Software for Learning and for Doing Statistics

The community of statisticians and statistics educators should take responsibility for the evaluation and improvement of software quality from the perspective of education. The paper will develop a perspective, an ideal system of requirements to critically evaluate existing software and to produce future software more adequate both for learning and doing statistics in introductory courses. Different kinds of tools and microworlds are needed. After discussing general requirements for such programs, a prototypical ideal software system will be presented in detail. It will be illustrated how such a system could be used to construct learning environments and to support elementary data analysis with exploratory working style.     

“集约”创造新的空间

去年以来，党中央和国务院从民族的长远利益出发，从经济可持续发展和构建和谐社会出发，十分明确地提出了坚守18亿亩耕地的红线不能突破的目标要求，并作了一系列重大部署。     

Techniques for defining geographic boundaries for health regions

Many federal and state programs require the geographic partitioning of states into regions for health services planning, monitoring, and/or administration. A common consideration for such programs is that region boundaries should be drawn so as to maximize the proportion of the state's population that receives health care services in its region of residence. Defining region boundaries thus may be viewed as a problem of partitioning a set of N small areal units (e.g. counties) into M subsets (regions) so as to minimize interactions (patient flow) among subsets. This paper describes three algorithms for region design and compares them in terms of computer-processing efficiency and solution value based on results from a number of test cases. Application of two of the algorithms, one based on the greedy heuristic and the other incorporating a max-flow/min-cut procedure, to a problem of dividing a metropolitan region into separate service areas for clusters of hospitals is also described.     

A model for predicting determinants factors for NEETs rates: Support for the decision-makers

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the determining factors of the high levels of NEETs both in EU member states and in partner countries, to support policy steering and increase socio-economic cohesion. The use of longitudinal data (2005–2020) from Eurostat and World Bank databases and selected and the testing of a number of 19 factors likely to influence the rate of NEETs show us that the effectiveness of public policy solutions focused on this category of population increases when complex factors and not singular elements are targeted. From a methodological point of view, we will use MARS models and fixed effects panel models. To account for countries’ heterogeneity, these models are applied to homogeneous groups of countries, identified through cluster analysis. Social cohesion and sustainability measures for policy steering have higher chances if the action of the responsible institutions targets both meso and macro levels, if it acts not only on a factor but also on the causes that favor its manifestation. Our analysis demonstrated that the measures aimed at increasing the chances of NEETs in order to facilitate their access to education, the labor market, and social inclusion must be coordinated with those of support for combating poverty and any type of exclusion, the support given to employers (subsidizing jobs, for example), the family and the community to which the young person belongs or local authorities. Also, the research results show us that there are more common elements between countries when we analyze the factors likely to increase the rate of NEETs than when we focus on their analysis by geographical criteria, based on EU membership status or EU partner status, etc.     

人才战没有国界

2003年12月19日至20日,中共中央、国务院在北京召开全国人才工作会议.中共中央总书记、国家主席胡锦涛在会上发表重要讲话. 他强调,实施人才强国战略,是抓住和用好重要战略机遇期、应对日益激烈的国际竞争的必然要求,是全面建设小康社会、开创中国特色社会主义事业新局面的必然要求,是增强党的执政能力、巩固党的执政地位的必然要求.     

Going for Gold: Atlanta's Bid for Fame

This article explores the importance of image to the Atlanta Olympic Games of 1996. It suggests that the event must be seen as an example of the use of the propagation of selected images designed to boost the standing of the city in an increasingly competitive interurban environment. The intersection of major sporting spectacles, big business and vastly increased television coverage provides an important new medium through which boosterists can put their city on the world map. However, as the Atlanta case reveals, the ‘semiotics of the successful city‘ involves a highly ideological construction which often presents urban areas as conflict‐free zones. In Atlanta, potentially negative images were removed both physically and symbolically from the urban landscape, while the actual experience of the Games suggested that the city had some way to go in material terms to match its often hyperbolic self‐promotion. The article suggests that the staging of events such as the Olympics is a necessarily high‐risk venture for cities, one that, as in the case of Atlanta, may not have been ultimately worth the effort. Cet article examine l'importance de l'image dans le cadre des Jeux Olympiques d'Atlanta de 1996. Il propose de considérer l'événement comme un exemple de la diffusion d'images sélectionnées, conçues et utilisées afin de promouvoir la réputation de la ville dans un contexte interurbain de plus en plus concurrentiel. L'intersection entre des spectacles sportifs exceptionnels, de grandes entreprises et une couverture télévisuelle considérablement étendue constitue un moyen novateur grâce auquel les promoteurs de cette dynamique peuvent positionner leur ville sur la carte du monde. Cependant, comme le montre le cas d'Atlanta, la ‘sémiotique d'une ville gagnante’ implique une construction idéologique très forte qui présente souvent les zones urbaines comme des espaces non conflictuels. À Atlanta, les images à potentiel négatif ont étééliminées à la fois physiquement et symboliquement du paysage urbain, tandis que les Jeux eux‐mêmes laissaient à penser que la ville devait progresser sur le plan matériel si elle voulait correspondre à son auto‐promotion souvent hyperbolique. L'article suggère que la mise en scène d'événements tels que les Jeux Olympiques est une opération nécessairement très risquée pour des villes, opération qui, à l'instar de l'expérience d'Atlanta, peut finalement ne pas justifier les efforts réalisés.     

基于决策有用性的财务报告方式选择

决策有用性是会计信息披露的目标,而决策有用的前提是会计信息应具有可靠性和相关性。可靠性和相关性犹如鱼和熊掌一样,往往不可兼得。以信息观或计量观为基础的财务报告方式在满足可靠性和相关性的程度上存在着差异。文章从财务报告的信息观和计量观的角度,分析了财务报告方式选择的条件,并提出了提高会计信息有用性的几点建议。     

服装企业品牌延伸策略分析

品牌延伸是企业利用其品牌资产来维护或扩大市场占有率的一种发展战略。品牌延伸作为服装企业赢得竞争优势的重要策略，一直以来都受到国内外服装界的广泛重视。文章主要对服装品牌延伸的前提、时机及途径等作出分析，并提出服装品牌的发展策略。     

Motives for Intergenerational Transfers: New Test for Exchange

The question of motives for private transfers is one with important policy implications. The evidence from empirical literature has been mixed. This study proposes new tests and evidence of the “exchange motive.” It examines the key assumption on which the exchange motive model is built: that a donor's behavior is determined by his/her own expectation of receiving inter‐vivos transfers or bequests in return. Results from national data show that adult children's time transfers to their aging parents were positively associated with their expectation of inter‐vivos financial transfers, but not with their expectation of receiving bequests.     

服装企业品牌延伸策略分析

品牌延伸是企业利用其品牌资产来维护或扩大市场占有率的一种发展战略.品牌延伸作为服装企业赢得竞争优势的重要策略,一直以来都受到国内外服装界的广泛重视.文章主要对服装品牌延伸的前提、时机及途径等作出分析,并提出服装品牌的发展策略.     

Distribution-free Approximate Methods for Constructing Confidence Intervals for Quantiles

Quantile estimation is important for a wide range of applications. While point estimates based on one or two order statistics are common, constructing confidence intervals around them, however, is a more difficult problem. This paper has two goals. First, it surveys the numerous distribution-free methods for constructing approximate confidence intervals for quantiles. These techniques can be divided roughly into four categories: using a pivotal quantity, resampling, interpolation, and empirical likelihood methods. Second, a method based on the pivotal quantity that has received limited attention in the past is extended. Comprehensive simulation studies are used to compare performance across methods. The proposed method is simple and performs similarly to linear interpolation methods and a smoothed empirical likelihood method. While the proposed method has slightly wider interval widths, it can be calculated for more extreme quantiles even when there are few observations.     

Change point test for tail index for dependent data

To test for the constancy of tail index, Quintos et al. (Rev Econ Stud 68:633–663, 2001) proposed three types of change point tests for independent and ARCH type sequences. In this paper, we demonstrate that their tests can be successfully extended to a large class of dependent stationary sequences. Further, we designate a time-reverse version of those tests since the original tests produce very low powers in case the tail of distribution gets thinner. A simulation study is implemented for illustration.     

建设项目选址的规划论证

区域重大建设项目选址涉及到区域社会、经济、环境等各个方面,其选址的合理与否关系到区域社会经济的持续、快速、健康发展.科学的分析论证可加强建设项目的可操作性,也可使其规划管理依据更加充分、决策更加科学合理.基于此认识,提出了建设项目选址符合城市规划论证的主要内容,并以330千伏西安西南郊变电站选址为例进行了详细的说明和论述.     

Proposal for calculating regulatory capital requirements for reverse mortgages

In the current context in which many people worry about the sustainability of pension systems, reverse mortgages are gaining popularity because they are a way to supplement elderly people's incomes. However, it is necessary to provide banks with an adequate risk measurement and management procedure for reverse mortgages to increase the commercialization of these products, which will result in greater well-being for the retirement age population. In this paper, we propose a method to measure risk and estimate the regulatory capital requirements for a portfolio of reverse mortgages owned by a financial institution according to Basel II and III. The method considers house price risk, mortality risk and interest rate risk; consequently, regulatory capital requirements need to be computed using a Monte Carlo simulation procedure. The proposed method is general and can accommodate several scenarios for reverse mortgage specifications, including fixed or variable mortgage rates and different income stream schemes (with the lump sum as a particular case). The results for the U.K. show that reverse mortgage providers face higher risk when the lender initially advances a higher amount, with the lump-sum case indicating the highest risk, for relatively younger borrowers, the female population, higher interest rates and floating mortgage rates.     

企业自主品牌创建六法则

品牌象征着财富,标志着品质,积淀着文化,是企业商战中最重要的无形资产.海尔集团CEO张瑞敏说:"没有自主品牌,容易陷入产业链底端".在市场进入品牌竞争阶段,企业若拥有成功自主品牌,就意味着拥有较高的利润和较多的市场份额,对此,中外企业都着力打造.中国加入WTO,面对更加开放的市场越来越多涌入的国际品牌,实施品牌战略,已成为生存和发展的需要.     

Ready for another leap? Making a case for tetrads

Tetrads are more conducive to studying the dynamic nature of supply networks compared to triads. For instance, the balance theory assumes there is equilibrium in the triadic structure when, in fact, relationships are constantly in flux in networks. Tetrads help us examine how a network is embedded in a larger network, how factions or subgroups operate in networks, and how strong and weak ties play out in a network.