tariffs lead to different estimated Armington elasticities? (2) when a discriminating tariff is introduced, what happens to the market share of large rice exporters to the EU, especially of poor countries? We present the Armington model, derived from a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function, and a non‐homothetic CES utility functional form, which is more flexible. We then estimate the Armington model, with and without the inclusion of a tariff, and we compare the elasticities. Lastly, we model five scenarios with different discriminated import tariff rates to calculate the changes in the market access of large rice exporters to the EU. Our empirical results show the importance of non‐homothetic preferences and import tariffs. Ignoring import tariffs and the non‐homothetic parameter may produce results which are biased and of uncertain validity. Furthermore, the simulation findings demonstrate that, in spite of a large difference between import tariff rate of Suriname and other countries (scenario V), its market access would not change greatly. This may be caused by supply side problems like poor infrastructures, weak technology and small capacity production in LDCs.     

Trade diversion and antidumping effectiveness: insights from a residual demand model

A residual demand model is developed to predict the likely effects of an antidumping duty in the presence of trade diversion. A key insight is that the ability of an AD duty to increase the welfare of producers in the country imposing the duty hinges on the import supply elasticity for product from non‐named sources. The only instance in which this is not true is when supply for product from the named source is perfectly elastic. In this case, the welfare gain to domestic producers is maximised irrespective of the supply elasticity for imports from non‐named sources. A comparison of the residual demand model with the Armington model suggests the latter significantly understates both trade diversion and domestic producer gains from the duty.     

The use of organized commodity markets to manage food import price instability and risk

The article explores the possibility of insuring the price risks of wheat and maize imports of low‐income food‐deficit countries (LIFDCs). Optimal strategies for an importing agent, who hedges with futures and options are derived, based on the objective of minimizing the unpredictability of import bills. Ex post simulations for a set of LIFDCs are run on wheat and maize imports hedged with futures and options in the Chicago Board of Trade, to explore the extent to which hedging reduces the unpredictability in import bills. Simulations encompass both periods of normal price behavior, as well as the period of global upheaval that occurred in 2007 and 2008. Results show that hedging with futures alone affords agents considerable opportunities for reducing import cost unpredictability, and the same holds with options, albeit, to a lesser extent. However, during the recent price spike of 2007–2008, hedging with options would have increased the unpredictability of some countries’ maize import bills, due to the combination of erratic import patterns and pronounced market uncertainty.     

Welfare impacts of import controls on Botswana's horticulture

Botswana has, for the past two decades, used import controls (permits) to regulate horticultural imports, and thereby promote economic diversification through import substitution. This article estimates import demand equations to capture the impact of import controls on horticultural imports (oranges, potatoes, and onions) into Botswana, using data for 1974 to 2001. Parameter estimates are used to compute nominal protection rates (NPRs) and welfare effects. Model‐generated NPRs are estimated at 191%, 75%, and 109% for oranges, potatoes, and onions, respectively. Imports of oranges, potatoes, and onions declined by 32%, 29%, and 35%, respectively, due to the implementation of import controls. Over time consumer losses and quota rents rose while producer gains declined. Net social losses also increased, implying that import controls became increasingly burdensome. It is argued that import controls have not been very effective in promoting import substitution. The study is important for the trade liberalization debate in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and within the Southern African Development Community (SADC), where import permits and other nontariff barriers are pervasive, have proliferated, and are a major hindrance to intraregional trade.     

The price stabilization effects of the EU entry price scheme for fruit and vegetables

The article assesses the stabilization effects of the EU import regime for fresh fruit and vegetables based on the entry price system (EPS). The analysis is carried out on the EU prices of tomatoes and lemons and those of imports from some of the main competing countries on the EU domestic markets: Morocco, Argentina, and Turkey. It is based on the estimation of a threshold vector autoregressive econometric model that is shown capable of taking the workings of the import regime into account. The model shows that prices behave differently when import prices are above/below the trigger entry price. This article allowed to highlight the cases for which the isolation effect of EPS seems reached and the resulting stabilization effects.     

The Heterogeneous Effects of Standards on Agricultural Trade Flows

This article uses a theory‐based translog gravity model to investigate the heterogeneous effects of food standards on aggregate agricultural trade. We revisit the ‘standards‐as‐barriers‐to‐trade’ debate with a distinctive twist. In contrast to existing works, we show that standards reduce trade but even more so for countries that trade smaller volumes. Our identification strategy exploits the within‐country variation in specific trade concerns. We confirm that stricter importer standards are indeed trade‐restrictive. However, the estimated trade cost elasticity varies depending on how intensively two countries trade. Specifically, it decreases in magnitude with an increasing import share of the exporter in the importing country's total imports. The reason is simple but intuitive; bigger trading partners find it more profitable to invest in meeting the costs of importer‐specific standards. This work is novel in showing that the standards–trade debate misses out on an important heterogeneity driven by existing import shares. Liberalising non‐tariff measures will favour smaller trading partners more than well‐established ones.     

US—Mexico fresh vegetable trade: the effects of trade liberalization and economic growth

Studies of US‐Mexico vegetable trade have generally emphasized the importance of US tariffs in determining the competitive advantage of US producers. Even so, research has identified at least four factors related primarily to the different levels of economic development in the US and Mexico that also have important effects on US‐Mexico agricultural trade in general and fresh vegetable trade in particular. These include the differential growth rates of US and Mexican real wages, production technology (yields), and per capita income as well as cyclical movements in the real Mexican Peso/US Dollar exchange rate. This study examines the relative contribution of NAFTA and the development‐related factors to likely future changes in US fresh vegetable imports from Mexico. The analysis employs an econometric simulation model of US and Mexican markets for five fresh vegetables (tomatoes, cucumbers, squash, bell peppers, and onions) accounting for 80% of US fresh vegetable imports. The results suggest that the 1994–1995 Peso devaluation rather than NAFTA was primarily responsible for the sharp increase in US imports of Mexican vegetables observed in the first years following the implementation of NAFTA. Over time, however, the results suggest that differences in the growth rates of US and Mexican production yields and, to a lesser extent, of US and Mexican real incomes and/or real wage rates could plausibly contribute more to the future growth of US tomato, squash, and onion imports from Mexico than the trade liberalizing effects of NAFTA.     

中国木材进口的可替代性和进口来源安全性分析

基于2008—2017年中国与常年贸易伙伴国的数据样本,运用面板数据估计方法分别测算了国产原木、锯材与进口原木、锯材之间的Armington替代弹性,并分三阶段分组检验,还测算了中国原木、锯材主要进口来源国的出口产出弹性。结果显示:国产原木、锯材与进口原木、锯材之间具有较低的可替代性,且可替代性均呈下降趋势;内外材差异化程度较大,对国外进口木材具有长期的进口依赖性;原木进口市场供给风险较大,新西兰、澳大利亚供给安全性强,美国、巴布亚新几内亚、俄罗斯进口风险大;锯材进口市场的供给较稳定,泰国、巴西和马来西亚等国供给潜力大。因此,中国应大力发展培育国内优质大径材和珍贵树材,建设培育基地,提高优质木材供给能力;寻找珍贵木材的替代材料,通过技术开发生产替代产品;加强境外森林资源的开发利用,调整木材进口来源,减少对高风险国家的进口依赖。     

中国原木进口与国际原木非法贸易问题的若干思考

在分析认识中国木材供需矛盾问题的基础上,对中国的原木进口和国际非法采伐加剧原木非法贸易之间的关系进行了探讨。中国原木进口依存度高,非法原木进口防范程度低,缺乏应有的进口门槛,行业自律机制不健全,给非法原木贸易提供了机会。为进一步探讨国际反原木非法贸易对中国原木进口需求的影响,文章采用差异化进口需求模型方法,分析了国际打击原木非法贸易背景下中国原木进口需求的相关数量变化关系。研究结果表明,中国的原木进口正在朝着理性的方向进展,来自美国、新西兰的原木进口比重日益增加而来自非法原木高危国的原木进口日益减少。基于研究提出中国应提高自身的生产能力以及完善合法认证体系,降低原木的进口依赖,同时发挥大国作用,一起推动非法原木高危国的木材合法认证体系的发展。     

R&D policies for desalination technologies

In many arid and semi‐arid regions whether or not to desalinate seawater has long been a non‐issue and policy debates are focused on the timing and extent of the desalination activities. We analyze how water scarcity and demand structure, on the one hand, and cost reduction via R&D programs, on the other hand, affect the desirable development of desalination technologies and the time profiles of fresh and desalinated water supplies. We show that the optimal R&D policy is of a non‐standard most rapid approach path (NSMRAP) type, under which the state of desalination technology — the accumulated learning from R&D efforts — should approach a pre‐specified target process as rapidly as possible and proceed along it thereafter. The NSMRAP property enables a complete characterization of the optimal water policy. The renewable nature of the fresh water stock permits a non‐monotonic behavior of the optimal stock process: under certain conditions, the stock is depleted, to be fully or partly) refilled at a later date.     

Supplier-Retailer Relationships in the UK Fresh Produce Supply Chain

Abstract

Over the past decade, the UK fresh produce (fruit, vegetables, and salads) supply chain has undergone numerous changes, with retailers becoming increasingly powerful. The overall trend is towards the industry being dominated by a few large corporations operating on a national level, with some corporations even operating on a European or global scale. This process, which could significantly impact on the supplierretailer relationships, is examined in this study using indepth interviews with participants from the fresh produce supply chain. Amongst the findings are the following: Supply chain advancements, including backhauling, and factory gate pricing are causing some controversy because suppliers feel that these initiatives do not benefit their relationships with retailers. There is room for supplierretailer relationship improvement in areas such as trust, co-operation, and collaboration. Retailers, who have significant supply chain power, are starting to acknowledge the importance of suppliers in the gaining of gaining retail market share. Lastly, the intense process of supplychain rationalisation that we have seen in recent years appears to be leveling out in the UK fresh produce supply, such that there is less anticipated further rationalisation. The study outlines a series of recommendations for how suppliers (retailers) can improve their relationships with retailers (suppliers).     

基于Rotterdam模型的中国热带农产品进口市场格局研究

目的 为把握热带农产品进口市场格局和供给效率,对中国热带农产品进口的市场竞争关系进行研究。方法 文章基于1992—2020年中国热带农产品进口贸易数据,以木薯、天然橡胶、咖啡和胡椒为研究对象,运用Rotterdam模型估计测算这4种热带农产品进口市场各来源国的进口需求弹性,实证分析中国热带农产品进口市场格局。结果 （1）中国热带农产品的进口来源较为集中,对泰国、越南、印度尼西亚、马来西亚等东盟国家的进口依赖程度相对较高;（2）木薯主要来源国之间的竞争性不强,中国对木薯有稳定的进口需求和进口来源地;（3）天然橡胶、咖啡和胡椒的进口来源国之间呈现出不同程度的市场竞争关系;（4）未来中国热带农产品进口需求对东盟国家依赖将进一步加深。结论 中国应充分把握双边贸易关系,重新审视并完善与东盟国家及地区农业国际合作战略,不断促进热带农产品进口来源地和贸易渠道的多元化,以保障热带农产品贸易安全。     

The Effectiveness of Antidumping Measures: Some Evidence for Farmed Atlantic Salmon

Counterfactual simulations of a partial equilibrium model of the world salmon market suggest safeguard tariffs imposed by the European Commission on salmon imports from Norway, Chile, and the Faroe Islands would do more to punish producers in the named exporting countries than to reward United Kingdom producers. The reason is that export supply is less elastic than import demand on a bilateral basis, which means that most of the tariff's incidence is borne by the targeted producers rather than EU consumers. The incidence problem is exacerbated by the feed quota (now biomass limit) that Norway uses to limit its production. A marketing fee that expands market demand is shown to be less distortionary than its tariff equivalent, and thus may be preferred from a second‐best perspective.     

Appraising agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation potentials: effects of alternative assumptions

There is interest in society in general and in the agricultural and forestry sectors concerning a land‐based role in greenhouse gas mitigation reduction. Numerous studies have estimated the potential supply schedules at which agriculture and forestry could produce greenhouse gas offsets. However, such studies vary widely in critical assumptions regarding economic market adjustments, allowed scope of mitigation alternatives, and region of focus. Here, we examine the effects of using different assumptions on the total emission mitigation supply curve from agriculture and forestry in the United States. To do this we employ the U.S.‐based Agricultural Sector and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Model and find that variations in such factors can have profound effects on the results. Differences between commonly employed methods shift economic mitigation potentials from –55 to + 85%. The bias is stronger at higher carbon prices due to afforestation and energy crop plantations that reduce supply of traditional commodities. Lower carbon prices promote management changes with smaller impacts on commodity supply.     

Tariff equivalents of nontariff measures: the case of European horticultural and fish imports from African countries

In the context of the Partnership Agreements between the European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean, and Pacific countries, this study estimates ad valorem tariff equivalents of European food safety standards on imports of key horticultural and fish products from Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. The study uses an extension of the price‐wedge method to account for imperfect substitution and factor endowment in monopolistic competition. The estimated tariff equivalents are 55% and 98% for imports of fresh peas from Zambia to the Netherlands and the U.K., respectively. They range from 39% to 64% for imports of green beans and avocados from Kenya and from 63% to 270% for imports of frozen fish fillets in EU countries from the East African Community. We also observe large variations in tariff equivalents for the horticultural and fish products over time and EU importing countries.     

Exports and governance: the role of private voluntary agrifood standards

The empirical evidence that institutional differences across countries affect bilateral trade is robust. The crucial question remains how countries can enhance trade amid these differences. In this article, we measure the degree to which governance and institutions differ between countries as “governance distance.” Using a sample of EU/EFTA imports, we examine how adopting private agrifood safety standards modify the effect of governance distance on exports of fruits and vegetables, in particular apples, bananas, and grapes, within a structural gravity framework. Our results show that while increasing governance distance hinders bilateral trade, the interaction of standards and the governance distance is positively associated with exports, hence partially offsetting the direct trade‐inhibiting effects of the latter. GlobalGAP certified countries see the trade‐inhibiting effects of governance distance on their exports reduced by about 50%, ceteris paribus.     

Analysis of a supply-control program under uncertainty and imperfect competition: Chinese cabbage in Taiwan

Researchers have often attributed the farm–wholesale price spread, after adjusting for marketing costs, as compensation for marketing firms' risk bearing. However, price spreads in excess of marketing costs can also be due to marketing firms' exercise of market power. In settings where both imperfect competition and marketer risk aversion are plausible, a modeling framework must be sufficiently general to accommodate both types of behavior. This article develops and estimates such a model in the context of fresh produce marketing and develops the implications for analysis of supply‐control programs. The model is applied to the production and marketing of Chinese cabbage in Taiwan and specifically to the analysis of supply‐control programs implemented in this industry by the Taiwanese government. The empirical results provide little support for the hypothesis that marketing firms exhibit risk averse behavior, but they do show that marketing firms exercise oligopsony power in procurement of the product from farmers, and that this power is positively related to the quantity supplied in each market period. This provides a heretofore unexplored impetus for supply controls intended to raise producer incomes. However, such controls are also rendered less effective by imperfect competition because marketing firms capture part of the benefits from supply reduction.     

Non-parametric estimation of decision makers' risk aversion

A new non‐parametric method to estimate a decision maker's coefficient of absolute risk aversion from observed economic behaviour is explained. The method uses the expected value‐variance (E‐V) framework and quadratic programming. An empirical illustration is given using Norwegian farm‐level data.     

Social welfare effects of removing multiple exchange rates: evidence from the rice trade in Iran

In order to encourage the involvement of the private sector in importing rice, the Iranian government plans to relax the system of multiple foreign exchange rates applied to importers wishing to supply the domestic market. In this article, the welfare effects of removing the current controls on the rice trade, and a domestic rice coupon program, are evaluated by applying a partial equilibrium analysis to 1961–1999 data. The results show that, as far as foreign exchange is concerned, liberalization of the rice market causes an increase in rice imports, mainly due to a decrease in domestic supply. In welfare terms, the loss in producer surplus from rice market liberalization is relatively high, but most rice consumers, and the Iranian taxpayer, would gain. Overall, gains to consumers and taxpayers are estimated to be higher than the losses incurred by domestic suppliers, and therefore net social welfare at national level can be improved by rice market liberalization in Iran. Issues for further discussion include residual food security roles for the state, and supply‐side adjustments in terms of resource use and higher‐quality production.     

Estimating the U.S. Import Demand for Melons: A Dynamic Analysis Approach

The United States is one of the world's leading consumers as well as one of the world's leading producers of melons. However, U.S. melons are produced only from May through December. In order to supplement the domestic demand and make melons available year-round, the United States imports melons from Latin American countries. This article analyzes the U.S. demand for imported fresh and frozen melons using monthly data on import volumes and values. A static and a dynamic linear Almost Ideal Demand System are estimated using Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR). The estimated parameters are used to estimate the short- and long-run price and expenditure elasticities.